Jake Peavy

[bklynbrewcrew]

Listen Peavy has thrown a lot of innings over the years and his mechanics are not exactly smooth. Can this team really afford his contract if he gets hurt. I would far rather resign Hardy and trade Escobar for a good young starter than trade for Peavy and blow all of our payroll flexibilty for years to come.

[jjfanec]

I don't know if I'd be upset by offering him 4/70 necessarily, but it wouldn't be a slam dunk in my eyes. The way it's backloaded makes it a huge risk. That 2013 amount of 22 million is a huge burden. He's had nagging injury issues creep up the last couple years, and his fastball is already down a couple ticks. He's already seen his best days. He's still young, but so was Ben Sheets when the Brewers re-signed him. If fans thought Sheets was overpaid (wasn't at all), they could end up despising Peavy. Sheets was good enough to still be worth 10 mil or more when he was injured for partial seasons, but at an average of 17 mil per season Peavy will need to stay healthy.

Since it is assumed the option has to be picked up would the Brewers be able to simply renegotiate the deal so the money would be the same overall but similar year to year. I am sure Peavy does not care when he gets the money. I do not know what Peavy used to throw since you said his fastball is slowing but he is usually still throwing 93 late in games according to Gameday. His stuff must be pretty good right now as he leads the league or at least is close to it in strike outs.

As for injuries he missed some time last year but he has never pitched less than 27 games as a starter in a season. I feel like people expect him to get seriously hurt because he never has been hurt before. He is only 28 years old so he has years left in him. It seems to me that people are under-selling Peavy here big time as another poster mentioned. His stuff is still good. His contract is not actually that bad. We have a lot of money coming off the books after next season, when we lose Suppan, Hall and in all reality probably Prince as well.

The other issue about him being better at home than on the road is kind of a non-issue to me because most struggle more on the road than at home. Yo's ERA is 2.6 at home and 4 on the road for his career, so should another team worry about trading for him because his ERA and peripherals are worse on the road?

[Invader3K]

Listen Peavy has thrown a lot of innings over the years and his mechanics are not exactly smooth. Can this team really afford his contract if he gets hurt. I would far rather resign Hardy and trade Escobar for a good young starter than trade for Peavy and blow all of our payroll flexibilty for years to come.

 

I'm doubting the Brewers would be able to sign Hardy long term. I wish I was wrong, but I think if it were going to happen, it would have by now. Hardy is not stupid, he knows he's one of the premier shortstops in the NL, and probably has a huge payday coming. I summed up a lot of my feelings on the Peavy situation in my latest blog entry, link is in my sig. (Sorry to be a blog %$%+@, but I don't want to keep rehashing the same stuff here).

[logan82]

I guessed that Parra is around a 4.5 ERA pitcher and Peavy at around 3.5. I think Parra is actually going to be better than that. Using Zips updated prediction, Parra/5.00 and Peavy/3.41, it pushes it up to 3.5 wins. Assuming the same number of innings of course. Replacing any of Parra's innings with bulpen inings would make it less since most likely he would be replaced with a reliever with an ERA no higher than 4. We only have one nonLoogy reliever with an ERA over 4(Julio) or 2 over 4 if you count Stetter.

[jjfanec]

I guessed that Parra is around a 4.5 ERA pitcher and Peavy at around 3.5. I think Parra is actually going to be better than that. Using Zips updated prediction, Parra/5.00 and Peavy/3.41, it pushes it up to 3.5 wins. Assuming the same number of innings of course. Replacing any of Parra's innings with bulpen inings would make it less since most likely he would be replaced with a reliever with an ERA no higher than 4. We only have one nonLoogy reliever with an ERA over 4(Julio) or 2 over 4 if you count Stetter.

But the more you use those relievers the less effective they will be down the stretch. It is great they are pitching well now but Parra's tendency to not get past 6 innings, along with Suppan and Looper who do not seem to go deep into games will wear this bullpen down. A guy like Peavy can pitch a lot of innings and keep the bullpen fresh.

[TheCrew]

Good read Invader - Whether it is Peavy, Lee, Webb or someone else, I expect the brewers to acquire an above average pitcher within the next month. I think Melvin and Mark A know they have a window here and they are going to approach it aggressively.

[RyDogg66]

I guessed that Parra is around a 4.5 ERA pitcher and Peavy at around 3.5. I think Parra is actually going to be better than that. Using Zips updated prediction, Parra/5.00 and Peavy/3.41, it pushes it up to 3.5 wins. Assuming the same number of innings of course. Replacing any of Parra's innings with bulpen inings would make it less since most likely he would be replaced with a reliever with an ERA no higher than 4. We only have one nonLoogy reliever with an ERA over 4(Julio) or 2 over 4 if you count Stetter.

But the more you use those relievers the less effective they will be down the stretch. It is great they are pitching well now but Parra's tendency to not get past 6 innings, along with Suppan and Looper who do not seem to go deep into games will wear this bullpen down. A guy like Peavy can pitch a lot of innings and keep the bullpen fresh.

Yeah I dont see how Parra's inability to go deep in games HELPS bridge the gap between him and Peavy.

[logan82]

I think you are assuming a misused/overused pen. I think relievers can cover more innings than they currently do.

[Tbadder]

The whole idea that we have a "window of opportunity" scares me. I understand it, and it may be perfectly legitimate way of doing things in other sports, but I believe it will lead to disaster in Milwaukee. We've got to hold on to our very best prospects in order to create continuity from year to year. It's not good enough to play for one in every five/six years. As it stands I think the Brewers can be competitive until the great exodus (Fielder, Hardy) but with Escobar in the wings that leaves only the Brewers looking for a young first baseman, which they still may have time to develop or trade for. But trading for high priced veterans weakens the foundation of the organization. They have to look for young players who are blocked long term in other organizations who can be had for adequate major leaguers or 2nd tier prospects.

[jjfanec]

I think you are assuming a misused/overused pen. I think relievers can cover more innings than they currently do.

It seems to be well documented that when team starters struggle to go deep into games the bullpen suffers later in the year. Right now they are okay because we have been getting quality starts, but Soup, Looper and Parra have not gone deep into games numerous times this year and that would wear down the bullpen. Peavy is averaging a full inning better per outing than Soup, Looper and Parra, and that will hurt the bullpen later in the year. Right now we have three guys averaging 5.1 to 5.2 innings per start and two averaging in the 6 plus inning range. You throw in Peavy and give us three guys going deep into games it would seem our bullpen would be better in September than if it stays as is.

[TooLiveBrew]

Also, I think people are making a little too much about Peavy's road splits.

 

Yep, I have to 'fess up as one of these folks. I'm glad trwi pointed out that Peavy's road splits are heavily skewed by his first couple of seasons, and apologize for not doing my own due diligence.

 

I still do have concerns about taking on a contract the size of Peavy's, though. As has been pointed out, aside from the young guys that are going to get big pay raises, if Peavy goes down with any significant injury the contract would really stand in the way of the Brewers being able to bring in more pitching.

[southpaw121505]

I think you are assuming a misused/overused pen. I think relievers can cover more innings than they currently do.

I'd think a guy never going past 6 innings is one way to lead to an overused bullpen. I don't agree that it's safe to assume they can take on a heavier load and still be as effective. The more innings the pen has to soak up, the more the weaker guys have to be used.

[logan82]

The bullpen isn't stressed as it is now. It would be less stressed if we had Peavy. We are not putting more stress on the pen by keeping Parra. It seems that many are assuming that the pen is going to be overworked and wear out by the end of the year if things stay as they are now.

[trwi7]

While Padres GM Kevin Towers arranged a trade with the White Sox to get left-handed pitching prospects Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard, as well as two more pitchers (one NL official said he believed Lance Broadway was on the list and could have been the third piece)

Link

 

That's a pretty unimpressive package. We heard there were four pitchers, so Poreda, Richard, Broadway (if the NL official is right) and the only other pitcher in their top 10 prospects is John Ely. So Poreda, who some project as a reliever, Richard, who's probably a #5 starter, Broadway is more of a middle reliever and Ely a back of the rotation starter as well. That's not really that impressive of a package.

 

One top prospect and three middling prospects who are back of the rotation starters at best it seems.

[endaround]

Yep. The "MLB ready pitching" isn't that much above Green.

[trwi7]

Yep. The "MLB ready pitching" isn't that much above Green.

Or Wright or Dillard. Poreda was 63rd overall in Baseball America's rankings this year. We had Escobar at 19 (I think), Gamel at 34, Lawrie at 81 and Jeffress at 100 (although his value probably dropped based on this year.)

 

I don't really think it's going to take much to get him and if San Diego is as desperate as they sound to get rid of him we might be able to get him for Jeffress, Wright, Green or Dillard and some lower level but higher upside arm.

[TheCrew07]

I guess that depends on what you consider an impressive package to be?

 

A MLB pitcher and a projectable top prospect in AA (both lefties) is a nice haul by itself. I would think that the 4th pitcher would have been someone projectable in the bottom rungs of the minors someplace, a Naftali Feliz (though less of a name) type back when the Teixeira deal was made, typically the last guys in the deal are relatively low in the minors.

 

Some scouts think Jeffress is a reliever as well, I'm not sure how measuring the worst case scenario devalues the prospect, Jeffress is still our top pitching prospect.

 

I don't see how the Brewers have a comparable package, even with Parra... who's the next pitcher? Cody? Escobar will not be in the deal, how could the club afford both Peavy and Hardy? Make all the pieces fit...

 

I'm into sustained success, I'm not willing to part with Braddock, Odorizzi, or Scarpetta for any pitcher much less a hitter at this point in time, and I'm torn on Jeffress. I would much rather have someone with Parra's talent as the number #5 than be doomed to a continual string of Suppans and Loopers to fill out the rotation because we have no pitching depth in the organization.

 

All this talk reminds me of a crack addict.. we've gotten a little taste of the post season and now we're willing to sacrifice whatever it takes to experience it again. I'm still somewhat surprised that people are more concerned about bench spots than replacing our current starters when they are gone. I'm not talking about hoarding prospects and that slant really irritates me, this is about organizational depth. Some of our prospects are going to fail, there's no doubt. I do enjoy following the minors, but my ultimate goal is winning a WS. Do we win the WS by acquiring Peavy? Maybe? It's not as certain as some make it out to be, if it does then I'd take back everything I've said about the deal. I just don't think that's a realistic assumption to make.

 

It's not that Peavy is only X number of years older than Parra, it's that he's been a workhorse while Parra was rehabbing injuries in the minors, his arm has a ton of wear and tear on it while Parra is the equivalent of a 2nd year MLB pitcher about 23 years of age. Peavy is getting to the age where the body stops recovering as fast, and it's probable that he will have a significant injury, almost all pitchers will experience one over the course of their career. That's part of the deal with violent repetition of movements that are not ergonomically sound, and throwing an overhand pitch is about as far from ergonomic principles as one can get. That doesn't mean he'll get hurt in the next 4 years, but he will get hurt at some point, the older he gets, the more likely an injury occurs.

 

In the next 3 years we'll have holes at 3B, SS, 2B, 1B, CF, RF, and C. In the rotation Bush, Looper, and Suppan will be gone. We're pretty stacked relief wise and I don't stress over the bullpen anyway. One of those corner spots will be Gamel, he's not going anywhere, how do we replace the rest? Regardless of what we believe about the financial state of the Brewers, I think we can all agree that there's no way they are signing comparable talent on the free agent market to replace all their losses, nor can we afford to resign our own players, only the Yankees have the financial means to spend that much money.

 

So again I say, make all the pieces fit, both with positions and contracts... I'd be more amicable to these ideas if someone would lay it out for me in a way that makes sense in the short and long term because I'm unwilling to go back to a talent level of 2002-2003 when it's not necessary. I'm willing to be proven wrong, but I've just never been in "win now" mode because we're already winning and I've felt for some time that we'll see a more balanced lineup and better rotation ahead.

 

We're the smallest market in MLB but we support the team well enough it has the resources to compete, but we still have to keep one eye to the future because the team won't be able to weather a failure like Pavano, the Brewers simply cannot afford dead money.

 

Finally, as far as Sheets goes, his extension wasn't anywhere near the dollars that Peavy's extension is... they are 2 different animals. I'm fine with a #2 type pitcher who will make 10ish over the next 3 or 4 seasons, I'm just not sure why every conversation around here has to be about an ace type pitcher? There's much better value out there than Peavy...

[RyDogg66]

It is hard for me to reconcile some of the dislike for Jake Peavy, his ERA, his contract, splits, etc etc.

 

Didnt the Brewers offer CC Sabathia a 5 year 100 million dollar deal this offseason? Now I know perhaps some of you who object to Peavy also objected to Sabathia but many well respected posters on this site would not have minded that deal, so here me out.

 

If Sabathia had accepted the Brewers would be on the hook for:

 

Sabathia: 2009-$20million, 2010-$20million, 2011-$20million, 2012-$20million, 2013-$20million = $100 million

Peavy: 2009-$8million, 2010-$15million, 2011-$16million, 2012, $17million, 2013-$22million = $78 million

 

Age:

Sabathia born July 21, 1980

Peavy born May 31, 1981

 

Peavy is a year YOUNGER

 

Innings pitched:

Sabathia = 1,730

Peavy = 1,334

 

Cy Young Awards:

Sabathia - 1

Peavy - 1

 

Injury worries:

Sabathia: tons of innings and bad body or could be Bartolo Colon by the time deal is done

Peavy: supposed sloppy mechanics or could be Ben Sheets by the time the deal is done

 

Road ERAs:

Sabathia: 3.65

Peavy: 3.84

 

So as far as contract + inuury concerns go, if you liked Sabathia, you SHOULD like Peavy as well.

 

The big, big difference is that we have to trade players to get Peavy and we wouldnt have to get Sabathia. Ahh, BUT we would NOT have gotten two comp picks for Sabathia if we had resigned him so.....

 

Send the Padres:

 

Parra OR Jeffress, not both

Evan Anundsen

Angel Salome

Tim Dillard

 

Replace two of them this draft.

[nate82]

In the next 3 years we'll have holes at 3B, SS, 2B, 1B, CF, RF, and C. In the rotation Bush, Looper, and Suppan will be gone. We're pretty stacked relief wise and I don't stress over the bullpen anyway. One of those corner spots will be Gamel, he's not going anywhere, how do we replace the rest? Regardless of what we believe about the financial state of the Brewers, I think we can all agree that there's no way they are signing comparable talent on the free agent market to replace all their losses, nor can we afford to resign our own players, only the Yankees have the financial means to spend that much money.

In the next 3 years we'll have holes at 1B and RF. CF I am not worried about and 3B can be filled by a couple of players along with catcher. At SS it is going to depend on if the Brewers sign Hardy long term or not. If the Brewers don't it will be Escobar at SS. At 2B you have Lawrie, Green, and Dykstra all who could be studs at 2B or duds you never know really. At C you have Lucroy and Salome I am not worried about C really one of them will be the starting C in 3 years. At CF you have Cain and Schafer an OF of Cain Schafer and Braun while not the greatest OF will be as good as the OF we have now. You could even move Gamel to the OF if need be Green or Lawrie would be at 3B then though. The only position the Brewers will have to fill really is at 1B and that still could be filled by Gamel. In 3 years there are a lot of possibilities. Positional players I feel rather confident in the Brewers having enough to replace players lost in the next 3 years.

 

Starting pitching even if we give up Parra and some positional players for Peavy it still looks good. Braddock, Scarpetta, and Jeffress could be the Brewers future 3-5. If the Brewers have a rotation like this in 3 years Gallardo, Peavy, Braddock, Scarpetta, Jeffress would it be any better or worse than Gallardo, Parra, Braddock, Scarpetta, Jeffress? Assuming it would only be Parra and some positional players for Peavy would either of those three starting pitching rotation be bad?

 

There is a lot of different ways this could unfold. Peavy is the sexy name right now like Sabathia was last year. If Webb becomes available you would have to give up about the same maybe more to get him. Even Holladay would cost as much as Peavy will in talent. The others available for trade are the same pitchers the Brewers already have on the roster.

 

I believe the Brewers will make a move but it will be more like what the Cubs did last year to get Harden than what the Brewers did last year to get Sabathia. I believe the Brewers will get someone who has been either injured or in a down year and has another year or two left on their contract.

[trwi7]

I think the Brewers' offer was 5 years $100 million, but that's still $20 million a year.

 

But again, I don't think we should worry about finances at all. Attanasio and Melvin are much more privy to that info than any of us. Melvin wouldn't even be exploring this if there was no chance Attanasio could make it work in the budget.

 

Jeffress, Green, Anundsen and a lower level pitcher with upside is pretty comparable to the White Sox deal that was accepted.

[nate82]

Jeffress, Green, Anundsen and a lower level pitcher with upside is pretty comparable to the White Sox deal that was accepted.

I was thinking Jeffress, Green, Anundsen and Dykstra/Brewer. But in my dreams it was Hart, Jeffress, Annundsen, Dykstra and a player to be named later for Peavy and Giles. I'm not sure if that was a good dream or a nightmare.

[Weirdos19]

Not to put a scare into anybody, but if the Brewers don't trade for Peavy, where will he go? He is interested in staying in the NL.

 

How in the world can we afford Peavy to be traded somewhere in the NL other than Milwaukee? If we are truly interested in winning, there is no way we want the Cubs, Cards, Dodgers, Mets, or Phillies to trade for him. Those are the 5 teams standing in our way to a World Series and each has a reason to go after Peavy.

 

So, if Peavy is +3.5 wins for the Brewers, wouldn't he be the same replacing Marshall or Wellemeyer in their respective rotations? I don't think we can afford to give up that many wins to either of those teams.

[sargennm]

Cards absolutely will not make that move because of the financial cost, and I don't buy the Cubs as a legit threat. The Padres will not trade him to L.A. and if the Mets or Phillies want to trade for him, we're not going to beat their package/financial incentives for Peavy. This team cannot afford a Yankee-type "We can't let the other guys get him" kinda move.

[TheCrew07]

In the next 3 years we'll have holes at 1B and RF. CF I am not worried about and 3B can be filled by a couple of players along with catcher. At SS it is going to depend on if the Brewers sign Hardy long term or not. If the Brewers don't it will be Escobar at SS. At 2B you have Lawrie, Green, and Dykstra all who could be studs at 2B or duds you never know really. At C you have Lucroy and Salome I am not worried about C really one of them will be the starting C in 3 years. At CF you have Cain and Schafer an OF of Cain Schafer and Braun while not the greatest OF will be as good as the OF we have now. You could even move Gamel to the OF if need be Green or Lawrie would be at 3B then though. The only position the Brewers will have to fill really is at 1B and that still could be filled by Gamel. In 3 years there are a lot of possibilities. Positional players I feel rather confident in the Brewers having enough to replace players lost in the next 3 years.

I'm pretty sure you missed what I was saying, so let me say it a different, the positions I listed have expiring contracts or FA looming the next 3 years. Gamel is lock for a corner spot someplace, but is it 3B, LF, RF, or 1B? Braun will be the other corner outfielder so 1 OF spot is locked down. Every other position on the team is a potential hole in the next 3 seasons. I have no doubt that Salome/Lucroy, Cain, Escobar, Lawrie, and Green would be average or better players... but if you're an opposing GM, whom are you going to target? We have to give value to get value and Peavy will cost more than Sabathia did. I guess my whole problem with this idea stems from the fact that there really isn't a hole in the rotation right now, people would just like to upgrade it.

 

My point about the finances wasn't that they couldn't afford Peavy, the risk factor here has been beat into the ground, it's fairly obvious if people will have an open mind. The point is that we have to find a way to pay the other 24 players on the roster each year. I previously ran down all of the contracts and a conservative estimate of the arby raises, going into next season there's about 14 million out there on a 90 million payroll and I didn't include a C or CL in that estimation. Various people have posted that they'd like Hardy, or Fielder to be retained in FA... okay... how do you pay either of them 10 million per season, let alone both of them, with Peavy's contract? Half the payroll would be tied into 3 players.

 

As far as the Sabathia money goes, I still think that whole thing was a publicity move, they knew he wouldn't accept 5/100, it was a very shrewd move on the Brewer's part. In the unlikely event that he would have accepted the offer then Cameron, Looper, and Hoffman would not be on the roster... that's where Sabathia's 20 mil is. It's not like they had an extra 20 mil laying around on top of the current payroll to pay the man. I do think however that the Sabathia contract illustrates my point perfectly... would you rather have 1 great player or 3 average to good players for the same money? Is the combined WAR of the 3 greater than the WAR of the 1? I think in most cases it will be, the player has to be pretty special, some of those young pitchers I've argued for in the past have WARs over 5.0 but Peavy's WAR for 2008 was 45th overall and only 2.8, in 2007 it was 6.2, in 2006 it was 4.0. Sabathia was over 7 in '07 and '08, and over 5 in '06 so he would have been a better investment over that span than our 3 current players, Peavy not so much.

 

I don't like paying relievers in general because they pitch so few innings it's hard for them to be worth more than 2 wins... but lets take 2007 which was Peavy's best season out of the last 3. Hoffman was worth 1.3, Cameron 2.2, and Looper 1.2 for a total of 4.7 so in 2007 he was clearly worth more than the 3. In 2008 though Cameron, Looper, and Hoffman combined for a 6.3 which blows Peavy's season out of the water, and so far in 2009 the 3 Brewers have combined for 2.8 and that's with Looper's -.1, Peavy thus far has been worth 1.7, and Sabathia 1.9...

 

I realize Peavy won a CY just like Sabathia, but CC has been a better pitcher the last 3 years and it's not even close. You can trade out Parra for Peavy and get much more expensive for the rest of this season but next season what does the team do about CF and Looper's spot in the rotation? Swapping in Peavy for Parra and Looper puts the team right up against the 90 mil and they would still have a hole in the rotation, and no C or CL. If they keep Looper that pushes the payroll into the mid 90s, and I'm just not sure how far they can go. 2011 gets even more murky with players walking Fielder's last year of Arby and so on. We don't have a Yo in the system, a player I'm willing to say for sure will take a rotation spot in 2010 or 2011. We have some guys who I'm absolutely intrigued by, but they aren't on the same level as Yo was prospect wise. Could Cappy figure back into the mix? Who knows really?

 

All I really know for sure is that acquiring Peavy severely limits payroll flexibility going forward and I wasn't willing to do that for Sabathia, and he's been as good as it gets pitching wise the last 2 seasons. My only argument against Sabathia was % of payroll tied into 1 player, I've been a huge fan of his for years. Peavy comes with a better contract early, but he's not as dominant and instead of just the cost of his contract like Sabathia, now there's the added cost of talent we're giving up to SD in the deal as well. That's the huge kicker for me, we'd getting a slightly better contract, for a drop in performance, plus we're giving up talent... I don't think Peavy to Sabathia is a valid comparison at all. It doesn't really matter who the prospects are going to SD, Sabathia would have been much more valuable to the Brewers than Peavy would be, and by a wide margin. Prospects are not valueless, the value is just difficult to project at the time of the trade, as is their potential value to the Brewers had they stayed in the system.

 

As an FYI all WAR values are taken from Fangraphs, it was too much hyperlinking to link up all of the values, and I still need to cut some grass and catch the end of the Brewer game.

[trwi7]

We have to give value to get value and Peavy will cost more than Sabathia did.

I guess I just don't see this. Yeah, Sabathia was an impending free agent, but you were guaranteed to get two picks for him if he didn't sign. Peavy has a no trade clause that's very specific. There are only a couple of suitors that he would accept a trade to and that could use him. That severely limits his value and the Padres want him off the payroll.

 

I don't view the White Sox offer that was accepted better than the Sabathia haul.