Was signing Sheets in 2005 a mistake?

[nate82]

Instead of trading him. This is the same year that the Marlins traded Beckett away for Hanley Ramirez and another prospect. The Marlins also traded away Lowell in that deal. This was the following year where Sheets k'd 264 in a year and had an ERA of 2.70. That year Sheets was a better pitcher than Beckett was.

 

Now if I remember correctly wasn't Sheets the player the Red Sox were really targeting and not Beckett? I know looking at this now it is rather unfair and is in hindsight.

 

If the Brewers would have traded away Sheets for Hanley Ramirez and another prospect would that have been such a bad thing? When you look at the 2005 team the Brewers had there was no way the team would have been able to compete. Now what would this team do offensively with Hardy at 3B and Ramirez at SS?

 

A lineup of:

 

1. Weeks 2B

2. Ramirez SS

3. Braun LF

4. Fielder 1B

5. Hardy 3B

6. Hart RF

7. Cameron CF

8. Kendall

9. Pitcher

 

What kind of offense would that lineup put up? Pitching wise the Brewers would be in trouble though especially with no Sheets but looking at Sheets injury troubles would it really have mattered?

[BrewCrewForever]

I don't think it was a mistake. Sheets had no injury history whatsoever and was coming off a fantastic 2004 season. It was the right thing at that time. It was the first sign that Attanasio wanted to build a winner and we were done just trading all our good players away. I would do it all over again.

[Fatter than Joey]

You still need an arm like Sheets.

 

Signing Ben was awesome

[jhart05]

No, it wasn't.

 

And it won't be next year, when they sign him to a one year deal for $12mm to $15mm.

[giffted1]

No.

 

People quickly forget how great Sheets was for most of the year, up to that huge 1-0 victory over Jake Peavy and the Padres. There's no game at Miller Park tomorrow without Sheets.

[jeffy]

There's no game at Miller Park tomorrow without Sheets.

Yep, it's not even close because with no Sheets, the Brewers are likely not in a position where they would have gone after CC.

[Ennder]

There was no reason to expect Sheets to have injury issues other than him just being a pitcher who had pitched 200 innings a bunch of times which is generally the risky type of pitcher in general.

 

Over those years he pitched 602.1 IP 3.45 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 41-30 record. Can't really complain with the results other than him not being healthy.

 

For what its worth Beckett over that timeframe pitched 758.1 IP, 3.94 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 63-36 record.

[rluzinski]

I'm mot going to speculate about his trade value, so I'll just talk about his production. He averaged a 3.5 ERA and 150 IP for $11 mil/year. If a fan can get over his frustrations of all those injuries and look at it objectively, I can't see how they don't think he was worth the contract. I guess they could have signed another Jeff Suppan. Certainly wouldn't have to worry about him being hurt for the playoffs because the Brewers wouldn't have even sniffed the playoffs.

[adambr2]

No.

 

Now if you want to change the question to, "Was signing Suppan in 2006 a mistake?" I would reply with a resounding "yes".

[Jaylyn]

No, but resigning him this year will be. Also, I agree with you adambr on Suppan.

[mothershipconnection]

Looking at it now, yes, I'd rather have a couple years of Hanley Ramirez instead of 2 comp picks for Sheets. However, if we would have gotten hot and Sheets stayed healthy while we won it all this year, I'd say "no". It's not really fair to look back on several years of failing to win it all and then decide you'd rather be better in the future than in the past.

[nate82]

I touched on the thing about not having Sheets in the rotation. Which even if he does get injured that still leaves us a hole in the pitching department.

 

I don't think it was a bad move at the time. It is something interesting to look at though. I was just wondering what everyone would think about an offense with Ramirez in it compared to having a pitcher like Sheets in the rotation. Which one will give you more wins over the year and which one will make you a contender?

[JimH5]

I don't think it was is mistake to sign him. . .and he'd be fine on a one-year deal.

 

I just have low expectations of his ability to stay healthy. If his forearm is fine, you can pencil him in for 12-14 wins.

 

It's not like he's a worthless pitcher--he's just not what I expected all those years ago.

[kmcasper23]

No, you can't trade quality pitching if you want to win. The fans would have been angry if Brewers traded him in 2005. I agree we will probably resign him to a one year deal though I do not think it will be for $12 mil. His elbow is gonna be a major concern and I don't think anyone will want to give up high draft picks to sign him. Brewers will resign him to a one year incentive laden deal I bet and he tries it all over again next year.

[dadofandrew]

That was a near perfect signing. Signing him long-term now, after his health has been spotty, would be shortsighted.

 

History usually repeats itself. Ignoring the past is not a recipe for success. Hope is not a plan.

[clancyphile]

Neither the Sheets or Suppan signings were bad ideas.

[endaround]

Yep the Sheets signing was a good idea and the Jeff "Hammonds" Suppan signing was a horrible idea

[cwolf2012]

The forearm issues he has right now are very scary. Before this, he's had only one arm related injury (triceps strain?). His value definitely went down by getting injured at the end of the season because forearm issues have been shown to be elbow related. There have been a lot of pitchers who went out with forearm tightness who ended up getting Tommy John.

[dadofandrew]

Suppan still is nowhere near overpaid. Those who fail to see that would be the first ones to complain if they struggled to find guys to fill out the rotation each year. Lohse's numbers gotta be close to Jeff's. Carlos Silva? Padilla? That's what guys make now...you can hope Zach Jackson or Mark DiFelice will step up for $400K and not suck, but that's not a playoff plan, that's just hoping not to only win 70.

[endaround]

He's vastly overpaid. He has a VORP of 3.6 this season. Paying a guy $12.5 m and hope he doesn't suck is not a playoff plan.

[TooLiveBrew]

Unless he improves like a guy aged in his low or mid 20s might next season, Jeff Suppan is not going to be worth $12.5M in 2009. His Ks decreased while his BBs increased in 2008. A FIP of 5.51 certainly isn't worth $12.5M, and I don't think it's very reasonable to expect Soup to improve by a whole lot. I'd be happy if he could get down to 2008 Silva territory, but even that would be a big correction. Maybe Soup's career FIP of 4.80 is a reasonable target/hope.

 

 

2008 FIP (per Fangraphs):

 

Carlos Silva - 4.63

Vicente Padilla - 5.03

Kyle Lohse - 3.89

[JoeHova]

Suppan still is nowhere near overpaid. Those who fail to see that would be the first ones to complain if they struggled to find guys to fill out the rotation each year.

 

 

 

I disagree. I don't believe any team would take Suppan's salary off of the Brewers' hands, much less give anything in return for him. That makes him overpaid and also cripples the team's ability to try to keep Sheets or Sabathia. If I'm wrong, I'll be very happy, but I think Suppan has significant negative value at this point. Sure he'll give you 180 innings but he's entering Livan Hernandez territory in terms of baserunners allowed and lack of K's. He's a collapsing house of cards, imo.

[dadofandrew]

He hasn't collapsed yet, but you may be right at some point, Joe. His ERA was right on his career norms, except for the few starts he pitched injured before the all-star break.

 

You'll see teams make similar deals on SP's this offseason, I'm sure. His deal has 2 years left, so it's far from crippling. Some small market teams would not have interest because they can't afford him, but plenty of teams would take him if he were waived...that's limited value, but far from negative.

 

The risk with Jeff is what happens if he declines. Of course, that risk exists with any long-term deal.

[TooLiveBrew]

He hasn't collapsed yet

 

I think he has. I think 2008 was a horrid season both for what he did on the mound & for what should be expected for Jeff to produce in his age 34 season.

 

 

plenty of teams would take him if he were waived...that's limited value, but far from negative.

 

I thought you just said he would be worth his $12.5M.

[JoeHova]

plenty of teams would take him if he were waived...that's limited value, but far from negative.

 

 

 

I hope you're right.