Cain and Gillespie

[TheCrew07]

Gillespie is solid yet unspectacular, he reminds me quite a bit of Gabe Gross without the arm. I really don't see him starting in the outfield, but I think he could be a very solid bench guy. A good case can be made that he's one of the organizations 5 best hitters in the minors (with LaPorta and Brantley gone), but the outfield is clogged in front of him, and get's more so in the worst case scenario that Gamel ends up out there as well. IIRC his arm is pretty poor (surgery?), defensively he really only fits in LF, and while Braun could play RF, Hart would have to be moved... Gamel stick at 3rd, Lucroy stay at catcher (with or without Salome), etc, etc, etc...

 

To me Gillespie is simply fantastic depth.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I think one of these two players will be replacing Corey Hart in RF in the next 2 years. If I had to guess, I'd say Gillespie. I'd go year to year with Hart in arbitration and give one of these guys a shot in 2010 and see what they've got.

[dadofandrew]

Comparing what Gillespie did at 24 and in AA to what Hart did at 20/21 in AA, and then thinking Cole is going to magically be better in a year or two?

 

Unlikely, to say the least. Cain at least does have upside.

[cakecrusher]

I suppose this is as good a place as any for this question. Do the Brewers have to add Cain to the 40-man roster this offseason? I think the rules changed to 4/5 years in the last cba, but I am not sure how his draft/signing age is calculated for that purpose. On the same note, does anyone have a quick list of critical prospects that must be added to the 40-man this winter?

[Diskono]

Link? From what I remember when looking at minor league translations and other comments throughout the year Huntsville is not a pitchers park.

I think Huntsville has historically been more of a pitcher's park, but has been pretty neutral in recent years (link), possibly due to the quality of the Brewers' prospects. The Southern League as a whole has a reputation of being pitcher-friendly, but I don't know how true that is.

[colbyjack]

I've been one of the biggest proponents for Cole Gillespie, and I think Toby put it best in his P50 comment, "The quietest 858 OPS in Southern League history?" However, even I will admit that at 24 years old it seems unlikely that he develops into more than a platoon player. He has been compared to Matt Murton in the past, a comparison that I think is spot on. The biggest thing working against Gillespie in the Brewers organization is the fact that he bats right-handed. With an all RH hitting OF this past year (which doesn't look as though it will change anytime soon), Gillespie might have a hard time sticking with the Brewers and may end up finding success with another team.

 

Lorenzo Cain on the other hand I think is one of the most talented Brewers prospects that people don't seem to be hyping up as much as they could, although that can be justified since the statistical success hasn't been as pronounced the past two seasons. That IMO has to do with his production in the FSL, which really took the wind out of his sails following a very good year with West Virginia in 2006 (which followed up his MVP season in the Arizona Rookie League in 2005). Again noted in the P50 comments, Cain progressed in some key areas this past year, and here is his year-by-year breakdown:

 

2005: .341/.408/.507 in 229 AB (most at Arizona)

2006: .306/.383/.423 in 527 AB (record-breaking year at WV in Sally League)

2007: .276/.338/.344 in 482 AB (power was surpressed the first year in the FSL)

2008: .279/.356/.448 in 484 AB (similar ABs as 2007, but the patience and power really improved)

Career: .294/.366/.422 in 1,722 career ABs

 

Plus, he's 94 for 123 in stolen base attempts (a 76% success rate).

 

Cain reminds me a lot of Randy Winn, a career 'tweener in that he doesn't have the ideal range to play CF but excels in RF. A player that has been miscast as a leadoff hitter at times during his career but has thrived in other spots of the lineup. A player whose power isn't ideal for a corner spot, but at least has matured to a respectable level. Winn has always been a solid, reliable and durable big-league player (and one that actually would be a very good fit for the current Brewers lineup), even if he has been overpaid the past few years.

 

I bring this up because players that profile in a similar fashion to players like Randy Winn and Matt Murton are just as important for the team to develop internally as players such as Ryan Braun or even Mitch Stetter, and I'm encouraged by Cain's and Gillespie's development so far. Hopefully Cain really turns the corner next year while Gillespie stays pretty much as steady as he has been with them both starting to knock at the big-league door. Cain figures to be the better fit to the Brewers future OF since he profiles better in CF than Gillespie does.

[dadofandrew]

Colby, welcome to the Gillespie is a reserve/platoon guy bandwagon. It's been lonely for me.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

As you say though, developing bench guys is great, as they're far cheaper than bringing in Kaplers and Counsells.

[colbyjack]

Don't get me wrong, Gillespie could still develop into an everyday player. His age obviously is the biggest thing working against him, but he has hit at every level he has played at, with people often dismissing his production because he is older than guys like Cain, Brantley, etc. That doesn't mean his production or overall talent level is any less legitimate.

 

As I noted above, for the Brewers in particular Gillespie may have a hard time getting a chance to prove himself.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Colby, welcome to the Gillespie is a reserve/platoon guy bandwagon. It's been lonely for me.

 

Wait a minute here, Al...it seems to me that you're taking credit for a position that several people have articulated numerous times in the past. We've talked about Gillespie a lot, and the perspective that he's a second-tier prospect, or a potential 4th of / platoon guy is hardly unique. How else does one interpret the Matt Murton comparison? Or, as someone wrote a few posts above, Gabe Gross? (Though Gross has two advantages over Gillespie in his defense and his handedness.)

[Postseason2006]

You'll be waiting along time for the LuCroy is a reserve bandwagon to get full....

[dadofandrew]

I may be exaggerating it a bit, but I sure see a lot more references to him as a starter.

 

As for Lucroy, I was just passing on what I had heard, though BA pretty much agreed with it too. I don't usually judge a player much until they reach AA.

[And That]

You'll be waiting along time for the LuCroy is a reserve bandwagon to get full....

It is not necessary to repeat this ad nauseum. Everyone on the minor league forum has now read this, or a version of this, about a dozen times.

 

And it is Lucroy, no capital "C".

[clancyphile]

Comparing what Gillespie did at 24 and in AA to what Hart did at 20/21 in AA, and then thinking Cole is going to magically be better in a year or two?

 

Unlikely, to say the least. Cain at least does have upside.

Far be it for me to disagree, but I think Gillespie is arguably the better prospect, particularly given the relative weaknesses the Brewers have displayed. Gillespie draws walks and generates OBP - and he does both well. He also adds good doubles power, too.

 

He's also got a fair bit of speed. Not Darren Ford, but when a guy is successful over 90% of the time - and 80% over three years (higher than Lorenzo Cain's) - he's not a slouch, either.

 

Cain strikes me as the backup type - another Brady Clark with more speed. Gillespie, though, is someone I'd think about giving a crack at the leadoff spot in 2010. Maybe even 2009, if you want to put Hart in center and Braun in right. Don't sell Cole short.

 

EDIT: As an aside, Gillespie's MLE would be .271/.345/.442 - an OPS of .787, below average for LF, but his OPS would have been higher than that of Rickie Weeks. I say give him a crack at the leadoff slot.

[dadofandrew]

I just don't understand how anyone can look at a slightly higher OPS with far less athletic ability at age 24 and like that more than an age 22 guy with a slightly lower OBP and far more athleticism. Throw in the fact Cain can play CF and Gillespie is likely limited to LF because of his arm, I don't even think it's close.

 

That said, the Gillespie to Brady Clark comparison may be very valid. That's some good thinking out of the box.

[homer]

I definitely think Cain has a much, much higher ceiling than Gillespie but at some point in the not so distant future he has to show the numbers meeting the potential.

[dadofandrew]

Cain's numbers were near identical in AA to Gillespie's.

[homer]

Cain's numbers were near identical in AA to Gillespie's.

Cain played 40 games at AA, Gillespie played 130.

 

I'll wait until a full AA season equivalent before passing judgement but I do agree that Cain is the better prospect based on ceiling alone.

[clancyphile]

I just don't understand how anyone can look at a slightly higher OPS with far less athletic ability at age 24 and like that more than an age 22 guy with a slightly lower OBP and far more athleticism. Throw in the fact Cain can play CF and Gillespie is likely limited to LF because of his arm, I don't even think it's close.

 

That said, the Gillespie to Brady Clark comparison may be very valid. That's some good thinking out of the box.

Actually, I was comparing Cain to Clark. I regard Gillespie as the better prospect because his strengths are in areas where the Brewers have shown relative weakness over the last two seasons.