Balfour DFA'd (ok, kidding before someone gets excited)

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"I realize he's been about as bad as you could imagine but judging a guy solely by 3 IP isn't exactly fair. He did great in AAA and I'd guess the scouts like his stuff as well. If Melvin can trade for a better guy, great. Otherwise, I can't see giving up on him already. "

 

I'm with Russ....kind of.

 

As a 2007 Brewer, I do give up on him. Maybe not as a 2007 Ranger (Doug's due for a Texas trade!) or a Red. It's because we don't enjoy the luxury of seeing whether he can get 20 more innings of on-the-job training in the majors.

 

Trade him, and let him learn how to pitch in the majors on someone else's time. The White Sox desperately need bullpen help, and Grant's sparkling AAA stats could interest them. Tampa's pen? Awful, too. I'm not saying we can simply push a button or 2, and send him to a good team, in exchange for an effective reliever, like a Scott Linebrink, but he can't pitch up here for us this season anymore.

 

Even though it's been only 3 innings, it suggests that the jump from AAA to the majors is like climbing into a Canyonero, when Marge had to use that step ladder to step in when she drove Bart, Lisa and Maggie to the grocery store.

 

The thing I also can't get past is, that Balfour's 30 this year, and has had some significant injury history. Right now, in a pennant race, he's gone out there and did his part to cost us 2 games. Migod, I wish we had those 2 back already!

[Tbadder]

To me, it looks like Grant doesn't trust his stuff and he doesn't have a decent 2nd pitch. Without either of these he, and the Brewers, are doomed. Getting chewed out by Yost on the mound didn't help, so I suspect he's gutless as well.

[mpepy05]

Yost should've got the whole infield (team for that matter) in there when he was lecturing Balfour. They all deserved an equal share.

 

Maybe next time he'll march out there and inquire on the whereabouts of a good locale where they serve bums such as themselves. Go climb in the bottle and drink it off. Couldn't hurt their play on the road.

[mpepy05]

And frankly, if parra was available. Last night more than any upcoming outing was the night to use him if he plans on starting him on Saturday. Let him go a couple innings if he gets out of that one.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"If they feel they need to make a trade, by all means go for it, but I'm not a fan of giving up anything of substance for a guy that pitches so little. They really have a solid bullpen, just not a good 7th "

 

I partially agree, here, Brett.

 

If we'd look to trade an Inman or someone valuable, for a guy who'll come in once a week, then no, of course that's not worth it. But the guy we'll trade for, at least the one I'd like to see us get, could/should step into either YoGa's or Charlie NewHouse's role, as one of them heads to the rotation. That is to say, with Wise so largely unavailable on back to back days, Turnbow iffy at times, if we make a trade, it should be for a middle guy who can go 1-2 innings perhaps 10 times a month.

 

But a 7th reliever type? Nah.

 

"Throw the next one at the wall and see if he sticks.

 

I'm a proponent of just going through as many bullpen guys as possible until they catch lightning in a bottle. Heck, they even got semi-effectiveness out of Chris Spurling for a while there."

 

This is where we part ways on this matter.

 

Look at these luminaries the White Sox have been sending out there to relieve this year, hoping one sticks to the wall:

 

- Ehren Wasserman

- Dewon Day

- Mike MacGougall

- Matt Thornton

- Ryan Bukvich

- Nick Masset

- Gavin Floyd

 

*shudder!*

 

These hacks have pretty much knocked an otherwise-promising White Sox team out of the race in 2007, with the worst bullpen in the league. We put in just ONE of these AAAA hacks for 2 key situations, and he blows them both. With Prince, JJ, Rickie, Jenkins, Hart and Mench all slumping to varying degrees since the break, the offense isn't there latelty, and our lead is down to 3 games. We can't just start throwing a series of nobodies out there, and hope to win.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Reading Geno's read on the White Sox bullpen makes me think that he will be delighted to read the following from the trade rumors forum:

 

Quote:

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Meanwhile, Gavin Floyd, Charlie Haeger, Lance Broadway and Heath Phillips are among White Sox relievers drawing interest from several teams including Arizona, Los Angeles and Milwaukee.

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[1992casey]

Well, SoCal, at least the twain only meet on one guy: Floyd.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Weather's began his career as a starter. He was lit up as a starter. When he moved to the bullpen and didn't have to go as long or through the lineup more than once, he vastly improved. He is not comparable to Balfour, who has only started one game in his career.

 

Dan Kolb caught lighting in a bottle for 2 seasons with the brewers, when he was great. He had one other season that was medicore at best 4.219 ERA. Other than that he hasn't had a season with an era under 4.6. I don't see either Kolb or Weathers as being persuasive arguements for keeping Balfour.

[rluzinski]

He's got 70 ML innings in his career and he's got a 5.128 ERA. I think that's enough of a sample size to say he can't get it done in the bigs.

 

Looking at only 70 IP worth of a relief pitcher's ERA from 3 years ago tells us very little about his actual talent right now. For a guy with so few ML innings, I'd rely heavily on his minor league stats and scouting to put together my best guess for his expected performance in the majors. Balfour was lights out in AAA this year and it seems like he's got some pretty decent stuff to justify it. That doesn't guarantee success at the major league level but it's a good sign.

 

Don't get me wrong, I don't think losing Balfour on waivers would be some great loss. If Melvin can replace him with a proven commodity, great. But as is often the case, I think people are just way to quick to judge Balfour's talent. This year a lone, there's maybe a half dozen examples of Brewer players being grossly over rated or under rated based on a handful of AB or IP. A couple players have been been both under rated AND over rated already this year.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I personally don't take much stock in a hot couple of months in AAA from a 29 year old relief pitcher. I'd rather look at his entire career at the major league level. It hasn't been impressive. Doug did his best to find another diamond in the rough, but it's time to cut our loses on this guy.

[gregmag]

This year a lone, there's maybe a half dozen examples of Brewer players being grossly over rated or under rated based on a handful of AB or IP. A couple players have been been both under rated AND over rated already this year.

 

That's immaterial. Some here have judged some players too quickly, so those (not all the same people, BTW, a point you elide) who would give up on Balfour are judging him too quickly? That just doesn't follow. Anyway, I agree with you that we can't write Balfour off for future usefulness in MLB. I just think we should cut bait on him in Milwaukee this year, because -- to put it in at least colloquially statistical terms -- he has established too high a probability that he's no good for the Brewers to tolerate in a pennant race.

 

It's a small sample, but it is a sample, and sometimes extremity trumps sample size. Let's say you're trying to determine the temperature of an object about which you know nothing. You touched it yesterday, and it burned your hand to a crisp. You touch it again today, with your remaining hand, and it burns that one to a crisp. Aren't you justified in reaching, if not a precise temperature estimate, at least the conclusion that you shouldn't try tomorrow with your foot?

 

Greg.

[rluzinski]

Some here have judged some players too quickly, so those (not all the same people, BTW, a point you elide) who would give up on Balfour are judging him too quickly?

 

Sample size is a concept that goes against human perception, so it will be something that baseball fans will always struggle with. If a batter looks horrible for a week, how could he possibly be good? If a pitcher we are otherwise unfamiliar with comes up and stinks up the joint, he can't possibly be good.

 

I bet if you thought back at the generalizations you've made about a player based on small samples, you were probably wrong about as often as you were right. The problem is, it's difficult to stay objective when trying to self assess in that situation, however.

 

It's a small sample, but it is a sample, and sometimes extremity trumps sample size.

 

It's a factor, of course. But when you are talking about 3 IP, it's easy for luck (if that's what caused Balfours's troubles.. I don't really know, of course) to trump skill. It's like saying Gwynn's first 36 AB were So good that they couldn't possibly have been a result of luck. In reality, the sample was so small that it allows for the possibility of very extreme outcomes.

 

The calculations take it all into account. If you are interested in more information, shoot me a message.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Sample size is a concept that goes against human perception, so it will be something that baseball fans will always struggle with. If a batter looks horrible for a week, how could he possibly be good? If a pitcher we are otherwise unfamiliar with comes up and stinks up the joint, he can't possibly be good.

 

It should also be noted that there is a well-known cognitive bias toward the first things you see...it is that bias that leads to the idea that a first impression is so crucial. (I think that it's called the primacy effect.) I think you see the same with Gwynn in reverse...he started out hot so he must be good. It's very hard to overcome that initial perception. That's part of what makes so many Ken Phelps types get stuck in the 'AAAA player' bin...if they don't look good in their first shot at the bigs, they sometimes don't get another.

 

That's not to say that Balfour is necessarily a great pitcher. But I do buy Danzig's explanation upthread...the guy got so amped up in his debut that he stopped doing whatever he was doing in AAA, and now he's out there thinking 'don't screw up, don't screw up.'

[gregmag]

Russ, I'm not saying Balfour isn't good. I'm saying that the chance that he isn't good is unacceptably high for the Brewers in present circumstances. I'm also not saying that we should always draw this conclusion based on a pitcher's having thrown three poor innings (any more than I was high on Gwynn after 30 pretty good PAs, and I wish you would stop attributing every point made by anyone who questions your wisdom to everyone who disputes one of your positions). I'm saying that I haven't seen three innings this bad since at least Turnbow's meltdown last year, and that sort of extreme information, when the team is engaged in the baseball equivalent of defusing a bomb, warrants something more than a mere playback of the "small sample, ignore it" mantra.

 

I'm a little frustrated by the fact that you keep coming back with the same refrain, without even considering the possibility that there may be other angles from which to view the situation. I actually do understand your premise very well -- I've studied statistics too -- so you don't have to keep repeating it like I'm an inattentive child. Danzig made the point that Balfour may be failing to control his emotions. If that's accurate -- and it seems plausible to me -- it could be an explanation. It's not a question of statistical noise. It's the same way if a guy is hurt: you don't send him out to pitch 15 times with a torn ACL so that you can have a sufficiently large sample to conclude he can't pitch.

 

Maybe Yost can conclude that Balfour's over his frenzy, or maybe Grant took up yoga yesterday, or got counseling. If so, then we may be back to the situation you reflexively presume we're in: a guy with great stuff who, for no discernible reason, had a couple of bad outings. If so, then my reaction is moot. But I think the burden of persuasion is on Balfour to show Yost that nothing systematic is wrong with him, and until we hear (or see) that he has done so, I'll have more doubts than I want to have in a pennant race, when we have other options.

 

Greg.

[xisxisxis]

I agree with greg for the reasons Geno stated. I simply don't see how the Brewers can risk trying out unknown quantities in key situations in the middle of a pennant race. Doug needs to spend some time upgrading the bullpen in the next few days and someone needs to stop slapping Nedly with the stupid stick so that he can figure out that when you just call up someone from the minors, you don't put him into key win/loss situations in the middle of a pennant race as if you were managing the 2004 Brewers.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"Sample size is a concept that goes against human perception, so it will be something that baseball fans will always struggle with. If a batter looks horrible for a week, how could he possibly be good? If a pitcher we are otherwise unfamiliar with comes up and stinks up the joint, he can't possibly be good."

 

Russ, I can't speak for everyone, but I think by now, after over 13,000 posts illuminating this notion in varying shades, that we understand the concept of sample size. We just don't choose to embrace it as dogmatically as you do.

 

You prefer bigger sample sizes to analyze before reacting, which is fine. Just don't expect everyone to follow your "teachings." It's like someone telling me it's Coke, not Pepsi, or it's Opra-bama, not Bill-ary... Not everyone is on the exact same wavelength, and that's OK.

 

As Dave and Greg have testified, we've already experimented a few times with Balfour, and the room for error just isn't there as a first place team with a smaller and smaller lead.

 

It's like we keep sticking our hands into dog doo, and we have a wedding to attend in half an hour. It's time to wash up, and fast, because Lindsay Lohan's out on bond and will be at the reception, and just between you amd me, I hear she drinks, so I may have a chance if I don't ask her to dance while reeking of dog waste.

[markedman5]

Can't see the name Ken Phelps in a post without thinking of this.....

 

Frank Costanza (yelling): What the hell did you trade Jay Buhner for?!? He had 30 home runs, over 100 RBIs last year, he's got a rocket for an arm, you don't know what the hell you're doin'!!

Steinbrenner: Well, Buhner was a good prospect, no question about it. But my baseball people love Ken Phelps' bat. They kept saying 'Ken Phelps , Ken Phelps'.

[lcbj68c]

Was a move made yet today?

 

Gameday shows neither Parra nor Balfour on the reliever list?

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm as much a stat head as the next guy, and I'll preach sample size as well, but having watched Balfour's few appearances, I don't think you really even NEED to see his stats to see that he looks completely lost on a big league mound right now. Maybe it's just jitters, who knows, but to echo the sentiments of Greg, Geno, and others, the Brewers simply can't afford to let Balfour (try to) get his nerves back in pressure situations when the team is in a tight race.

 

Ned has been careful with many of his other relievers to wait to put them into pressure spots until they've been up a little bit and gotten their feet wet. Maybe with Balfour the fact he did have some ML experience was a deciding factor, but for now I can't see putting him in a game that's within 5 runs one way or the other.

[CportBadger]

Parra may have been removed from the relief list because he is starting Saturday and probably won't be available.

[Gopher74]

Quote:

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I would hate to give up on this guy so quickly. I have been really hoping that he could step in as our closer next season. I still think he has that potential, let him get his feet wet for a few more times and we will see the real Grant soon.

---

 

Our closer? I don't see "closer" stuff out of Balfour at all. I think he's got the chance to be a very good 7th inning guy, but he's not and will not be our closer EVER. I'd rather T-bow and Wise be our 8th/9th inning guys, or go after a Scott Linebrink.

[MJLiverock]

I just noticed on the Who's Not Hot section of my fantasy league a certain Mr. Balfour has really been roughed up in Tampa lately. He has made 4 appearances since 09/08 and recorded 2 innings worth of outs while giving up 10 earned runs. In 19 innings with Tampa he as walked 14 batters so control seems to still be a problem. Against Boston he had a similar game to one of his Milwaukee games. He didn't record an out but gave up 3 hits and a walk.

[JJHardy7]

It's too bad he hasn't gotten it together yet. It makes the McClung deal look solid since McClung has lowered his ERA lately and in general improved from a few bad rough starts.