Jake Peavy

[endaround]

Greene has a career OBP of .304. At SS at $6.5 m he has negative value which is why the Padres are forcing him onto the Peavy deal. Having Greene and Escobar on the same team would be like having two Bill Halls without the power.

[Hammer]

That's good to know. I didn't look up his stats before I posted that...my bad.

[endaround]

The Padres trading Peavy is pretty much a sign that they don't think they can compete as currently constructed for at least the next two seasons. That means that they won't want any arby eligible players back since it defeats the purpose of cutting salary. That really just leaves 3 Brewers on the roster that might interest the Padres, Braun, Gallardo, and Parra (ok 4 with Stetter but he wouldn't be a main part). Braun and Gallardo aren't going, so that leaves Parra.

 

So if we are looking at a two team deal something like Peavy and Greene for:

2 of Escobar/Gamel/Salome, Jeffress, one of say LuCroy/Greene and TGJ.

 

Including Parra something like:

Parra, one of Escobar/Gamel/Salome, Jeffress and TGJ.

[fondybrewfan]

To The Cardinals:

 

Khalil Green

Will Venable

 

To the Brewers:

 

Jake Peavy

Heath Bell

 

To the Padres:

 

Corey Hart

Angel Salome

Tony Gwynn Jr

Todd Wellemeyer

Joe Mather

 

 

The Brewers would obviously have to sign/trade for a right fielder. I think the Cards are probably giving up to much, but the Padres and Brewers would be getting good deals IMO

[nate82]

So if we are looking at a two team deal something like Peavy and Greene for:

2 of Escobar/Gamel/Salome, Jeffress, one of say LuCroy/Greene and TGJ.

 

Including Parra something like:

Parra, one of Escobar/Gamel/Salome, Jeffress and TGJ.

I don't see the Brewers trading away both Jeffress and Parra in a deal. Unless that was suppose to be one of Escobar/Game/Salome/Jeffress and TGJ.

 

I would think the Brewers would have to give up a little bit more than 3 players to get Peavy. I would think it would be more along the lines of Parra, Cain, Lucroy, and TGJ for Peavy. If Greene would have to be in the deal I guess you could add Hardy to the list but I would want Kouzmanoff in the deal.

 

I'm dreaming here but what about a deal that sends Hardy, Parra, Lucroy, Hart/Cain and TGJ for Greene, Peavy, and Kouzmanoff. Greene replaces Hardy for 2009 and only 2009 Escobar takes over in 2010. We get a 3B that is desperately needed and we get an Ace pitcher who will be locked up fairly cheaply for the next 4 years. Yes I know this will never happen.

[endaround]

Why would you want Kouzmanoff? And why would the Padres want Hardy when they are cutting salary?

 

I don't see the Padres trading Peavy without getting pitching back. And that means I see very little way a trade happens that doesn't include Jeffress.

[nate82]

Why would you want Kouzmanoff? And why would the Padres want Hardy when they are cutting salary?

 

I don't see the Padres trading Peavy without getting pitching back. And that means I see very little way a trade happens that doesn't include Jeffress.

Why not Kouzmanoff? He is a good defensive 3B and he also hits righties as good as he hits lefties and he is cheap compared to other 3B options the Brewers could pursue. I believe he will get arbitration this year. I don't see why you wouldn't want to have Kouzmanoff as the starting 3B.

 

I don't see why you would package both Parra and Jeffress into a deal that is giving up to much. Maybe a Parra and Braddock but that is giving up two lefties and I don't see why you would do that. I wouldn't trade both Parra and Jeffress it will be either one or the other just like the CC trade it was either Gamel or LaPorta not both. I don't see why the Brewers would trade both Parra and Jeffress for Peavy. Even with the contract I just don't see why you would or why you should trade both.

 

Considering the trading partners from the AL being Yankees, Red Sox, and some other teams and in the NL it will be limited to the teams with the talent. I don't see this being a Santana deal where the Padres get hosed on where they can ship Peavy to. The Cubs don't have the prospects to make a move, the Yankees and Red Sox will not be willing to move the prospects they have. That leaves a select few teams that have the prospects the Padres will be looking for.

 

What we know the Padres are looking for is a SS and a pitcher in return. Those two are obvious with them dealing Peavy. The sticking point for most teams is going to be Greene if he is going to be packaged with Peavy.

[endaround]

I'd actually say Kouzmanoff hits righties as poor as he hits lefties. Yes at age 27 he might finally break out but his defense isn't good enough to support playing a career .311 OBP guy at 3B, especially when a Branyan/Lamb/Hall platoon is so much better offensively.

[yoshii8]

I'd like to acquire Kouzmanoff also, his road OPS is .818 w/ a .330 OBP, so I think his numbers would improve if he got out of Petco. I think w/ a switch to Miller Park he could potentially hit 30+ home runs. It would be nice to have some consistency from the 3b spot.

[RockCoCougars]

How about Parra, Escobar (or Weeks) and Gwynn for Peavy? I want no part of Greene though.

[ELCABALLO45]

Buster talks about Jake here, and he mentions the Brewers.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3647795

[nate82]

Some of the other NL teams that might be a fit for Peavy include the Cardinals, who face an uncertain situation with Chris Carpenter, or the Astros, or the Brewers, who stand to lose both CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets to free agency.

 

One thing I don't agree with in this article is the Astros being a team that could get Peavy. I don't believe the Astros have the prospects to land Peavy. The Cardinals have Rasmus but after that I'm not sure who they could offer. The Brewers once again have the usual suspects Gamel, Jeffress, and Escobar.

 

But with the way it sounds or what Towers is making it sound like the way the Padres are going it seems they are looking for players who will be MLB ready by 2010 or 2011 with 2012 being the latest. That means Hardy is probably out of the question or maybe not. Hardy might be a player that the Padres build around with a young pitcher like Braddock. I wonder if the Padres will also trade Young at the trade deadline if this is the case.

 

Peavy is one of the pitchers that I would straight up trade Hardy/Escobar for. I'm not so sure Escobar alone is worth Peavy but Hardy is darn close to the value that Peavy is at.

[danzig6767]

Very smart by the Padres to make Peavy available right now. They aren't competing with free agency and nearly every team in baseball could use a number one starter that is already locked up under a reasonable contract. There is going to be multiple teams looking to acquire Peavy that also have very appealing pieces, thus the Padres have the needed competition to drive up the asking price. Whoever ends up getting Peavy i going to pay a very heavy price in return.

 

I'd love to get Peavy, but have a strong feeling that what we'd really have to offer to get it done will be more than i'm comfortable with.

[Hammer]

This could be the ultimate time for a 3 team trade involving Peavy, Prince Fielder and a bunch of prospects from an AL team.

[sbrylski]

This could be the ultimate time for a 3 team trade involving Peavy, Prince Fielder and a bunch of prospects from an AL team.

 

Yeah, I don't see us parting with a Parra+Jeffress+Cain package for him, which would cover the Padre's targets of two young starters and a center fielder according to the article.

[Oldcity]

I imagine San Diego would have more interest in players like Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar and Jeremy Jeffress than Hardy or Fielder.

[colbyjack]

Think along the lines of the Dan Haren deal that is what it would take to get Peavy.

 

The Padres tanked pretty hard, and while the NL West is an incredibly fluid division, it's not surprising that the Padres are following the A's lead with Haren to get the most while they can for Peavy, who while signed to a relatively solid deal, is still making a good chunk of change through at least 2012, and possibly 2013.

 

That said, as others have already noted, he's 27 years old, has a Cy Young award under his belt, and is a legitimate staff ace. If the Brewers gave the package they did for 3-4 months of Sabathia, I don't understand the resistance for trading a similar package, even if it is slightly better, to acquire Peavy.

 

I really like X ellence's idea of trading Fielder to the Rays for pitching prospects (to the Padres) to land Peavy, although you have to believe the Padres would be looking at either Hardy or Escobar in any proposed deal with the Brewers. While the Padres have added a ton of talent into their system the past year between the draft and the international free agent market, they have a severe need for a SS.

[clancyphile]

I would defiinitely give up Escobar, Gamel & a Welch-type for Peavy in a heartbeat. We suddenly have a pretty good team next year, although the future gets a little dicey.

I would make that deal in an instant.

 

Trading Escobar means the Brewers commit over the next five years to Hardy and Weeks at short and second, with Callix Crabbe taking over Counsell's role as backup. Deal Gamel, and third base becomes Taylor Green's in 2010. Welch? Quite frankly, Brae Wright had a better year in 2008, and in Brevard County, Chris Cody delivered better pwnage of FSL hitters than a couple of guys named Carlos (Villanueva) and Tim (Dillard) did in 2005. So, dealing the third-best left-handed starter in the system is worth doing, IMO.

[patrickgpe]

i think there is no way the brewers inquire and they don't ask for yo or manny back. Also the story mentions wanting a CF back. I think the trade would look like yo or manny, cain, and maybe a jeffress. That is quite a steep price, but 4 years of peavy may be worth it.

[yoshii8]

Would it be possible that the deal could be centered around Jeffress, he has to be considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball after this season? Maybe a Jeffress, Braddock/Periard, and hopefully Gwynn instead of Cain deal? That probably wouldn't be enough they would probably have to throw in another top 15 prospect.

[JJHardy7]

If only the Padres were an AL team, this would be almost ideal to trade Fielder. Since they probably don't want Fielder and 3-team trades are little on the rare side, I'd have to imagine they'll want quite a haul back. If it's Hardy or Escobar as the center piece, I'd do it. I just think it'll take more than I'm willing to give up. I know I've been against trading JJ this off-season, but if trading JJ, insert one of the catching prospects here, and Jeffress does the trick I'd be very tempted. Jeffress could be quite the talent down the road, but the Brewers will know what they have in Peavy and Escobar has a very bright future. IMO it really then boils down to the catching prospect or other pieces that the Brewers would haev to give up since Escobar vs. Hardy will be fairly even in a few years and Peavey > Jeffress at least for the next few years if not longer.

[ELCABALLO45]

Its going to take alot to get Peavy. Its going to take more than what it took to get Haren. Especially considering he is 27 and has 3 or 4 years left on his deal.

 

In case anyone is scared off thinking he pitched only well in Petco.

 

2007

 

Home: 2.51

Away: 2.57

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd actually say Kouzmanoff hits righties as poor as he hits lefties. Yes at age 27 he might finally break out but his defense isn't good enough to support playing a career .311 OBP guy at 3B, especially when a Branyan/Lamb/Hall platoon is so much better offensively.

I think your dismissing Kouzmanoff prematurely. As has been pointed out his career road splits: .282/.330/.488, are very solid and he's a guy who in 2006 put up incredible minor league numbers (1.109 OPS in 244 AA abs and 1.056 in 102 AAA abs). He's likely to break out at some point and have some big years if he gets away from Petco. I think he could easily hit .280/.340/.520, with 30 HR and 95-100 RBI in Miller Park. Hall/Lamb or Hall/Branyan might come close to those numbers if they have good years and stay healthy but the team would be stronger with those guys coming off the bench.

 

As for Kouzmanoff's defense, 11 errors in 154 games? That's pretty impressive.

[Ennder]

Kouz came in at 4.3 runs below average defensively using this system.

 

http://spreadsheets.googl...WuYpfdux2FC_hs6ROEQ&gid=1

 

I don't like basing defense on just one system though so would have to see what a couple more systems have to say before judging the numbers. I know that he is thought of as a work in progress at 3B from a scouting standpoint but that isn't always accurate either.

[RyDogg66]

Id consider something like Parra, EITHER hardy or Hart and a top prospect Salome, or, if they take Hart, Escobar.