Can Gallardo and Parra go 200 innings next year?

[Ennder]

Ok, I was trying to avoid this thread, because I wasn't sure how to respond without a one line sarcastice response, which I know is not exactly welcomed by the moderators. However, everytime I come on the site, I see the thread and it gets my blood boiling.

 

Are we serious? Really? Maybe by the time these guys are FAs they will be able to pitch more than 200 innings. Sorry, I guess I'm just "old-school" as the kids say. Somewhere Warren Spahn is spinning in his grave.

Spahn faced between 1025 and 1289 batters a year in his prime years. A guy like Webb faces 930-975 batters per year now and CC faced 1023 this year. Those extra 100-300 batters faced came in 50-100 extra innings for Spahn compared to Webb which means most likely fewer runners on, few maximium effort pitches. Add in the fact that hitters take more pitches now than they used to and Spahn would likely be a 200-220 IP pitcher in today's game.

 

The pitchers aren't babies, the game has just changed.

[Patrick425]

The game is different, whether you like it or not.

So I should just accept it like the rest of the sheeple. I guess I'm trying to get a handle on when it changed and why (never mind, I know when and why - free agency and the players taking over baseball). When did we start getting excited about "Quality starts"? Quality starts remind me of the participation certificates that my son brings home from his grade school "fun runs".

 

[TooLiveBrew]

So I should just accept it like the rest of the sheeple.

 

No, you should recognize that it is what it is, and there's not some elaborate conspiracy where pitchers of the world gather at a secret location to celebrate the grand illusion of tricking 'the sheeple' into believing they can't throw more than 225 IP or so per season, all while swimming in hot tubs filled with money.

 

I think Quality Start is a weak way to have something good to say about a pitcher. Just look at the BOS-LAA game last night. The little pop-up that neither Hunter nor Kendrick decided to catch (2 outs, bases loaded for BOS) resulted in 3 ER for the Angels starter . Does that seem like a fair way to evaluate a pitcher in terms of "Earned" runs allowed? That ball was an easy out #3 if one of the two fielders took charge. If you want to complain about the Quality Start designation, or that there are many out-of-date ways that pitchers are criticized and praised, I'm with you. But I think you have to accept that baseball has changed.

[Patrick425]

Those extra 100-300 batters faced came in 50-100 extra innings for Spahn compared to Webb which means most likely fewer runners on, few maximium effort pitches.

I'm not sure I understand. So, it's not fare to compare Spahn to Webb because Spahn put fewer runners on base? So...he was a better pitcher and pitched more innings.

 

Anyways, Spahn was just a name that popped into my head. You could go back 20-25 years and look at all the innings and complete games that were thrown. Suddenly, players win a few contract disputes with management, get paid more, and the complete games and innings take a dive because their precious arms need to be protected.. To me, it's wrong.

 

Sorry, I'm just bitter today. Maybe I should take a break from posting until I get over the season being over.

[Ennder]

Again if you go look at the research in the 50's the average number of pitches per game for the 'horse' style pitcher was in the 105-115 range. It has slowly gone down to where it is now in the 100-105 range. The biggest difference is it takes more pitches per inning so the innings has dropped a lot more and teams don't skip the 5th starter as often anymore. The pitches per game really hasn't changed all that much.

 

Parra threw 2704 pitches this year, if he can pump that up to 3000-3100 next year he is looking at 200 IP if he doesn't BB a ton of guys. If his BB stay high that is probably more like 190.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

The SS, Catcher and Pitcher were 3 automatic outs for Spahn. That just doesn't happen anymore in today's game. If JJ Hardy hit like he does now in Spahn's age, he'd be a sure fire hall of famer.

[1992casey]

Hey, everyone, let's play nice. A handful of posts have teetered on the condescension line, and a couple of them have crossed it.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd like to point out that Parra will be 26 next season. That really isn't young by baseball standards. In fact it's nearing prime. He wore down mentally this year more than anything. He never lost any velocity.

 

Gallardo will be 23 and while that's still pretty young, it's not like he's 20. Plus he's the de-facto ace of the staff.

[JJHardy7]

Again if you go look at the research in the 50's the average number of pitches per game for the 'horse' style pitcher was in the 105-115 range. It has slowly gone down to where it is now in the 100-105 range. The biggest difference is it takes more pitches per inning so the innings has dropped a lot more and teams don't skip the 5th starter as often anymore. The pitches per game really hasn't changed all that much.

 

Parra threw 2704 pitches this year, if he can pump that up to 3000-3100 next year he is looking at 200 IP if he doesn't BB a ton of guys. If his BB stay high that is probably more like 190.

 

Ennder, you seem like you've done a lot of research and are one of the better 'stat' guys. That being said, do you have any stats detailing pitches per at bat by decade or anything? I think batters being more patient and taking more pitches could be a huge reason why guys back in the day were able to throw more innings, but similar pitch count numbers.

[JohnBriggs12]

The SS, Catcher and Pitcher were 3 automatic outs for Spahn. That just doesn't happen anymore in today's game. If JJ Hardy hit like he does now in Spahn's age, he'd be a sure fire hall of famer

Hardy's stats are good but they're not in the class of Ernie Banks who was the premier SS in the Spahn years. In 1959 Banks hit .304 with 45 HR and 143 RBI. That TWR is Hall of Fame numbers, not what Hardy is doing. Put Banks in his prime in Minutemaid, Miller Park, Great American Ballpark, for most of his road games and he'd hit 50 some home runs easily, In Spahn's time there were 16 major league teams. I'd put a lineup like the Giants had with Mays, McCovey, Cepeda, Alou etc, against any lineup of today. The Braves lineup of the late 50's, Bruton, Logan, Mathews, Aaron, Adcock, Covington, Crandall, Schoendinst, had 3 HOF's and another (Adcock) who would have easily had 400 career home runs if not for some serious time lost due to injury. Many of the guys now in the majors would be minor leaguers in that era.

 

I'm 56 years old. I grew up watching those guys and saw many including Spahn in person. They were great players then and they'd be great players now.

[homer]

I think he's saying that SS and C were not offensive threats that they are today so instead of just one automatic out you had three. I don't have the time to research that (and it seems a bit simplistic) but I don't think he's saying all players of that era were worse than those today.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Keeping a pitching staff ready to go the entire season has been very difficult for the Brewers. In 2007, the bullpen got overused and ran out of gas. This season, the starters were pressed to go deeper into games to save the bullpen. This worked well until September when the starters ran out of gas. Sheets was injured, Soup is probably as well and Parra was gassed. A broader question is how do we keep the entire pitching staff on par for the entire season?

 

One of the prior posters made a great point...get Gallardo and Parra to their peak by mid-May. That makes some sense with guys that haven't had the 200 inning season yet. This is where a guy like DiFelice or a Seth McClung could make a difference. Either spot starts...occassional 6 man rotations or 3-4 inning bullpen duty could save the starters and keep the Gagne, Torres and Motas fresh into year end. It really requires Melvin to look to getting a staff that goes 15-16 deep into AAA. It may take a pre-season plan that puts a heavy load on certain guys early and brings up lesser used reinforcements at mid-year. That is a big challenge for DM and the Brewers with a limited payroll and limited depth in the upper tiers of the minors on the mound.

[JJHardy7]

I think he's saying that SS and C were not offensive threats that they are today so instead of just one automatic out you had three. I don't have the time to research that (and it seems a bit simplistic) but I don't think he's saying all players of that era were worse than those today.

 

I agree with what you're saying homer. I have to say I'm only 24 so I obviously don't know a ton of first hand things that JohnBriggs does, but hasn't the SS position completely changed in the past 15 years or so? I know a guy like Ernie Banks was great, but wasn't that an exception? The A-Rods, Nomars, etc. changed the position quite a bit in terms of having bigger and stronger players play a position that was normally a 'smaller guy' position where defense usually was better than the bat. I'm sure there were exceptions (like Banks), but I thought that SS was much more of a power position in the past 15 years than it is now. I may be wrong there, but I thought that's what has happened in regards to SS.

[Ennder]

That being said, do you have any stats detailing pitches per at bat by decade or anything?

 

That type of info is pretty spotty overall, they can come up with a formula that predicts how much it took based on BB, K rates etc but I don't know if there is a good place to find exact numbers.

 

Also I didn't mean to say Spahn would suck nowadays, he just wouldn't be a 270 IP pitcher. His career ERA+ is 118, Sheets right now has a career ERA+ of 116. Baseball is a very different game now and it isn't simple to just say why don't pitchers like today pitch like pitchers of yesteryear.

 

As for SS I wasn't able to find easily sortable OPS lists before 1974 but here are the leaders by OPS at the position for a few years and how low in the leader board you had to go to have a sub .700.

 

74 - Toby Harrah .736 (4th best was .697)

75 - Toby Harrah .862 (4th best was a .679)

76 - Rick Burleson .748 (4th best was .679)

77 - Gary Templeton .786 (5th best was .691)

78 - Roy Smalley .796 (7th best was .689)

79 - Roy Smalley .794 (5th best was .697)

08 - Hanley Ramirez .940 (4th best was Hardy .821, 13th best was a .699)

 

The position has definitely changed in recent years.

[cruiserx43]

I know this has now become a debate involving Spahn and Banks, and maybe this will get laughed at, but are we to assume Capuano is done pitching? I really don't know what his status is. If that's for another topic I apologize.

[jackalope02ca]

Capuano could be a bullpen option come August/September of next year if we re-sign him. All depends on how quickly he recovers. He's not a starting option for 09 though.

[Ennder]

Saw this question over at baseballprospectus today and seemed pretty fitting for this thread, I also agree with Joe's answer 100%.

 

 

 

Ted (Milwaukee): The old practice of starting pitchers pacing themselves, saving their best stuff for key situations -- to what extent is it still around, given five-man rotations and seven- and eight-man bullpens?

 

Joe Sheehan: It's not, and what you describe is more an effect than a cause. Pitchers can't save their best stuff when every hitter they face is a threat to hit the ball out of the park. This is the single biggest reason why the never-ending comparisons to pitchers of the 1960s and 1970s are wildly invalid, and the point can't be made often enough or strongly enough. In those eras, teams had 2-4 guys in EVERY lineup who couldn't drive the ball. Now everyone can, so pitchers can't just downshift some of the time. That's why no one goes nine any longer--it takes the same amount of effort to go six or seven now as it did to go nine or more back then.

 

http://www.baseballprospe.../chat/chat.php?chatId=530

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I didn't even bring up 2B either. You could argue that the 2B position has greatly improved from a power perspective in the last 30 years as well. We should refer back to this thread when people bring up this issue. Great stuff.

[WV Brew]

Stats from '57 vs '08 NL HR per team 147 in '57 to 163 in '08. SLG .400 to .413. A lot of that could easily be explained by today's bandbox style stadia. Walks 483 to 551. K's 769 to 1128. That is where there is a huge difference. Lot more walks and a lot more strikeouts. These are causing more pitches. Spahn never had 200 K's in a season despite more IP. He won the Cy Young for both leagues in '57 despite only 111 K's. A pitch to contact guy like Spahn could possibly never make the majors today, rightly or wrongly.

[Ennder]

keep in mind the bullpen usage of today suppresses offense as well which gets hidden in overall numbers. Also teams were more stars and scrubs back in the day, you had a lot of really bad players that would never make a team nowadays and those players helped inflate the best players numbers. The difference between the best and worst players was much larger.

 

Baseball was just very different back then.

[JohnBriggs12]

Stats from '57 vs '08 NL HR per team 147 in '57 to 163 in '08. SLG .400 to .413. A lot of that could easily be explained by today's bandbox style stadia. Walks 483 to 551. K's 769 to 1128. That is where there is a huge difference. Lot more walks and a lot more strikeouts. These are causing more pitches. Spahn never had 200 K's in a season despite more IP. He won the Cy Young for both leagues in '57 despite only 111 K's. A pitch to contact guy like Spahn could possibly never make the majors today, rightly or wrongly.

Spahn wasn't a pitch to contact pitcher. He did have over 2,500 career K's. Back then hitters made better contact overall. You didn't have guys swinging for the fences all the time. Guys actually choked up on the bat with 2 strikes. There were a few guys who came along like that like Dave Nicholson, but they never lasted. Sluggers of the era like a Willie McCovey, rarely struck out more than 120 times and often walked more. It wasn't until the Rob Deers of the world came along that strikeouts lost their stigma.

 

In 1957, Duke Snider led the majors in strikeouts with 104. Nobody else in either league struck out 100 times. By today's standards, Snider would be considered a "contact hitter". And don't tell me guys didn't throw hard in those days either because they did. The hitters did have the advantage of not having to face as many hard throwing relief specialists though it's not like they were totally non-existant.

 

Speaking of Spahn, he had 35 career home runs in the so-called "dead ball era".

 

Spahn would make hitters of today look silly and to say the greatest lefthander of all time wouldn't make the majors today is not worth a response.

[sbrylski]

Speaking of Spahn, he had 35 career home runs in the so-called "dead ball era".

 

Dead ball ended in 1920.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Yeah hitters gave up power back in Spahn's age to make more contact, but these days it has been accepted that it's ok to strike out and be more aggressive because it results in more power numbers. There's no way you can say Spahn wasn't a strikeout pitcher. It does show it's really hard to compare between the 2 ages and that in today's age, you have to preserve your young arms because if you don't, they will probably turn into Mark Prior.

 

Would people with a good sense of the history of the game think that Koufax was abused because he ended his career a bit early. Do you think in today's age if his arm was preserved, he would have had a longer career?

[1992casey]

The Dead Ball Era was actually pre-Babe Ruth.

Quoth Wikipedia:

---

The dead-ball era is a baseball term used to describe the period between 1900 (though some date it to the beginning of baseball) and the emergence of Babe Ruth as a power hitter in 1919. In 1919, Ruth hit a then-league record 29 home runs, a spectacular feat at that time.

[Ennder]

Spahn likely would be a 3.50-3.75 ERA pitcher or so in today's game. His career ERA was 3.09 vs a league wide 3.65 over his career. The NL ERA is generally around 4.30-4.50 now. Those translations are never easy to make though since every pitcher would react to the changes differently.