The "Reason we are dangerous" thread...

[liveforoctober]

Just throwing out reasons why this won't be a "thanks for the invite to October, we'll be going now" week, and that we have some Colorado 2007 magic in us...

1) Yovani Gallardo - It's the smallest of sample sizes... but YoGa looked filthy in his only start back. If we have a healthy Yo ... we could be a dangerous team.

2) Clutch - How ridiculous have our players been in the clutch when we needed them during the last 10 days? 2 walk-offs, 2 virtual walk-offs, CC Sabathia (there should be a movie made about him), Cameron answering the call at the top of the lineup, etc... in the post-season all games are close and you need your players to come through in stress situations... this is what has me the most excited.

3) Lefties - We haven't been as good as of late... but we are going to see Hamels and Moyer in 2 of the first 3 for sure, and undoubtedly some combination of those 2 again if we go all 5. We were crowned the "left-handed pitcher's nightmare" early in the season and I don't see why it can't start back up now...

4) Momentum - Is on our side...

What else am I missing?...

[dadofandrew]

CC is pitching as well as any SP in the game. If the Crew wins his games, they don't need to steal that many others.

[liveforoctober]

I believe the entire reason we signed Jeff Suppan is for this week...

[owbc]

1. Citizen's Bank Park is small and gives us a chance if the only thing we can do is hit home runs.

 

2. All the pressure of the playoff near-choke has been lifted from the players now. If they can relax, score some early runs, and get the Philly crowd out of the game, they have a good chance to steal a game this week.

[Nottso]

When this team gets hot (see August) they can beat any team in baseball.

[kmcasper23]

We have CC, the best pitcher in baseball right now. In 2003, the wildcard Marlins rode Josh Beckett to a World Series title with a similar ball club. Why can't we?

 

Plus we are young and don't know any better and every expert seems to think we will lose 1st round.

[homer]

Maybe getting the 26 year monkey off their back will relax them.....

[joepepsi]

Yovani and some combo of McClung/Villy will win the first game. That will send Philly scampering. This first round is so short if you get off on the wrong foot you're playing desperate the rest of the way. Philly has scored a lot more runs, but everything else is equal between these two teams: ERA, avg/obp/slg.

 

The Phillies have faced Yovani once and that was last year.

 

Bush has a 3.50 ERA with a 3:1 K:BB ratio at Miller Park this year.

 

I expect the Brewers to win 2 of the first 3, with a good chance for a sweep.

[davemakovec]

Because we hit a lot of home runs. One swing of the bat can change the game.

 

Ask the Cards about Bill Hall and Ryan Braun in St. Louis, the Twins about Jim Thome (and Alexei Ramirez), and the Mets about Wes Freaking Helms.

[rluzinski]

Because in baseball, the odds for playoff series are pretty even no matter what. I have the Brewers with a 46% chance of advancing.:

 

http://rluzinski.blogspot...-phillies-vs-brewers.html

 

Some professional handicapper agrees:

 

http://playoffodds.blogsp...eckett-injury-update.html

 

Vegas says 40%. The Brewers are not some huge dog.

[BuckyBrewer61]

There really is little to no pressure on this team. Everyone is picking the Phillies. Whether they play 3 or 19 games this postseason, they will be heroes in this city for years to come. No more worry about collapsing like they had in September. Of course, pitching, defense, and hitting are just slightly more important factors, but I like the fact that this team shouldn't feel the heat.

[Schlitz001]

You make a good point Bucky. The Phillies made it to the playoffs last year and this year the expectations are to make it to the next round. Just getting to the playoffs was really not their goal at the start of the season so the pressure is all on them to win. That is not to say that the Brewers didn't have dreams winning the World Series coming out of Spring Training, but let's be honest, just making it to the playoffs is a giant accomplishment. Besides maybe the White Sox, the Brewers exhaled the longest after clinching.

[Ennder]

We apparently played above average defense on the year so we are dangerous!

 

http://www.baseballprospe...rticle.php?articleid=8141

 

The Brewers finished second in the league in raw Defensive Efficiency, seventh in Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and a tidy plus-20 Fielding Runs Above Average. That they rate so highly is a testament to the work done by Melvin last winter to shore up a unit that was 28^th out of 30 in PADE last year. Free agents Cameron and Kendall dramatically shored up weak spots, and the shifts of Braun from third base to left field and of Hall from center field to third base worked out well, too. Kendall threw out a major league-leading 42.7 percent of attempted thefts and was 15 runs above average behind the plate according to FRAA. Fielder (-10 FRAA) and Hart (-5 FRAA) are the only regulars who rate below average by our metrics. Additionally, it's worth noting Hardy placed third among major league shortstops in Plus/Minus, available via Bill James Online, while Braun and Cameron both cracked the top 10 at their respective positions-further testament to Melvin's makeover.

[Diskono]

Even though our starting pitching outside of Sabathia and (to some extent) Bush is questionable, we have a ton of guys who can be dominant for shorter stretches. We can throw various combinations of Gallardo, McClung, Villanueva, Parra, and Suppan out there for most of the rest of the innings and be reasonably confident that we won't give up too many runs. And that's before we get to the short relievers.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Sabathia will start 2 games. If he is as dominant as he's been and we can win one of the other 3, we can do this.

 

None of the national press gives us much of a shot. I think they underestimate how good Gallardo really is.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

Sabathia will start 2 games. If he is as dominant as he's been and we can win one of the other 3, we can do this.

 

None of the national press gives us much of a shot. I think they underestimate how good Gallardo really is.

Half the problem is that they can't pronounce his last name...