Jake Peavy

[sbrylski]

I pretty much agree with the article. Peavy is going to be overrated and some team is going to give up way too much for him.

 

Sorry if I missed it, but is the article adjusting how much Peavy is worth with expected changes in the overall market? If he isn't factoring in increases in the average contract value, then he's going to underestimate his NPV.

[brewerguy71]

I believe that he factored in an inflation rate, and also added a percentage for teams that would need him more than others.

 

I did not feel that the article stated he would be overvalued. It seemed pretty right on to me.

[Ennder]

I did not feel that the article stated he would be overvalued. It seemed pretty right on to me

 

I don't know how else to interpret the conclusion.

 

"Conclusion

 

Jake Peavy will be the hottest target in this offseason's trade market. However, while he does bring some good trade value, he will likely not be worth as much as a team would have to trade to get him"

 

or this comment...

 

"However, there is one important clarification we need to make, and that is the difference between Peavy's actual trade value and his perceived trade value. While I estimate Peavy's actual trade value at around $20 million, his perceived trade value is almost certainly higher."

 

Given his health history and how he has pitched outside of extreme pitcher parks in his career he just isn't someone I'm interested in at all. The price to get him will be greater than what he brings the team.

[bucksman4]

FoxSports.com is reporting that the Cubs may be overtaking the Braves as the most likely team that Peavy gets traded to.

 

Link: http://msn.foxsports.com/...vy,-still-eyeing-Dempster

 

A rotation of Peavy, Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, and Harden is just flat out scary.

[Ennder]

Harden will get hurt, Dempster will revert to his 4 ERA ways, Zambrano will be lucky to be much under a 4 ERA again in his career. Lilly is a 4 ERA guy and Peavy will be over a 3.50 ERA in Wrigley.

 

It is a very solid top to bottom rotation but it isn't nearly as scary as the names make it sound.

[bucksman4]

I think you're in denial, man. Good pitchers make other good pitchers even better by pushing them to perform to a higher level. This is freaky scary in my opinion. These guys are all capable of near 3.00 era's. To assume these guys will be 4 ERA guys is crazy when their past histories have proven otherwise. I hope to God this doesn't happen. We'll lose the division by 10 games.

[Crewin06]

I think you're in denial, man. Good pitchers make other good pitchers even better by pushing them to perform to a higher level. This is freaky scary in my opinion. These guys are all capable of near 3.00 era's. To assume these guys will be 4 ERA guys is crazy when their past histories have proven otherwise. I hope to God this doesn't happen. We'll lose the division by 10 games.

And still make the Wild Card. I don't know if anyone's told you this but the division crown hasn't mattered in over 10 years.

[Ennder]

I think you're in denial, man. Good pitchers make other good pitchers even better by pushing them to perform to a higher level. This is freaky scary in my opinion. These guys are all capable of near 3.00 era's. To assume these guys will be 4 ERA guys is crazy when their past histories have proven otherwise. I hope to God this doesn't happen. We'll lose the division by 10 games.

Lilly has never came close to a 3.00 ERA. Zambrano hasn't been under a 3.80 in the past 2 years, is showing signs of the abuse he received at a young age.. Look up Peavy's road numbers and tell me he is a lock for under a 3.50 ERA in Wrigley. The names are scarier than the reality is most likely. The scariest pitcher by far in that list is Harden, if he stays healthy I'm more afraid of him than the rest of the rotation combined.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think the Cubs have enough chips to get Peavy. I'm sure Samardzija would be involved along with Pie and Hoffpauir but thats a bunch of unproven talent and they could get more than that elsewhere.

 

As for their rotation if they got him Peavy would replace Marquis, and anyway you look at it, that is an upgrade that would more than make up for some decline by Dempster and or Lilly.

[Oldcity]

Yeah, what the heck could the Cubs trade? Samardzija, Vitters maybe? I don't see how they could ever land Peavy??

[crewcrazy]

Latest from Ken Rosenthal has the Braves and Cubs battling it out for the leading offer: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8765068

 

According to the link, the Braves are likely offering Yunel Escobar, Jo-Jo Reyes/Charlie Morton, and a top prospect. The Cubs' offer still isn't public, but you have to figure that Josh Vitters has to be a part of it, and possibly pieces like Ronny Cedeno and Felix Pie. They don't really have the "young pitching" that the Padres seem to be looking for, though -- we don't really know if Samardzija could hack it as a starter or if he's just going to end up being a pretty good reliever. I suppose they could go the quantity over quality route, but the Braves have enough top prospects to match anything the Cubs throw out if they really want to.

 

If the Cubs do trade for Peavy and give Dempster an extension, the good news would be that Dempster would be guaranteed a Suppan-esque contract while he reverts back to form, and they wouldn't have the necessary cash to keep Kerry Wood and sign a lefty bat like Adam Dunn. With the impending sale of the team, they won't have the ability to splurge in free agency like they did a few years ago -- every move they make is going to have a corresponding move to balance salary.

[fondybrewfan]

I still don't know how the Cubs can win this thing. Pie isn't the prospect he used to be and Vitters is still in A ball and didn't exactly light the world on fire.

 

Peavy, Z, Harden, and Lilly sounds very good on paper but 3 of the 4 guys (excluding Lilly) have had some recent injury issues.

 

If the Cubs do pull this off they will have officially 0 legitimate prospects available for the rest of the winter or next eyar trading deadline.

 

I wish the Crew could get involved here but it sounds like it ain't happening. Towers seems to have backed himself into a corner here too basically saying that Peavy will get traded no matter what.

[MJLiverock]

I think I will scream if the Cubs can pull of trading a pile of basically garbage for Peavy. Cedeno and Pie are just over hyped guys who aren't really great prospects. I would hope if these rumors are true Doug Melvin could look around the Brewer system and package one of the decent catching prospects and a bunch of spare part "prospects" and come up with a similar or better offer. How many times can the Cubs get away with trading piles of mediocre minor league players for quality major league guys?

[jjfanec]

If the Braves are really offering Escobar, JoJo Reyes/Morton and a top prospect I don't know what the Cubs have to match that. Escobar is better than any young guy the Cubs could offer. The top prospect would probably be in the Vitters category. Vitters who is just in A-ball could not be the center piece they would have to offer something else but I just don't know who they have. Pie, Cedeno, Theriot, Fontenot don't compare to Escobar in my mind.

If that is all they can get for Peavy they should just keep him until the trade deadline. What would the Brewers have to give up to match what the Braves and Cubs are reportedly offering? I know we may not be on his list right now but I think we could offer something better. Parra has put up much better numbers than either Reyes or Morton

[ILuvDaBush]

THe difference between the Braves/Cubs and the Brews is the willingness on the part of Peavy to waive his no-trade clause. We could offer all the prospects on the farm and still come up dry. Unfortunately, Peavy wants to have total control over his situation with his new team, and given his contract, you can't dissuade him. Would a CC-type extention satisfy him, probably, but then you're trading a farm and hand-cuuffing your team for years over the pitching equivalent of Dante Bischette or Vinny Castilla.

[JohnBriggs12]

If the Braves are really offering Escobar, JoJo Reyes/Morton and a top prospect I don't know what the Cubs have to match that. Escobar is better than any young guy the Cubs could offer. The top prospect would probably be in the Vitters category. Vitters who is just in A-ball could not be the center piece they would have to offer something else but I just don't know who they have. Pie, Cedeno, Theriot, Fontenot don't compare to Escobar in my mind.

If that is all they can get for Peavy they should just keep him until the trade deadline. What would the Brewers have to give up to match what the Braves and Cubs are reportedly offering? I know we may not be on his list right now but I think we could offer something better. Parra has put up much better numbers than either Reyes or Morton

The kicker is that Peavy doesn't want to go to the Braves if they have to give up Escobar to get him because he thinks it will weaken them too much to contend.

 

It appears Peavy is using his no trade clause to dictate the deal. Get this too. Padres might have to settle for Sean Marshall instead of Samardzjia, because Samardzjia himself has a no trade clause in that ridiculous contract the Cubs gave him to make sure he chose baseball.

 

The one potential positive from a Brewer perspective is that if Cubs get him, it will take them out of contention to get Roberts because they will have to use part of the Roberts package to get Peavy and their still trying to sign Dempster.

[paul253]

I dont understand why Peavy wouldnt want to come to Milwaukee. Yes, its Milwaukee, but its not like its Walla Walla Washington. From a purely baseball standpoint we play in a beautiful park, have great loyal fans, and have set the team up to be one ace away from competing for the next several years.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

If the Cubs get Peavy that would be robbery.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I will be extremely angry if the Padres trade Peavy to the cubs for the likes of Pie and Samardzija. If this trade happens and we lose CC and Sheets we may as well start a whole new rebuilding job because we will have no shot of beating out the cubs for the forseeable future.

[fondybrewfan]

I will be extremely angry if the Padres trade Peavy to the cubs for the likes of Pie and Samardzija. If this trade happens and we lose CC and Sheets we may as well start a whole new rebuilding job because we will have no shot of beating out the cubs for the forseeable future.

The beauty of the wild card. IF the Cubs were to trade for Peavy they better hope they remain injury free and crappy performance free in 2008 because they won't be able to trade for any meaningful player or call up any meaningful player. I can't imagine they are looking to add a ton of payroll while trying to sell the team. They are going to have to unload Marquis, and it is unlikely that they resign Dempster. While trading for Peavy will probably make them a better team how can they expect Peavy this year to be any better than Dempster was last year? I know the expectation is that Demp will drop off this year so that is probably a mute point.

[brewerguy71]

Dont forget Sean Marshall, he has value, is mlb ready and is cheap. If the Cubs were to offer up Pie, Marshall and Golden Boy, that wouldnt be too far off from what the Brewers gave the Indians for Sabathia. If the Cubs offered up a couple of mid range A guys as well with potential, its a pretty nice deal for the Padres. They get a great defender in CF, a potential ace starter, and a very reliable #4 type of starter and prospects for Peavy.

 

I wouldnt call that robbery at all.

[bucksman4]

fondybrewfan...that's absolutely the worst argument I have heard. "The beauty of the wild card??" Really? I think you've settled in the mindset of mediocrity if your goal year in and year out is to attain the wild card. It should be to win the division. Period. There are too many extraneous factors that could prevent one from gaining the wild card. An NL East that features the high spending Mets, overachieving Marlins, and consistently productive World Champion Phillies makes the Wild Card a very, very difficult challenge. To concede the division to the Cubs is a crucial mistake and I would not expect us to beat out those aforementioned teams for the WC without a formidable pitching rotation.

[jjfanec]

Dont forget Sean Marshall, he has value, is mlb ready and is cheap. If the Cubs were to offer up Pie, Marshall and Golden Boy, that wouldnt be too far off from what the Brewers gave the Indians for Sabathia. If the Cubs offered up a couple of mid range A guys as well with potential, its a pretty nice deal for the Padres. They get a great defender in CF, a potential ace starter, and a very reliable #4 type of starter and prospects for Peavy.

 

I wouldnt call that robbery at all.

Who is the potential ace starter? Samardzija did not really have stats in the minors to show he could be an ace. He has not really produced for a full season. His K/BB rate was only good for a 6 start stint in 07 and a six start stint in 08. He has only put up good K numbers one time. I just don't see how he projects as an ace. Marshall is alright and Pie has some potential but there is now this compares to Sabathia because CC was a 3 month rental. Peavey is signed long-term. LaPorta was a top 10 prospect and Samardzija never sniffed that high of a ranking except he had a nice end to this year as a reliever. Brantley and Bryson have good upside as well. Marshall could be a back end of the rotation guy but nothing more. When considering how long the Cubs would have Peavy this a much better deal and one I think we could match fairly easily.

[fondybrewfan]

fondybrewfan...that's absolutely the worst argument I have heard. "The beauty of the wild card??" Really? I think you've settled in the mindset of mediocrity if your goal year in and year out is to attain the wild card. It should be to win the division. Period. There are too many extraneous factors that could prevent one from gaining the wild card. An NL East that features the high spending Mets, overachieving Marlins, and consistently productive World Champion Phillies makes the Wild Card a very, very difficult challenge. To concede the division to the Cubs is a crucial mistake and I would not expect us to beat out those aforementioned teams for the WC without a formidable pitching rotation.

So let me get this straight. Just because the Cubs will have the far superior team in terms of talent the Brewers will rebuild? I was responding to the poster saying we might as well rebuild because we have no chance of beating the Cubs. The Wild Card allows us to make the playoffs despite being the inferior team in the division. How exactly is that a bad thing and how exactly is rebuilding going to solve anything? That was my argument. I wasn't implying that I will always accept the wild card instead of a division crown, but the option is there so that is why it doesn't make any sense to rebuild with as much talent as we have.

[endaround]

Yep the goal each year should be to build a team to win 90 games. That will more than likely get you into the playoffs. You can't worry too much about what other teams do, the goal is always going to be 90 wins. Sometimes that's the Division and sometimes thats the Wild Card, so what?