Don't expect to see Hardy in the line-up tonight (hand injury) / Latest: will likely play (reply 83ish); tweak (reply 110ish)

[dhoffman19]

Haudricourt: Hardy might have hand injury

 

Update - no official comment, but it looks like something is up.

[chrisisoutrunning]

Haudricourt says that something might have happened, but they won't know for sure until J.J. reports to the park today.

 

Haudricourt: Hardy might have hand injury

 

 

(edit: added text to this link and to the link in the post above; that way members will know they're the same --1992)

[endaround]

Escobar's equivalents are almost certainly too high since his AA line was due to a BABIP of .375. That's just unsustainable. Counsell and Escobar have about the same level of power. Put Lamb or Branyan at 3B.

[TheCrew07]

Escobar's equivalents are almost certainly too high since his AA line was due to a BABIP of .375. That's just unsustainable. Counsell and Escobar have about the same level of power. Put Lamb or Branyan at 3B.

I would have agreed with that last offseason, but not any more.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

This brings up a decent point though. Why the heck hasn't Lamb been used at 3B? He's been playing 3B for a while and he can't be any worse than Counsell has been when you factor in his offense. I just don't understand big league managers.

[rluzinski]

"Are you going to tell me that there has never been a ML ball player that has put up better stats in the majors than he did in the minors? Not even for 3 days?"

 

There is a chasm of misunderstanding here.

 

The theory seems to be that since you can't predict what a player is going to do for 3 games, you might as well ignore his previous performance. No one knows Escobar's true major league offensive talent level right now. And over 12 AB, even if you knew his true talent level, random variance could make him go 0-12 or 12-12. Still, the powers that be have to make an educated guess at his expected performance and construct a lineup based on it. Whether there's a ton of uncertainty in that guess is mostly irrelevant, isn't it? It has just as good of a chance of being too high as too low.

 

This reminds me of the debate of having Weaver start over Bush, earlier in the year.

[uwisfan]

I think some of Escobar's BABIP is sustainable, merely because of his speed.

[uwisfan]

CC is good defensively and in spite of a putrid average, has a good OBP.

[rluzinski]

"This brings up a decent point though. Why the heck hasn't Lamb been used at 3B? He's been playing 3B for a while and he can't be any worse than Counsell has been when you factor in his offense."

 

I could be wrong but I believe Lamb has a reputation for having bad defense.

 

EDIT: Astro fans thought he stunk last year, defensively:

 

http://www.tangotiger.net...scoutResults2007_HOU.html

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

This reminds me of the debate of having Weaver start over Bush, earlier in the year.

Apples to Oranges. We are talking about the Organization's top prospect here and an injury to one of our key players. We aren't talking about an average pitcher underperforming and replacing him with a pitcher who's had success earlier in his career.

[rluzinski]

"Apples to Oranges. We are talking about the Organization's top prospect here and an injury to one of our key players. We aren't talking about an average pitcher underperforming and replacing him with a pitcher who's had success earlier in his career."

 

I meant only with regard to trying the unknown because something unexpected might happen. At this point, we'd expect Escobar to be a slick fielder who can't hit.

 

I think some of Escobar's BABIP is sustainable, merely because of his speed.

 

In the majors this year, there's only 3 players with at least 300 PA who have a BABIP of .375 or higher. That's incredibly high. And even if he earned that in AA, we'd still expect it to be lower at the meajor league level.

[kramnoj]

Slight tangent: based on the discussion here, I emailed Tom Haudricourt at 11:45 to see if he had heard anything. He responded at 12:29 that it was news to him and he would look into it.

 

It is odd that community members sometimes have better sources than beat guys. This is probably one of those times where the speed of the news isn't as important as the news itself. Whatever will be known would have been known by mid-afternoon anyway, we just got the scoop hours earlier because of the connectedness of the fans here with people in the know.

[endaround]

Sure some of his BABIP is sustainable, but not at a .375 level. A very good .340 means a 70 point loss in OPS before converting it to the major leagues.

 

Lamb is bad defensively, but unless Branyan can go its likely the best alternative as long as Sveum realizes that Hall is a defensive upgrade and is treated in game as such.

[GormanHarvey]

I really wish I knew for sure if Branyan was available defensively. I would love to see him at 3rd tonight - this team could use his pop with JJ out

[rluzinski]

"It is odd that community members sometimes have better sources than beat guys."

 

It seems to have happened a lot lately. Did Tom know that Gallardo was starting yesterday?

[dlk9s]

Frankly, if I were the manager, I wouldn't start Escobar over Counsell. I would not want to start a AA player, even if he might be the next coming of Ozzie Smith, in the sort of pressure-packed series that the team is about to play. Counsell's BA and power obviously stink, but his OBP is through the roof this month, and he's a very good defensive player. And as for intangibles, I know we make fun of "gritty" and all that, but he has a lot of experience in high pressure games, so I feel confident that the odds of Counsell screwing up are much lower than the odds of Escobar screwing up.

 

Hey, I'm excited to get Escobar on the field as much as anyone, but 2009 spring training is the appropriate place for his on-the-job training to begin.

[GormanHarvey]

Frankly, if I were the manager, I wouldn't start Escobar over Counsell. I would not want to start a AA player, even if he might be the next coming of Ozzie Smith, in the sort of pressure-packed series that the team is about to play. Counsell's BA and power obviously stink, but his OBP is through the roof this month, and he's a very good defensive player. And as for intangibles, I know we make fun of "gritty" and all that, but he has a lot of experience in high pressure games, so I feel confident that the odds of Counsell screwing up are much lower than the odds of Escobar screwing up.

 

Hey, I'm excited to get Escobar on the field as much as anyone, but 2009 spring training is the appropriate place for his on-the-job training to begin.

All valid points. To me, the fact of the matter is that Counsell will be starting one way or another tonight - whether it be at short or 3rd. So why not put Counsell at 3rd and Escobar at short? Considering the options: Hall at 3rd against a tough RHP, Lamb at 3rd who is left handed but apparently not too sharp defensively, or Branyan if he's available defensively, which I'm not too sure he is. At the very least you would have a strong defense on the left side of the infield against a team that pulls the ball quite a bit and Suppan who is usually a ground ball pitcher when right. Plus, should Escobar get on base, he has great speed.

[thebadge10]

I would start Counsell at third and Escobar at short against the rightie!

[chrisisoutrunning]

So from what I can tell, Branyan isn't able to play in the field, so we're down to picking two of Counsell, Escobar, Hall and Lamb.

 

So we're basically looking at one of the following combinations:

 

1. Counsell - 3B and Escobar - SS

2. Hall - 3B and Counsell - SS

3. Lamb - 3B and Counsell - SS

4. Hall - 3B and Escobar - SS

 

I highly doubt #4 and somewhat doubt #1, though that's probably the one I'd like to see. #2 would be putting Hall out against a righty he can't touch, and #3 would be putting the "worst" defensively of the four out there...

 

Ideas?

[nate82]

I really wish I knew for sure if Branyan was available defensively. I would love to see him at 3rd tonight - this team could use his pop with JJ out

I believe it was reported on Brewers Live that Branyan was only available to pinch hit.

[sbrylski]

#3 is the most likely scenario, Chris. Though what concerns me is the postseason - Lamb is ineligible. Might Branyan be back for next week?

[GormanHarvey]

I believe it was reported on Brewers Live that Branyan was only available to pinch hit.

Thats what I thought I heard - just couldn't remember for sure

[homer]

It is odd that community members sometimes have better sources than beat guys.

I don't think so. The beat guys typically have players and management as sources. The general public has everyone else. Whether that's Cindy in accounting that overheard something at lunch or Jake the intern who heard Ash on his cell phone or Bobby the clubhouse kid that saw a guy in the training room or Betty Sue who gets her nails done at the same place as Ben Sheets' wife.

[naivin]

If Hardy is done, in the interest of keeping this fun, exciting, loose, carefree, etc. etc., I say throw Escobar out there. I suspect the rest of the team would rally around him, as would the fans. Heck, even the Cubs might get a little kick out of seeing a kid get thrown into a situation like that. When you look at what is and has been going on with the pitching staff lately, why not? Counsell will still be there for the late innings, PH duty etc.

 

I must admit I do have a bit of a problem reconciling this with the RH pitcher we'll be facing, as well as Suppan pitching top contact, but what do we have to lose really? From a fans perspective, I say make this thing fun while you have the chance, and if we are gonna go down, go down in a serious blaze of glory. Would you rather lose on an Escobar error, or Counsell GIDP? Seriously

[Patrick425]

It's unlikely he would start September call-up Alcides Escobar, one of the organization's top prospects, because putting him in games of this importance would be tough on a young, inexperienced player.

Regardless of the what type of stats Escobar would put up argument, this quote from TH's blog is what just kills me.

 

What has happened to ballplayers over the last 20-30 years? It's laughable. Do they really need to have there hand held like this. Pitch counts, closers that can't go more than one inning, prospects that need 4-5 years "seasoning" before they can play in the Majors. It just sickens me. Would this stressful experience really cause great trauma to Escobar and endanger his ML career? Good grief! It's no wonder that Football fans laugh at baseball sometimes.