Jake Peavy

[logan82]

Brewers. Their fear would be that Peavy could turn into another Ben Sheets, suffering frequent injuries while earning $48 million from 2010 to '12. A Rickie Weeks-J.J. Hardy offer would snap the Padres to attention - look ma, a new middle infield! - but the Brewers are not going to part with their best young pitchers, righty Yovani Gallardo and lefty Manny Parra.

It almost looks like he is saying both Weeks and Hardy, but that would be ludicrous.

[PeaveyFury]

Sportswriters are idiots.

 

So are a surprising number of GM's.

[ILuvDaBush]

Who would interest the Padres more, a proven all-star shortstop about to hit arbitration, or one of the most exciting (shortstop) prospects in all of baseball, who will be cheap for at least three years and you control for at least six? I understand we match up well with the Pads, but I would think Alcides would be their target.

[paul253]

The more I think about it, the more i like the idea of getting Peavy. Think Hardy, Jeffress, Braddock, and Gillespie would be enough? If not Gillespie maybe Salome or Lucroy? Add that to signing Sheets to a 4 year, $60 million deal. Let Cameron walk and either sign someone cheaper like Edmonds and have him platoon with Kapler, or let Kapler platoon with Gwynn (I know not ideal but to get Sheets?) A rotation of Peavy, Gallardo, Sheets, Parra and probably Suppan, unless they can unload him (I'd pay 1/2 to 3/4 of his salary for someone to take him), in which case you have Bush. The bullpen of Torres, Stetter, Riske, Villanueva, McClung and maybe Dillard. Lineup including Fielder, Weeks, Escobar, Hall, Braun, Kapler/Gwynn/Edmonds, Hart, Kendall. Still have Lawrie, two of Lucroy/Salome/Gillespie, Cain, Gamel, Green, and Caleb Gindl for prospects, and still have few if any pitching prospects, though some good young ones in Lintz and Odorizzi. Plus you'll get 2 extra picks for Sabathia to help stock up. You'd have to spend another $10 million or so to finish up the bench and maybe add a solid bullpen arm, but i think its doable. So you add about $50 million with Sheets, Peavy, Edmonds, a bullpen arm, and two bench players, plus arby raises and subtract the $13 mil Sheets was making this year, $10 million from Gagne, $3 from Turnbow $3 from Counsell, $5 million that Cameron was making. So what, payroll goes up $14 million? Can we do it?

 

Peavy

Gallardo

Sheets

Parra

Bush

 

Suppan

McClung

Riske

Villanueva

Torress

Stetter

FA

 

Weeks

Esobar

Braun

Fielder

Hart

Edmonds

Hall

Kendall

 

Branyon

Gwynn

Kapler

FA

FA

 

Hopefully subtract Suppan and add someone else

[ninja33]

I totally agree with TheCrew07. The Brewers lack an adequate number of starters for 09. It makes no sense to trade Parra and Jeffress for Peavy. I don't think Jeffress will start a game for the Brewers next year but it could happen. The Brewers will have to add starters through free agency or trades. I would concentrate on trading Fielder for pitching not Hardy.

Yes, assuming the worst in free agency, the brewers lack an adequate number of starters. But i really dont understand why so many people are against the idea of trading parra to get peavy. Yea manny's shown flashes of being great, but his ceiling is a #2 pitcher, and he's probably more likely a really solid third starter. Why youre not willing to trade him in order to set up a few years (this isnt a rental like sabathia was) of a team with two aces. Seriously, whats better: Gallardo/Parra at the top of the rotation or Peavy/Gallardo? Its not even close, the man is a cy young contender every year, at a reasonable price for a proven ace.

 

Giving up both Parra and Jeffress would be tough and I'd probably be 50/50 on it(depends on the other prospects too)...but too many people are making it sound like Parra should be untouchable.

[Weirdos19]

Is Jeffress in our plans to start next year? I would say no.

 

Peavy, Yo, Bush, Suppan, Capuano/Villy/McClung

 

I'd say you are strengthening a weakness more than losing a pitcher. Until the Cubs become a team full of lefty hitters, the Brewers need to have a wealth of right handed starters.

 

Rosenthal states that a Weeks and Hardy combo could snap the Padres attention. We could replace Hardy with Escobar then platoon Hall and Durham. We lose a bit, but not a ton.

[endaround]

Rosenthal only says that because baseball reporters are allergic to actually looking at the Baseball America website to try to find out about minor leaguers. The Brewers could trade Jeffress, Salome, Escobar, Greene and Gabe Kapler for Peavy and national headlines would read "Peavy traded for Gabe Kapler and 4 minor leaguers"

[jwill535]

That is because to 99% of baseball/sportsfans have no idea who the minor leaguers are so it makes no sense to mention them until they are major leaguers. You have to think like an editor here, if you mention the minor leaguers you would have to have a couple paragraphs of qualifiers describing each player. Even with those they are still just minor league stats.

[TheCrew07]

Yes, assuming the worst in free agency, the brewers lack an adequate number of starters. But i really dont understand why so many people are against the idea of trading parra to get peavy. Yea manny's shown flashes of being great, but his ceiling is a #2 pitcher, and he's probably more likely a really solid third starter.

 

Giving up both Parra and Jeffress would be tough and I'd probably be 50/50 on it(depends on the other prospects too)...but too many people are making it sound like Parra should be untouchable.

I keep seeing this notion about Parra being a 2 best case, but more likely a 3 and I have to ask based on what? How many lefties out there can legitimately run the ball up there in the mid 90s? Instead of throwing every breaking ball known to man he'd probably better served narrowing it down to 2 and refining those 2 pitches. However there is no way his physical talent is that of a 3 pitcher... maybe he's soft mentally, but I'm not ready to jump on that bandwagon after 1 year.

 

I've already posted multiple times my opinion of why it's not a good idea to trade pitching from a system that doesn't have much pitching, and I've already posted how trading multiple players including big league talent for Peavy is most likely a net loss win share wise. These are simple concepts and either you haven't read the entire thread or you don't agree but to say you "don't understand"... well then you aren't even considering the alternative point of view or aren't trying very hard.

 

Finally trading the organization's top pitching prospects behind Yo creates a void which vitually ensures the 3-5 spots are pitchers no better than Dave Bush for the next 2 years, maybe 3. Dumping Parra/Jeffress would leave Periard/Braddock and while anyone who follows the minor league side knows I'm personally high on those 2 kids, neither is a sure thing, nor is Jeffress. I'd like options with higher ceilings and miniscule contracts instead of Bush, Suppan, Suppanesque FA in 2010. Acquiring Peavy and another FA pitcher basically means that Peavy, Suppan, FA pitcher would account for roughly $32 million in 2009... Cameron's option would make it $42... meaning half of the payroll would be eaten up by 4 players, 3 of which are roughly league average, which to me isn't a very good way to construct a ball club.

[paul253]

I just dont see how you can improve the team that much by including Parra in the deal. Bush is not a #3 pitcher. He is way too inconsistent and rely on Bush, Suppan, and McClung would be a disaster. If you trade Jeffress you have no minor league depth but at least you'll have 3 quality starters for at least 3 more years, plus Suppan to hold down a spot for another 2 years. Hopefully in those 3 years some prospects develope and you can replace Peavy Gallardo and Parra if need be but no way do I include Parra or Gallardo in a deal for Peavy.

[nate82]

I keep seeing this notion about Parra being a 2 best case, but more likely a 3 and I have to ask based on what? How many lefties out there can legitimately run the ball up there in the mid 90s? Instead of throwing every breaking ball known to man he'd probably better served narrowing it down to 2 and refining those 2 pitches. However there is no way his physical talent is that of a 3 pitcher... maybe he's soft mentally, but I'm not ready to jump on that bandwagon after 1 year.

 

I've already posted multiple times my opinion of why it's not a good idea to trade pitching from a system that doesn't have much pitching, and I've already posted how trading multiple players including big league talent for Peavy is most likely a net loss win share wise. These are simple concepts and either you haven't read the entire thread or you don't agree but to say you "don't understand"... well then you aren't even considering the alternative point of view or aren't trying very hard.

I don't think the Brewers will trade Parra and Jeffress in a deal and they won't have to either. The Yankees are going to offer Hughes, Cano, and someone else. The Red Sox could easily bet that deal with Lawrie, Masterson, and Ellsbury assuming the Red Sox also get Greene. The Braves could offer Escobar, and one or two of their minor league prospects.

 

I don't see how the Padres are going to get 2 high pitching prospects plus high position players. The market for Peavy will be high but it won't be as high as some people think it is.

 

If the Brewers put an offer out with Parra/Jeffress, Hardy/Escobar, Gwynn, and Braddock/Periard. This deal would be close to what the A's got for Haren. This is also a better deal than what the Yankees and Cardinals could put out there. The teams that could easily outbid the Brewers in terms of prospects would be the Red Sox and the Braves.

 

I don't see the Braves putting there two best prospects on the market and Yunell Escobar in a trade. I just don't see the Braves doing this and if they do this I don't believe they are a better team because of it. The Red Sox really wouldn't be losing much of anything with getting Peavy in this deal other than losing probably their best CF so I doubt they would put Ellsbury in a deal.

 

With the Yankees deal I don't see how the Padres can accept Cano's big contract. I believe Cano is going to be a good to a great 2B but he has an over valued contract right now and I don't see the Padres taking on that contract even if Greene is in the deal. The Yankees would have to pay for nearly all of Cano's contract and Greene's contract also. I don't see that as a possibility but the Yankess have suprised me a couple times before.

 

Even if the Brewers trade away Hardy they could get Greene back in his place and Escobar would take over in 2010. If Escobar is traded in this deal the Brewers would have to lock up Hardy since there really isn't anyone in the minor league system who is anywhere near ready to play SS for the Brewers by 2012. Just my opinion here other than Escobar I don't see anyone on the Brewers minor league system who would be a good SS.

 

I don't believe the Cardinals will make a run at Peavy. The Cardinals do need pitching but Rasmus in RF or CF would be a better option than trading him away. The Cardinals really need some more bats and unless the Cardinals are really down on Carpenter and they don't believe he will return to what he was I don't see the Cardinals trading for Peavy.

 

The market is actually as bad for the Padres as it was for the Twins. Yes there is interest but I don't think there are that many teams that are going to be willing to trade with the Padres given the no trade clause.

 

Even the Brewers may back out of the Peavy talks which will hurt the Padres more than some people may think. If the Brewers back out that is a lot of prospects and even MLB proven players off the list for the Padres which would bring the cost for Peavy down a bit. The Brewers could back off and decide instead to use their prospects to land another left handed bat to protect Prince and Braun for the year.

 

Maybe the Brewers do make a run for Peavy we have the prospects to do it but you have to ask yourself is it worth it? I believe it is depending on the deal and who is involved in the deal.

[Patrick425]

Wow, this seems to be a long thread and a lot of discussion for a player who chances of getting traded are not very high at all. It sounds to me like the Padres are willing to trade anyone. However, it also sound to me like they are not shopping Peavey and will only consider offers for him if they involve talks with a GM from another team that has lost his mind.

 

edit: Ok, never mind, my mistake. Didn't read through all the posts thouroughly or the "Off-season trade market" thread. Didn't realize that the Padres actually have stated what they want in return for Peavey. I still think that if they do trade him, the team getting him will probably end up giving up too much.

[nate82]

Wow, this seems to be a long thread and a lot of discussion for a player who chances of getting traded are not very high at all.

I would say the chances of Peavy getting traded is at about 65% for him being traded sometime between after the world series and the trading deadline. I would put it at 40% of him being traded this winter though. I'm confident that he will be traded but will the Padres get the full value for him? I doubt they will be able to get the full value of Peavy from teams. The Yankees and Red Sox are hording their prospects more than in the past. Though Hughes has been rumored to be on the block for Peavy. The teams that the Padres would like to get in on the deal I would say have to be the Brewers, Braves, Rays, Red Sox, and the Angels. These teams have the highest value to the Padres I believe in the prospects and already proven players that the Padres would like to acquire.

 

I still don't believe the Brewers will trade for Peavy though. I believe the Brewers will go after another left handed bat to help balance the lineup.

[ILuvDaBush]

What about expanding the deal to include Brian Giles? If we packaged Hardy/Hart/Braddock for Peavy/Giles (whose option they were on the fence about picking up, and now it seems even more likely will be moved). It wouldn't leave much money for improving third base or our bullpen, but he would be an ideal leadoff hitter or #2 with his OBP.

[sbrylski]

I like that idea, though I'm still skeptical the Padres would want Hardy over say Escobar. And I highly highly doubt Peavey moves without getting at least one pitcher in return.

 

I'm guessing it would take more like Hart / Escobar / Jeffress for Peavy / Giles.

[nate82]

What about expanding the deal to include Brian Giles? If we packaged Hardy/Hart/Braddock for Peavy/Giles (whose option they were on the fence about picking up, and now it seems even more likely will be moved). It wouldn't leave much money for improving third base or our bullpen, but he would be an ideal leadoff hitter or #2 with his OBP.

I believe Giles blocked a trade during the season stating he doesn't want to go anywhere else than San Diego. I believe he was going to be traded to the Red Sox. I don't see Giles being an option in a trade at all I believe he has a full no trade clause if the Padres pick up his option which it looks like they are going to do.

[ILuvDaBush]

Didn't he block the trade because he wasn;t going to be a full-time player? I believe they just wanted insurance and were going to use him as a 4th OF. For the Brew Crew, he would get the most trips to the buffet line (most ABs).

[nate82]

Didn't he block the trade because he wasn;t going to be a full-time player? I believe they just wanted insurance and were going to use him as a 4th OF. For the Brew Crew, he would get the most trips to the buffet line (most ABs).

That was part of it yes but I believe there was a quote where he said he didn't want to leave San Diego and that was the main reason why he blocked the trade to Boston.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I'll echo doubts that Giles would be available, but if he were, he'd be a huge addition. He was about half a win more valuable on offense than Braun this year -- that's how good a hitter he is, though nobody seems to realize it. Advanced metrics still like his defense a lot, too, but even if you discount those he was almost 4 wins better than Corey Hart on offense alone. If you believe that Giles really was 15 runs better than an average RF, he was over 5 wins better than Corey Hart overall. That's a cataclysmically large gap.

[TheCrew07]

If Braddock was the pitcher included I'd be down, it would probably also take Lucroy/Salome to make it work looking at their roster and system... Hardy, Hart, Braddock, Salome/Lucory for Peavy and Giles... that would be a tough trade for me personally and 3 of my favorite players in the system would get shipped, but it would improve the rotation and end up around a wash with the position players... better D all the way around, less offense at short and more in RF...

 

edit. It pains me to say it but I'd throw in an A baller in Bowman or similar as well, just leave me Parra and Jeffress.

[ecjimg]

I cant even get myself to speculate on compensation or dream about Peavy in the rotation until I hear that Melvin has given an indication that he would make an offer. We dont have to be "front-runners" like in the CC trade....just more than one of the other 29 that might match up.

[nate82]

As I expected it doesn't look like the Cardinals are going to go after Peavy. Bernie Miklasz from the STLtoday says that he talked to some people in the Cardinals organization and they said that there were talks but nothing came of them. That rules out the Cardinals for now.

 

I believe Sabathia will be signed before Peavy gets traded though. If we lose out on Sabathia which I believe we will I wouldn't be suprised to see Melvin go after Peavy who would be a better fit than a FA signing.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Count me in for Hart/Escobar/Jeffress for Peavy/Giles

 

Weeks/Durham

Cameron

Braun

Fielder

Hardy

Giles

Branyan/Hall (late season call up for Gamel)

Kendall/Rivera

 

Peavy, Yo, Parra, Bush, Soup

[paul253]

i think it would take a lot more than Hart Escobar and Jeffress to get those two.

[yoshii8]

I think that would be a very good offer, Escobar and Jeffress are both considered in the top 25-50 prospects in all of the minor leagues, and Hart is still only 26 and coming off two 20/20 seasons. If it takes a lot more than that, I don't think the Padres are being realistic.