The CC Watch... Latest: Who knows?

[endaround]

If they sign Sabatjhia for 6yrs/$150 m it will be sad to see the most loved player become the most hated player in 3 years time.

[Oldcity]

4 years/100 mil is the most I'd go for Sabathia, and I'd offer Sheets either 1 year/15 mil or 2 years/25 mil--probably no higher. Which will mean the Brewers probably won't get either.

[fondybrewfan]

I wonder if they would spend the $25M they intended for Sabathia on other FA's if Sabathia decided to go elsewhere? I would assume they accounted for arbitration raises already when they offered CC $25M a year. I would imagine we could get 2 very good players for a combined $25M if they wanted to.

[Oldcity]

It sounds good, but there isn't much out there in positions the Brewers need. Maybe Derek Lowe or Hank Blalock, but both are risky and would probably be overpaid.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Just a question, if Sabathia is expected to get Santana money why are the Brewers going thru the motions of making a below market offer in terms of dollars??

[Ennder]

Santana gets like $23M per year, it is just for 6 years instead of 4. It is pretty comperable and Santana has a better overall history of success than Sabathia does.

[KCBrewerfan34]

So are you saying 4 years for $100 million is going to be a compeititive offer, or is this the Carlos Lee offer all over again???

[BritInWI]

I wonder if they would spend the $25M they intended for Sabathia on other FA's if Sabathia decided to go elsewhere? I would assume they accounted for arbitration raises already when they offered CC $25M a year. I would imagine we could get 2 very good players for a combined $25M if they wanted to.

Like two more Jeff Suppan's http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

[fondybrewfan]

It sounds good, but there isn't much out there in positions the Brewers need. Maybe Derek Lowe or Hank Blalock, but both are risky and would probably be overpaid.

Another option would be to take on some salary in a trade. Find a team trying to dump salary, that way Melvin may have to give up minimal value for the player if Melvin picks up most if not all of the salary. Not sure which teams are trying to shed payroll at this point and if they would even be a match.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Fondy good thought but with baseballs prosperity you rarely hear of a team dumping salary, not saying its impossible but difficult is probably a better word.

 

 

 

GO BREW

[Ennder]

So are you saying 4 years for $100 million is going to be a compeititive offer, or is this the Carlos Lee offer all over again???

 

Well we gave Lee an offer for what he is worth. The Astros just gave him an offer that they'll regret.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Ennder I understand your reasoning but as it turns out the Lee offer was not competitive, I guess what I'm asking is this whole CC business window dressing or are they going to make an honest attempt to sign him?

 

 

I appreciate your insight

[CportBadger]

Would Milton Bradley be a possibility? His bat could play at 1B and Prince could be moved for pitching.

[brwrsfan]

So how long before we start hearing that we've made an offer...he's considering/possibly rejecting it? I know it's highly unlikely he comes back at all, but we do have some time with exclusive negotiating rights...IMO, if we don't get close to a deal in that timeframe it's all over.

[Ennder]

Ennder I understand your reasoning but as it turns out the Lee offer was not competitive, I guess what I'm asking is this whole CC business window dressing or are they going to make an honest attempt to sign him?

 

 

I appreciate your insight

I think the Santana deal last year pretty clearly set the expected value for Sabathia this year. Santana got around $23M a year and Sabathia expects right around the same I'm sure and if anything slightly less per year. An offer for Sabathia at $25M per year is very reasonable. The difference of course is 6 years vs 4 years but there is no saying that the Brewers won't go to 5 years or 5 years+ option year or something like that. The per year offer is very competitive with expectations though.

[brwrsfan]

Ennder-

 

I think you have a valid point here that hasn't really been considered, or at least discussed. Yes, we're making an offer of 4/100 (probably). But there's nothing that says that's our final offer. I find it hard to believe that if CC comes back and says he'll accept if we take on a 5th year that we would turn that down. We might, but I just find that very hard to believe.

 

I think we're all assuming we wont' be close, and we probably won't money wise. But I'm still not completely buying that he's as good as gone. I have no basis for this, but I tend to actually believe most of what CC was saying at the end of the year, that it wasn't all just good PR and we might actually have a shot in this thing.

 

I'm trying my best not to get any hopes up and I've been preparing for months to read the ticker that reads "CC Sabathia agrees to terms with some other team..." but I can't help it. I'm going to be sad if he leaves.

[KCBrewerfan34]

So does 5 years $125 get this done. We have a 15 day window (or so) to negotiate with him. Would CC possibly take that or is he going to definitely test FA, I guess it would be kind of silly to sign a deal now, it doesn't hurt the player to at least listen to offers.

 

All I know, with him on our side we were legit if we lose him then have to trade from our limited offense to acquire a #1 or #2 that seems like a big step down, or as fans do we just accept the fact the Brew can't compete every year?

[Ennder]

I think we are competitive next year even if Sabathia walks. I have a lot of faith in Gallardo replacing Sheets or Sabathia and not losing a ton of ground. I think our offense underproduced next year. We were like 13th in runs scored and 8th in pitching last year and it wouldn't surprise me a ton to see us something like 8th in runs scored and 10th in pitching or something similar even with Sheets/Sabathia walking.

 

Signing Sabathia helps us a lot for next year of course and I go from thinking we are a competitive team for the wild card to maybe even being favorites for it but I don't see 2009 as a rebuilding year if we can't land him or anything. Sabathia had an amazing run for the Brewers but it isn't like he'll repeat that next year. He'll likely be something like Sheets was for us this year.

[jhart05]

Without a Sheets or Sabathia at the top of the rotation, I don't see how the Brewers even compete for a Wild Card spot.

 

Three of Gallardo, Parra, Bush, or Suppan, would have to have career years for it to happen.

[Invader3K]

Without a Sheets or Sabathia at the top of the rotation, I don't see how the Brewers even compete for a Wild Card spot.

 

Three of Gallardo, Parra, Bush, or Suppan, would have to have career years for it to happen.

I agree. If they can re-sign neither Sheets or Sabathia, they will have to trade for someone like Jake Peavey. Otherwise next year will very much be a "rebuilding" year, but without much rebuilding going on.

[jhart05]

If they go into the season with a rotation of...

 

Gallardo

Parra

Bush

Suppan

McClung?

Villy?

Cappy?

Some 4th or 5th type FA starter??

 

...I just hope they can at least be .500.

[Invader3K]

Well, that's the thing. Gallardo and Capuano (if still around) would both be coming off injuries. I think Gallardo will be fine, but he's still young...you certainly can't expect him to be a dominant #1 type at this point. Bush is OK as a 3-4 type starter. Parra and Suppan were both shaky this past year. Villanueva and McClung would both seem to be most useful in the pen.

 

I would have not much confidence in that rotation as outlined above.

[Ennder]

Without a Sheets or Sabathia at the top of the rotation, I don't see how the Brewers even compete for a Wild Card spot.

 

Three of Gallardo, Parra, Bush, or Suppan, would have to have career years for it to happen.

 

I disagree, /shrug. Gallardo can replace half a year of Sabathia and improvement out of Parra makes up part of the loss of Sheets. Obviously we'd have to bring in someone else or have Capuano come back strong or something for the last spot but I think people overvalue individual players in general. Sheets and Sabathia were roughly 10 wins over replacement on the year leaving us as an 80 win team without them. Assume Gallardo and an improved Parra make up 4 of those and we are at 84 wins. Find a decent but not great pitcher worth 1 or 2 wins and we are at 86. The offense improves a little as I suggested and we are 87-88 wins. Still in the wild card hunt.

[Invader3K]

Well, if the Mets, Phillies, Cubs, etc. play similar to how they did this past season, we would more than likely be out of the Wild Card with that scenario.

[rluzinski]

Here are my WAGs for ERA projections from the starting rotation:

 

Yo 3.75

Parra 4.25

Bush 4.60

Suppan 5.0

McClung / Cappy / Villy

 

About a 4.5 average, which is pretty .. average. I think they improve on that in the off season but no reason to act like that rotation would be terrible if they don't. The offense was pretty much average last year and I expect that Melvin will be able to improve it. Even if he returns roughly the same offense, I'd expect a bit of an improvement. Let's say the below average bullpen stays a little below average).

 

To me the Brewers are around an 83 win team as they stand. Maybe 5 wins better with CC replacing a 5.0 ERA pitcher? 3 wins better with Sheets? Lot's of other things Melvin could do. Should be an interesting off season!