Does the offense need a dramatic overhaul during the offseason?

[TooLiveBrew]

Escobar wasn't drafted.

 

*slinks away*

 

I would imagine Jack Z would have some input on signing young FAs or perhaps the regions & positions to be scouted, but I really don't know if he'd be there personally scouting and/or interacting with someone like Escobar prior to Alcides signing a contract.

 

To be fair, I should acknowledge that AJAY's point on the drafting strategy under Zduriencik is mostly true. I just don't agree with placing the absolutist "we always end up drafting..." on it. I do realize that it was more of a general point, though.

[nate82]

I have no idea where the notion that we should dump Cameron, who was basically a top-10 CF in all of MLB, has come from... well, aside from people that are allergic to strikeouts beating the same drum over & over again.

DeJesus is a cheaper and younger version of Cameron minus the strike outs and the gold gloves. OK maybe not an exact copy of Cameron but he is cheaper and younger than Cameron. I would rather have DeJesus and his contract over Cameron and his contract and age. Cameron was great for the Brewers this year I just don't think Cameron is worth $10 million for a season.

 

Even if DeJesus doesn't bring in that many runs compared to Cameron or Weeks it is still an improvement for the OBP and another LH bat. The Brewers need more patient hitters in the lineup right now. The power is there and I could live with Braun, Fielder, and Hardy as being the guys providing the majority of the power in the lineup. You will still have guys like Branyan, Hall, and Weeks in the lineup. Guys who when they get hot can give you a couple of days where they will carry the load for a Braun, Fielder, or Hardy.

[endaround]

I'd much prefer seeing Escobar spend some time in AAA, but i have a question for you stat fanatics? I don't read up much on stats, but i know what BABIP is. When you're talking about a hitter with great speed like Escobar has, he's going to beat out more infield singles than your average player who has normal speed. So wouldn't that have to be considered when talking about his BABIP?

 

Yes, but his BABIP in AA was .375 and that is too high to believe it can be maintained. While you might expect Escobar to be above the normal .300, .375 is astronomically high. You move that down to a more believable .340 (still fairly high) and Escobar's numbers become .293/.327/.399.

[Ennder]

I have no idea where the notion that we should dump Cameron, who was basically a top-10 CF in all of MLB, has come from... well, aside from people that are allergic to strikeouts beating the same drum over & over again.

 

We don't have very many movable parts on the offense and Cameron is one of them. If we want to improve the team OBP next year the most realistic scenarios are a new 3B or a new CF. While Cameron did a great job this year for us it is hard to call him a bargain at his price so if we can find a way to get a player who fits our needs a little more (left handed, higher OBP) it is one of the more logical positions to look at.

 

My personal guess is Cameron is back next year though.

[clancyphile]

But Scott Brosius plays the game right!

 

Russ and others have said it before, but I'll repeat it. As a fan, watching small ball might be more exciting, but aestethically pleasing baseball doesn't necessarily mean you'll win more games.

 

Run distribution is extraordinarily random, and even the teams that play "small ball" will have wild swings over the course of a season. There really isn't any correlation between the "style" of offense a team has and the run distribution.

 

 

And Ryan Braun back to third? That's 100% counterproductive to trying to win more games.

If the Crew can get a left fielder that outproduces the Hall/Counsell platoon at third (say, Raul Ibanez), the offense emerges as much better.

 

2b: Weeks

ss: Hardy

3b: Braun

1b: Fielder

rf: Hart

lf: Ibanez

cf: Cameron

c: Kendall

 

Is there a third baseman available on the market that could provide better production than Ibanez, who has an OPS+ of 124 from last year,and whose OPS+ has been over 115 for the last five years?

 

EDIT: And did I mention Ibanez bats left-handed? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[BrewCrewForever]

I just can't imagine why anyone would want Braun back at 3B. He made a ton of errors at 3B and already in hist first season ever playing the OF is an above average LF who I believe will one day win gold gloves in the OF. He was toward the top of the list in OF assists and made numerous highlight catches. Yes he had that awful play in Chicago that should have been an error but man his future looks very good out in LF.

 

I would love it if we could swing trades for DeJesus and Beltre. Do your magic Doug!

[brewjihad]

Is there a third baseman available on the market that could provide better production than Ibanez, who has an OPS+ of 124 from last year,and whose OPS+ has been over 115 for the last five years?

 

No, but you just can't completely ignore defense. Braun almost cancelled out his offensive value as a rookie by being as bad as he was at third base. Even if you expect him to improve at third, the team would be worse with Braun at third and Ibanez in left than it would be with Braun in left and a league average third basemen with league average defense.

 

If the Brewers just wanted to upgrade their offense, they could sign Frank Thomas and put him at short and Barry Bonds come in to play center. But that doesn't make the team better, and that's the point.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Without looking up the numbers, I'm willing to bet even Pedro Feliz saves as many runs over Braun's defense at 3B than Braun creates compared to Feliz with his bat.

 

Just because someone has a glove and has played a position in the past doesn't mean they should. I'm not really part of the "small ball/fundamental/playing the game right" religion, but if you fail to take defense into account it's going to cost you a lot of games.

 

Braun was one of (if not THE) worst third basemen ever. Ever.

[TooLiveBrew]

While Cameron did a great job this year for us it is hard to call him a bargain at his price so if we can find a way to get a player who fits our needs a little more (left handed, higher OBP) it is one of the more logical positions to look at.

 

I agree he's not a bargain, but at $10M Cam is also relatively reasonably priced for a CF -- and the fact that it'd only be a one-year imo makes it even more palatable. It would be great to find a LH, high(er) OBP guy to capably man CF, but I'm just not sure that will be very easy to do. And since at least Sabathia's salary won't be on the books, the money is there for a one-year flyer. The other aspect that I value highly is Cameron's defense. I think having a very good CF is important right now as both Braun & Hart don't (yet) always take the best routes to balls. On balance, I don't know if we can realistically improve upon Cameron without creating a hole elsewhere in the organization, though I agree on the 'movable part' categorization.

[dadofandrew]

If they sign a FA SP, for example, they may not be able to pay Mike $10M, though he may be happy to tear that up and play for $5-7M, or maybe he wants to maximize his salary, that's up to him.

 

However, on the merits of his play, you're certainly not going to improve CF much. I have to believe replacing him with Gwynn would have cost the Brewers more wins than the 3B group did below a guy like Beltre.

[JJHardy7]

I just can't imagine why anyone would want Braun back at 3B. He made a ton of errors at 3B and already in hist first season ever playing the OF is an above average LF who I believe will one day win gold gloves in the OF.

 

I was in the camp and still think Braun should've never been removed from 3b. The main problem is that he was rushed. That being said now that Braun is a year removed from 3b he shouldn't be playing there. Anything he could've developed this year is gone and he's probably gotten worse. The only situation I see him playing 3b is in a 18 inning game and there's some freak injury that forces him there.

 

I'd be more interested in moving Braun to CF, but I think I might wait a year or two on that. He was pretty good in the OF this year given his position change, but like others have noted he did play somewhat deep. If Braun is ever able to play an above average CF and stays healthy he will be a Hall of Famer and possibly one of the best to ever play CF (in terms of the total package).

[logan82]

TooLiveBrew wrote:

To be fair, I should acknowledge that AJAY's point on the drafting strategy under Zduriencik is mostly true. I just don't agree with placing the absolutist "we always end up drafting..." on it. I do realize that it was more of a general point, though.

You might not have gotten to see it, but there was a show on the Brewers and their drafting strategy that was shown at least every other week during the season. Jack Z stated that their drafting strategy was drafting speed and power. Power bats and power arms. Then develop the rest of the player's skills in the minors. They are not leaving the players in the minors long enough to let them become complete players.

 

Edit: Not that they would ever develop into complete players. Most of our players have been rushed through the minors.

[dadofandrew]

Yep, Jack Z basically says since so few guys can hit for power, throw hard (and throw LH hard); that's what they look for. Again, most of the dissent is just cliches, it's the big things that win games. Teams that score a lot of runs and prevent their opponent from scoring win a lot more games than those that bunt at an above average clip.

 

I loved it last night when BOS led off with a double in the 9th, Youkilis made no attempt to hit behind the runner, and made a 5-3 out. Drew followed with a HR hit about 450 feet...that's major league baseball. I'll take that any day of the week. Note that BOS also played with their 1B (granted a former 3B) at 3B and a career CF at 1B, and never batted an eye.

 

Of course, no one will even discuss this, because it is not the story the old, failing media wants to tell.

[Ennder]

While Cameron did a great job this year for us it is hard to call him a bargain at his price so if we can find a way to get a player who fits our needs a little more (left handed, higher OBP) it is one of the more logical positions to look at.

 

I agree he's not a bargain, but at $10M Cam is also relatively reasonably priced for a CF -- and the fact that it'd only be a one-year imo makes it even more palatable. It would be great to find a LH, high(er) OBP guy to capably man CF, but I'm just not sure that will be very easy to do. And since at least Sabathia's salary won't be on the books, the money is there for a one-year flyer. The other aspect that I value highly is Cameron's defense. I think having a very good CF is important right now as both Braun & Hart don't (yet) always take the best routes to balls. On balance, I don't know if we can realistically improve upon Cameron without creating a hole elsewhere in the organization, though I agree on the 'movable part' categorization.

I dont' disagree with this at all which is why i said I think we keep Cameron. Last year I want a LH high OBP CF but there really wasn't one available so I was on board with the Cameron signing. I don't see a free agent that fits the bill this year either so I'm fine with keeping him. I'd like to see him sit a bit more next year though, he is not a young man and CF is a demanding position and while the whole team slumped in sept that doesn't mean he didn't wear down some too.

[reillymcshane]

The brewers do not need a major overhaul.

 

In the NL, they finished 7th in runs scored (and when the chips are down, it's not about how you score runs, it's how many you score). Hart, Fielder, Hardy, Braun, Weeks are all heading into their prime years, and all of them (save for Hardy), have put up better numbers. All of them can improve. And if Cameron is around for a full season, that will help things. 3B is the main issue, but if you're stuck with a Branyon/Hall platoon, so be it. Rickie, we all hope, improves, but maybe what he is is simply what he showed throughout his career: a .245 hitter who will hit 15 HR, steal 25 bases and get on at a .350 clip. Even with his bad defense, there are worse things we could have.

 

Personally, I'd like a good, consistent LH bat at 3B, but I don't see one of those out there without paying a ton (or someone like Brian Roberts at 2B - who'd be perfect for the team - but again, at what cost in prospects/players, and then he's only signed for one year). Someone suggested Beltre at 3B - but he's a righty (which is okay, just not ideal), and we'd have to trade something of value to get him.

 

I think we get frustrated because it's easy to see lack of execution in certain situations for the Crew. And when it costs us, we point out those flaws, without recognizing what good qualities this team has as hitters (and how those qualities have won us games).

 

Ultimately, is it frustrating when we have a lead off double followed by two straight strikeouts? Sure it is. In fact, it's maddening. But it's also nice to to hit 200+ HR. Not being a good 'small ball' team will hurt us at times, especially when we need that one run. Buut often it's a moot point when you've jacked a HR or two and put the team in the lead already.

 

If guys stay healthy, go into the season a bit more relaxed, they have potential to surpass 200 HR (they had 198 in 2008). Here's rundown of how the main guys could produce in 2009:

 

Kendal/Rivera - 5 HR

Prince: 40

Weeks: 15

Hardy: 25

Branyon: 20

Hall: 10

Braun: 40

Cameron: 25

Hart: 25

 

That's 205 from the main guys (and I think we could easily be better). Reserves would not doubt add a few more.

 

This team (which consists of most of the same main players) hit 231 HR and scored 51 extra runs in 2007 . The potential is there to achieve those same numbers again - or at least get close to it. I know it's not all about HRs, but most of these guys - Rickie, Prince, Cameron, Hall, Braun, Hart - can not only hit HRs, but they can hit for higher average and get on base at a higher percentage.

 

So, I don't think we need to freak out. If we can find a 3B, great. If not, go with what we have. The offense will be better, and that would, hopefully, offset the expected drop in pitching (assuming sheets and CC leave). Pitching might not be that bad, if Gallardo steps up, and Parra, Bush and McClung show improvement as they have this year. Again, nothing great, but perhaps not that horrible. Defense will no doubt be shaky in some spots, but it is what it is.

 

And not freaking out would allow us to make an in season move if needed - like with Sabathia. If we have payroll flexibility, perhaps you make a deal mid-season if there's an injury, or the rotation really needs help, or someone is simply regressing.

 

Plus, we allow guys like Escobar and Gamel to mature in AAA - and they can provide a boost if someone goes down or we need a replacement.

 

All in all, the hitters are certainly flawed. We don't get on base enough is the crux of things, but we can offset that with tremendous power. Our key players are entering the primes of their careers, and can improve in OBP as well as their power.

 

That be my thoughts.

[hauser42]

Weeks I think could be on the trading block this offseason. He has struggles so much and the team could find themselves a 2B that could bet on base and play solid D.

Cameron is not going anywhere this offseason. He put up numbers close to his career avg, I dont know what some people thought Brewers were getting with him, but he did what he was suppose to do. Dejesus or Gwynn are not going to any kind of improvement over Cameron, they would actually regress the team. Those two players could add somethings to the club cheaper salaries, more weak ground outs, lot of time sitting on the bench with fast legs.

Hart hopefully can comeback after a poor second half, and be good for all a whole season. He has a lot of potential to be a key cog in the lineup but he looked very lost during the second half of the season. If he would have played better maybe the Brewers would have more thought of moving him to CF and filling in RF with a new part.

[jhart05]

Rickie, we all hope, improves, but maybe what he is is simply what he showed throughout his career: a .245 hitter who will hit 15 HR, steal 25 bases and get on at a .350 clip. Even with his bad defense, there are worse things we could have.

 

 

Those numbers would put Rickie above average for a lead off hitter.

 

Plus I think it is reasonable to assume, he can improve on those career numbers, since he is going into the so-called "prime years" of an athletes career.

 

It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, if Rickie is starting at 2B and leading off, next year for the Crew.

[twobrewers]

Without looking up the numbers, I'm willing to bet even Pedro Feliz saves as many runs over Braun's defense at 3B than Braun creates compared to Feliz with his bat.

I believe when this arguement came up over the winter (And the Brewers were looking at Feliz) we discussed these numbers. I think Feliz saved around 25 runs - while Braun gave up an extra 25 runs. So it was around a 50 run differential. That is HUGE.

[TooLiveBrew]

And not freaking out would allow us to make an in season move if needed - like with Sabathia. If we have payroll flexibility, perhaps you make a deal mid-season if there's an injury, or the rotation really needs help, or someone is simply regressing.

 

I think this is a very salient point. I also agree with much of your (great) post, reilly. While adding a player in the offseason certainly makes everyone feel good, sometimes you don't know what you've got with a team until a bit into the season. If you give up a prospect or two to add a guy, and the team goes out & just doesn't win enough (think 2008 Tigers), then you might have wasted the add & prospect(s).

 

I personally don't think 2009 is going to be a 'go for it' season like this one has been, so I'd hate to see us give up good value for a one-year patch, only to see a major injury like Gallardo's this season make the addition kind of a moot point. But if the Brewers are in the mix around the deadline & there's good reason to expect that to continue, by all means, I'd want to see Melvin/GM fire away.

[MNBrew]

Discussion has slowed but I'll still chip in a few thoughts. Overall principle: a few accurate tweaks, not an overhaul.

 

1. Re-sign CC. Stud pitching helps a ton, and his decent bat for a pitcher is gravy. Sorry, not about the offense, but that's such an important move for '09 and beyond. Let Sheets go, esp. if they can keep CC. Anyway, back to the offense....

 

2. Dump Hall however it has to get done. Pay for Suppan's way out of town while they're at it, too. It'd probably mean a move for someone else's ugly contract, but who knows? Mota was turned out mostly well besides his one ugly month. What you'd have to take on is a question mark, but who knows. If the M's would do it, would you do Hall & Suppan for Bedard for the possible but inevitably delayed positive return?

 

3. Don't overreact to Hart's bad last month. He's been horrid but that's so out of line with the rest of his career, which was always figured to be 25 HR & 25 SB anyway, lots of doubles, and a .290 BA. Let the offseason rest do what it needs to for him.

 

4. To keep Mike Cameron or go for Bobby Abreu? I favor Abreu & move Hart over to CF. There would be a bit of a defensive drop but should be much improved overall offensive production.

 

5. 3B? If they don't end up with Beltre or Blalock in a deal, move Hardy over and put Escobar at SS. Have a better backup plan than Counsell.

 

6. Bench? Start by keeping Kapler & Rivera, consider keeping Gwynn (#5 OF) & Dillon, hmmm....

[TooLiveBrew]

3. Don't overreact to Hart's bad last month. He's been horrid but that's so out of line with the rest of his career, which was always figured to be 25 HR & 25 SB anyway, lots of doubles, and a .290 BA. Let the offseason rest do what it needs to for him.

 

While I agree that we shouldn't overreact to Corey's struggles, it wasn't just September. What worries me is his inability for most of the season to get on base, and his OBP by month for the season were:

 

.355

.342

.292

.301

.310

.192

 

Especially given his recent comment on not wanting to draw walks, I think there's plenty of reason to be concerned going forward... just not enough to make me think he's never going to hit again. Also, Hardy has said he will not move off SS.

[clancyphile]

Discussion has slowed but I'll still chip in a few thoughts. Overall principle: a few accurate tweaks, not an overhaul.

 

1. Re-sign CC. Stud pitching helps a ton, and his decent bat for a pitcher is gravy. Sorry, not about the offense, but that's such an important move for '09 and beyond. Let Sheets go, esp. if they can keep CC. Anyway, back to the offense....

 

2. Dump Hall however it has to get done. Pay for Suppan's way out of town while they're at it, too. It'd probably mean a move for someone else's ugly contract, but who knows? Mota was turned out mostly well besides his one ugly month. What you'd have to take on is a question mark, but who knows. If the M's would do it, would you do Hall & Suppan for Bedard for the possible but inevitably delayed positive return?

 

3. Don't overreact to Hart's bad last month. He's been horrid but that's so out of line with the rest of his career, which was always figured to be 25 HR & 25 SB anyway, lots of doubles, and a .290 BA. Let the offseason rest do what it needs to for him.

 

4. To keep Mike Cameron or go for Bobby Abreu? I favor Abreu & move Hart over to CF. There would be a bit of a defensive drop but should be much improved overall offensive production.

 

5. 3B? If they don't end up with Beltre or Blalock in a deal, move Hardy over and put Escobar at SS. Have a better backup plan than Counsell.

 

6. Bench? Start by keeping Kapler & Rivera, consider keeping Gwynn (#5 OF) & Dillon, hmmm....

1. Re-signing CC has to be priority #1.

2. Disagree. Hall is still a decent sub, and RH bat against lefties. Over-priced, but better than nothing.

3. Agreed.

4. Keep Cameron - it's for one year, and the Brewers may have other options in the minors.

5. 3B - BIG issue. The best solution for the OFFENSE would be to sign Ibanez, put him in left, and move Braun to third. But that raises issues about defense. The good news is that Taylor Green may be ready in 2010 - so, it's really a matter of a one-year stopgap.

6. Bench: Rottino, Rivera, Gwynn, Dillon, and Hall could all contribute.

[MNBrew]

Hart's OBP wasn't great all year but only atrocious in September, and it was magnified by his awful batting slump. His age and the overall package of his skills suggest he could still improve.

 

He's one guy who could use that 140-mph tennis ball batting machine that Loretta & Cirillo used to improve their eyes at the plate.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm not a big fan of David DeJesus. Doesn't seem to do anything particularly well. Pretty much an average player. His name is tossed around quite a bit here so I'm guessing that he has a high on base percentage.

 

Now I'm sure to get roasted here, but how about seeing if the Angels would do a Gary Matthews for Jeff Suppan swap? Though I've been on record as saying the Matthews deal is one of the worst contracts in MLB history, he's basically Mike Cameron lite. Cameron's and Matthews salaries for next year are basically a wash. This is probably one of the only realistic ways that they could dump Suppan.

 

I see it like this:

 

Option A: Suppan + Cameron 2009 = $22.5 million

Option B: Suppan alone 2009 - $12.5 million

Option C: Matthews alone 2009 = $10 million

 

I'll take option C, which would essentially be Matthews and $2.5-$12.5 million to play with (depending on what you think the team will do with the payroll).

[BrewCrewForever]

While I agree that we shouldn't overreact to Corey's struggles, it wasn't just September. What worries me is his inability for most of the season to get on base, and his OBP by month for the season were:

.355
.342
.292
.301
.310
.192

 

Great point TooLive. As much as I think Corey will not be this bad and will be a good player. If KC is would do DeJesus for Hart straight up I would pull that trigger in a heartbeat. But if Corey is back that is fine to.