Jake Peavy

[TheCrew07]

RyDogg I get your point and I even empathize with it, but Peavy is a too big a of risk for me personally. I made the point after the Sabathia offer went public that I would have rather signed Teixeira for that money and move Fielder. If it comes to spending big dollars, I'd rather they spend the money on a bat than an arm, FA big money arms scare me to death, call me a wuss, that's fine, but that's how I feel about them.

 

Again the Brewers didn't sign Hammonds, they signed Looper (whom I didn't want). Hoffman (whom I was indifferent towards), and exercised Cam's option. They were able to plug 3 holes on the team for the cost of 1 player, and there's value in fielding an entire starting roster that doesn't have a single player of replacement level quality on it. They aren't going to get 7.7 or 7.9 WAR out of the players to equal Sabathia's level of production, but they won't get negative WAR out of any of the positions either (I would hope Looper gets back over 1 by the end of the season). The rotation is solid yet unspectacular in that there's no doubt, but the guys to target are high potential unproven arms around the league, not the established arms that much more costly to acquire both in terms of talent and dollar value.

[logan82]

the guys to target are high potential unproven arms around the league, not the established arms that much more costly to acquire both in terms of talent and dollar value.

 

Do you mean other teams top pitching prospects? I would rather target secondary pitching prospects and get more of them than top pitching prospects. Top pitching prospects are not likely to be much of a bargain and pitchers have a much higher injury/failure rate than position players.

 

I totally agree with putting money into FA position players instead of pitching. As far as free agents go, I prefer shorter contracts in general.

[TheCrew]

Not sure how you are coming up with 150. He should get at least 32 starts which would put him at just under 170 innings at his current rate.

I worded that poorly, my line of thinking was that if he continues to pitch the way he does he'll end up a closer to 150 than he would to 180/190

 

At most he would get 32 starts - 113 games left, divide that by 5 and it is 22.6 - if he stays healthy all season, doesn't get skipped and starts to pitch better then he'll get another 22 starts and hit the 32 mark. However, if he continues to pitch the way he has this season I don't see Macha sticking with him over the course of the entire season - if Macha does then he should hit the 170 mark - but I think he's going to get a demotion if he continues to give batters free passes..... if he can get his control under control, then we might see him reach his potential, but something just seems off with him..... not sure if it's just a lack of experience and/or confidence, but one stat that jumps out at me is how he is matching up against lefties this year. They are hitting .333 against him and he's given up 10 walks to lefties (2.29 WHIP)....... that's just unacceptable for a LHP.

 

I hope he gets it together, but I wouldn't be sad to see him go along with some lower level prospects if it meant we were gettinng a #1 pitcher back.

[TooLiveBrew]

not sure if it's just a lack of experience and/or confidence, but one stat that jumps out at me is how he is matching up against lefties this year. They are hitting .333 against him and he's given up 10 walks to lefties (2.29 WHIP)....... that's just unacceptable for a LHP

 

But if you look at what might reasonably be expected going forward, does that kind of production from a pitcher that had as much success as Manny did in the minors seem like a good guesstimate? I see that kind of production and think that, barring injury, Parra will greatly improve. It just doesn't add up that a guy who really was able to dominate in the minors would hit the bigs & suddenly not only forget how to keep his BBs down, but also forget how to get same-sided hitters out.

 

For as much Parra defending as I feel drawn to do, and as much Peavy-critiquing as I've done, as long as the package to SD wasn't much more than just Parra straight-up, I really could get on-board with it. I agree with those who have commented on the Pads' need to move Peavy, and that every day he stays put really sees his trade value drop. The only part that still scares me is the possibility that the trading team would have to agree to pick up his final year's option. That's a lot of money.

[TeeJayh1980]

Peavy threw a 4 hit shutout against me(as the Brewers) last night while playing MLB The Show '09 on the Playstation 3, if that means anything. :-)

[rluzinski]

I guessed that Parra is around a 4.5 ERA pitcher and Peavy at around 3.5.

 

That's probably what I would use as well, right now. Parra is the younger guy though, so it's difficult to get a very accurate projection. I'd also be tempted to assume something like 20 extra innings a year from Peavy. It's a huge difference but not enough to justify all that money, injury risk and prospects, I don't think.

[endaround]

Which is why there is no reason why Parra should be included in such a deal. If the Brewers can't make a deal some other way (and given the meager White Sox package, they should be able to) you don't and move onto Bedard or whoever.

[Hate those Rodents]

I just read somewhere that Seattle wants the same type of package for Bedard as Peavy, basically implying that they will be marketing him as if he is equal to Peavy.

[endaround]

They can say that but take what the Cubs offered for Harden and then discount it by 1 less year and you have what the rate should be.

[RyDogg66]

Wont be long and San Diego wont take Manny Parra off our hands and the entire discussion will be moot.

[SZBrewerFan]

Peavey was removed after one inning tonight against the Phillies. Now granted he gave up 4 runs in the first, but that seems kind of odd. Your ace will get knocked around from time to time, but you sure don't kill your bullpen by removing him after a 4 spot in the first unless he is hurt or well.........not YOUR ace anymore.

[Invader3K]

Hmmmm...that is kind of odd. I don't think you can read too much into it at this point though.

[crewcrazy]

ESPNEWS' bottom line says Peavy left due to flu-like symptoms. He's also dealing with a sore ankle, according to a Rotoworld post from May 30. Doesn't look like anything too serious in either case.

[PrinceEatMeat]

He was battling an ankle injury. His start was in jeopardy in the first place. So he probably got removed for precautionary reasons.

[jjfanec]

Don't read anything into Peavy leaving early. MLB said he had the flu

[bobskube]

Heard some interesting things today so stay tuned. Cant quote anything and no links.

 

1. Peavy may have dropped "no trade" to Brewers in private. This obviously would allow the Brewers to ramp up talks with Pads.

 

2. The Cards are trying to acquire him quietly as well. FYI... (Yes, it seems odd the Cards would want him because their starters are pretty good but rumor is Lohse may be pitching hurt.)

[Invader3K]

That's interesting, thanks for posting that.

 

Not that it's that substantive, but on the D-List today Drew Olson said he felt the Brewers have "no chance" to get him.

 

If something is going to happen, I hope it does sooner than later. I'm kind of tired of the non-stop Peavy speculation, even though I realize I've contributed to this thread quite a bit.

[bobskube]

Invader...I have wasted too much time on it too. Sorry to keep bringing it back.

[Invader3K]

No...I think it's obvious Melvin and Towers have at least probably discussed something. It's just frustrating not seeing anything actually happen. At this point if he went to the Cards or Cubs, I wouldn't mind that much, because at least all this talk would finally be settled.

[RyDogg66]

Heard some interesting things today so stay tuned. Cant quote anything and no links.

 

1. Peavy may have dropped "no trade" to Brewers in private. This obviously would allow the Brewers to ramp up talks with Pads.

 

2. The Cards are trying to acquire him quietly as well. FYI... (Yes, it seems odd the Cards would want him because their starters are pretty good but rumor is Lohse may be pitching hurt.)

Thanks for the heads up. Please keep us informed if you hear anything either way!

[RyDogg66]

By the way, if Peavy has dropped his no trade to Milwaukee and Melvin and Towers are talking, I could see something happening shortly after the draft, once Melvin sees what his haul is and where the organization stands depth-wise.

[TheCrew]

Thanks for the updates bob - good stuff.

 

A guy on the JSOnline blogs is claiming that he heard on a chicago radio station that a Peavy trade is close to being done with the cards or brewers....... take it for what it's worth but I thought I would pass it along.

[Invader3K]

I always have problems with those rumors that cite "a radio station" rather than a specific frequency or call sign. Edit: Actually, I found that post and it cites WMVP (ESPN 1000), so at least that's something. Not much else to it apparently, though.

[bobskube]

I am on vacation and had not talked to my contact since early last week. I just checked this website and all these rumors are blowing up so I just left a message with my guy to see if any of this has to do with Peavy.

 

I will keep you posted if I hear anything.

[RyDogg66]

awesome, thanks bob.