Jake Peavy

[Ennder]

Right now the Cubs arent' any better than last year, they have more risk on their team and their minor league system isn't as good. If that is how to run a MLB team I'm glad Melvin never learned it.

 

Now that DeRosa and Pie are gone I don't see what package the Cubs have that would get Peavy unless they completely gut their already weak minor league system which is something the Brewers couldn't afford to do.

[Big]

Right now the Cubs arent' any better than last year, they have more risk on their team and their minor league system isn't as good. If that is how to run a MLB team I'm glad Melvin never learned it.

 

Now that DeRosa and Pie are gone I don't see what package the Cubs have that would get Peavy unless they completely gut their already weak minor league system which is something the Brewers couldn't afford to do.

The assumption is that the pitching prospects received by trading DeRosa and Pie would go to San Diego, along with some other pieces like SS Ronny Cedeno (and likely including the cubs best prospect, 3B Josh Vitters). Padres said explicitly that it would definitely take pitching to get a deal done. DeRosa was extremely valuable to the cubs and on a very reasonable salary-- for a team trying to win now, these moves would only make real sense if they added up to Peavy.

[jjfanec]

The assumption is that the pitching prospects received by trading DeRosa and Pie would go to San Diego, along with some other pieces like SS Ronny Cedeno (and likely including the cubs best prospect, 3B Josh Vitters). Padres said explicitly that it would definitely take pitching to get a deal done. DeRosa was extremely valuable to the cubs and on a very reasonable salary-- for a team trying to win now, these moves would only make real sense if they added up to Peavy.

The reality is that none of the pitching prospects they received are that great. They would be nothing more than filler in this deal. Vitters would have to be the center and a good amount more would have to go along with that. If the Cubs really wanted to send the guys from Baltimore to San Diego ( and if that was the design all along) they why did they not do a three team deal. If the hope for these trades was to land Peavy it is really, really risky because if the Padres do not decide to deal Peavy you are left with guys you want. That is why I think the Cubs thought these moves made the team better. I just do not think they did. DeRosa was extremely valuable and nobody they got in any of their trades outside of Gregg help this team right now.

[brewtank34]

good point about the no trade clause....however, I do remember that Peavey said he'd open up his list if needed to get out of SD. So, I think Melvin could be offering something and see how it flies.

[naivin]

Who cares if the Cubs haven't improved themselves...they finished with the best record in the NL by far. Have they gotten worse? Not likely. Granted they seized up in the playoffs, but it is hard to conclude that is a function of talent. A better question will be have the Brewers improved themselves enough to compete with the Cubs for the division? Doesn't seem so.

[Invader3K]

Who cares if the Cubs haven't improved themselves...they finished with the best record in the NL by far. Have they gotten worse? Not likely. Granted they seized up in the playoffs, but it is hard to conclude that is a function of talent. A better question will be have the Brewers improved themselves enough to compete with the Cubs for the division? Doesn't seem so.

Yeah, it's not even close at this point. It basically seems like the Brewers have ceded the division to the Cubs in hopes of competing for the Wild Card again. Maybe not the worst strategy at this point, but it can be disheartening when you see that as a fan.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Yeah, it's not even close at this point. It basically seems like the Brewers have ceded the division to the Cubs in hopes of competing for the Wild Card again. Maybe not the worst strategy at this point, but it can be disheartening when you see that as a fan.

 

I wouldn't go that far - the depth the Cubs had on the ML roster last season is completely gone, and now it looks like Harden is probably going to need surgery, or 10 days rest between starts to keep his arm from falling off. Aside from the Yankees and Mets, it would be difficult to say that any other teams have significantly improved their roster from what they had last year. I think the Brewers are like a lot of teams not named the Yankees this offseason - they're going to see where they stand when June rolls around, and if they have a shot they'll make some trades to take on salary that losing teams are going to be rushing to shed.

 

I think a signing/trade for one more solid starter would significantly increase my optimism for the Brewers' chances, and it doesn't necessarily have to happen before the season starts.

[naivin]

I wouldn't go that far - the depth the Cubs had on the ML roster last season is completely gone,

How do you figure? They basically lost DeRosa, Pie, and Wood, and replaced them with Miles, Bradley and Gregg. I might even suggest they have gotten better (Harden is obviously an open question at this point.).

[endaround]

Bradlwey is replacing what they got out of Edmonds and DeRosa. That's a wash (yes Edmonds was not going to repeat what he did). Miles isn't good, Gregg isn't as good as Wood.

[fondybrewfan]

I wouldn't go that far - the depth the Cubs had on the ML roster last season is completely gone,

How do you figure? They basically lost DeRosa, Pie, and Wood, and replaced them with Miles, Bradley and Gregg. I might even suggest they have gotten better (Harden is obviously an open question at this point.).

Derosa >>>>>> Miles

Wood >>>>>>> Gregg (PLus this forces them to use Marmol as closer instead of when they really need him)

Bradley >>>>> Pie (But with a huge injury risk)

 

The Cubs are just not as good as last year plus their key offensive players are a year older, and one could reasonably expect Soto and Dempster to come back down to earth. ( I think Soto will be consistently good, not sure about Dempster though)

 

The Cubs would be giving up a bunch of B prospects to get Peavy. If I am Towers I want actualy top prospects for a player of Peavy's talent not a huge quantity of mediocre talent.

[jjfanec]

How do you figure? They basically lost DeRosa, Pie, and Wood, and replaced them with Miles, Bradley and Gregg. I might even suggest they have gotten better (Harden is obviously an open question at this point.).

They also lost Jason Marquis he put up nice numbers for a number 5 pitcher last year and gave them depth they lack right now as everyone of their starters has questions except Lilly. People are undervaluing DeRosa. The numbers he put up with the flexibility he gave them is going to be hard to replace. Aaron Miles has a career OPS of .693 and an OBP of .329. He does not have a lot of value. Kevin Gregg is not as good as Kerry Wood and now they have lost the flexibility they had with Marmol as they make him a closer. Bradley is a nice addition, but last year was the first year since 2004 he played more than 100 games and he DH'ed most of the year. Their defense in the OF could be horrendous with those Wrigley winds. That does not even take into effect the Harden's injury, Z's becoming a pitcher who has about a 4 ERA, and Dempster coming off a career year and most likely regressing at least a bit.

This is not to say the Brewers have a had a good off-season and are going to catch the Cubs. I just do not see how the Cubs have really improved themselves and in the process they have left themselves with a very depleted farm system. If they do get Peavy a lot of this changes, but right now I am feel they are worse off than last year.

[naivin]

Bradlwey is replacing what they got out of Edmonds and DeRosa. That's a wash (yes Edmonds was not going to repeat what he did). Miles isn't good, Gregg isn't as good as Wood.

Pie wasn't good either. Plus both Bradley and Miles are switch hitters which is big for a team that need additional left handed hitting.

 

Gregg isn't replacing Wood, Marmol is...that's likely to be an upgrade. That hurts them in that Marmol was great in his role where Lou would use him basically wherever he needed him, but Gregg is more of a replacement for Bob Howry. That's an obvious upgrade. Their bullpen is certainly not worse, and potentially better...

 

Smardzija, Gregg, Marmol >(probably) Marmol, Howry, Wood

 

I wouldn't argue very vehimently that they have gotten better, but if they've moved in any direction, I would say its in the direction of improvement. Age could become a factor, but they certainly haven't lost depth.

[endaround]

But he isn't replacing Pie, he's replacing Edmonds.

 

Edmonds as a Cub: .256/.369/.568 in 295 PAs.

[naivin]

But he isn't replacing Pie, he's replacing Edmonds.

Either way.

 

Gone are Edmonds, Pie, and DeRosa, basically replaced by Bradley and Miles. For this season, that is at worst a wash, and more likely an upgrade.

[endaround]

But DeRosa is loads better than Miles. Thats the point. They needed Bradley just to equal out Edmonds but they moved DeRosa to do so worsening the team.

[jjfanec]

Pie wasn't good either. Plus both Bradley and Miles are switch hitters which is big for a team that need additional left handed hitting.

 

Gregg isn't replacing Wood, Marmol is...that's likely to be an upgrade. That hurts them in that Marmol was great in his role where Lou would use him basically wherever he needed him, but Gregg is more of a replacement for Bob Howry. That's an obvious upgrade. Their bullpen is certainly not worse, and potentially better...

 

Smardzija, Gregg, Marmol >(probably) Marmol, Howry, Wood

How is Gregg replacing Howry? Marmol is taking Woods spot so Gregg if he is not replacing Wood is replacing Marmol. The small step up from Wood to Marmol is lost in the large step back from Marmol to Gregg. Marmol was great in his role as he could eat up multiple innings which maybe Gregg can do but not as effectively as Marmol. Smardzija is replacing Howry. It is hard to know what you are getting in Smardzija. He was great in August but awful in September. He should be a step up from Bobby Howry last year.

 

Miles may be a switch-hitter but he is better as a righty of his career and is really not good as a lefty, .690 OPS and .321 OBP. All his numbers for the most part are worse than what DeRosa put up versus RHP. So, you do not add something to your team if the lefty you add is worse at hitting RHP than the righty before him. Jim Edmonds is also a lefty like endaround said and he put up great numbers last year. Bradley might match those numbers over the year or be a little better but he is not a significant upgrade to what was there last year. Both guys are injury prone, and edmonds is better in the field.

[naivin]

Grasp for whatever straws you wish, but it looks as if the Cubs' roster this year shapes up at least as good as last year, and possibly better. Obviously, the games need to be played, but there is little to indocate they do not have talent and depth equal to teh team that won 97 games last year.

 

To suggest that Gregg, Bradley, and Miles don't adequately cover the loss of Wood, Edmonds, DeRosa, and Pie seems like wishful thinking at best. From where I'm sitting, the gap between the Cubs and Brewers seems to be getting wider, not smaller.

[RyDogg66]

I also disagree that the Cubs have gotten better. It isnt just Wood, Edmonds and DeRosa - the players - that they lost, it is great production that you would not otherwise expect from them last year that the Cubs have not replaced with Gregg, Bradley and Miles.

 

The combo of Reed JOhnson and Jim Edmonds was unrealistically effective in CF last year and I doubt that Bradley and whomever they team him with will repeat that. Aaron Miles isnt close to what DeRosa did last year and Wood for Gregg isnt really close. Not only that, but with Marmol, their best reliever, pigeonholed into the 9th inning as the closer that means that lesser, more unproven players are going to have to come in a strike out the side in the 7th with runners on 2nd and 3rd and a one run lead.

[jjfanec]

Grasp for whatever straws you wish, but it looks as if the Cubs' roster this year shapes up at least as good as last year, and possibly better. Obviously, the games need to be played, but there is little to indocate they do not have talent and depth equal to teh team that won 97 games last year.

 

To suggest that Gregg, Bradley, and Miles don't adequately cover the loss of Wood, Edmonds, DeRosa, and Pie seems like wishful thinking at best. From where I'm sitting, the gap between the Cubs and Brewers seems to be getting wider, not smaller.

How is pointing out statistics from last year grasping at straws? Of the the three mentioned Bradley for Edmonds and Pie is the only obvious upgrade, but it really is not obvious because of how great Edmonds numbers were for the Cubs. As the bad defensive Brewers team in the past have shown defense matter and an OF of Soriano, Johnson/Fukudome and Bradley will be poor. Wood at worst is equal to Gregg, but I know I would rather have Wood than Gregg. DeRosa is heads and shoulders above Miles.

 

There is actually a lot to indicate they wont reach what they did last year. Harden is already hurt. Marshall is their 5th starter and they have no depth behind him, so their rotation will be Z, Dempster, Harden (if healthy), Lilly, Marshall, and Guzman/Smardizija as the 6th. Marquis may not have been great but he provided nice depth for them. The have less talented depth in the infield and outfield than they did last year. Now I am not saying they will drop to being a .500 type team but they are not as good as they were last year in my mind. If Harden magically stays healthy and so does Bradley then they will be close to what they were last year, but history says both of those guys will miss significant time and the Cubs don't have a lot depth to back that up. The other big questions are do they get the 2007 Theriot and Dempster or the 2008 versions.

This is not grasping at straws. It is looking at a team objectively just like I would with the Brewers and the many questions we have this year.

 

Edit - I posted this just after rydogg and agree with everything he said

[JohnBriggs12]

Aaron Miles alone isn't replacing DeRosa. Miles and Fontenot figure to share 2B. Fontenot earned more PT by hitting .305/.395/.514 in 243 AB's. Both Miles and Fontenot are better defensively than DeRosa. Fontenot had .996 FP and Miles had a .988 FP. DeRosa made double the errors (8) than Miles and Fontenot combined.

 

Nobody has even mentioned Gathright who's in the mix in CF along with Fukudome and Reed Johnson. Nor has anyone mentioned Hoffpauir who replaces Daryl Ward. Luis Vizcaino replaces Howry.

 

Here's the summary:

 

New: Bradley Old: Edmonds Bradley will play RF, not CF and he's not a bad defensive OF when healthy. Edmonds hit a lot of HR for Cubs last year in large part because his power was to the shortest part of Wrigley, the well in LF. Bradley is by far the better overall hitter.

 

New Miles Old: DeRosa. DeRosa is a fine hitter, and his versatility will be missed, but Miles and Mike Fontenot both hit over .300 last year and are better defensively at 2B.

 

New: Vizcaino Old: Howry One veteran rubber armed reliever coming off a down year replacing another. A total wash.

 

New: Gregg Old: Wood Gregg is at least as accomplished a reliever as Wood without the injury risk.

 

New: Gathright Old: Pie Gathright hasn't done much offensively but neither has Pie. Both can run.

 

New: Hoffpauir Old: Ward Hoffpauir had one of the best offensive seasons by any AAA player in 2008 and it translated in limited ABs for Cubs: .342/.400/.534. If Bradley goes down, look for Hoffpauir not to miss a beat offensively. Ward on the other hand was stricly a PH in recent years.

 

Harden was "hurt" when he posted a 1.77 ERA for Cubs last year. Last year at this time, Rich Hill was in their rotation.

 

If the Cubs have a weakness, it's that Neal Cotts is their lone lefty in the bullpen (not counting the newly acquired Olson who figures to be long reliever/spot starter if he makes the team). But last year all they had was Scott Eyre and Marshall as the long man/spot starter so not much change there.

[Weirdos19]

Didn't know we had that many Cub fans on this board.

 

1. Harden did tear something in his shoulder, but it had to be after the trade to the Cubs. No way the Cubs trade for a pitcher that is damaged goods. The way he was throwing, there is no way he got hurt until the end of the year.

2. Comparing fifth outfielders makes no sense. Very few at bats, barring injury. Mostly on teams for defense, and Gathright is poor defensively. Pie is as good, with alot more upside.

3. DeRosa was arguably the Cubs MVP. Who plays third this year when Ramirez has his annual 15 day DL trip? Hoffpauir is more of a first baseman than an outfielder too.

4. Edmonds getting replaced by Johnson/Fukudome is a step back. Sure, he didn't hit 280 last year, but he was the left handed stick in the lineup. Now, Bradley is replacing him. A step back defensively too, eventhough Edmonds isn't nearly as quick as he once was.

5. Saying Gregg replaces Wood is laughable. Gregg is going from Marlins stadium to Wrigley. Ick.

6. Hoffpauir is a step up from Ward. Suprised he didn't get a shot to play everyday.

 

If anything the Cubs have taken a giant step sideways. If Peavy is acquired, he won't be any better than Harden was for them last year.

 

My questions are:

1. How does Dempster's arm react from 200 innings?

2. How long before Zambrano and Bradley get into it?

3. Who does play third when Ramirez is hurt?

4. How does Marmol pitch after getting abused last year?

5. What do the Cubs do when their CF trio is combining to hit .240 in the middle of June? Play Soriano or Bradley in center?

[naivin]

My questions are:

1. How does Dempster's arm react from 200 innings?

2. How long before Zambrano and Bradley get into it?

3. Who does play third when Ramirez is hurt?

4. How does Marmol pitch after getting abused last year?

5. What do the Cubs do when their CF trio is combining to hit .240 in the middle of June? Play Soriano or Bradley in center?

Those questions are silly. They could apply to any team.

 

1. How does Yovanni Gallardo hold up after only 134 MLB IP the last 2 years?

2. How long before Mannay Parra and Prince Fielder get into it again?

3. Who plays SS when JJ hardy gets hurt?

4. How does Trevor Hoffman pitch at the end of his career?

5. What do the Brewers do when the 3B duo is hitting .240 in the middle of June?

5a. What do the Brewers do when the 2B duo is hitting .240 in the middle of June?

 

BTW, in answer to your questions...

 

1. There is no reason to necessarily expect Dempster can't handle the load again.

2. Who cares?

3. I assume Aarobn Miles could handle 3B for a couple weeks.

4. Legitimate question, but again, no reason to think he won't handle it just fine. The guy has pitched plenty of innings in both minors and majors.

5. Maybe nothing. If they are catching the ball, they have plenty of offense everywhere else that it might not matter much.

[RyDogg66]

Call me crazy JohnBriggs12, but I just dont see the Cubs have .900+ OPS talent at every position (including their bench) like you do. I also find it curious that you have generally have disliked everything the Brewers do and over estimate everything the Cubs do.

 

Mike Fontenot - 2008 OPS = .909. A decent little player, finally made it to the majors at age 28 after spending 6 years in the minors after being drafted out of college.

 

Micah Hoffpauir - 2008 OPS = .934. A decent corner Of/1b reserve, finally made it to the majors at age 28 after spending 6+ years in minors. He might be Brad Nelson with a good string of 73 MLB at bats for all we know.

 

Milton Bradley - 2008 OPS = .999. Career OPS .822. Good hitter, unable to stay healthy, overachieved in hitters park, cant play CF. Likely to hit about .850 OPS.

 

Aaron Miles - .2008 OPS = .753. Career OPS .697. Good fielder, likely to hit about .700 OPS. If the Brewers signed him you would positively hate the move.

[Ennder]

I don't think the Cubs are worse than last year, just riskier. They made moves that didn't really improve the team and hurt the depth of the team somewhat and added more injury risk come playoff time with Bradley. This is not a good offseason for the Cubs. It isn't a disaster and I still think they win division handily but they hardly have had an offseason that Melvin should be looking at as to 'how to run a MLB team' as was suggested.

[ILuvDaBush]

I think the Bradley signing is going to blow up in their faces. Bradley is all but assured of getting injured, as well as angry. And the loss of DeRosa hurts EVERYWHERE. He was everything Bill Hall was supposed to be.