PECOTA vs Brewer hitters

[kramnoj]

What about Kotchman's crummy production being of equal weight to Lee's?

 

That production of Kotchman is for his Atlanta time only. If you want to see AL teams, you can look here: http://spreadsheets.googl...y=p9BODtOllD4twT9howzgTVg

 

Just because it's available doesn't mean it should be trusted.

 

It's a measurement. All measurements should be looked at in context. Milton Bradley isn't a .321 hitter, but he was in the chances he had this year. ZR isn't meant to measure true defensive talent. It measures plays made compared to opportunities, compared to positional average. Bad defensive players can have good defensive years, and vice versa.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's a measurement. All measurements should be looked at in context. Milton Bradley isn't a .321 hitter, but he was in the chances he had this year.

 

That's a good point & example.

 

 

Bad defensive players can have good defensive years, and vice versa.

 

The problem I feel is not a bad defensive player having a good or average year, but that metrics will not accurately reflect what was a good or bad year.

 

 

And I still have no clue how Kotchman's poor offense in Atlanta is of equal value to Lee's solid year in Chicago. I've followed the links in the Stats forum, and researched XRAA a bit.

[Ennder]

Lee had an .823 OPS on the year, grounded into 27 double plays and had a .784 OPS in high leverage situations. I can see some areas that would make Fielder better than Lee. The 27 GIDP is pretty darn huge if that particular metric counts those.

[Ennder]

Could you find some (doesn't even have to be Brewers) that are way off, though? I guess off the top of my head I could think of Milton Bradley.

Ryan Ludwick

 

stats - 538 AB, 104 R, 161 H, 40 2B, 3 3B, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 146 K, 62 BB, .4 SB, 4 CS, .299/.375/.591/.966

proj - 332 AB, 47 R, 85 H, 19 2B, 1 3B, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 34 BB, 86 K, 3 SB, 2 CS, .256/.331/.475/.806

 

It did list him as 43% chance to significantly improve and 17% to break out with a 25.6 upside which is similar to say Matt LaPorta, Brad Hawpe, Corey Hart

 

 

(edit: long quote --1992)