Jake Peavy

[southpaw121505]

I think adding Peavy would absolutely add to the bottom line. Just because ticket sales are good doesnt mean they wont get even better just like last summer. To me, it's all about how much talent we'd have to give up. I'd rather keep Escobar and Parra but realize that would be tough. Having Escobar for cheap and almost ready would be valuable if we take on Peavy's contract.

[bobskube]

I don't mind losing Parra at all. In fact, right now I believe is the peak time to trade him. I think his upside is overrated, imo. Just my opinion. It seems that mentally that he is not all there and that is half the battle.

 

We fell in love with Hart and Hall too. Could have got a lot for them at one time. Now Hall cannot be given away and Hart's value slips every day he misses the low and away slider.

[TheCrew07]

I don't mind losing Parra at all. In fact, right now I believe is the peak time to trade him. I think his upside is overrated, imo. Just my opinion. It seems that mentally that he is not all there and that is half the battle.

 

We fell in love with Hart and Hall too. Could have got a lot for them at one time. Now Hall cannot be given away and Hart's value slips every day he misses the low and away slider.

While I was never on the Hall bandwagon, isn't it a little premature to rate Hart as a bust? He's pressing no doubt, but earlier in the season he was laying off that low and away pitch. I'm willing to ride out Hart this entire season and make a decision in the off season on Hart/Gamel/Green.

 

If Mart A is truly pushing for Peavy then we're in trouble as a franchise, we aren't going to be able to "go for it" every time we're in the playoff picture as we aren't able to afford our own quality FAs, let alone anyone else's, where are the players going to come from? We have a good thing going on the minor league side, I'd rather not mess that up over a couple of wins this season. There's a lesson to be learned from MN both ways... 1) They usually stand pat during the season and are competitive year after year... 2) Since they've never gone for it, they haven't had a great playoff run recently either. I don't have a problem taking a shot, but we'd better pick our spots, or we're creating more trouble down the road than it's worth.

 

Plenty of teams have made the world series without making an in season deal, it's not a prerequisite to success... it's not even June yet.

 

Patience.

[Invader3K]

Well, there's nothing to say Mark Attanasio is the one specifically pushing for a trade for Peavy (though he'd probably have to give his approval, I'd assume). Maybe bobskube or others would have more insight into that.

 

I would point out that none of us really know the Brewers' ultimate payroll flexibility or finances, either.

[shelmark]

I have no idea if we should make a play for Peavy, but I grow tired of the "fear" of losing prospects. There will always be prospects. I remember everyone panning the Cardinals minor league system for years, but they seem to be doing ok these days. Trades are fun, bring excitement and that is what its all about for me. If we make the deal I think we should throw Gerut back to them.

[SZBrewerFan]

Not to take this thread in a different direction and I am by no means questioning his credibility because I know he has scooped this site numerous times in the past, but what is bobskub's relationship to the Crew. Does he have a source inside the front office? If he (or anyone else for that matter) can't say I completely understand, I have just often wondered.

[trwi7]

Not to take this thread in a different direction and I am by no means questioning his credibility because I know he has scooped this site numerous times in the past, but what is bobskub's relationship to the Crew. Does he have a source inside the front office? If he (or anyone else for that matter) can't say I completely understand, I have just often wondered.

 

 

 

I was wondering the same thing, although I don't remember him scooping the site before. That's not a knock on him, I just don't normally remember that type of stuff no matter who it is. Although, if some say he has scooped the site before, I have no reason to doubt him.

[Invader3K]

bobskube has shown himself to be a reliable source on some other things in the past. I don't remember the specific instances, but I know there was some stuff this off season he hinted at that ended up happening. Not sure of his exact relationship with the Brewers.

[trwi7]

Also, I think people are making a little too much about Peavy's road splits. Lots of that is from his first two years in the league and as we're finding out with our own pitcher in his first couple years, it's an issue for a lot of young pitchers.

 

First 2 years on the road for Peavy:

 

156 IP, 5.13 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 3.98 BB/9, 7.44 K/9, 1.96 HR/9

 

Peavy's last 5+ years on the road:

 

458.1 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.02 BB/9, 8.64 K/9, .98 HR/9

 

I know you can't just get rid of those stats from his first two years, but when you look at his past five years, it really could just be that he was struggling on the road like a lot of young pitchers do. Add that to the fact that lots of pitchers have better home splits than road splits as well. But in the past five years he's lowered his walk rate, raised his strikeout rate and drastically lowered his HR rate.

[bobskube]

bobskube has shown himself to be a reliable source on some other things in the past. I don't remember the specific instances, but I know there was some stuff this off season he hinted at that ended up happening. Not sure of his exact relationship with the Brewers.

I am just a fan who is on the "know" on some things that are happening at times (but still pretty rarely) with the Brewer organization and certain players. The only thing I actually knew for sure in advance was the Looper signing earlier this year and last year that the Brewers were seriously pursuing Sabathia early in the game. Let's leave it at that.

 

I do know that the Peavy "rumors" have life and it is a possibilty because it is being talked about with the 3 possible sides-(Brewers, Padres, Axelrod.) Will it happen? My guess is that it is still doubtful at this point because of all the underlying factors involved but I know the Brewers are serious about exploring this option. I do also know the Padres want young and MLB ready pitching.

[Weirdos19]

Parra, Hart, and Escobar for Peavy, Giles, and Headley or Kousmanoff?

 

I like Headley as our switch hitting 3B of the future, with Gamel taking over in right next year. Gamel could immediately learn RF in AAA this year and be ready next year.

[RyDogg66]

I think Headly is still pretty highly regarded in San Diego is pre-arby so I dont see why they would move him. Giles is 38 and makes a ton of money and he has a sub .600 OPS this year, not sure I want him either, although if they took Hall (and his contract) and sent us both Giles and Kouzmanoff I would probably jump at it.

[paul253]

So far Gamel seems to be handling third base ok in Milwaukee. If he can stick there it would be such a huge bonus for the Brewers. I still wouldn't include Parra or Gallardo, but I'd more or less let SD pick two pitching prospects plus Escobar and another mid level guy like Irabarren or Gillespie. To me, it seems like offensively they are set for the next few years but pitching is a major concern. You'd be trading from a strength and improving a weakness. With Gallardo and Peavy, you basically have two #1's for the next three years, and you take some pressure off of Parra. If you can keep Bush for another few years, you have a very solid rotation while giving your system some time to hopefully develope some of these young arms like Scarpetta, Odorizzi, Braddock, Lintz, and Anundson.

[TheCrew]

Giles does have a big contract, but it's the final year so he would be off the books.

 

It all hinges on Peavy waiving his no trade clause.... I just don't see it happening unless the brewers guarantee the option year.

[Invader3K]

TheCrew may be right. And after reading the comments about Peavy in that Trevor Hoffman interview, I am not so sure he would waive his no trade clause to come here.

[RockCoCougars]

Get this done. It's time to get the Padres back for the Sheffield and Vaughn trades.

[Tbadder]

In the end I think trading for Peavy would be a mistake. Too much payroll, high risk, and the fact that the Brewers must be a prospect driven team. I am not a fan of Parra at all. I honestly don't see the potential others see, but I'm in love with Parra's contract. If we do trade for Peavy I'd make them take one bad Milwaukee contract, and since they won't this should be a big no go.

[logan82]

By my calculations each 0.25 points of ERA is worth 5.5 runs over 200 innings. Even if we assume Peavy would have an ERA one run bettter than Parra each year, that comes to 2 wins. I guess we have to ask, is Peavy a big enough upgrade over Parra to trade away Parra plus other top prospects. I think the answer over one year is yes. However, I think we are really going to need all of our top prospects to fill holes on the MLB team in the near future. I also think the extra cost of Peavy over Parra is to much to pay for 2 extra wins.

 

Edit: I think this is the right way to do it.

my calculation

200/9*0.25=5.555

[sbrylski]

The options are Peavy or Parra + $17 million dollars. Assuming your estimates are correct, and we'll say a two win player costs roughly $10 million per year, we are actually losing out in a Peavy for Parra deal straight up.

[Oldcity]

I don't understand why the Brewers don't target a pitcher without a gigantic contract? There will likely be number 2/3 type pitchers available that they could get for a similar package to a Peavy trade. Picture Peavy as a free agent this offseason. Wouldn't you be iffy on offering him $70 mil over four years? I know I would, and that's without giving up a bunch of good talent.

[TheCrew]

By my calculations each 0.25 points of ERA is worth 5.5 runs over 200 innings. Even if we assume Peavy would have an ERA one run bettter than Parra each year, that comes to 2 wins. I guess we have to ask, is Peavy a big enough upgrade over Parra to trade away Parra plus other top prospects. I think the answer over one year is yes. However, I think we are really going to need all of our top prospects to fill holes on the MLB team in the near future. I also think the extra cost of Peavy over Parra is to much to pay for 2 extra wins.

I think Peavy equals more than 2 wins than Parra - You've got to take into account that he'll throw more innings, lighten the workload on the bullpen in the process and over the past 3 seasons his ERA is about 1.25 runs better and almost a full 2 runs better this season. (and he's also gotten off to a slow start)

 

Peavy is only about 1 1/2 years older than Parra as well - so we'd have an elite young pitcher locked up. Yes, 4 years $70 million isn't cheap - but like I said he is young, hasn't shown signs of injury and also hasn't been overworked in SD.

 

If you can get away with Parra and keeping Gamel/Escobar, I think you have to make this deal.

[RyDogg66]

Considering that I do not expect Parra to win games when he starts, but I do expect Peavy to keep the team in it, I think the difference is bigger than two wins as well. I cant justify that though with complicated formulas so I defer to the experts. Parra is starting to look like JDLR.

[splitterpfj]

Stevo, I believe Derek Lowe and AJ Burnett both got better deals than 4/70 this past winter...I know I'd much rather have Peavy than either of them, based on age, health history, etc.

 

I wouldn't be upset if the Brewers signed Peavy to a 4-year deal for 70M next winter.

 

I don't know if the Brewers can get Peavy without giving up Gamel or Escobar, in fact I doubt it, but I do hope the team explores this possibility fully.

[Invader3K]

I guess I think a lot of people are under selling Peavy big time around here.

 

The guy is considered a legit #1 pitcher in MLB for a reason. It's not just all hype. Yes, he's been helped a bit by pitching at Petco and such, but the fact is he's a good pitcher who stays healthy and almost always gives his team a chance to win. The fact he hasn't been hurt doesn't mean that he's eventually going to b,e either. Funny we never saw that logic applied in reverse when Sheets was with the team...

 

Anyway, I still am not sure if I'm in favor of getting him or not. I understand the contract is a big concern, but no one here really knows Melvin's ultimate budget flexibility. I think I'd rather see the Brewers target someone like Cliff Lee (shorter contract, still quite good). But a Peavy/Gallardo combo at the top of the rotation is probably superior to any other combination the Brewers could possibly hope to field anytime soon. Parra is nowhere close to the quality of pitcher that Peavy is, and he won't be any time soon.

[Oldcity]

I don't know if I'd be upset by offering him 4/70 necessarily, but it wouldn't be a slam dunk in my eyes. The way it's backloaded makes it a huge risk. That 2013 amount of 22 million is a huge burden. He's had nagging injury issues creep up the last couple years, and his fastball is already down a couple ticks. He's already seen his best days. He's still young, but so was Ben Sheets when the Brewers re-signed him. If fans thought Sheets was overpaid (wasn't at all), they could end up despising Peavy. Sheets was good enough to still be worth 10 mil or more when he was injured for partial seasons, but at an average of 17 mil per season Peavy will need to stay healthy.