PECOTA vs Brewer hitters

[Ennder]

Thought a look at how PECOTA did at projecting the Brewers would be interesting so here goes.

 

Weeks

 

proj - 425 AB, 79 R, 113 H, 24 2B, 4 3B, 16 HR, 54 RBI, 59 BB, 105 K, 18 SB, 5 CS, .265/.368/.454/.822

stats - 475 AB, 89 R, 111 H, 22 2B, 7 3B, 14 HR, 46 RBI, 66 BB, 115 K, 19 SB, 5 CS, .234/.342/.398/.740

 

Pretty good job overall I'd say. His hits were lower than expected but some of that can be attributed to his .277 BABIP compared to a career .299.

 

Hardy

 

proj - 476 AB, 62 R, 130 H, 27 2B, 1 3B, 17 HR, 66 RBI, 39 BB, 63 K, 3 SB, 2 CS, .273/.329/.441/.770

stats -569 AB, 78 R, 161 H, 31 2B, 4 3B, 24 HR, 74 RBI, 52 BB, 98 K, 2 SB, 1 CS, .283/.343/.478/.821

 

Again not too terrible. BABIP again is a big part of the difference as he posted a .305 vs a career .282. I think the biggest flaw with this projection was caused by Hardy's first half of his rookie year making him look worse than he really was. Obviously it assumed his health would be an issue still given the start of his career.

 

Braun

 

proj - 603 AB, 112 R, 181 H, 40 2B, 4 3B, 39 HR, 116 RBI, 60 BB, 137 K, 16 SB, 6 CS, .300/.367/.575/.942

stats- 611 AB, 92 R, 174 H, 39 2B, 7 3B, 37 HR, 106 RBI, 42 BB, 129 K, 14 SB, 4 CS, .285/.335/.553/.888

 

Very solid projection overall with the biggest difference probably being Brauns injury which tanked his stats a little in the last month.

 

Fielder

 

proj - 558 AB, 106 R, 160 H, 34 2B, 1 3B, 38 HR, 110 RBI, 82 BB, 121 K, 7 SB, 2 CS, .288/.384/.560/.944

stats - 588 AB, 86 R, 162 H, 30 2B, 2 3B, 34 HR, 102 RBI, 84 BB, 134 K, 3 SB, 2 CS, .276/.372/.507/.879

 

Not too bad here though not sure why PECOTA gave most 1B too many SB (not just fielder has that big jump). Fielder obviously slumped more on the year than most expected so I'm not surprised it expected more power than he had.

 

Hart

 

proj - 505 AB, 92 R, 145 H, 33 2B, 5 3B, 26 HR, 82 RBI, 51 BB, 103 K, .288/.358/.527/.885

stats - 612 AB, 76 R, 164 H, 45 2B, 6 3B, 20 HR, 91 RBI, 27 BB, 109 K, .268/.300/.458/.759

 

The first really bad projection. Even looking at Hart's line before the big slump he was not coming close to walking as much as PECOTA expected. Hart majorly regressed this year.

 

Hall

 

proj - 405 AB, 61 R, 108 H, 27 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 65 RBI, 40 BB, 106 K, 8 SB, 3 CS, .265/.335/.481/.816

stats - 404 AB, 50 R, 91 H, 22 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 37 BB, 124 K, 5 SB, 6 CS, .225/.293/.396/.689

 

Another partially BABIP related failure as his career rate is .315 and this year it was .284. However Hall K'd even more than expected and fell pretty far short on the power expectations as well.

 

Kendall

proj - 261 AB, 30 R, 67 H, 12 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 22 BB, 25 K, 4 SB, 1 CS, .255/.324/.321/.645

stats - 516 AB, 46 R, 127 H, 30 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 49 RBI, 50 BB, 45 K, 8 SB, 3 CS, .246/.327/.324/.651

 

A shockingly accurate projection other than the fact it assumed an aging C who can't hit wouldn't play full time. Guess it couldn't predict how much his defense improved.

 

Cameron

proj - 436 AB, 77 R, 118 H, 28 2B, 4 3B, 21 HR, 67 RBI, 55 BB, 114 K, 14 SB, 4 CS, .269/.355/.493/.848

stats - 444 AB, 69 R, 108 H, 25 2B, 2 3B, 25 HR, 70 RBI, 54 BB, 142 K, 17 SB, 5 CS, .249/.331/.477/.809

 

Another very good projection it just didn't count on how bad Cameron would be in September. As late as Sept 14th Cameron had a .248/.337/.509/.846 line. His K's spiked more than expected which suppressed his AVG which is the biggest difference in the projection.

 

 

Overall I'd say PECOTA did a pretty good job projecting the Brewer's offense. The team as a whole seems to have underproduced offensively and that is something I agree with from a qualitative standpoint as well. I expect if we just stay put next year that the offense will be better just by players doing more what was expected out of them but I would hope at the very least we replace Hall out there as he was a black hole each of the last 2 seasons.

 

I'm not sure what to do with Hart but he needs to go back to taking BB at a 50+ a year pace to be a useful player if he is going to play full time

[DHonks]

Thanks Ender....most are very close except Weeks, Hart, and Hall.

 

I've recently thought that perhaps we should continue with Weeks but move him to CF. I believe it was in an XM interview last week, they said that the Brewers were the only team convinced Rickie can be a decent 2b. Weeks compares favorably with Cameron offensively, only at a fraction of the cost (and with tremendous upside). It would allow the signing of a Durham-type for second, with Hardy at SS, Lamb at 3b, and Hall as utility. Keeping the team fairly intact should allow for a decent bump in performance next year

[valpocrewsader]

It's kind of funny that when White Sox fans were arguing that their entire offense slumped for all of 2007, it was dismissed as a bad excuse for an aging club, but one year later, the entire Brewers offense slumps (mainly with young guys).

[PKBadger]

The thing I find most disturbing when reading Ennder's post is that only 1 player exceeded expectations (Hardy), and most fell considerably short of them.

 

Ah well...only a couple years til Lawrie gets here... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[endaround]

It's kind of funny that when White Sox fans were arguing that their entire offense slumped for all of 2007, it was dismissed as a bad excuse for an aging club, but one year later, the entire Brewers offense slumps (mainly with young guys).

 

The difference is is that the Brewers fell short of projections, the White Sox matched them.

[logan82]

I know we can't ignore Weeks first half, but considering where he was at the half I think it is amazing he came close to his projection.

[nate82]

I've recently thought that perhaps we should continue with Weeks but move him to CF. I believe it was in an XM interview last week, they said that the Brewers were the only team convinced Rickie can be a decent 2b. Weeks compares favorably with Cameron offensively, only at a fraction of the cost (and with tremendous upside). It would allow the signing of a Durham-type for second, with Hardy at SS, Lamb at 3b, and Hall as utility. Keeping the team fairly intact should allow for a decent bump in performance next year

CF is the only place he could play in the OF. Weeks arm is comparable to Pierre's arm. Which if you have ever seen Pierre throwing a ball you know that it is like a high school girl softball player. Teams know they can run on Pierre when he is in the OF because he doesn't have an arm worthy of playing the OF. Weeks will be the same and the growing pains that we will have to go throw with Weeks in CF. If you thought Hall was bad last year in CF and cost the Brewers some games with his defense there. You are not going to like what Weeks will do in CF.

[benji]

Thanks for the info. Is there a metric that compares defense plays made or outs to the average player at that position? I might not want to see it but it would be interesting.

[TooLiveBrew]

I know we can't ignore Weeks first half, but considering where he was at the half I think it is amazing he came close to his projection.

 

I agree logan... pretty good second half at the plate.

 

 

CF is the only place he could play in the OF. Weeks arm is comparable to Pierre's arm.

 

This is just untrue. The positive aspect of Rickie's throwing arm is its strength -- the accuracy is where the problems arise. I'm confident he could very capably man LF, but then he'd really have to be hitting to justify staying on the field. CF makes the most sense offensively for Rickie (operating under the assumption that he *is* moved from 2B), but defensively I think he'd be at least as rough as Hall was. I like the idea (operating under the assumption that Rickie can carry a BA/OBP split around .260/.375) of Braun to CF

 

 

Thanks for doing that work & sharing the results, Ennder. I agree that on balance, PECOTA once again did a solid job. Imo the projection on Fielder was very good... and seeing the 'expected' lines for Hall & Hart make me want to bang my head against a wall.

[colbyjack]

Thanks for providing that Ennder, that's very interesting and helpful. I know a similar discussion is being tossed around in the thread about whether or not the offense needs an overhaul this upcoming offseason, but those numbers do offer some optismism since for the most part the entire lineup outside of Hardy has underachieved (which I think we knew even without the numbers). If the Brewers hit more like they're capable of, or even how they should hit, the offense could be significantly better in 2009 even if no signficant personnel changes are made.

 

However, it is difficult to count on that, although given the relative youth of the lineup I am more optimistic of them being able to turn things around. No, being an average offense isn't necessarily a bad thing, but playoff teams usually aren't average on either side of the ball.

[dadofandrew]

Weeks has one of the best 2B arms in the game. That is just as untrue a statement as I can recall seeing.

[TooLiveBrew]

However, it is difficult to count on that, although given the relative youth of the lineup I am more optimistic of them being able to turn things around. No, being an average offense isn't necessarily a bad thing, but playoff teams usually aren't average on either side of the ball.

 

Historically, being well above-avg. in either pitching or hitting, while being roughly average in the other category (in terms of OPS+), is 'good enough' to get a team into the postseason. There have been quite a few playoff teams that featured an OPS+ split somewhere in the neighborhood of 110-115/100-105.

 

The fact that the Brewers are largely comprised of players entering their prime-aged seasons is reason enough for me to feel like the majority of the offense should be left as is. To expect guys like Weeks & Hart to get worse instead of better imho is playing the wrong side of that bet. I think it's a good bet that Fielder/Braun/Hardy will have good seasons again in '09, and if Weeks & Hart can't improve upon their 2008 overall numbers, then imo our problems are bigger than just finding a different bat or two.

[kramnoj]

Thanks for the info. Is there a metric that compares defense plays made or outs to the average player at that position? I might not want to see it but it would be interesting.

 

http://spreadsheets.googl...y=p9BODtOllD4sXsmwK_rgHQA is a metric called Offense plus Defense. It uses Zone Rating as the metric and converts the chances into runs (positive or negative). The DRS is the defensive metric (I believe Defensive Runs Saved). One thing to keep in mind is that people who study defense says that you need two full years of defensive stats to equal one year of offensive stats. That chart is for this year through Sep 2nd.

[benji]

thanks for that. It is very interesting. If I am reading it right it looks like Prince has a better metric than D. Lee. I am very surprised by that.

[homer]

So if Hart had come relatively close to matching his projections, what would that have done for runs created? Seems like a huge difference to me.

[TooLiveBrew]

If I am reading it right it looks like Prince has a better metric than D. Lee. I am very surprised by that.

 

This is a great example of why I don't pay much attention to defensive metrics. If you watch these dudes play 1B, it's very readily apparent that Lee is at or near the top of the spectrum, where Fielder is at or near the bottom.

 

 

So if Hart had come relatively close to matching his projections, what would that have done for runs created? Seems like a huge difference to me.

 

Yeah, I agree homer. It's such a shame that Corey was a bust this second half. Even just having him around last year's season production would have made a huge difference.

[brewjihad]

I'm reading a -9.30 DRS for Fielder and 2.30 for Lee, and -1.00 for Fielder overall and -5.80 for Lee. I'm not familiar with this offense plus defense stat, but I think the -9.3 is worse than the 2.3 in defense. Traditional good defensive 1B like Texiera and Pujols are about 11 DRS, and I know Mike Jacobs gets a rap as a bad defender and he's -10.3 DRS. So I think the stat confirms that Fielder is one of the worst first basemen in the NL.

[kramnoj]

This is a great example of why I don't pay much attention to defensive metrics. If you watch these dudes play 1B, it's very readily apparent that Lee is at or near the top of the spectrum, where Fielder is at or near the bottom.

 

This isn't an example of this at all. It is a total production metric, and through Sep 2nd, Fielder provide more total production than Lee. That is probably true through the end of the year as well, but the metric hasn't been updated.

[pitchleague]

preseason statistical predictions, such as PECOTA, are something that I never ever really paid much attention to, until this year. As you pointed out, a lot of the players stats are pretty darn close.

 

Could you find some (doesn't even have to be Brewers) that are way off, though? I guess off the top of my head I could think of Milton Bradley.

[benji]

I'm sorry. I meant overall when I mentioned Fielder and Lee. I wonder where Hardy would be at third or second base.

[DHonks]

CF is the only place he could play in the OF. Weeks arm is comparable to Pierre's arm.

Nate,

first off, Weeks has a VERY strong arm. What kills him on the IF is footwork. Often some of his best throws include crow-hops as they usually are on cut-offs and relays.

Secondly, Weeks was a CF in college, so it's not like Hall learning a completely new position.

 

 

(edit: long quote --1992)

[kramnoj]

Could you find some (doesn't even have to be Brewers) that are way off, though? I guess off the top of my head I could think of Milton Bradley.

 

You can go through ZiPS, which are close to PECOTA in forecasting accuracy. For example, here is a link to the projections of Padres players before 2008 (Bradley last played in San Diego, that's why he's projected there): http://www.baseballthinkf...ections_san_diego_padres/ ZiPS projected him to be a little above average for a RF. You'll have to adjust the rate stats, because projecting to play in San Diego is obviously different from hitting in Texas. Even so, projection systems are going to be wrong 30% of the time, and sometimes they are going to be very wrong.

[TooLiveBrew]

It is a total production metric, and through Sep 2nd, Fielder provide more total production than Lee.

 

It's very hard for me to believe or trust that Lee is that far behind Fielder. Prince's defense is ridiculously bad, while Lee is much closer to 'ridiculously good'. Offensively I just don't see how Lee trails Fielder enough that he'd finish so far behind overall. The OPD ranking you've provided states that Lee is in the lower half of 1B in the majors. That's just hard to believe imo. I think part of my problem is that I think the defensive metrics right now are very misleading in general.

 

The Extrapolated Runs Above Average, which as I understand it is offensive value relative to position (that is the Xra+AA category, right?), has Lee's line of .291/.361/.462 as equal (negative) value to either Casey Kotchman's overall .272/.328/.410 or his .237/.331/.316 with Atlanta -- I'm not sure if the chart is counting only NL stats.

 

Unless I'm misunderstand the Xra+AA column, the data seems off to me. The gap between Fielder's & Lee's defense is so much larger than the gap between their offense, unless the offensive metric has Lee as bad as the Xra+AA does. Heck, Ryan Howard's .251/.339/.543 is rated out as a -7.2. The stat there is either very strange, or I'm missing something.

[kramnoj]

If you follow the links I provided in the Stats forum, you can see the methodology. I won't try to describe it in detail, but this stat measures production provided. If a player has limited playing time and plays well, they can really skew the stats. Look at 3B and Branyan for example. In his limited time, he was the 5th most productive 3B in the NL. I don't think it's a perfect stat, but it's one of the few easily available stats that measures play by play defense and converts the chances into a value of runs.

[TooLiveBrew]

If a player has limited playing time and plays well, they can really skew the stats.

 

What about Kotchman's crummy production being of equal weight to Lee's?

 

 

I don't think it's a perfect stat, but it's one of the few easily available stats that measures play by play defense and converts the chances into a value of runs.

 

Just because it's available doesn't mean it should be trusted. Like I said, I might be missing something, but if the offense of Derrek Lee & Ryan Howard are being ranked right there with Casey Kotchman, I think it's really flawed.