Jake Peavy

[logan82]

I think the injury concerns for Peavy have more to do with his heavy workload more than anything else. He has thrown a lot over the last few years.

 

Edit: It isn't his total innings so much as how often he goes over 110 pitches.

[trwi7]

Haudricourt has absolutely HATED all of the Peavy talk and shut it down whenever he has gotten a chance. And, in spite of popular opinion, Melvin is very honest with Haudricourt. I HIGHLY doubt Haudricourt just wrote that article based on the White Sox trade falling through.

 

That was my thought as well. In fact this was from his May 21st blog when the Peavy to White Sox thing came out.

 

Yipeeee! That means we can continue with the Peavy-Brewers rumors until he either is traded to Milwaukee or goes elsewhere. Or maybe even stays in San Diego!! Can't tell you how much I'm looking forward to the continuation of that never-ending rumor mill.

Then there was this from March 24th.

 

Phoenix - It appears the rumors are starting to spread that the Brewers have interest in trading for San Diego ace Jake Peavy, so I just gave general manager Doug Melvin a call to see what was what.

Melvin assured me that those rumors are false, that he has not inquired with the Padres about Peavy.

"We haven't talked to them," said Melvin. "There's nothing to it."

Melvin has always been a straight shooter with me, particularly with trade rumors, so that's good enough for me.

A couple of things to keep in mind. Peavy has some $60 million and four years remaining on his contract, and owner Mark Attanasio is on record as saying his budget already is stretched pretty thin.

Also, Peavy has a no-trade clause that includes Milwaukee. Now, such clauses can be bought out, but that includes the expenditure of even more money.

I think a lot of people saw Bill Hall's quote to ESPN's Peter Gammons that he could see the Brewers going after Peavy at some point, much like they acquired CC Sabathia at the midpoint of last season to make their playoff run. Well, that was Hall's opinion as expressed to Gammons. It was not a club official talking about any official pursuit.

I also saw the internet report out of San Diego's camp that said the Brewers "are now said" to be interested in Peavy. Said by whom? Can we identify this person or persons? Was that strictly a reaction to Hall's comments? C'mon, give me a little substance here, please.

You'll note in that report that Peavy's agent, Barry Axelrod, said he hadn't been asked about the Brewers. Because of the no-trade clause, the agent would have to get involved if a club banned by the clause wanted to take a shot at Peavy. But Axelrod hasn't heard anything because there's nothing to hear.

So, I think everybody can calm down on the Peavy front. The Brewers are much more concerned at this point about their bullpen. If they're going to trade for anybody, it'll be a reliever, in my opinion.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/41798942.html

 

I have to imagine someone, whether it be Melvin, Attanasio or someone else high in the organization gave the indication to Haudricourt that they planned on making a move for Peavy.

[crossface21]

I figure the article by TH is an indication that he has now heard something, or thinks there really is some legitimacy to the Brewers attempting to get Peavy. As was said, he's been pretty hard set that the Brewers wouldn't go for Peavy, and now he's totally reversing his stance so there might be something to it. I think now that it's been shown that Peavy really prefers to stay in the NL that cuts down on a lot of possibilities of who Peavy could have gone to since the AL is out. Now you're only talking about a couple of teams that really would make a move for him, and it brings down SD's bargaining power quite a bit.

[bobskube]

I think that if we add that contract in full...Hall must be shipped there too to offset things. Hall is just very bad and I don't want to see him anymore.

[nate82]

I wonder if the Brewers could do this trade Hart, Parra, Brewer, and Braddock with a player to be named later for Peavy and Giles. It might be time to give up on Hart and trade him before he becomes the next Hall. He might already be there though.

[bobskube]

I wonder if the Brewers could do this trade Hart, Parra, Brewer, and Braddock with a player to be named later for Peavy and Giles. It might be time to give up on Hart and trade him before he becomes the next Hall. He might already be there though.

Hart is not that bad. I do like your line of thinking though.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not sure if the payroll concerns are that legitimate. A lot of payroll will be coming off this year and next year. Right now the team only has about $45 million commited next season

Suppan 12.5

Fielder 10.5

Hall 8.4

Looper 6

Riske 4.5

Braun 1

 

That's 38.4 million

 

Arby Eligibile/Pre Arby players 2009 Salary

Hardy 4.65

Bush 4

Hart 3.25

Weeks 2.45

Gerut 1.775

McClung 1.66

Coffey .8

Villy .45

Parra .43

Rivera .42

Gallardo .414

Stetter .40

DiFelice .40

McGehee .40

 

I'm not including Julio's .95 because I doubt he's on the team next season, or later this season.

 

That's 22.18 which brings the grand total to 60.58 Million based on this year's salaries.

 

Hardy, Hart, Weeks, and Bush are going to see significant raises as they approach the back end of arbitration. Rivera should see a jump of some sort going into his first year. I believe Villy will be arby eligible for the first time. Coffey will see a pay increase, maybe double what he currently makes if he keeps performing. McClung will get also get another raise. Parra, Gallardo, DiFelice, McGehee, Gamel, and Stetter will all be cheap.

 

Hall isn't tradable, so I see him moving to super sub and taking Counsell's roster spot. That still leaves a hole at CL with no Hoffan and C without Kendell. Salome would cost .40 as would Dillard, Aguilar, or whomever if they don't resign Hoffman.

 

I'm guessing that Hardy, Bush, Hart, and Weeks will cost (these are guesses) an extra 12 mil, Rivera an extra .5, Villy 1.5, Coffey 1.5, and McClung 1 so I see the arby raises costing 16.5 total which would puts us at 76.68 without a proven closer or catcher. (note that I don't care about the closer or catcher, but I figure I'll be in the minority again in that regard)

 

If we figure a 90 million payroll is about the cap, that leaves them 13.32 million to play with, some of which I hope they'll use to lock up Yo early and get a nice team friendly deal along the lines of James Shiels' contract.

 

Peavy would make 15, 16, 17, and 22 mil (assuming the option is picked up as part of him waiving his no trade). The old rule of thumb I've heard teams go by is no more than 15% of the payroll to any one player. Peavy's percent of 90 million would be 16.6%, 17.7%., 18.8%, and 24.4%. The first 3 years are pretty borderline and probably doable, but that option year is the devil. If he gets hurt or starts to show his age that last year would be absolutely crippling to the franchise, and I don't see him as someone I'd be willing to risk a trade on.

 

Escobar isn't on the block, he wasn't for Sabathia and he won't be for Peavy because the team isn't going to resign Hardy. There's no way the team could acquire Peavy and resign Hardy without immediately dumping Fielder. I don't see Peavy costing anything less than Parra and 2 of our better prospects because we don't have the pitching, and if we did we wouldn't make a move for Peavy in the first place.

 

Many people in baseball believe that all things being equal pitching is greater than hitting, an Ace pitcher on his game is going to shutdown any offense in the league. I subscribe to that theory as well, which is why I'm always harping on pitching while many people are focusing their attention on the lineup. SD can win in that ball park if the pitching is good enough, they can look to the FA market to fill their hole at SS if they get the pitching they want, I think Peavy for pitching prospects is exactly what they should be looking do, it makes perfect sense. Signing bats makes a heck of a lot more sense for small and midmarket teams than FA pitching.

 

Finally, just because the team can afford to spend 90 million per year, doesn't mean they should. If there is good value out there absolutely, but to spend 90 mil just because it's possible doesn't make much sense to me. My greatest fear is that instead of making a bold move for some young pitching Melvin will do what's easy and keep signing Looper/Suppan quality FAs while we wait on the kids to pan out. If that's the route we go I think the team will be good, but never great, because the rotation will never be more than average and our top 3 will be in the bottom half of the other playoff teams.

[logan82]

Focusing on developing pitchers and hoping some turn out is good. Investing money in pitchers is very risky. They get hurt much more than position players do. If you are going to trade for pitching prospects, I would prefer to get a couple 2nd tier pitchers over a top tier guy. I would also prefer that extra players back in a deal be pitchers.

[kramnoj]

Looking at the 2010 payroll, Looper isn't really guaranteed to be part of the team. Not a big deal though, because we can guess the Brewers will be spending that much on a SP next year. Also, Braun could make $3.5M next year if he is in the Super 2 group after this year.

[Invader3K]

Finally, just because the team can afford to spend 90 million per year, doesn't mean they should. If there is good value out there absolutely, but to spend 90 mil just because it's possible doesn't make much sense to me. My greatest fear is that instead of making a bold move for some young pitching Melvin will do what's easy and keep signing Looper/Suppan quality FAs while we wait on the kids to pan out. If that's the route we go I think the team will be good, but never great, because the rotation will never be more than average and our top 3 will be in the bottom half of the other playoff teams.

 

I agree with this reasoning to a point...but doesn't that lead you to think we _should_ trade for a guy like Peavy? It would be nice to be paying a guy like that rather than paying a couple barely above replacement guys like Suppan and Looper basically the same amount (or even a little more).

[TheCrew07]

Nope it doesn't, because the risk is the large contract, with a minimum of 15 million dollars wasted in any particular year if he gets hurt the risk in his contract is substantial. I don't recall him having a major injury yet, so sooner or later the big one is going to strike, and I'm not willing to hedge my bets with Peavy.

 

The idea should be to acquire Peavy type players before they are established, rather than overpay them on the back end of their careers. This is why i was huge on a Fielder for Shields swap last season, I was down with the Fielder for Santana/Kotchman idea that was posted last year , I was into Marcum and McGowan before they got hurt, I liked Morrow before his move to the bullpen, and I thought the Garza for Young and Volquez for Hamilton deals were exactly the type of moves we should be looking to make.

 

It's much easier to find an average to above average bat to plug into a hole than it is to acquire front line pitching.

 

Again I don't see the value in overpaying for pitching in salary or prospects. Which reminds me, did anyone else find Melvin's comments off the mark? They've drafted a bunch of starters early that didn't pan out and only 2 that have in Sheets and Gallardo... while there is still hope for Jones, Jeffress, Ordorizzi, Lintz, Frederickson, Adams, and Rogers the list of recent (may still be with the team) high pitching draft picks that got injured is uninspiring... Jones, Rogers, Neugy, and Gold. Wilhemsen had personal issues, Artman never pitched above Beliot, and Inman got traded. Also, it seemed odd that he'd only focus on the top of the drafts whenthey've done a good job finding significant value in the later rounds pitching wise. Parra was a DFE, Eveland 16th, Hendrickson 10th, Scarpetta 11th, and Garrison 10th. He also ignored the loft bonuses the team threw at international free agents as well like Rolando Pascual that haven't amounted to anything. I guess my point is that they've gone after plenty of pitchers, they just haven't had much success with the high profile moves.

 

Even so if Rogers and Jones stay healthy, the rotation would be petty lights out right now.

 

They've also missed badly with some bats at the top, Gwynn never became a starter, Murray is out of baseball I believe, Krynzel never made an impact, Palmisano flamed out quickly, and Fermaint never made AA (wow other than Weeks the top of 2003 really stunk). The good news here was that they did a better job judging the bats, the 2004 draft looks particularly strong with Braun, Gamel, and Salome all in that draft class. Throughout the years they got Hart in the 10th, Brantley in the 7th, Hardy in the 2nd, and hit with Fielder, Weeks, Braun, LaPorta, and Lawrie (I know it's too soon but I like the kid) at the top.

 

They've just done a much better job evaluating hitters than the pitchers, they taken plenty of arms in the first 10 rounds, only a couple have made it.

[Tbadder]

Not a facetious question Crew07. Given your evaluation should the Brewers concentrate on bats early and draft upside or special circumstances pitching later? Is there such a thing as a long term organizational blind spot when it comes to pitching, and a long term organizational expertise when it comes to hitters?

[TheCrew07]

Best Player Available... but in general drafting at the bottom it's hard to find can't miss talent so we'll continue to see a heavy dose of HS talent I'm sure. Z and Seid both focus on impact players, they want all-stars, so I'm sure we'll continue to see quite a few toolsy high risk/reward type players.

 

I don't mind the having all the position talent around, I'd just rather Melvin was more aggressive flipping unproven bats for unproven pitching. I'd rather make deals for a Garza or Volquez than for a Sabathia or Peavy. I guess in a perfect world I would like them to get as good at drafting pitching as they are at evaluating hitting, but I'm not sure how realistic that is without changing personnel in the scouting dept.

[endaround]

You mean like a Jorge DeLaRosa or Zach Jackson?

[TheCrew07]

Both those players were part of much larger deals. JLDR always had great stuff and couldn't harness it, but honestly if Melvin trades with Atlanta or Arizona again for prospect pitching we're in trouble, because those guys get jettisoned for a reason... and in hindsight we should have known better about Zach Jackson. I think if that move (Overbay) happened now many of us would question it, at least on the minor league side. I'm not sure what we expected to get quality wise for Overbay who's an averagish 1B, but getting a solid backup in Gross and a good #3 in Bush out of that deal was pretty good though.

 

I said what I meant, I'd rather he target top of the rotation starters who are top prospects from teams that have a solid MLB rotation already or are dumb enough to trade them. I'd rather not be Texas, trading away young pitching for hitting when they already had a good offense and then signing aging FA SPs on the decline to anchor the rotation.

 

Texas was dumb enough to move Volquez, maybe they will move Feliz as well, I've been coveting him since the Teixeira trade. I'd trade them Fielder for Feliz in a heartbeat, but I don't expect anyone else to be down with that move.

[Invader3K]

It seems like those types of moves would be fairly lateral (giving up offense for some pitching improvement) and not really keep us in position to contend this season.

 

I think the Brewers basically have this season and next season to realistically make the playoffs again. 2011 will probably be a rebuilding period, with Hardy, Fielder, and others likely gone by then. The window is closing fast. I'd hate to see them sacrifice the short term right now just to creaet another window of opportunity much further down the road at this point.

[yoshii8]

On Steve "The Homer" True's radio show yesterday, Tom Haurdricort said he thinks there is a 50/50 chance that Peavy ends up w/ the Brewers this season.

[Invader3K]

That's interesting, and must mean there's something tangible going on. Especially considering how adamant Haudricourt was earlier this year that Peavy was absolutely not coming to Milwaukee.

 

A few more shaky starts from the Brewers' pitching might motivate Melvin to get aggressive on something. But with how well San Diego is playing right now, they probably aren't inclined to be sellers at the moment.

[brewerfan82]

Similarly, Ben Nicholson-Smith at MLBTradeRumors.com responded with his best guess for Peavy's destination in yesterday's live chat:

 

[Comment From Mark]

In the end, your best guess....Who gets Peavy?

 

[ben]

Brewers, but Towers has a tough job ahead. No-trade clauses don't make his job any easier!

[trwi7]

Yeah, I have to think something is up with Peavy. Although in the article he wrote for the Sunday paper he said that the Brewers want to wait and see if this team can actually compete for a playoff spot before they make a move for Peavy. I couldn't disagree with that more. We know this team is good, Melvin and company should know this team is good, so if you want him, start making offers and exchanging names now.

[southpaw121505]

I'm getting that vibe that something may be up as well. It makes some sense timing wise too. We just got proof that SD wants to and is willing to move him, and that he would prefer to stay in the NL. We also have some idea what it might take to get him now.

 

Mark A. strikes me as a guy that really enjoys when the Brewers are in the limelight and I could really see him stretching or exceeding his budget for a special type of player. I am somewhat scared to see what we'd be giving up considering it would be back to back years trading prospects for studs when we're getting closer and closer to needing those prospects.

[Hate those Rodents]

Trwi7 - I read that more as Melvin wanting to see if this team can make the playoffs without help (and without having to give up valuable commodities). He knows we're a good team. He doesn't know if we need Peavy to get into the playoffs or if the team as it is now (with maybe another minor upgrade somewhere) can get to the playoffs.

[TooLiveBrew]

That's interesting, and must mean there's something tangible going on. Especially considering how adamant Haudricourt was earlier this year that Peavy was absolutely not coming to Milwaukee.

 

That was my first thought upon seeing that too, Invader. The only thing I really worry about with Peavy is that contract after 2009:

 

2010: $15M

2011: $16M

2012: $17M

2013: $22M club option ($4M buyout)

 

In addition, here's how Cot's breaks down the no-trade clause in Peavy's contract --

 

full no-trade clause for 2010, may block trades to 14 clubs in 2011 and 8 clubs in 2012 (also earns 10-and-5 rights in 2012)

 

 

While I think he's a very good pitcher, PetCo has really enhanced his overall stats, and imho there's a lot of risk in that contract for a team like the Brewers. We have a lot of talented players that are going to get very expensive over the course of Peavy's deal.

[logan82]

I really don't want Peavy if it is going to cost us any of the following

Gallardo

Parra

Bush

Fielder

Braun

Hardy

Weeks(I know he can't be traded while on DL)

Cameron

Gamel

any of our top 10 prospects

 

They guy will be expensive and if we have to give up pitching, I don' think he is much of an upgrade over Gallardo or Parra long term and trading Bush to get him would probably require one of our top prospects. We need most of our top prospects over the next 2-3 years to plug holes from other players leaving. Trading one of our MLB players leaves a hole right now. Hart I am 50/50 on including in a trade.

[zzzmanwitz]

Jake Peavy should not be a Brewer.

 

Career Stats:

Home: 2.79 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .63 HR/9

Road: 3.82 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 1.24 HR/9

 

2008:

Home: 1.74 ERA, .97 WHIP, .37 HR/9

Road: 4.28 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 1.55 HR/9

 

2009:

Home: 2.98 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, .85 HR/9

Road: 4.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 1.08 HR/9\

 

He is not worth the money or the prospects we would give up to get him.