Does the offense need a dramatic overhaul during the offseason?

[DougJones43]

Some 2008 statistics to consider:

 [u]STAT[/u] [u]NL RNK [/u]RUNS 750 7th BA .253 12th OBP .325 10th SLG .431 5th OPS .757 6th HR 198 3rd RISP .245 15th K 1203 5th 

I think it's fair to say that looking at the most important end of the season stat, runs scored, the Brewers had a very average offense. The only major category they cracked the top 4 in was homeruns. The batting average and on base percentage were really pretty poor, and their slightly above average slugging didn't seem to be enough to overcome that and make them a good offense.

Now, there seem to be two schools of thought.

1. The offense performed below expectations. Nearly every player finished below their PECOTA projections. A few minor tweaks should be made (most importantly 3B), but if most of the guys stay in tact, the offense should improve on its own. Guys should bounce back to their expected production levels, and some (like Braun) will improve even more as they have gained more experience.

2. This offense needs a big-time overhaul. An average offense is not good enough, and hoping that players progress back to the mean is simply not enough (and remember, the projections figure to be lower with all of the sub-par batting this season). The construction of the offense is geared too much toward the homerun ball, and will prevent the team from becoming a good or great offense, and they will be too inconsistent. Changes (perhaps dramatic) need to be made in order to get the 2009 offense to be where we need it.

Where do you stand? Who stays and who goes? What types of players (specific examples encouraged) would you like to replace them with? Would you be willing to do something dramatic like trade Fielder? Would you pick up Cameron's option? Do you want Weeks somewhere in the lineup again? Would you stay with Corey Hart as a starter again for another year?

[dadofandrew]

Personally, I'd say 7th is pretty good considering the youth. Add in a league average 3B, you're probably 4th or 5th. I'd add some OBP somehow and hope the young guys improve.

[logan82]

The only position that seems to need a dramatic upgrade is 3B. That could be solved with a straight Branyan/Hall platoon. We have a good young player at almost every other position. I think the fact that almost everybody underperformed their projections says that there is alot of room for improvement within the players we now have. We only have 2 players in their "declining" years. Playing the backup catcher more than once every other month might help also.

[BREWCREW5]

This offense is brutal when Weeks, Hall and Cameron are all in the same lineup. Cameron I can deal with. Hall and Weeks are brutal. We need full time upgrades at 3rd and 2nd. Get it done.

[JoeHova]

The problem with Weeks and Hall is that they aren't good enough defensively to be worth playing if they aren't hitting above average for their position.

 

Hall's total collapse is inexplicable (or were 2005 & 2006 flukes? I don't think they were, he got 1150 PAs over those years and had an OPS+ that would play at any position, even 1st base), but I think it's time to move on from him. Branyan I would keep (assuming they don't bring in a building block 3rd baseman) but I would get him a platoon partner who is a defensive specialist (Pedro Feliz-type). Then I would use Bill in the Counsell role if they can't unload him. His salary is high for that role and his defense has tanked along with his offense, but at least they'd get something for the money then.

 

As for Weeks, I'd see if some team was interested in trading a nice arm or two for him and then try to sign Orlando Hudson or Mark Ellis. 2nd basemen don't tend to age well, but both of those guys would be 20+ run improvements on Weeks with the glove and both also have better career hitting numbers (obviously they have the advantage of being in their primes, so the career number comparison isn't totally fair to Weeks). The problem would be if nobody wants Rickie. He's too good to DFA, but not good enough to really help a team at this point, imo. He'd be a better risk for a team that isn't hoping to contend in 2009 than he is for the Brewers. Some people may still hope he can recover his form from his time in AAA 4 years ago or his last month of 2007. He could still pull a Jason Varitek and be a late blooming 1st rounder who becomes a big star but I think a team has to stop holding their roster hostage at some point.

[Nottso]

Let Cameron go and start Kapler every day in the outfield. If this guy hasn't earned a starting spot, who has?

 

Find a legitimate 3b and return Hall to "Super Sub." The Koskie injury has had one of the worst total outcomes in Brewers history.

 

Weeks... I dunno. I'm one of the guys that still really, really wants him to realize his potential. I guess I'd keep him another year, but the leash would be short, and he'd be well aware of said short leash.

[Invader3K]

The only position that seems to need a dramatic upgrade is 3B. That could be solved with a straight Branyan/Hall platoon.

I really hope they don't go that route. Hall screams "I need a change of scene", and Branyan shouldn't be more than a bench player/fill in guy at this point.

[brewcrewkid14]

They are headed for an overhaul, although it may not be dramatic.

 

I still think that even though they are likely losing Sheets/Sabathia, this team still is not that far off from a championship. I think you may see one of the big boppers (preferably Prince, as good as he's been lately) traded away this off-season for a stud young pitcher, and I also think we could see some more Fontenot type players coming in as well to play second and third. For all we know that type of hitter may be beginning to surface (i.e. Escobar).

 

All in all, to answer your question, yes I think we will see some shift in the offensive philosophy. I also think we'll see guys like Mitch Stetter, Carlos Villanueva, and Seth McClung sticking around to be built around in the bullpen.

[Patrick425]

I'm a little older than the average poster on this board and I have been finding myself comparing this team to the 82 Brewers. I realize that younger Brewer fans want just forget 82 and move on. However, one of the things I remember about that team and I'm sure you could say this about most successful teams is that each person in the lineup had a role. Molitor and Yount understood their role and performed it well. They started things off. They got on base. Cooper, Thomas, and Oglivie understood their roles and also performed them well.

 

Everyone keeps talking about positions, in particular 3rd base. What's the solution? Go out and get another power hitting 3rd baseman? That's not what's needed here. I prefer to think about everyone's role in the lineup and understanding that role. It's clear to me that no one that the Brewer's have tried in the #1 position (or number 2 for that matter) has truly grasped an understanding of that position in the lineup and what their job is at that spot. This leaves guys like Fielder and Braun feeling like they each have to hit 5 HRs every game in order for the Brewer's to compete. The offensive vacancy is not a field position, it's a lineup position.

 

There is also some sort of coaching issue going on imho as well. It's clear that the Brewer players are not being coached very well when it comes to situational hitting. Things like staying back and looking for that outside pitch to drive the other way with guys in scoring position is a skill and thought process that seems to allude most of the Brewer's hitters.

[craigharmann]

There is also some sort of coaching issue going on imho as well. It's clear that the Brewer players are not being coached very well when it comes to situational hitting. Things like staying back and looking for that outside pitch to drive the other way with guys in scoring position is a skill and thought process that seems to allude most of the Brewer's hitters.

Agreed wholeheartedly. Case in point yesterday in the 1st inning. Bases loaded, one out. You've already scored 1 run, and on the verge of getting more. Corey Hart is up. Wouldn't it be the best, to look to hit it out to the outfield, if nothing else, to drive in one more run on a sac fly? Best case, you hit it out, and it's a completely different game. Corey swings at the first pitch (after Myers has given up 3 walks in the inning), and grounds into the inning-ending double play. Disappointing to say the least, but that not only comes down to execution, but coaching. A lot of what I see with the team is a lot of flailing, taking gigantic hacks, trying to hit the 800 foot, 7 run homers. Makes no sense to me.

[pretendastronaut]

I'm with Patrick, I think they need a coaching overhaul. Yes there are pieces that could use some replacement/resolution, but I don't consider that an overhaul. The overhaul needs to be in coaching. The entire month of September, and so far these two playoff games, have shown that either a) the players are not that well prepared for the pitcher they are going to face (which, with all of the tracking the Brewers' staff does, I don't think is even possible) or b) they're not listening to the message.

 

Are they not telling Corey to maybe go and take a pitch or two after there have been several walks in an inning, instead of hacking poorly at the first pitch and tapping into a ton of double plays this year, or is he not listening? Are they not telling the whole team that the entire league knows they'll chase a low and away pitch for strike 3 and to expect it instead of continually swinging at it, or are they not listening? Are they not telling Hall the reason he's out of the lineup is that he tries to pull everything over the left field wall, or is he not listening? Perhaps the guys are just that stubborn, but a change with the coaching staff probably still helps get those types of messages through regardless.

 

I do think the offense has been embarrassingly bad at times this year, and this time for a very extended streak to finish out the season. There is a lot of talent there, but some of them are underperforming greatly this year. I think there's a lot of mental wear on the team this year. They have more than enough power hitters, they need to get some guys who can get on base consistently now to pair with those power guys.

[Tbadder]

Of course it needs an overhaul. SLG % without OBP is pretty useless, and prone to crests and troughs too often. They gotta get OBP guys, period. Now, do any of the current guys have a chance to turn into high OBP guys--I'd think so. Braun, Weeks have good ceilings here. Fielder already is a pretty goo OBP guy. Not sure about anyone else.

[jjfanec]

There are positions that need work for sure. I actually really like Durham as the 2B. I think he fits this team really well. 1B, SS, LF are all set. I would not move Hardy unless we have to because right now he is our 3rd best hitter by a pretty good margin. Kendall is serviceable at catcher. That would leave 3B, CF, and RF. I am just not sold on Cameron. I would like a guy who doesn't strikeout so much at a couple positions, but I know there are not a ton of options at CF. I dont want Hall anywhere near the starting lineup anymore. Hart has a chance to be good he just needs to learn to take some pitches. Maybe we need to hurt his ribs because that seemed to help Braun become more selective toward the end of the season.

[FVBrewerFan]

Everyone keeps talking about positions, in particular 3rd base. What's the solution? Go out and get another power hitting 3rd baseman? That's not what's needed here. I prefer to think about everyone's role in the lineup and understanding that role. It's clear to me that no one that the Brewer's have tried in the #1 position (or number 2 for that matter) has truly grasped an understanding of that position in the lineup and what their job is at that spot. This leaves guys like Fielder and Braun feeling like they each have to hit 5 HRs every game in order for the Brewer's to compete. The offensive vacancy is not a field position, it's a lineup position.

This is exactly how I look at it. It's not a matter of looking at 3B or 2B, etc. You need to look at this line-up and realize there is no #1 or #2 hitter!!!! Actually, it looked like Hart would be a solution at #2. Speed, power, can lay down a bunt... The problem is even when he was hitting well his OBP wasn't that high.

 

When you look at it that way, the only logical place you can find a lead-off hitter is 2B or CF. Hart's trade value jsut took a nose dive, so this off-season probably isn't the ideal time to trade him. Same thing with Weeks. They're probably better off hoping for an upside, rather than trading them and not getting much in return. That leaves Cameron. I think the best option is not to sign him, and use that money to sign (or trade for) a lead-off hitting CF with a higher than average OBP.

 

Gamel may be the answer at 3B at some point next year, unless his defense is still not MLB ready. Hall, even in a platoon, is not the answer.

[Ennder]

Branyan is not the answer at 3B. Statistically speaking he would be great out there but he has never been able to stay healthy with regular playtime. Blalock and Blake look like the only real 3B free agent options and Blalock might still be a Ranger for 1 more year.

 

Durham for another year at 2B platooned with Weeks is probably the smartest option at 2B unless we can trade Weeks for something and sign Hudson or maybe Ellis.

 

For the OF a full season of Kapler would likely be a disaster but he does ok in a bench role. I'd like to go after a LH option who can spot start for Cameron and platoon some for Hart. Someone like an Edmonds would be a perfect fit or we could even go after Edmonds and not pick up Camerons option. That way we have a LH CF with Kapler playing CF against lefties. That might work.

 

I don't think we need an overhaul but we need to get rid of the dead weight which is mostly Hall. We definitely need to raise the team OBP so whatever players we target probably need to be strong in that area.

[patrickgpe]

depends on what you think is dramatic. The team will have to add atleast a starter and a setup man. The team needs a leadoff man. Whether that means you get a CF and don't pick up Cameron's option or you trade Weeks for someone like Roberts, so be it. I'm concerned about Hart's recent slide but no enough to say he needs to be replaced. Trading Hardy and replacing him with Escobar makes sense finacially but I don't see it as an essential move. If someone wants to take on weeks or hall, i'd be fine with that.

[JohnBriggs12]

You guys who think "fix 3b and you've fixed the problem" haven't been watching games.

 

I pointed out last winter after the Cameron signing, that the team was far too A. Righthanded and B. Strikeout prone. I said that this would cause Fielder's numbers to go down significantly (they have), and make it easier for opposing pitchers to get in a groove facing similar hitters throughout the lineup.

 

People pointed out to me well, "Jenkins didn't do anything anyway, so how is not having him going to affect anything?" And of course people couldn't get Estrada out of town fast enough, but as bad as he was in 2007 and he was bad, he was a more productive hitter than Jason Kendall was this year.

 

You cannot build an effective lineup with essentially 6 righthander hitters who strike out between 98 and 142 times and a catcher who plays every day that can't hit .250 and slug over .325.

 

Counsell was right when he said "If I have to play a lot, it's bad news". Counsell is not an adequate platoon player anywhere at this stage of his career. At best, he's a nice 25th man on your roster.

 

It's also bad news when you start the same catcher 150 times and he's over the hill (as a hitter) like Jason Kendall. That Rivera didn't get more opportunities after producing in the few he got is a mystery.

 

Fixing Corey Hart and Hall is still possible but you need to have them surrounded with a couple high average, good contact, lefthanded hitters so opposing pitchers won't be able to hone on in with their sliders. Cameron is another guy who's much more effective in a lineup that is balanced. Having Cameron, Hall, and Hart all in there is asking for trouble.

 

It's no coincidence that the offense from top to bottom was at its best when Branyan was hot. Unfortunately Branyan has never sustained it over a season, so he's not the answer. But stick a guy like Aubrey Huff (just an example) in there and it would make everyone else better. They just have to find that guy. Maybe it's Gamel, who knows? Maybe they have to deal to get one, but something has to be done.

[Fear The Chorizo]

There needs to be some fresh blood in the lineup, and in the dugout, IMO.

 

They are young, but Brewer hitters simply don't make adjustments to how pitchers attack them until it's too late in games for it to matter. Part of that falls on the players, but part of that also has to fall on how the hitting coach and scouting staff prepare them. Now that the Brewers finally made the playoffs, they're realizing that there aren't going to be any more games where they can feast on marginal #5 starters and average pitching staffs on bad teams. Good pitching always trumps good hitting, and good pitching dominates average hitting with a poor approach.

 

All Brewer hitters may be below their PECOTA projection, but then again many of the offensive numbers are down across the board for everyone in baseball this season (not singling out the Brewers from the rest of baseball, but testing for steroids and greenies say hello). I think it's obvious that the aberration years for Bill Hall were 2006 and 2005, since his last two seasons are comparable to what he did earlier in his career (which is essentially nothing). I think it's obvious that Rickie Weeks may be nothing more than a .250ish hitter with poor plate coverage and stones for hands defensively. Corey Hart is either playing injured or being paid by opponents to kill Brewer rallies - he's been atrocious down the stretch, and I really wish there was at least a decent option on the bench to take his place even though I think he's still a good player. Mike Cameron is looking less than ideal to pay 10 million dollars to, since he's made two defensive misplays in 2 playoff games, appears to forget to take his bat to the plate with him 1/2 the time, and isn't getting any younger.

 

I know he'll probably balk at the suggestion, but I'd love to see Hardy moved to third and have Escobar take over short - find some sort of trades that get Weeks and Hall off the roster to bring in a solid 2B like a Brian Roberts. I still wouldn't mind seeing Hart moved into center to free up a corner OF spot for Gamel (if he can play there) or Nelson, which would make picking up Cameron's option even less of a concern. There's been alot of speculation to trade Fielder due to his agent, weight, and defensive issues, but I think it's imperative that they hold onto that impact LH bat in their lineup. There will be other ways to build a solid pitching staff for next season without trading Fielder when his trade value isn't through the roof.

[Ennder]

I just don't see Escobar being the answer. Yeah he would help the defense but he'd be lucky to put up Counsel's numbers offensively. Kendall, Escobar, Pitcher would be just ugly at the bottom of the order. Escobar isn't major league ready and a year of inflated BABIP in AA doesn't really change that.

 

Hart is a below average RF, I think he would be a pretty significant problem in CF.

[Patrick425]

I really do not understand all the disdain for Kendall. He's a number 8 hitter. Did people really expect him to hit 10+ HR's? At least he seems to know how to work a count and make a pitcher throw some pitches.

 

To me the catcher's position is all about defense. Any offense that a catcher can add to the line up is frosting on the cake. I have no problem with Kendall's work behind the plate and how he has handled the pitching staff. I think people are really forgetting how other teams use to abuse prior Brewer catchers on the base paths and how frustrating that was. Take a look around at all the MLB catchers. There are not a ton of really good offensive catcher's out there.

[fondybrewfan]

I think the offense and coaching staff will see a major overhaul. I would be willing to bet that at least 2 of Weeks, Hall, Hart, Cameron, and Fielder will be playing somewhere else next year. Corey as very good earlier this year but his outright refusal to take a few pitches is infuriating. I don't know if the coaching staff isn't doing their job or if our young guys really are that stubborn. I am hoping a fresh coaching face will get these guys to change their approach. I think we need a non-players manager next year. Someone who isn't going to protect his players constantly and perhaps instill some accountability. Braun and Hardy are the only 2 guys I want back for sure next year and Fielder is probably in that category as well. I won't be heart broken if we trade any of our other position players. We need some darn OBP.

[Ennder]

Offensively Kendall was well below average at C this year. His EQA was .234 which is horrible. Guys like Ruiz, Bako, Mathis, Johjima were worse this year but that is about it for starting C.

 

Defensively he was very good though so overall I was ok with Kendall this year. He just better repeat that defense next year or he could be a serious black hole on the team. He needs to sit out more though. Why put that much strain on a C of that age when you have a reasonable backup, it makes no sense.

[nate82]

If you want to fix the problems there are a couple of easy fixes to do. Trading Hart for DeJesus would be a move in the right direction then moving Hardy to 3B and putting Escobar at SS. Sign a free agent like a Bobby Abreu or even a Adam Dunn depends how much these acquisitions would cost to fill out the OF. Two acquisitions and you fill all the areas of need for the offense. Abreu and DeJesus give you the OBP that the Brewers need.

 

Or you put Gamel in RF and just have DeJesus adding more OBP. Either way there is going to be change this offseason. I wouldn't be suprised if Hart, Weeks, Hardy, or Fielder are traded this offseason for pitching or other needs for the team. I only see Braun, Gallardo, Parra, and Kendall as players being back next year with the Brewers. Those players are a guarantee to be back next year the others it is up in the air.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'm just grasping at straws at this point, Ennder - I agree that Escobar has to show he can continue improving at the plate, and hopefully he gets another full season of development in the minors before getting called up. But, I think baseball is evolving back to stressing defense, pitching, and baserunning over softball-style offense again. Escobar would be able to help the team in that regard, as long as his bat continues to progress. the thought of kendall, escobar, pitcher is a little more palatable if the first 6 in the lineup include Roberts, Braun, Fielder, Gamel, Hardy, and Hart/Cameron (not necessarily in that order).

 

The other possibility for 3rd would be to bite the defensive bullet at some point next season and call Gamel up if he's crushing AAA pitching. I get nervous at the thought of our corner IF being Fielder and Gamel, though.

 

I'm on the fence regarding how expendable Weeks is - I think he was rushed through the minor leagues too quickly because of a dearth of talent in front of him, and he was never able to develop into a good baseball player...the tools are all there, but the ability to use them best on a diamond isn't. I still wonder whether the Brewers should have pulled a BJ Upton with him and moved him to centerfield.

 

One thing's for sure, it's going to be a very eventful offseason for the Brewers - decisions made with the roster will have alot to do with whether we will be waiting 26 years for another playoff berth or not.

[Ennder]

Here is a breakdown of the team's hitting by EQA. EQA takes into account things like SH, SF, SB etc but it is a rate stat so doesn't qualify for play time. It also doesn't rate clutch hitting which I don't think really has any meaning over a single season when trying to judge how good a player will be the next year. EQA is set up on a scale that matches AVG to make it easy to view. Someone with a .300 is a really good hitter, someone with a .230 is a poor one.

 

Branyan - .303

Fielder - .299

Braun - .294

Rivera - .288

Durham - .286

Kapler - .283

Hardy - .279

Cameron - .277

Weeks - .264

Hart - .260

Counsell - .245

Hall - .235

Kendall - 234

 

Next I'll look at RAP. This compares offensive runs created by a player to the average runs created for their position for the same playtime. So Hardy as a 16.9 means he produced 16.9 runs more than an average SS would have in the same number of PA. Any player who is negative actively hurt the team offensively this year.

 

Hardy 16.9

Braun 15.5

Fielder 13.4

Branyan 5.5

Cameron 5.2

Kapler 2.3

Durham 2.0

Weeks -0.8

Counsell -7.9

Kendall -10.6

Hart -12.7

Hall -18.4

 

Pretty much what I expected. Hall and Hart just killed the team this year, especially Hall who cost us 18.4 runs in only half a season. Kendall and Counsell hurt pretty badly but most likely offset a big chunk of their negatives with their defense. Weeks was about average but his defense makes him a below average player. Hardy, Braun, Fielder carried the team.