Jake Peavy

[jjfanec]

New: Bradley Old: Edmonds Bradley will play RF, not CF and he's not a bad defensive OF when healthy. Edmonds hit a lot of HR for Cubs last year in large part because his power was to the shortest part of Wrigley, the well in LF. Bradley is by far the better overall hitter.

 

New Miles Old: DeRosa. DeRosa is a fine hitter, and his versatility will be missed, but Miles and Mike Fontenot both hit over .300 last year and are better defensively at 2B.

 

New: Gregg Old: Wood Gregg is at least as accomplished a reliever as Wood without the injury risk.

 

Harden was "hurt" when he posted a 1.77 ERA for Cubs last year. Last year at this time, Rich Hill was in their rotation.

Bradley may be a better hitter than Edmonds but the argument is that to make the team better than last year he has to put up better numbers than Edmonds did last year. Edmonds had an OPS of .937 which is great. Bradley has been better than that past two years, but never before that. I am guess he is a slight improvemnt there.

Again Gregg may be more accomplished than Wood but he actually needs to be as valuable as Marmol was for that to be a step up. Marmol becomes the closer and could be a little more successful than Wood but Wood was good last year. Gregg cannot give the flexibility that Marmol did.

DeRosa is far superior to Miles unless you look just at BA. Fontenot is a nice player and if he does what he did last year than they are fine here, but do you get the 2007 version or 2008 version.

And nobody is talking about Gaithright because he is awful

 

These moves in terms of production compared to last year are lateral at best but most are drop offs. I look at by thinking how would I feel if I were a Cubs fan. The only move I would like is getting Bradley, but to get him I had to get rid of a guy who was one of our top 3 bats last year in DeRosa and a productive 5th man in Marquis (although getting rid of that contract is nice). I would not like moving Marmol out a role he was great in and replacing Wood with Gregg especially at the cost of prospects. I would be nervous as heck about Harden's shoulder and the fact that he is not pitching yet. I would not like the idea of Olson or Guzman being our number 5 guy if Harden is out for an extended amount of time.

[Big]

If you look at the numbers the cubs record of 97 wins last year is an underperformance given their runs scored/runs allowed and to say that it banked on players having career years offensively is not exactly, players like Lee and Soriano underperformed a bit and the only player with a real track record that had a career year was DeRosa, and there is certainly no evidence that Soto's performance is inflated (in limited abs he hit 389 is 07). This aside, jjfanec is right on the money with his evaluation the moves are definitely lateral at best, and I think most cubs fans would agree with him. The DeRosa deal is mind boggling because replacing him with miles only trims 3M, though no one is exactly sure what the Cubs have to spend atm. Anyway, There are a couple articles to read: the bleacherreport says a new cubs owner is imminent (middle of next week) and people have speculated that cubs management would like the thumbs up from the new cubs ownership before they ok the acquisition, but Hendry is obviously optimistic on this front if his moves are indeed a precursor to a deal. The other article comes out of San Diego and has some interesting stuff in it but it ends up reiterating that Peavy's 11m is an obstacle to the padres target payroll of 40m. Towers is tight-lipped right now. These circumstances give the media and cubs fans a lot of optimism for a deal. that being said, it's all just speculation. And Hendry's not really saying anything beyond that he wants to add another pitcher.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/mlb

 

http://www3.signonsandieg...adres-peavy-deal-elusive/

[TooLiveBrew]

New: Gregg Old: Wood Gregg is at least as accomplished a reliever as Wood without the injury risk.

 

I'm sorry, this just isn't close to true.

 

 

f Bradley goes down, look for Hoffpauir not to miss a beat offensively. Ward on the other hand was stricly a PH in recent years.

 

Hoffpauir is nowhere near Bradley's talent level, and losing Ward is a big loss to their offensive depth. All it took for Hoffpauir to post that line in 2008 was a .489 BABIP!!

 

 

Fontenot earned more PT by hitting .305/.395/.514 in 243 AB's. Both Miles and Fontenot are better defensively than DeRosa. Fontenot had .996 FP and Miles had a .988 FP. DeRosa made double the errors (8) than Miles and Fontenot combined.

 

Fontenot had a BABIP of .355. There's a razor-thin chance he approaches his 2008 production in 2009.

 

Also, the fact that you still cite FLG% & E as your defensive measuring sticks is probably the single biggest thing that boggles my mind on this board. DeRosa is quite solid with the leather. Chone's projections have him as basically average at 1B/2B/3B. His offensive value over Fontenot & Miles more than makes up for the average defense. Oh, and not sure where 'Miles is a good defender' comes from. Chone has him at -5 at 2B, -5 at 3B, & -11 at SS. That's awful. Fontenot is basically identical to DeRosa at 2B at a +1 (DeRosa is a 0).

[sheetswannabe]

This isnt a Cubs thread, this is a Peavy thread.

[RyDogg66]

Well, Peavy isnt coming here and the thread has trended toward Peavy heading to the Cubs and the potential impact it would have, which then lead to the other Cubs moves and their impact. Typically on this forum when people make wild unsubstantiated statements, they get taken apart by others who use real life numbers to back up their stances. That is what is currently going on now. When people are comparing Micah Hoffpauir, Aaron Miles and Kevin Gregg favorably to Mark DeRosa, Milton Bradley and Kerry Wood, the facts need to sorted out.

 

If there is new news about Peavy I am sure it will not be lost in here.

[Invader3K]

I still don't think he'll be traded at this point...I think the Padres will hold onto him and maybe trade him before the trade deadline. They might actually be able to get a better haul at that point for him.

[Roderick]

I still don't think he'll be traded at this point...I think the Padres will hold onto him and maybe trade him before the trade deadline. They might actually be able to get a better haul at that point for him.

Would the Padres risk waiting on a trade of Peavy in case he gets injured at the WBC?

http://www3.signonsandieg...illion-over-budge/?padres

 

It's anyone's guess whether Peavy will get hurt, but an arm ailment could make it nearly impossible to move his $63 million contract, which the Padres have shopped since October. Entering 2008, Peavy was healthy enough that the Padres guaranteed him a $52 million extension. At that time, a clean MRI exam led to an insurance policy for Peavy without exemptions for any body part.

But by last May 20, Peavy's right elbow and upper forearm were swollen, leading to a month on the disabled list.

The Padres owe nearly $1 million for Peavy's insurance premium this year.

 

 

[monty57]

It's hard to know what Towers is thinking or what he is forced by payroll to do, but I would bet that come trade deadline, some team in the playoff hunt would be willing to part with more than #6 starters and mid-tier prospects in a trade for Peavy. Due to the situation, San Diego may be forced to trade Peavy now, in which case they will lose big time. If they have any chance to hold off, they should be able to get better offers than they are currently receiving for a player of Peavy's stature.

[Weirdos19]

My questions are:

1. How does Dempster's arm react from 200 innings?

2. How long before Zambrano and Bradley get into it?

3. Who does play third when Ramirez is hurt?

4. How does Marmol pitch after getting abused last year?

5. What do the Cubs do when their CF trio is combining to hit .240 in the middle of June? Play Soriano or Bradley in center?

Those questions are silly. They could apply to any team.

 

1. How does Yovanni Gallardo hold up after only 134 MLB IP the last 2 years?

2. How long before Mannay Parra and Prince Fielder get into it again?

3. Who plays SS when JJ hardy gets hurt?

4. How does Trevor Hoffman pitch at the end of his career?

5. What do the Brewers do when the 3B duo is hitting .240 in the middle of June?

5a. What do the Brewers do when the 2B duo is hitting .240 in the middle of June?

 

BTW, in answer to your questions...

 

1. There is no reason to necessarily expect Dempster can't handle the load again.

2. Who cares?

3. I assume Aarobn Miles could handle 3B for a couple weeks.

4. Legitimate question, but again, no reason to think he won't handle it just fine. The guy has pitched plenty of innings in both minors and majors.

5. Maybe nothing. If they are catching the ball, they have plenty of offense everywhere else that it might not matter much.

Here's where we disagree Naivin. Questions like this do face every team, every year. Last year, the questions asked of the Cubs were all positive answers. Everything fell the right way for them. Wood, Marmol, DeRosa, Edmonds, Soto, Theriot, and Dempster were question marks going into the year, the only disappointment was Fukudome. To say that all question marks will be answered positively 2 years in a row is laughable. Every team has it's pitfalls, the Cubs had none last year.

 

I am not saying that the Brewers don't have question marks either. The difference with the Brewers is that they aren't expected to win 100 games this year. My answers to the questions are as follows.

 

1. Yo can replace Sheets this year. He can pitch 180 innings this year. Another starter would be nice.

2. So what? The Brewers didn't sign a clubhouse cancer that has been on 8 teams in 9 years to a 3 year deal.

3. Hardy was very healthy last year.

4. Hoffman is a step up from Torres, hands down.

5b. As long as the OBP is still .340, it's acceptable.

5a. Praying for a Wigginton signing.

[Invader3K]

I still don't think he'll be traded at this point...I think the Padres will hold onto him and maybe trade him before the trade deadline. They might actually be able to get a better haul at that point for him.

Would the Padres risk waiting on a trade of Peavy in case he gets injured at the WBC?

http://www3.signonsandieg...illion-over-budge/?padres

He could just as easily get hurt in spring training, so I doubt that will really factor into their decision, personally.

[strawbossisevil]

Ok, I thought I would jump in on the Cub topic.

 

Let's compare who the Cubs have in '09, vs who they had in '08.

 

2008 - C Giovani Soto 2009 - Giovani Soto - His BABIP was .337 last season. Thus many of the predictions have him regressing slightly or holding steady. I mark this as a push for the Cubs in ´09.

 

2008 - 1B Derrek Lee 2009 - 1B Derrek Lee - Someone already mentioned that Lee was effected by luck in 2008. Unfortunately, they were wrong on what kind of luck. Lee also put up a higher than expected BABIP, post a BABIP of .333. He has maintained a pretty high BABIP throughout his career, but this was higher than average for him. He's also seen a drop in his BB% over the past few seasons, and since his wrist injury has seen his SLG% struggle to return to former levels. I think an OPS in the low .800s is probably all that can be expected from him at this point, which is what he put up last year even with the somewhat lucky BABIP numbers. So I mark this as a push for the Cubs in '09.

 

2008 - 2B DeRosa/Fontenot 2009 - 2B Miles/Fontenot - Someone has already mentioned that Fontenot had a BABIP of .355. He will not repeat that. Bill James, Chone, and Marcel all have him in the low .800s for OPS or in the high .700s. That is a .100 drop or more from last season. DeRosa put up an OPS in the mid .800s last season. All of the projections for Miles have him in the .600s or very low .700s. So I mark this as a downgrade for the Cubs for '09.

 

2008 - SS Ryan Theriot 2009 - SS Ryan Theriot - 2008 Ryan Theriot had a BABIP of nearly .350 last season. Plus, he put up an OBP of .380+ while only hitting one HR. In 2007 Ryan put up a more typical BABIP of around .300 and was at .266 and .326. It is doubtful that Theriot will repeat a BABIP of nearly .350, so the numbers from 2007 are probably more likely what we'll see him put up this coming season. So I mark this as a downgrade for the Cubs for '09.

 

2008 - 3B Aramis Ramirez 2009 - 3B Aramis Ramirez - AmRam had a career high in BB% by more than 3% points over any season he had ever had. His slugging declined last season to be the lowest its been in 5 years. That said, his BABIP was about where it should be, but was still better than his career mark. All of the projections expect him to not have quite the walk rate he had last season (although still better than anything he had posted before this past season), while maintaining his current SLG. So we may see a 10 point drop in OPS or so from last season. Not enough to call it a downgrade. So I mark this as a push for the Cubs for '09.

 

2008 - LF Alfonso Soriano 2009 - LF Alfonso Soriano - Soriano also walked a bit more in '08 than he normally had in his career. His BABIP was pretty much expected, slightly over .300. So I'd expect to see Alfonso Soriano put up similar numbers next year. Perhaps with an OBP in the .330s rather than the .340s. I think it is interesting too that all the projections have him projected to be worse than last year, they must be factoring for age, which is possible as Soriano turned 33 a few days ago. But I will mark this as a push for the Cubs for '09.

 

2008 - CF Johnson/Edmonds 2009 - Fukudome/Johnson - Johnson's BABIP was .367 last year. He's not going to repeat that. Edmonds put up an OPS over .900. Fukudome and Johnson are both likely to put up OPS in the low to mid .700s. Plus I would claim that going from Edmonds to Fukudome in CF is a huge drop off defensively. I will mark this as a significant downgrade for the Cubs for '09.

 

2008 - RF Fukudome/DeRosa 2009 - Bradley/Fukudome - Bradley put up a BABIP of .396 last season. He will likely be a slight improvement over the numbers DeRosa put up in RF last season. Fukudome is likely a wash. So, I will mark this as a slight upgrade for the Cubs for ´09.

 

2008 - SP Zambrano 2009 - SP Zambrano - Zambrano has had his K rates steadily decline for two seasons now. This last season was his lowest K rate since 2001 (where he only pitched in 7 innings). The big question mark here is will that continue its decline? Also his FIP has been over 4 for the past three seasons, one has to wonder with the defensive downgrade in the OF whether his numbers will begin to head in that direction. I think the best the Cubs can hope for with Zambrano is a push from last season.

 

2008 - SP Dempster 2009 - SP Dempster - Dempster posted a sub 3 ERA last season. He was helped by having a strand rate of over 76%. The projections of Dempster are all over the board, but all agree that the best the Cubs should expect from him is a 3.60 ERA, with an ERA in the low 4s even being possible. This doesn´t even consider the fact that he went 200 innings last season after converting from the pen. So I mark this as a downgrade for the Cubs for '09.

 

2008 - SP Lilly 2009 - SP Lilly - Lilly also stranded 76% of runners last season and had a FIP in the mid 4s. Most projections have him repeating last season. I don´t see how he could do signifcantly better, I mark this as a push for the Cubs for ´09.

 

2008 - SP Harden, Marshall, and Others 2009 - Harden & Others - Harden has a tear in his shoulder. I don´t think the Cubs can expect him to pitch more than he did last season. His career seems to indicate that is about all they can expect from him this year. That spells two problems for the Cubs 1) Harden is good, but he is not going to post a sub 2 ERA again. Most projections have him with an ERA around 3. I think that is fair. As for the "others". With Marshall now in the ´09 starting rotation, the depth is not there. This will be a rather large downgrade for the Cubs. So I mark this as a downgrade for the Cubs for ´09.

 

2008 - SP Marquis 2009 - SP Marshall - Marshall only pitched 96 innings last season, while only barely cracking 130 the previous year. He is a solid pitcher. But frankly, if he pitches the whole season, I don´t expect his numbers to be much better than Marquis 4.53. Last year Marshall benefited from a left on percentage of nearly 80%. So I mark this as a push for the Cubs for ´09.

 

Added on top of all of this, I should mention that the SP depth of the Cubs is a significant downgrade in comparison to last season. If they ever have more than one pitcher go down at once (which could happen with Harden being likely to spend lots of time on the DL, Zambrano having DL problems recently, and Marshall trying to pitch a full season when he hasn´t pitched over 150 in one season in his career.)

 

I´ll be quick about the bullpen. Since this has gone on more than enough.

Having Marmol in the closer spot rather than the setup spot is a downgrade for Chicago.

Gragg (sp?) will not put up Wood type numbers, and will be a downgrade for Chicago.

Vizcaino should be better than Howry was last year, so that is an upgrade.

The rest of the bullpen is a push in my mind.

 

In total I count - 7 downgrades from last season.

2 upgrades from last season.

and 8 pushes from last season.

 

I do not see this team as being as good as it was last year, it could be significantly worse, especially at middle infield and outfield. Last year they received some amazing contributions in those areas that they are unlikely to receive in '09. I´m not saying the Cubs will be horrible, but I think they have regressed some where if the Brewers or another team in the Central has a couple of guys perform better than last season, the Cubs could be caught.

[Big]

you should do this for every other team in the NL central in a "Why the Brew Crew's gonna win in 09 thread"

[strawbossisevil]

Well some teams are easier to look at than others (in the manner that I outlined in my previous post). The Cubs don´t have a single "rookie" player in the bunch, Marshall would be the closest. Every single player they have has enough past stats that we can look at what should be expected from them, pick up on trends, etc.

 

What is astounding to me is just how many players on the Cubs had BABIP well above the sustainable level last year. They had next to no one come in below average in that regard. The law of averages will likely hit the Cubs pretty hard this next season.

 

Like I said, I see them as much weaker up the middle (2b, SS, CF) and most likely also in the starting rotation. People like Dempster and Harden may be good pitchers, but they are not likely to be as good as they were last year.

 

Does this mean that they are not the favorite to win the division? I still think they are, every other team in the division has big question marks. But they are most definitely not a shoo in. Their team looks pretty solid on paper, but so did last year´s Tigers. It´s why we play the games instead of just crown a winner at the beginning of the year.

[Big]

I think your use of BABIP to guarantee a down year uses an absurd kind of Gambler's logic. In theriot's case It's particularly confusing. Obviously, any team can have a down year, but for the cubs, 08 wasn't one of them, and if you're looking for cracks in the foundation it doesn't look too good for the brewers and the cardinals either. This is all on paper, thank god.

[strawbossisevil]

How is it absurd? Theroit posted a likely unsustainable BABIP last season. Why are we to just assume he could repeat that? It COULD happen. If you look at MLB history, not many have ever been able to sustain as high of an BABIP as Theriot had last season. The burden of proof is on you to explain why he could repeat those numbers.

 

The average for BABIP generally hovers around .300, .350 (what Theriot had last season) is generally not sustainable. So if we expect him to put up a BABIP closer to league average, that puts him much closer to his '07 numbers. If that happens he is a rather large downgrade offensively from where he ended up in '08. I think the burden of proof is on someone to prove that his '08 numbers are sustainable. Perhaps you can enlighten me, how do you see it being likely for him to repeat last year's numbers?

 

And no, 2008 was not a down year for the Cubs. Where did I say that? In fact, 2008 was a year where many of the Cubs hitters had BABIP at unsustainable levels, and where Dempster and Harden put up ERAs that they are unlikely to repeat. They played over their heads in that regard. It's possible, I suppose that one or two could repeat that luck, but I don't see it across the board.

[JohnBriggs12]

The BABIP stat is flawed because it assumes hitters have zero control over how well they center the bat on the ball and where the ball is hit. Theriot is very skilled at shooting base hit after base hit to RF. That is a skill, not luck as strawbossisevil implies. In the old days it was referred to as ability to "handle the bat".

 

Not all hitters have the bat control of a Theriot. In a lot of ways he's a throwback. Miles is a very similar type hitter. Piniella was that type of hitter himself. Those types don't luck into hitting .300.

[Fatter than Joey]

The average for BABIP generally hovers around .300, .350 (what Theriot had last season) is generally not sustainable... Perhaps you can enlighten me, how do you see it being likely for him to repeat last year's numbers?

 

You can't use BABIP for batters like you do for pitchers... Except for a few, most pitchers hover around that league average, they may be up or down from year to year but they all usually end up at the same place eventually.

 

Basically -- there used to be a notion that pitchers controlled somehow balls hit in play -- but this is not the case -- generally when a ball is hit in play a pitcher has little to do whether the ball ends up being a hit or an out -- statistically speaking of course.

 

The same is not true for batters. Some batters have the skill of putting the ball in play and getting a hit -- (and of course the opposite is true at well.)

 

Now, you may be ultimately correct that Theriot can't sustain his BABIP -- but you could certainly be wrong as well. Furthermore your approach to "regression" to the mean is a bit simplistic -- If you treat ABs as coin flips, grouping the ABs in a season is entirely arbitrary -- I think people assume that if you are .300 hitter and you hit .200 in 2007 that you are due to hit .400 the next year. -- Things will eventually even out -- but they won't adhere to the nice cookie-cut season data samples.

 

I think there are 2 things problematic with your approach.

 

1.) You are treating a batter's BABIP like a pitcher's BABIP

 

2.) You are assuming regression to happen in 2009, when it could happen in 2010, or somewhere else down the road. Gambler's fallacy sort of thing.

 

Of course your arguments may end up happening, but I don't think they are solid.

[homer]

It seems like every year for the last three years or so we've had a big discussion on why the Cubs will be worse next season than they were the previous year and every year we're wrong. Well I'm just going to assume the Cubs will be really good this year and they play over their heads because that is their nature - except in the playoffs.

[Invader3K]

According to MLBTraderumors, Buster Olney says there have been no recent talks between the Cubs and Padres about Peavy, but speculates things could resume with the new ownership being selected in Chicago.

[homer]

The BABIP stat is flawed because it assumes hitters have zero control over how well they center the bat on the ball and where the ball is hit.

Theriot notwithstanding, how many MLB hitters use that approach these days? I'd say it's a very small percentage and usually guys with no power.

[strawbossisevil]

Well we could assume that somehow Theroit has some how come up with a way to have a BABIP well above the league average. Or we could just look back to his previous season, where he was at the league average.

 

So, if it is a skill he has, it's only been recently learned.

 

I do think when you project how a player is going to perform in the next season, you have to look at numbers like BABIP and expect some regression to the mean. Mean being average, meaning if the player had 10,000 ABs, that's probably where they end up. Certainly its possible that Theriot ends up over the mean again this next season, it is equally possible however that he falls below the mean as well. The odds are exactly the same.

 

I really think the Cubs as a team overperformed offensively last season. I don't think it is likely that they will overperform to the extent they did in '08 in '09.

 

Below is a chart for perhaps the best hitter in the game, Albert Pujols.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1177_1B_season_full_7_20080930.png

Notice that while he had three seasons where he approached .350 (he's never had a season as high as Theriot), the majority of his other seasons hovered around the MLB average, and this is perhaps the best hitter in the game. I don't see how we can expect the majority of the Cubs players to continue to do, what even Albert can't do on a year in year out basis. I'd really like to see someone find a chart for a current player who consistently keeps a BABIP at .350 or higher. I just don't think said player exists.

[rluzinski]

The BABIP stat is flawed because it assumes hitters have zero control over how well they center the bat on the ball and where the ball is hit.

 

People using BABIP are not assuming it's completely a luck stat, or else they would predict a league average BABIP for everyone. For any stat, the observed spread is always larger than the true spread in talent. That's how sample statistics work. The farther away a stat is from the mean, the larger regression we generally expect.

 

Having a .350 BABIP is like a guy hitting 70 HRs. You could argue that he should be expected to do it again but the odds say that you would be wrong. Conversely, we wouldn't predict a league average number of HRs from him, either. The best guess would lie between the two.

 

Theriot is very skilled at shooting base hit after base hit to RF. That is a skill, not luck as strawbossisevil implies. In the old days it was referred to as ability to "handle the bat".

 

So how the heck do you explain his .289 BABIP in 2007? He was below league average! Was he working on his throwback/bat-handling skills during the 2007-2008 off season or did he still have all those skills in 2007 but was simply the victim of bad luck? The most likely explanation, of course, is that his true skill is somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 BABIP.

 

The projections predict a slightly above average BABIP from Theriot. .315 looks like a good guess. He still is projected to hit well for a SS in 2009, though.

[silversurferr]

Great staff on paper. But as said above, Harden, Dempster, and Lilly have issues. And thanks to Dusty, Zambrano's arm is prematurely wearing out. Still, Brewers rotation is not even close. Love Gallardo. Parra has great upside. Bush is extra solid. But Suppan is weak, and McClung is erratic (even though he has a big upside if he can show control over 20-25 starts). And there is big trouble if someone gets hurt.

[strawbossisevil]

Thanks rluzinski, I figured a stat guy would help back me up on it. Like I was saying all along, it's not impossible he has a .350 BABIP next season, but a certain amount of regression is much more likely.

[Big]

Milton Bradley hit .320 with a with a .389 BABIP last year.

 

edit: and we've gotten off topic. All of yesterday when you typed "peavy" into google news the sole two articles in the most current grouping were as such: the bleacherreport.com saying "Come To Think Of It...Cubs Fans: Tom Ricketts ? Jake Peavy" (which is a rescension of their last few articles which said in typical post pie deal in excited fashion that a deal was imminent) and this article out of california: PADRES ANALYSIS: Peavy to Cubs making more sense?. So This speculation is becoming a bore. reports suggest that Hendry and Towers haven't really talked since Winter and the cubs are very close atm to 140m which is their soft or rumored payroll for 09 and Tom Ricketts bought the team for 900m but he only came to the table with 450m which doesn't speak volumes for him as a cash-machine and even in a best case scenario it would hard to imagine the transfer of ownership process to be complete by opening day. I don't think anyone knows %#% is going on.