Pitching questions for next year

[jjfanec]

As this season closes there are obviously a lot of questions for next years team. There is already a thread for the lineup so was interested in what other people were thinking about the pitching staff for next year (if this is in another thread feel free to move). I am going to assume that CC and Sheets are not here next year. It is nice to dream but I just dont think they will be here.

As of right now I would say our rotation looks like this

1. Yo 2. Bush 3. Parra 4. Suppan 5. McClung or a new guy who is more of a top end guy

Obviously this rotation could use a top-end type guy. If they get that I think they could be set. Trading Soup would be ideal but I doubt it will happen so he will probably be the 5 guy. McClung could get a shot at the rotation but I really like him as a bullpen guy. The same thing with Villy.

 

For the bullpen there are a lot of options

Riske, Torres, Villy, McClung, and Stetter are back

Shouse - is a free agent, as are Gagne and Mota

 

Obviously, there are a lot of scenarios with how this could play out. I think Villy and McClung deserves shots for the late innings with how well they pitched down the stretch. Both guys can pitch multiple innings and have really to learn how to pitch. Their walks seemed to go down and they did not seem to get hit too hard. Stetter looks good. Torres was a pleasant surprise I am just not sold on him as a closer. He fills a spot for sure though. Riske hopefully can bounce back after his surgery. After that there are definitely spots open for free agents and maybe minor league guys like Dillard or someone else.

[JenksFan5]

I am going to be optimistic (and a tad unrealistic) about next year's pitching staff. Sheets going down this year hurt the Brewers as usual, but his stock might have dropped just a bit as well. My thinking is that the Brewers will offer Sheets arbitration in order to get the compensatory picks. Sheets is going to accept and sign a one-year deal to prove he can stay healthy and cash-in in free agency going into the 2010 season. (I know, it's a long shot, but a guy can hope). This leaves Sheets making good cash, but the Brewers only have a one-year risk in him similar to Gagne this year.

 

Next, the Brewers brake the bank on C.C., matching Johan's contract and potentially crippling the organization for years to come. Again, not likely, but possible. That leaves the rotation and bullpen looking like this:

 

Sabathia

Sheets

Gallardo

Parra

Bush

 

Riske

Torres

McClung

Villanueva

Stetter

Suppan (yes, a $12 million bullpen long reliever)

?????? Shouse re-signs?

 

OK, that would be a dream, but probably not how it will shake out. My guess is the rotation will look something like this:

 

Gallardo

Parra

Bush

Villanueva/McClung

Suppan

 

I hope the Brewers would add a free agent to the rotation, but not sure anyone aside from Sabathia and a healthy Sheets are worth paying the money for. Perhaps Brad Penny or A.J. Burnett, but both are going to command some big dollars and Penny is coming off a sub-par year.

 

Hopefully, my dream scenario comes true, but I doubt it. It is probably going to take a bigger trade to land a quality arm, but at what cost? Is the organiztion willing to give up Hardy, Hart or Fielder packaged with prospects for a potentially #2 starter? It should be a very interesting offseason to say the least.

[ewizabeff]

I'm wondering if Bateman will be given the chance to fill one of the bullpen roles in spring training. I know he's coming up quick, but maybe we need to try to do something other than buy a bullpen.

[Never Outhustled]

Todd Coffey, Tim Dillard, and Mark Difelice are all very viable bullpen options.

[BrewerTerp]

Honestly, I know its a pipe dream. But I can always hold out hope this holiday season... http://ccsanta.ytmnd.com

[jjfanec]

I like Coffey as an option out there. I forgot about him. He pitched well down the stretch. I may be in the minority here but I actually would not be opposed to a much cheaper one year deal with Gagne. He only gave up a run in one of his last 11 outings. He only gave up 4 hits and 3 walks in those 11 innings.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Really, you want to sign Gagne b/c of 11 innings of 1 run ball vs. his 6+ ERA for the rest of the year?

 

Good luck to Mr. Gagne, but we can and should do better.

[fallingleaves]

I feel the crew will need to acquire another a true 2nd starter to keep the rotation playoff competitive, because the I think our offense will be better next year.

 

1 - Yovani

2 - ???

3 - Bush

4 - Parra

5 - Suppan

 

Cappy may also be an option.

[phxMILWfan]

I've always been a Sheets fan but I would be shocked and disappointed if he was resigned. I also don't think it's wise to resign Sabathia. He's great, atleast one of the top 5 pitchers in all of baseball if not the best but an organization in a small market like Milwaukee can't afford him at the back end of his contract. An injury or ineffectiveness to a 20 to 25 million dollar a year player would cripple the team. Who knows what kind of effect him pitching so much on short rest at the end of the year will have on his performance next year. I also don't want to see them sign a free agent pitcher like a Derek Lowe. See Jeff Suppan for why that would be a mistake. You over pay to get free agents to come to Milwaukee and the model of growing through the draft works. Take the draft picks for the free agents that are leaving and don't lose any of your own trying to sign a 30 something year old pitcher to big money. Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, McClung/Villy isn't horrible. They should still be competitive and if the team is near the top of the division in July maybe we make a trade then.

[rluzinski]

"Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, McClung/Villy isn't horrible. They should still be competitive and if the team is near the top of the division in July maybe we make a trade then."

 

That's pretty much the worst case rotation and it isn't all that bad. If Sheets wants to come back for one year, great, but I wouldn't sign Sheets or CC to long term deals. If I were Melvin, I'd be aggressive in trying to trade Fielder for a good, young arm.

[phxMILWfan]

I know this thread is for pitching but since you brought Prince up rluzinski, I don't understand trading him. You have him under control for 3 years and he adds alot to the order. I think it would be a mistake and set us back further than not having the young pitcher he would be traded for. I don't think bringing in Gamel to play first or whatever move would follow that keeps the team as competitive.

[Hate those Rodents]

Off topic a bit, but do most think Gamel is ready to HIT at the major league level? I guess I'm thinking if we can upgrade defensively at first base and get a stud pitcher, maybe we could live with Gamel playing some third for us next sesason.

[logan82]

I know this thread is for pitching but since you brought Prince up rluzinski, I don't understand trading him. You have him under control for 3 years and he adds alot to the order. I think it would be a mistake and set us back further than not having the young pitcher he would be traded for. I don't think bringing in Gamel to play first or whatever move would follow that keeps the team as competitive.

A 1B who is a better defender and a good pitcher may be enough to make up for whatever Fielder adds with his bat. Depends on how much you think his defense subtracts form his overall value. I think a good 1B would add a lot since we have other poor defenders on our infield.

[rluzinski]

Prince is a great hitter and a bad defender, who will be reasonably priced for at least two more years. I only advocate trading Prince if Melvin could get a very good return. If he can get the Brewers a solid young starting pitcher who could slip right into the rotation, great. If not, 35+ HRs and a solid OBP is a great plan B.

[TheCrew07]

It's not just Fielders poor defense, but his poor receiving skills. Hardy has a very accurate arm, the rest of the IF not so much, if you get a competent receiver at 1B you can upgrade the entire infield defense with one move. I think it was X who originally proposed trading Fielder and signing Teixeira... that's a move I can really get behind, it allows me to stay with my original plan of trading Fielder to the Rays for Shields... that silly acquiring Sabathia before the deadline deal stole my off season thunder!

 

I think my thoughts on this are well known, we should be looking to acquire good, young pitching as the system continues to produce bats and our best pitching prospects just got their first taste of AA. It doesn't really matter to me who gets dealt, if the opportunity to snag a Volquez type (young guy on the rise) or a Santana/Shields type should arise, I would hope the Brewers pull the trigger on a deal.

 

I've detailed at great length my opinion of the shortcomings of the FA pitching market so I'll just say that I'm firmly against signing any FA pitcher who will cost 12+/per, take a commitment of 4 years to land, while his skills are declining, and be a marginal upgrade over McClung (for example). Simply put, I think the FA pitching market stinks, acquiring young pitchers allows the Brewers to get the most bang for their buck.

 

I've also used the example many times of Suppan's relative value... being the highest paid player on the team but having true talent in the lower half of the 25 man roster talent pool. I just don't see that as money well spent, and I fear that Mark A. will push Melvin for a "name" and we'll end up with another Suppanesque deal and pitcher... I don't need an ace like Sabathia, Lincecum, whomever... but I definitely don't want to be to commited to 2 aging pitchers with market value contracts (albatross).... I'd happily settle for an entire rotation of Parra's and slightly better... Yo is a 1/2 type pitcher, Parra is a 2/3 top end, give me a bunch of 2's and 3's and I'm happy camper.

[logan82]

I think it was X who originally proposed trading Fielder and signing Teixeira... that's a move I can really get behind,

Teixeira is a Boras player so I don't know how realistic a deal with him is. If I had to guess I would say he is also a Type A free agent so we would also have to give up or 1st round pick.

[danzig6767]

I think it was X who originally proposed trading Fielder and signing Teixeira... that's a move I can really get behind,

Teixeira is a Boras player so I don't know how realistic a deal with him is.

How about completely and utterly unrealistic that the Brewers will spend over 100 million dollars on Teixeria

[phxMILWfan]

Your not just having to replace fielders bat in the lineup but think about the decline in numbers Braun, Hardy, Hart would have from not having that big bat in the middle of the lineup for other teams to pitch around. I think Braun enjoys the fact that other teams have to pitch to him. If they lose Fielder, Braun gets pitched around and sees a decline in production like Fielder saw from 2 years ago to this last year. I know defense is important but I think people are overlooking his importance in the lineup. Fielder should not be dealt. Go into the year with what we have left after CC and Sheets leave. It will be okay.

[bcf5575]

I think that it is very likely to see Sheets back in a brewers uniform next year. The Brewers have to offer him arbitration, and he might just accept as his chances of securing a lucrative long term deal took a major hit the last 6 weeks of the season. Teams would have been worried about him before, but with the groin and the torn muscle ending his season prematurely again it might be in his best interest to do a 1 year deal and try to hit it big next offseason. This would be ideal for the brewers to get another year out of him without the risk of a long term deal. It would be an expensive year, but if Gagne is worth a $10 mil gamble, Sheets is worth a $12-15 mil gamble...

[Ennder]

Sheets will sign for 3+ years elsewhere unless the arm has something wrong with it other than just soreness. A sore arm after 196 innings is not going to force him into a 1 year deal. So it really depends on what ends up being wrong with him right now.

 

I pray that CC signs somewhere else as his contract will almost certainly be a disaster for whoever signs him. I'm not sure who all is FA so not sure if there is anyone I'd go after.

 

It also wouldn't surprise me to see Capuano come back and win a spot.

[jjfanec]

Really, you want to sign Gagne b/c of 11 innings of 1 run ball vs. his 6+ ERA for the rest of the year?

 

Good luck to Mr. Gagne, but we can and should do better.

Depending on how cheap he would come sure. If he was willing to a small one year deal I would definitely look at him. I know his ERA was bad over the season but he had an ERA of 3.5 and a WHIP of 1. He cut his home runs down a little and his walks drastically. One red flag was that his BAbip was very low the second half of the year so he could have just been lucky. However, he should come cheap and with our payroll a guy who was a good bullpen arm down the stretch would be nice.

[JohnBriggs12]

Right now there are more questions than answers. I wouldn't discount possibility of Villanueva either returning to the rotation or getting a shot at the closer role as there is precedent for non-power arms being quite successful and Villanueva is really a mature pitcher for his age.

 

Last spring the Brewers didn't bring in a huge quantity of non-roster arms. I think that will change. There's going to be competition.

[EbbaStClaire]

In another thread (Transactions/Proposal) I pointed out that the average number of starters used by a Major League team in 08 was >10. The Brewers have no one in the minor leagues ready to be a starter in 09 so in effect they need another 2-3 "starters" for depth given that the current roster's potential starters are Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, Villanueva, and McClung (who may be a better relief pitcher/closer). In addition only Bush is likely to pitch 200 innings, thereby increasing the need for more starters. I think the Brewers should sign a couple of guys like Kip Wells and Mark Hendrickson (just using them as examples) who have started many games but actually have pitched better in relief. They would also have the ability to pitch more than one inning at a time. There are many options for the relief pitching staff once a closer is identified. McClung looks like the best to me but I actually like him better as a starter. Torres can do a decent job but would be better in the 8th inning and Coffey looked good that last three weeks but he has failed to do the closer's job in the past. With a lefthanded pitcher like Hendrickson the Brewers would need only one LOGGY, Stetter or Shouse. They could also consider Gagne at $4-5M because he looked good at the end of the season. As others have said we do need a horse for a starter. CC would be terrific and Sheets for another year would also be okay. I'm surprised no one has mentioned Braden Looper. He pitches a lot of innings also. I think there are quite a few options, including signing Capuano, before the Brewers have to start trading away a player like JJ Hardy who I think was better hitting 5th than 2nd. If I were Doug Melvin figuring out my pitching options would be my first priority but it looks like they need at least one good and proven starting pitcher plus 2-3 more pitchers who can start and/or be relief pitchers.

[Mass Haas]

Lots of quotes from Seth McClung in this article, text follows. Also doing what he can for the community here (McClung is dyslexic).

 

McClung adjusts to changes in major leagues

Gabe Whisnant

November 2, 2008 - 11:47PM

Pitchers at any level like to know their routine.

The conditioning - and mentality - required for starting every five days is different than being prepared to come out of the bullpen. Milwaukee Brewers righthander Seth McClung seemed to be in a state of flux during the 2008 season.

McClung, who attended Cramerton Middle School (formerly Junior High), conditioned himself to be a reliever last offsesason. He started the year in the bullpen for the Brewers, then platooned in the starting rotation for a portion of the season. The righty returned to the pen in August. He remained in that role the rest of the year as Milwaukee earned a wild-card berth before falling to eventual World Series champion Philadelphia.

"My arm was conditioned to be a reliever. My velocity was down, and I wasn't flirting with 100 (miles per hour) like I had in the past," McClung said. "I felt like my arm was always playing catch-up."

During the regular season, he pitched in 37 games - 12 as a starter. McClung finished at 6-6 with an earned run average of 4.02 in 105.1 innings. On May 24, he made his first start in over two years and picked up a win over the Washington Nationals.

He hopes to enter - and finish - the 2009 season as a starter.

"In the offseason, I'm going to condition myself to come in and be a starter," McClung said. "It just means longer endurance running and longer tosses."

The decision on McClung's role will be in new hands next season as Milwaukee recently hired Ken Macha to replace interim manager Dale Sveum. Sveum took over late in the year for Ned Yost, who was fired after a two-week Brewer slump. Sveum helped right the ship as Milwaukee reached the postseason.

"We handled it the best way possible. We didn't let it become a large issue, we just went about playing baseball," said McClung about the mangerial change.

"It was the same effect for us as it was changing a starter in the field. Ned did a lot to get us there, but the GM thought we had to make a change, and we did.

"Who knows if we get to the playoffs with or without Ned, but I think we would have. We just rolled with it."

McClung appeared in Game 1 of the Divisional Playoffs at Philadelphia, pitching two scoreless innings of relief work. He struck out one and pitched around two hits and three walks (one intentional).

Pitching in the postseason was a dream come true, but he tried to treat the opportunity like a regular game.

"You just try not to overhype it because then it gets in your head," McClung said. "I just really appreciated the fact that I was in a game that was magnified. It made me hungry for more."

McClung, who broke into the majors in 2003 with the Tampa Bay Rays and currently resides in Florida, said his contract will be negotiated in the coming months. He hopes to remain with the Brewers.

"We've had so much turnover in the coaching staff. Before he left, Ned (Yost) promised me I would be a starter next year," he said. "Professionally, you always strive to be on a team that wins. My main thought is to be somewhere I can help win.

"I would love the security, but Milwaukee has to decide on me, not me on them.

"It was the same effect for us as it was changing a starter in the field. Ned did a lot to get us there, but the GM thought we had to make a change, and we did.

"Who knows if we get to the playoffs with or without Ned, but I think we would have. We just rolled with it."

McClung appeared in Game 1 of the Divisional Playoffs at Philadelphia, pitching two scoreless innings of relief work. He struck out one and pitched around two hits and three walks (one intentional).

Pitching in the postseason was a dream come true, but he tried to treat the opportunity like a regular game.

"You just try not to overhype it because then it gets in your head," McClung said. "I just really appreciated the fact that I was in a game that was magnified. It made me hungry for more."

McClung, who broke into the majors in 2003 with the Tampa Bay Rays and currently resides in Florida, said his contract will be negotiated in the coming months. He hopes to remain with the Brewers.

"We've had so much turnover in the coaching staff. Before he left, Ned (Yost) promised me I would be a starter next year," he said. "Professionally, you always strive to be on a team that wins. My main thought is to be somewhere I can help win.

"I would love the security, but Milwaukee has to decide on me, not me on them."

[Baldkin]

Just wanted to toss a name out there, who might be very useful in a 1-year Gagne-esque type deal.

 

Randy Johnson

He had 184 IP last year, and his K-BB was 4:1. His ERA was 3.91 and I don't think he'll go for that much in FA.