Does the offense need a dramatic overhaul during the offseason?

[homer]

1. Fire Skaalen. The plate discipline has steadily gotten worse and some of the blame belongs with the hitting coach. I know it's up to the player to perform, but a young team needs good coaching to help them adjust as the season goes on, and the hitters did not.

 

They fired Wynegar and that didn't really do much. I think most hitting coaches are a joke to be quite honest.

[TooLiveBrew]

Any thoughts on the pros and cons of a straight up Weeks for Robinson Cano deal? Cano had a bad year, but it wasn't awful and he'd definitely improve the infield defense. A change of scenery might be good for both of them. Cano hitting left handed might help balance the lineup too.

 

Cano is a very solid fielder, and I'm not sure where the notion comes from that he's anything less than well above-average. He has good range, soft hands, a strong (enough) & very accurate arm, with a nice quick release when he needs to hustle the turn on a DP. The problem with adding Cano over Weeks is that, while we'd be adding another LHB, Cano has drawn just 99 BBs in 2,362 career PA. Robinson actually had a very good second half (.307/.333/.482/.815) after an horrific first half (.246/.285/.358/.643).

 

In addition, Cano, while a LHB, actually performed far better against LHP (.794 OPS) than RHP (.683) this year -- though his career splits are more traditional (v. RHP - .818; v. LHP - .766). If the Yanks indeed made Cano available for Weeks (I highly doubt it), I think it would be worth investigating. Pairing him with J.J. (& perhaps eventually Escobar) would be a thing of beauty in terms of IF defense.

 

 

I believe next year would be the last year of a contract for Adrian Beltre and the Mariners are likely shopping him around. His road splits are very good and getting out of Safeco should help him. Any interest?

 

I am a HUGE Beltre fan, and after watching him play for about a season & a half, I can say with confidence that you won't find a better defensive 3B in the league. He makes plays a 3B just has no business making, and makes the routine ones too. Beltre would be a fantastic addition for this team.

 

 

There has been some interest in Beltre in random threads in the trade forum. While he isn't the ideal acquisition (hits LHPs better, doesn't carry the highest OBP), he would be a very nice stopgap at 3B, and is definitely one of my favorite options that should be available that I hope the Brewers target.

 

I think a good comparison for what kind of production to expect if Beltre is added would be Cameron's 2008 -- but with fewer BBs & slightly fewer Ks. When you add in the caliber of defense Beltre provides, I think he'd be a no-brainer addition. However, that would be the case for many contending teams. The Mariners should be very active in shopping him this offseason, so his price likely wouldn't be cheap... and neither would be the price to extend him beyond 2009.

[nate82]

Cano, Weeks, Ellis, and Polanco

 

NAME	E	DP	RF	ZR
Mark Ellis, Oak	4	88	5.02	.868
Placido Polanco, Det	8	100	5.22	.833
Brian Roberts, Bal	8	110	4.98	.829
Rickie Weeks, Mil	15	84	5.02	.815
Robinson Cano, NYY	13	103	5.15	.810

This is ranked by zone rating. Weeks is 9th, Ellis 1st, Polanco 5th, Roberts 6th, and Cano is 10th. Ranked by range factor Polanco 3rd, Cano 6th, Weeks 9th, Ellis 10th, and Roberts 12th. So you do lose some defense with Roberts and you gain defensively with Polanco and Ellis and it is a wash with Cano. This is based on trading Weeks for any one of these players either through trade or free agency.

 

This year Orlando Hudson had a RF of 4.82 and a ZR of .790. That is well below the numbers that Weeks put up this year.

[dadofandrew]

Given he only has a year left on his deal and makes a lot of cash ($12M), Beltre probably will not cost much in terms of players, as few teams will be willing to pay him, he is likely to only have a suitor or two.

 

I just looked at his splits, and his road numbers are just off the charts better in 3 of his last 4 years. Safeco has crushed his production, without a doubt. He's also going into his final big contract year, so he'll be motivated, though I have no doubt if he has been in the past.

[jhart05]

1. Fire Skaalen. The plate discipline has steadily gotten worse and some of the blame belongs with the hitting coach. I know it's up to the player to perform, but a young team needs good coaching to help them adjust as the season goes on, and the hitters did not.

 

They fired Wynegar and that didn't really do much. I think most hitting coaches are a joke to be quite honest.

 

 

 

IMO, once a player gets to the Majors, the hitting coach is little more than a psychologist.

[Patrick425]

They fired Wynegar and that didn't really do much. I think most hitting coaches are a joke to be quite honest.

What I think is more of a joke is the ego of some of today's ball players. I know that if I'm making 10, 20, 30 times the amount of money that my "boss" is making, it's going to be hard for me to accept that he might know more than I know about my profession. Regardless of what players may say in an interview, I think many of them are unwilling to change their ways based on the coaching of someone who had very little success as a player in the majors and in some cases (Skaalan - if I'm not mistaken) not even one AB in the majors.

[dadofandrew]

Hitting coaches have next to zero correlation, much like clutch hitting. They make a very minor difference, especially to anyone but young/utility players.

[clancyphile]

Third base drew such attention because Hall has seriously underachieved the last two years.

I understand there is a bit of a hole at 3rd base right now. However, your prototypical 3b is not a high OBP, lead off type guy. IMHO, finding that high OBP type guy would be the first step that I would hope the Brewers would consider in the offseason in an effort to improve the offense.

Finding such an outfielder would have been easier this past offseason - or this offseason, just keep Braun at third base.

[nate82]

Finding such an outfielder would have been easier this past offseason - or this offseason, just keep Braun at third base.

No. Braun is better defensively at LF than he was at 3B. I would rather have Hardy move over to 3B than having Braun back at 3B. If Hardy doesn't want to move over to 3B to bad move over there anyways. If Hardy wants to be selfish like that sure he can go and take the Sheffield route I wouldn't advise doing that though.

[TooLiveBrew]

This year Orlando Hudson had a RF of 4.82 and a ZR of .790. That is well below the numbers that Weeks put up this year.

 

And if you watch the two play on at least a semi-regular basis, you are shown how unreliable defensive metrics are at this point. Hudson is a better defender than Weeks, probably by far. I am big into the sabermetric & statistical side of analyzing the game (though I'm very far from being well-versed), and I think that -- as of now -- all the defensive stats do is create confusion.

 

At times, Rickie is unfairly bashed here without recognition that his athletic ability & the ground he can cover is extremely valuable at 2B (see: any 'Durham is way better on D!' comment). However, when the stats start showing things like 'Rickie was better than Orlando Hudson', that's a big red flag imo. Hudson certainly is a bit overrated on D, but he's definitely better than Weeks.

 

 

Given he only has a year left on his deal and makes a lot of cash ($12M), Beltre probably will not cost much in terms of players, as few teams will be willing to pay him, he is likely to only have a suitor or two.

 

$12M for Beltre in a non-pitcher's park is a very good price. I think there will be plenty of suitors... or at least enough to drive up the asking price.

[dadofandrew]

Hudson may well have been poor for much of 2008, as he was hurt much of the season.

[TooLiveBrew]

Good point, doa -- thanks. I think in terms of 'true talent' (or whatever you call it for defense), though, Hudson is clearly a much better option on defense than Weeks.

[clancyphile]

Finding such an outfielder would have been easier this past offseason - or this offseason, just keep Braun at third base.

No. Braun is better defensively at LF than he was at 3B. I would rather have Hardy move over to 3B than having Braun back at 3B. If Hardy doesn't want to move over to 3B to bad move over there anyways. If Hardy wants to be selfish like that sure he can go and take the Sheffield route I wouldn't advise doing that though.

Except, once again, moving Braun back to third means that the Brewers would simply have to find an outfielder who could be their OBP guy. that sort of outfielder will come far cheaper because they're easier to find.

 

Hardy gets to stay at shortstop (Escobar may be a good one, but we KNOW Hardy is one of the best in the majors) as well. Escobar could then be used as part of a package to try to net a starting pticher or two.

 

The job is to put the best eight everyday players in the field. Braun at third and a new LF could be a much better option than a new 3B and Braun in left.

[TooLiveBrew]

Except, once again, moving Braun back to third means that the Brewers would simply have to find an outfielder who could be their OBP guy. that sort of outfielder will come far cheaper because they're easier to find.

 

And we would once again see Braun negate most or all of his offensive value by returning to a position at which he was tragically, historically bad -- and a full year removed from playing it, to boot. The OF fits Braun's skillset. 3B does not.

[Ennder]

Braun more or less lost all of his value by playing 3B, that is how bad his defense was. He has gone from a historically bad 3B to an above average LF, I wouldn't change a thing there.

[AJAY]

Yes, offense definitely needs an overhaul.

 

But I think the problem goes deeper into the front office. I am convinved that our GM doesn't appreciate well-rounded baseball players who play the game properly. He seems to collect players who all fit the same profile but fit poorly together as a group. We always end up drafting the same kind of one-dimensional slugger who can't play defense or do the other little things like hitting for average, bunting, hitting-and-running, drawing walks, etc. I would love to switch to more of a Minnesota Twins philosophy where you have to play all aspects of the game properly to be drafted and promoted through the system. I really miss fundamentals, balance, and execution. I also think we would get more bang for our buck.

 

In terms of next season, I don't want to see Cameron or Weeks back. They both are just way too flawed and inconsistent, and frankly I am tired of it. Weeks has all the speed in the world and yet he rarely bunts or steals bases. He doesn't seem to make adjustments in his swing either.

 

I want Mike Rivera to get much more playing time to give Kendall a rest and to boost our offense. I think Kendall would benefit too. I don't want to see a Hall/Counsell platoon at third either. I don't need high-priced superstars as replacements. Just some basic all-around players that most teams seem to have.

 

I can't think of any current players, but can we find a Scott Brosius, Kevin Seitzer, Fernando Vina, Mark Loretta, Mike Fontenot, etc.? I want to add THREE of these kind of players to our lineup. I don't care for their lack of power because I am starting to believe in diminishing returns for each additional homerun hitter you add to the lineup. Braun, Fielder, Hardy, and Hart should be good enough for power . . . and so now we need better all-around complementary pieces.

[dadofandrew]

Ajay, many of those players are simply not very good. OXS was once again 98% accurate in predicting runs scored, so you can't lower that and still expect to score more runs. As I point out, but it does not seem to get discussed because it's not fun, OBP used to be undervalued, and now, it's all but impossible to find league average OBP available for anything but a high price, in both salary and trade cost. If you find cheap OBP, it's going to have warts. That's one reason Weeks still has oodles of value, even after "only" hitting his career norms...he gets on base, and when he does, he scores.

 

And, let's not forget they were an above average offensive team. One decent 3B might make this an upper echelon offense...I believe PHIL was .007 higher in both OBP and SLG, and they were 2nd in runs scored.

 

When a car has a flat tire, the easiest thing to do is change the tire. I'll save overhauling the engine for another time.

 

EDIT: For example, Brosius had 200 AB's 9 times in his career, and he had a OBP of .307 or less 5 times. Adding an automatic out to the lineup won't do any good, even if he does occasionally hit a ground ball to 2B to advance a runner.

[DuWayne Steurer]

But Scott Brosius plays the game right!

 

Russ and others have said it before, but I'll repeat it. As a fan, watching small ball might be more exciting, but aestethically pleasing baseball doesn't necessarily mean you'll win more games.

 

Run distribution is extraordinarily random, and even the teams that play "small ball" will have wild swings over the course of a season. There really isn't any correlation between the "style" of offense a team has and the run distribution.

 

 

And Ryan Braun back to third? That's 100% counterproductive to trying to win more games.

[danzig6767]

Here's what I would like to see next season:

1. Fire Skaalen. The plate discipline has steadily gotten worse and some of the blame belongs with the hitting coach. I know it's up to the player to perform, but a young team needs good coaching to help them adjust as the season goes on, and the hitters did not.

I don't get the constant yelling to fire the hitting coach we see nearly every year. I have a hard time believing that Skaalen wasn't regularly telling Corey Hart that his refusal to take sliders off the plate was killing his production. Some athletes simply don't listen even though it should be obvious that certain things they do hurt their production. It does seem amazing that Hart could keep stepping to the plate and swinging at the same garbage that even casual fans watching on TV knew was coming, but if Corey couldn't grasp the painfully obvious by himself, i highly doubt any hitting coach was going to get through to him. Last game was such a prime example. Myers is really struggling to throw strikes and just walked Hardy to load the bases. I said to my buddy, Myers is going to throw him a slider/curve off the plate, Hart will either roll over the ball for a DP or end up striking out. Everyone watching seemed to know what was about to happen except Corey as he swing at the first pitch off the plate for a DP. For a guy blessed with incredible bae running instincts, Corey has rocks for brains sometimes at the plate, hitting coaches can't give brain transplants.

 

Pitchers have been attacking Hart the same way for over a month and even though they often make him look flat out silly at the plate, he just keeps hacking.

[markedman5]

Braun will never play 3rd again. He is the face of the franchise, was horrible at 3rd and hated playing it.

 

He moved when the team asked him and was happy to do it.

 

No way they ever move him back.

[dadofandrew]

I just did a post at Ramblings which magically replaced our 3B group with Beltre's career road production (which is far better than his overall numbers, by the way).

 

Adding him alone bumps the team to the upper third in the NL in run production. Meanwhile, a guy like Mark Loretta would actually decrease what the '08 guys accomplished, even though his OBP is nice, his SLG is horrible...Hall and Branyan hit a lot of HR's, even though they had warts.

 

Also, Dejesus, who I like mind you, does not compare favorably to either Cameron or Weeks (CF or leadoff). You can argue that Dave at $5M is better than Mike at $10M (I may side with the Dave folks, to be honest, especially as Mike gets another year older), but thinking that Dejesus' would help just by stepping foot on the field is incorrect.

[TooLiveBrew]

As I point out, but it does not seem to get discussed because it's not fun, OBP used to be undervalued, and now, it's all but impossible to find league average OBP available for anything but a high price, in both salary and trade cost.

 

Are you claiming to be the only person that knows that OBP is no longer undervalued? I think that's pretty much common knowledge, and that's why people aren't really discussing it.

 

 

I am convinved that our GM doesn't appreciate well-rounded baseball players who play the game properly. He seems to collect players who all fit the same profile but fit poorly together as a group. We always end up drafting the same kind of one-dimensional slugger who can't play defense or do the other little things like hitting for average, bunting, hitting-and-running, drawing walks, etc.

 

Melvin has said that he basically leaves the drafting to Jack Z. And aside from that, Zduriencik has drafted Hardy, Escobar, Fielder (draws BBs better than any other Brewer), TGJ, etc. Right now the team didn't have the kind of OBP that I think Melvin felt he had assembled heading into 2008. Having very disappointing overall seasons from Weeks, Hall, & Hart is simply something a GM cannot control or realistically take into consideration. Honestly, heading into this season, I was happy & felt that Melvin had done a nice job adding OBP/BB talent to the lineup.

 

 

Adding [beltre] alone bumps the team to the upper third in the NL in run production.

 

Interesting -- and that's without taking into consideration how many runs his glovework would save. I will continue to dream about adding Beltre.

 

 

Also, Dejesus, who I like mind you, does not compare favorably to either Cameron or Weeks (CF or leadoff).

 

I have no idea where the notion that we should dump Cameron, who was basically a top-10 CF in all of MLB, has come from... well, aside from people that are allergic to strikeouts beating the same drum over & over again.

[trwi7]

Zduriencik has drafted Escobar

Escobar wasn't drafted.

[piccione88]

Who is more responsible for picking up undrafted free agents? Is it the GM, Scouting Director, or is it mainly an individual scout?

[danzig6767]

I just don't see Escobar being the answer. Yeah he would help the defense but he'd be lucky to put up Counsel's numbers offensively. Kendall, Escobar, Pitcher would be just ugly at the bottom of the order. Escobar isn't major league ready and a year of inflated BABIP in AA doesn't really change that.

I'd much prefer seeing Escobar spend some time in AAA, but i have a question for you stat fanatics? I don't read up much on stats, but i know what BABIP is. When you're talking about a hitter with great speed like Escobar has, he's going to beat out more infield singles than your average player who has normal speed. So wouldn't that have to be considered when talking about his BABIP?