Jake Peavy

[nate82]

I guess I just don't see this. Yeah, Sabathia was an impending free agent, but you were guaranteed to get two picks for him if he didn't sign. Peavy has a no trade clause that's very specific. There are only a couple of suitors that he would accept a trade to and that could use him. That severely limits his value and the Padres want him off the payroll.

 

I don't view the White Sox offer that was accepted better than the Sabathia haul.

At best that trade was equal to what the Twins got for trading Santana.

[logan82]

would you rather have 1 great player or 3 average to good players for the same money?

 

It costs less to upgrade a position from bad to average/good than upgrading from average/good to great. Is that what you are trying to say? I agree. $17M for Peavy only gets us 2-3 extra wins if he is there instead of Parra. It is much cheaper/easier to get a Looper level player to replace a McClung level player like we did this year.

 

Fangraphs Peavy

Fangraphs Parra

[RyDogg66]

I would rather have one Manny Ramirez than 3 Jeffrey Hammonds...or one Jake Peavy over two Jeff Suppans.

I don't think Peavy to Sabathia is a valid comparison at all. It doesn't really matter who the prospects are going to SD, Sabathia would have been much more valuable to the Brewers than Peavy would be, and by a wide margin. Prospects are not valueless, the value is just difficult to project at the time of the trade, as is their potential value to the Brewers had they stayed in the system.

 

100 million, same type of pitching numbers, a year older, more innings, not getting two comp picks AND we gave up LaPorta and Brantley...and Sabathia is more valuable by a wide margain??

[igor67]

Since the jury is still out on Parra being more than a back end of the rotation starter ( I think he will some day, but he ain't done it yet) it is worth pointing out the number of quality starting pitchers Milwaukee has actually developed in the last decade plus... 2. That is not anywhere close to enough to demonstrate any evidence we can fill out the rotation consistently with homegrown players. You need to have a mix, and payroll flexibility is nice, but you can end up churning aimlessly through a lot of prospect depth every year if you have to constantly try and plug holes by making trades. Peavy is the chance to turn a number of low percentage plays into a high percentage one and for a long time. We have demonstrated a lot of ability to crank out competent hitters in contrast to the pitchers, so it makes a lot of sense to pick your fey key guys to really pay and churn everyone else. Again going with high percentage bets, Peavey is a much better bet to be well above average over the next 3 years than any 3 of our pitching prospects put together.

[bobskube]

Just heard about major problem with this deal. Axelrod understandably does not want to say either way if Peavy will drop no-trade clause until deal is on the table with possible team and Padres. This gives him more leverage for the option for 22 million.

 

This makes business sense to me, but I would NOT do this deal if we guaranteed that last year. The deal is already risky enough. I just don't see this happening now because Brewers won't play that game. Axelrod will have to drop demands before much else happens with Brewers. He is a good agent so he will wait it out and see if anyone gets desperate.

 

The bottom line is that the Padres HAVE to make a Peavy deal. This waiting game could help Brewers in the end because every day that passes, the less value Peavy has. However, I change my original stance and say a trade for Peavy with anyone won't happen for awhile unless (a) a team gets desperate or (b) Axelrod drops demands. Option A is an option that the Brewers wil NOT explore unless a Hall or Suppan was taken in exchange.

[southpaw121505]

Good stuff Bob, thanks for sharing. Any idea on if the teams are close or agreed in terms of compensation? If they want him they might as well throw an offer on the table and if the Pads accept it and get to talking with Axelrod and if they are firm on guaranteeing that option then we can stop wasting our time.

[TheCrew]

It costs less to upgrade a position from bad to average/good than upgrading from average/good to great. Is that what you are trying to say? I agree. $17M for Peavy only gets us 2-3 extra wins if he is there instead of Parra. It is much cheaper/easier to get a Looper level player to replace a McClung level player like we did this year.

 

Fangraphs Peavy

Fangraphs Parra

I'll preface by saying I'm not into all the stat predictions and perhaps I am reading it wrong but Zips projection has:

Peavy going 16 and 11 with 200+ innings and a 3.41 ERA

Parra going 8 and 13 with 151 innings and a 5.00 ERA

 

Yes, if the trade happened Peavy's ERA may jump a little with the move to Miller - but he'll also get better run support and it would also be about 50 less innings on the BP.... that could prove to be extremely valuable at the end of the season. To me, if those numbers even come close it is worth a heck of a lot more than 2-3 wins.

[Invader3K]

Just heard about major problem with this deal. Axelrod understandably does not want to say either way if Peavy will drop no-trade clause until deal is on the table with possible team and Padres. This gives him more leverage for the option for 22 million.

 

It sure seems like Peavy's camp has dinked around on this quite a bit this off-season. You have to wonder if he actually wants to get traded or not.

[splitterpfj]

I understand the risk involved with taking on a big contract, but the more I think about this, the more I want the Brewers to go get Peavy.

 

He's still young, and he's good...very good. Pitching wins, I think a rotation that started off with Peavy and Gallardo would be very fun to watch for the next few seasons.

 

My issue isn't the money, it's sorting out the players to send to San Diego. They want to add arms, which is exactly the wrong match for the Brewers right now. Parra would seemingly have to go in the deal, but where do you go from there?

 

I could see a deal that did not include Gamel or Escobar, IF the Brewers had enough pitching to send to the Padres...but unless it's mostly A-ball guys, the Brewers just aren't in that position right now.

 

My guess...a lot more tire kicking, but no deal.

 

I don't know that the Phillies are the best match either, or that Peavy would ok a trade to that ballpark...but watch for them to aggressively pursue every possible deal for pitching.

[PeaveyFury]

Just heard about major problem with this deal. Axelrod understandably does not want to say either way if Peavy will drop no-trade clause until deal is on the table with possible team and Padres. This gives him more leverage for the option for 22 million.

 

Definitely makes sense, as that's been speculated on quite a bit. Really no surprise there- to get the no trade clause waived, the team that gets him probably has to guarantee the option.

[kramnoj]

There are plenty of reasons to not like a Peavy deal, and they have all been pointed out. But the option year doesn't scare me that much. I figure the Brewers could just give Peavy away to the Yankees in the last year (there doesn't seem to be any no trade protection for that option year).

[Invader3K]

This was on MLB Trade Rumors this morning:

 

According to Colin Fly of the AP (via the Chicago Tribune) Brewers GM Doug Melvin said he's not involved in any trade talks now. Many writers have wondered about Milwaukee's interest in Jake Peavy, but the Brewers aren't currently negotiating with the Padres.

 

"We don't have any trade discussions going on with anybody," Melvin said.

 

Well, take that for whatever it's worth, I guess.

[bobskube]

Good stuff Bob, thanks for sharing. Any idea on if the teams are close or agreed in terms of compensation?

I don't have any idea although I am sure ideas have been exchanged in passing. I usually get info from agent perspective more than the organizational stuff. The Brewers are not gonna leak any info to a schmo like me although I know some people in organization that usually are not privy to real detailed info but can confirm some things from time to time.

[splitterpfj]

Sometimes I can get scouts to tell me what other teams have been scouting the Brewers' minor league teams, or where they may have run into Brewers scouts at MLB stadiums, etc.

 

No one has shared anything like that with me on this one. I believe Melvin when he says there's not much going on with it right now, but I also believe that will change. I think the hangup is SD's request for pitching...the Brewers just don't match up with that very well right now.

 

I think the Brewers will wait a few weeks for a couple of reasons...1. To make sure this team is actually as competitive as its current record suggests, and 2. Knowing SD's options are limited, the Brewers may be hoping the Padres move away from targeting arms, and begin looking for the best deal, period.

[logan82]

TheCrew wrote:

Yes, if the trade happened Peavy's ERA may jump a little with the move to Miller - but he'll also get better run support and it would also be about 50 less innings on the BP.... that could prove to be extremely valuable at the end of the season. To me, if those numbers even come close it is worth a heck of a lot more than 2-3 wins.

I wouldn't really look at the innings predictions. 151 innings is a way low expectation of Parra. He should be in the 180-190 range pretty easily(barring injury of course). Parra went 166 last year and was pulled from the rotation for at least half a month. I have no idea how they came up with the innings prediction. They also predict a 5.00 ERA. I doubt he is that high by the end of the year. I am sure the ERA prediction will go back down in a couple starts. It just looks bad now because of the 8 ER start in Minnesota.

[TheCrew07]

Sabathia had already been acquired and was being offered a FA contract, he was not my preferred pitcher but the Sabathia acquisition broke a playoff drought dating back to '82. There was value in that beyond his WAR, which was still oustanding, I have no problem conceding that point. I also stated if we won a WS with Peavy in the rotation I'd change my tune because that's my ultimate goal, that's really the only way I could justify the Peavy deal to myself. Since the cost of Sabathia for THIS season was dollars, Sabathia and Peavy do not compare at all in terms of cost, nor do they compare in terms of production on the field, Sabathia is far and away the better pitcher.

 

You can grab any extreme example to make a point I guess, 3 Hammonds compared to Ramirez? How do we even adequately discuss something like that? The 3 players that are on the roster using Sabathia's 20 mil out performed Peavy last season, and have outperformed him so far this season. Are 3 Duffy's worth 1 Peavy? Of course not, but what's the point of such an extreme example?

[RyDogg66]

Hammonds is the type of average to good free agent that the Brewers spent tons of money on from 97-2003. I prefer a Sabathia/McClung rotation over a Suppand/Looper combo. Same goes for Peavy and McClung, or even Dillard. Spend money on the best there is, because if you are spending it on Jeffrey Hammonds, Sean Berry or Jeff Suppan you are wasting your dollars as the difference from 500k to 8-10 million to sign those players is huge compared to the talent increase, but the difference from 8-10 million for the average free agents to the 16-17 million for the Jake Peavy's of the world is huge in terms of talent.

 

I never want to go back to the Hammonds days.

[nate82]

I really like Parra and I get all the money value and win value stuff but as a fan I would rather have Peavy, Gallardo, Bush, Braddock, Scarpetta or Peavy, Gallardo, Braddock, Scarpetta, Jeffress in three years than Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Braddock, Scarpetta. I believe we would lose Bush if the Brewers get Peavy but I believe Braddock and Scarpetta could easily replace Bush's value to the team. This is assuming the Brewers are able to pull off a Santana type of a trade with the Padres which I feel is very possible.

 

But if the option presented itself and the Brewers had to choose between getting Peavy or Webb I would choose Webb over Peavy in every situation.

 

It really does depend on the trade for Peavy though. If the Brewers are able to pull off a Santana type of a trade where the Brewers send Jeffress, Gillespie, Dillard, and a player to be named later I would be fine with that. If the Brewers have to trade say Scarpetta, Braddock, or Odorizzi along with Jeffress or Parra then I wouldn't go with it that is just to much to give up for Peavy. I believe Webb would cost more than Peavy for the simple fact that Webb will be easier to move for the D'backs than Peavy will be for the Padres.

[endaround]

Well you won't have Bush in three years, so there's that. Scarpetta in 3 years is also pushing it. Webb will cost a lot more to get than Peavy and he's unlikely to be useful at all this year.

[RyDogg66]

If and this is a big if, we trade Fielder before his contract expires (this off season?) I would expect MLB pitching in return, possibly replacing Parra or Jeffress if they are traded for Peavy. I just thing that the Padres will end up getting about what Minnesota got for Santana, which is to say, not much.

[endaround]

I doubt its this off season. The Brewers don't have anybody (except Gamel which they are unlikely to want to move right now) to play there. They could of course sign someone but thats a gamble given that the market looks to be crap next year compared to this year's 1B/DH overflow. I still say 2011 is the year they'll rebuild when they have to find 3 starting pitchers, break in a new SS, likely a new a catcher and likely a new CFer. You have Hart, Fielder and Weeks all with one year left at that point and all three could be shipped out to reload.

[nate82]

Well you won't have Bush in three years, so there's that. Scarpetta in 3 years is also pushing it. Webb will cost a lot more to get than Peavy and he's unlikely to be useful at all this year.

I don't believe it is pushing it with Scarpetta being in the bigs in 3 years he should be in AA next year and AAA the following year the third year he should be rather close to being on the major league club. Also 2B and SS will be filled within 3 years SS should be filled next year by Escobar. Even if Escobar isn't the starting SS next year that means the Brewers have signed Hardy to an extension and Escobar is probably traded for some pitching prospects. If Escobar is the starting SS next year Hardy would have been traded for you guessed it pitching prospects.

 

Even if Scarpetta and Braddock are not ready in 3 years which could be a possibility you can still get the starting pitching you need through trading Hardy or Hart. I believe Hart could bring in a #4 or a #5 pitcher. The Brewers have a lot of options they can explore this year and even this next offseason .

 

Yes Webb is going to cost more than Peavy that is obvious with the trade situation the way it is. If Webb is healthy he brings in more than Peavy.

 

I believe the Brewers can afford Peavy both financially and talent wise b/c I believe the Padres have painted themselves into a corner like the Twins did and they are going to have to take the best available package for Peavy. It is going to come down to the Cardinals, Cubs, and Brewers I believe and maybe maybe the Reds. The Reds would be interesting I think since they could offer Bailey who I think the Reds have lost confidence in. Who else would be added into the mix with the Reds I don't know but I believe the Reds are a real dark horse for Peavy.

[endaround]

Or the Brewers keep Hardy for a year because they can't take the 2-3 win hit playing Escobar means. There is no reason Escobar can't spend 2 years in AAA in the hope he develops some power.

[TheCrew]

I wouldn't really look at the innings predictions. 151 innings is a way low expectation of Parra. He should be in the 180-190 range pretty easily(barring injury of course). Parra went 166 last year and was pulled from the rotation for at least half a month. I have no idea how they came up with the innings prediction. They also predict a 5.00 ERA. I doubt he is that high by the end of the year. I am sure the ERA prediction will go back down in a couple starts. It just looks bad now because of the 8 ER start in Minnesota.

Parra should be in the 180-190 range but unless he turns things around quickly, he is going to end up at around 150. He's averaging a bit over 5 innings per start now and yes, the ERA is bad because of the twins game but even if you take that start away he still has an era of 4.5 - I like Parra too, but I think some of us (including myself) overestimated how good he would be.

[logan82]

Not sure how you are coming up with 150. He should get at least 32 starts which would put him at just under 170 innings at his current rate.