Why is Hart regressing? / Merged: Corey Hart (.300) OBP

[endaround]

No it didn't start happening last year. All players have bad months, Hart had a bad July but even then his OBP was 60 points higher than his BA. He then went on to play August and September. In August he hit .313/.337/.542 and in September he hit .330/.381/.641.

 

Again his approach changed, he's walking and striking out at a lower rate while hitting fewer fly balls.

[WV Brew]

Time for a new hitting coach. Pretty much everybody has a poor approach at the plate except Prince. Why is Weeks still using that bat waggle? It's awful. Hart is pulling off the ball and has to reach for balls away because of it. That's what needs to be solved.

[bobskube]

I think it is time to say that Corey Hart is a solidly average baseball player. He has been overrated by our fans for long enough.

 

He has a .200 OBP this month with zero homers! His OPS is .463! Even when he gets hits, they are either grounders in between short and third or bloopers that he is fooled on. I can't remember the last time he knocked one hard in the gap.

 

I hope we offer him no extensions and possibly get him on the block for a 3rd starter in the off season.

[Ennder]

You could say he has just really struggled in September too and look at his above average overall stats pre-september. Guess it just depends on whether you want to think positively or negatively about him.

[Ennder]

Why does Weeks use such a small bat too, I've always wondered that. Seems like he can't reach anything on the outer half of the plate with it so I can't imagine it really helps him.

[sbrylski]

1. There is already a Corey Hart thread.

2. His value is going to be pretty low, I think it'd be better to hold onto him another season.

3. A .300 OBP is well below average, as is his OPS of .768. The average RFer hits .348 / .451 / .799.

[bobskube]

Oops, I guess this should be merged. Just noticed other link.

 

Still, Hart's overall stats for the season are below average. I think he is better than that, but his ceiling is pretty average in my opinion.

[Ennder]

Yeah but on Sept 1st he had a line of .288/.322/.500/.822 and nobody was really complaining about him. Yeah that OBP is a tad bit too low but overall he was probably an above average hitter. Whenever a player has a purely miserable month or an amazing good one I assume it is at least partially flukey.

[Gobias Industries]

Why does Weeks use such a small bat too, I've always wondered that. Seems like he can't reach anything on the outer half of the plate with it so I can't imagine it really helps him.

He started using a smaller bat mostly after his wrist surgery I believe.

[bobskube]

Yeah but on Sept 1st he had a line of .288/.322/.500/.822 and nobody was really complaining about him. Yeah that OBP is a tad bit too low but overall he was probably an above average hitter. Whenever a player has a purely miserable month or an amazing good one I assume it is at least partially flukey.

I respectfully disagree. I actually think Hart has been lucky to hit .165 this month. He's had a lot of bloopers and seeing eye singles. I don't think it has been fluky. And I think we now have a season as a whole to look at and we can see that he has underachieved overall.

[Ennder]

Yeah but on Sept 1st he had a line of .288/.322/.500/.822 and nobody was really complaining about him. Yeah that OBP is a tad bit too low but overall he was probably an above average hitter. Whenever a player has a purely miserable month or an amazing good one I assume it is at least partially flukey.

I respectfully disagree. I actually think Hart has been lucky to hit .165 this month. He's had a lot of bloopers and seeing eye singles. I don't think it has been fluky. And I think we now have a season as a whole to look at and we can see that he has underachieved overall.

But you aren't saying he underachieved, you are saying he is overrated which is something very different. If you are going to talk about how good he is or isn't you have to use more than 1 year's data. Last year he had an insane hot streak, this year he had an insanely cold streak. The two probably offset each other and he is that .825-.850 OPS type of player.

[JJHardy7]

3. A .300 OBP is well below average, as is his OPS of .768. The average RFer hits .348 / .451 / .799.

 

This isn't a direct shot by any means on your post. It just drives me crazy to compare a RF on the Brewers to all the MLB RF. If we are better at other positions, it doesn't matter. You do not put a bat in a position based on stats like these. If you did, Braun would still be at 3b. It's a team game. You do not need a 1B that crushes the ball if other positions take care of that. It just doesn't make any sense to keep bringing this up IMO. Again, this isn't against your post, but it's been brought up a ton of bf.net. I don't care what he does compared to his position...does he fit the team's need? That's what I care about.

[JJHardy7]

3. A .300 OBP is well below average, as is his OPS of .768. The average RFer hits .348 / .451 / .799.

 

This isn't a direct shot by any means on your post. It just drives me crazy to compare a RF on the Brewers to all the MLB RF. If we are better at other positions, it doesn't matter. You do not put a bat in a position based on stats like these. If you did, Braun would still be at 3b. It's a team game. You do not need a 1B that crushes the ball if other positions take care of that. It just doesn't make any sense to keep bringing this up IMO. Again, this isn't against your post, but it's been brought up a ton of bf.net. I don't care what he does compared to his position...does he fit the team's need? That's what I care about.

[sbrylski]

3. A .300 OBP is well below average, as is his OPS of .768. The average RFer hits .348 / .451 / .799.

 

This isn't a direct shot by any means on your post. It just drives me crazy to compare a RF on the Brewers to all the MLB RF. If we are better at other positions, it doesn't matter. You do not put a bat in a position based on stats like these. If you did, Braun would still be at 3b. It's a team game. You do not need a 1B that crushes the ball if other positions take care of that. It just doesn't make any sense to keep bringing this up IMO. Again, this isn't against your post, but it's been brought up a ton of bf.net. I don't care what he does compared to his position...does he fit the team's need? That's what I care about.

Well, Corey is a right fielder. If we compare him to other right fielders, we can figure out if he's an asset to our ballclub. Turns out he is not, regardless of who we have playing SS, or 1B, or who's in our bullpen. You have to compare stats to something to judge their worth, what would you compare it too?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I think Cole Gillespie will be a nice replacement to Hart in the coming years. I would not give Hart the long term contract. We have too many good looking OFers in AA right now to commit to a league average player. I'd go with upside, myself.

[rotoherb]

No it didn't start happening last year. All players have bad months, Hart had a bad July but even then his OBP was 60 points higher than his BA. He then went on to play August and September. In August he hit .313/.337/.542 and in September he hit .330/.381/.641.

 

Again his approach changed, he's walking and striking out at a lower rate while hitting fewer fly balls.

Based on the numbers that I looked up, I believe that his approach changed last season. Post all-star break last year he had a .048 walk rate, this year it's .043 for the entire season. Hart's OBP was 60 points higher than his BA in July of last year because he got plunked three times that month, his approach at the plate wasn't significantly better. His walk rate was still just .054 during that month. He actually was hit by a pitch 13 times last season compared to just five times this season in 100 more AB. That's something that I just noticed now, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's because Hart is being pitched away more this season as teams and pitchers realize he'll swing at those pitches and they don't have to come inside. That would also be a factor in his drop in power since fewer of those pitches on the outside are going to be hit for home runs.

 

As for where he's hitting the ball...

Hart in 2008 hit 33%FB, 43%GB 18%LD

Hart in 2007 hit 36%FB, 40%GB 17%LD

(stats courtesy of bp.com)

 

You're talking about a 3% diference out of 498 balls put in play, or roughly 15 batted balls, were ground balls this season instead of fly balls. I'd agree that it's something to investigate, but I wouldn't come to any conclusions based on just that.

 

He does have basically the same approach this season as he did for the second half of last season and this season is just a continuation of that. The only significant difference between this year and last year is his drop in slugging percentage. My opinion is that he's being pitched away form his power a lot more this year, more balls low and away, and that combined with a few more doubles going for triples and HR last season has caused the slugging dropoff. I completely agree that he's either been told or decided to swing at the first fastball in or near the strikezone. I just don't think that it's something that started this season, but instead is something he started doing last year. I think we'd need more pitch data so we could see if his approach has changed or if he's being pitched differently and that's causing the FB/GB/Power change. It's possible that he's taking a more cautious approach this season. I think it's also possible that mainly because of the way he's being pitched.

[TheCrew07]

I think Cole Gillespie will be a nice replacement to Hart in the coming years. I would not give Hart the long term contract. We have too many good looking OFers in AA right now to commit to a league average player. I'd go with upside, myself.

There is no way Gillespie has more upside than Hart... if you want upside in terms of athleticism Cain is probably it, and with the bat Gamel has greater offensive upside if he doesn't stick at 3B. IIRC Gillespie has a pigeon arm, which means he's a LF/reserve defensively, not a problem with Braun around as he can slide to RF, but again, Gillespie is what he is, while Hart is already in MLB and still has room to grow.

[Schlitz001]

Prime example of Hart's lack of patience in this game against the Cubs. Hardy walks on four straight balls and then Hart comes up with the bases loaded to swing and miss at three straight pitches out of the zone. Then Counsell comes to bat and has the presence of mind to take a walk on the next 4 pitches to drive in a run. Hart's not Estrada impatient, but let's at least take 1 pitch when the batter before you walks on 4 straight balls.

[bobskube]

I have been celebrating for over 3 hours now but we have to look at this fact. Corey Hart is killing this team right now. I wish we had Kapler, but what can you do?

[Ennder]

I said it in another thread but I'd start Gwynn or Nelson against Myers and let Hart face the lefties.

[brewjihad]

http://i375.photobucket.com/albums/oo194/jordanmader13/hart.jpg

 

 

[Gobias Industries]

Yikes, Gameday was being generous. Pitch 1 was a borderline strike (still not a strike). The other 2, not so much.

[fondybrewfan]

Hart has been awful but do we really have any other options. Obviously Gwynn would be fine playing right but he has no offensive potential at all. As bas as Hart is right now is still a much better offensive option than Gwynn. Man do I wish Kapler could play.

[trwi7]

Yikes, Gameday was being generous. Pitch 1 was a borderline strike (still not a strike). The other 2, not so much.

Yep, pitch two and three were way off the corner. Not even close to being strikes.

[Ennder]

Yesterday I was watching on gameday and on the radio they said a ball was in the dirt but on gameday it looked like it was too high. I think sometimes it is less than reliable.