Don't expect to see Hardy in the line-up tonight (hand injury) / Latest: will likely play (reply 83ish); tweak (reply 110ish)

[Patrick425]

I'd be more concerned with how he handles probably not having the offensive skills yet to compete at the major league level.

There are a lot of guys out there that don't appear to have the offensive skills to compete at the ML level, yet they continue to get the opportunity. Again, if this Hardy thing is true, are the other options really that much better?

[GormanHarvey]

Defense seems pretty important to Sveum and rightfully so. I would think that when you lose your best defender (besides maybe Cam) that you would want to give Escobar a shot seeing he is considered a phenomenal defender. I have seen very few of his at bats, but in the ones that I saw he did not look overmatched.

[rluzinski]

"If this makes Counsell our starting SS, our team just got a lot worse. "

 

I can stomach his offense at SS a lot more and he's probably at least Hardy's defensive equal. Bell or Branyan are not going to be as good defensively at 3B as Counsell but Hardy's offensive line isn't that great:

 

.286/.346/.482 /.828

 

Is it confirmed that Branyan can't play the field? I think he could put up a line like that against righties, for sure. The offense will certainly take a hit against lefties, though,with Counsell in there.

[kramnoj]

"Just give it to Escobar for the next 3 games and see how he handles the pressure?"

 

I'd be more concerned with how he handles probably not having the offensive skills yet to compete at the major league level. He had a decent line in AA this year (.328/.363 /.434/.797) ut he isn't going to hit .328 here quite yet, IMO.

 

Strawman. Nobody here has hinted that Escobar should be playing because he should hit .328 over 3 games. I am concerned that a 21 year old starting his first major league games against the Cubs with the playoffs on the line might have some yips defensively.

[Dmiles23]

I'd be more concerned with how he handles probably not having the offensive skills yet to compete at the major league level. He had a decent line in AA this year (.328/.363 /.434/.797) ut he isn't going to hit .328 here quite yet, IMO.

It's 3 games! Does it really matter if he does/doesn't hit .328 in those 3 games? I just don't really see how numbers are relevant when looking at 3 games. In my opinion, missing Hardy is a big blow. And maybe you can catch lightning in a bottle and have Escobar play well for 3 days. I'd rather have Counsell/Escobar than Counsell/Lamb. At least the former is much better on D.

[GormanHarvey]

Is it confirmed that Branyan can't play the field? I think he could put up a line like that against righties, for sure. The offense will certainly take a hit against lefties, though,with Counsell in there.

 

That's what I thought I remembered reading or hearing, but I am not 100% sure. It could change due to circumstances. I would bet it is not Branyan saying he can't play the field.

[Invader3K]

The worse thing is that if Counsell plays shortstop, Bill Hall is your 3B by default, I guess. I think I'd rather see them try Escobar at SS for at least a start, and have Counsell at 3B.

[rluzinski]

Strawman. Nobody here has hinted that Escobar should be playing because he should hit .328 over 3 games. I am concerned that a 21 year old starting his first major league games against the Cubs with the playoffs on the line might have some yips defensively.

 

I wasn't saying that anyone wanted Escobar in there for his offensive talents. I was suggesting that his expected offense in the majors would be terrible. I specifically brought up his batting average because, if you adjust it to anything remotely reasonable for the majors, his line is terrible. He didn't walk much and had no power.

 

You are concerned about his nerves affecting his defense. I am more concerned about his offensive deficiencies.

 

It's 3 games! Does it really matter if he does/doesn't hit .328 in those 3 games? I just don't really see how numbers are relevant when looking at 3 games.

 

Whether it's 3 games or 162, I want the Brewers to put on the field the players they think gives them the best chance of winning.

 

So do know someone close to the team or something? I'm surprised TH or McCalvy doesn't have better sources than you do.

 

Someone PM'd me about this at 10:30 AM. might be the same guy. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Well Escobar would provide more power than Counsell. I believe he had 8 homers this year and I saw him homer at a Spring Training game this year. Also, he would provide better defense and more speed. The only thing Counsell has on him is his ability to walk a lot more.

 

Boy I hope this isn't true. Losing Hardy would be really bad.

[uwisfan]

there were several plays this past week that I couldnt help but think "If Escobare were there, he'd have that play" to some of JJs miscues where he either couldnt reach it or wasnt able to position himself well enough to play the ball better... even if he's a wash offensively with CC, I think he adds a new dimension to this team.

[Patrick425]

I specifically brought up his batting average because, if you adjust it to anything remotely reasonable for the majors, his line is terrible.

Adjust it using what? Baseball is not played on paper or in a simulation model, it's played out on the field. I recall the Brewers being a 87% chance of making the playoffs earlier in the month. What are the odds now? Does it matter?

 

I understand the need for having stats and using them to evaluate players. However, I think some people take it way to far sometimes. Believe it or not there are things that happen on the field that can not be measured in statistical terms.

[jhart05]

I vote for Escobar. Especially with the ground ball pitcher Suppan going tonight.

 

Let's see that "best glove in the minors".

 

If he does have the "yips" early, you can always pull him out of the game.

[kramnoj]

You are concerned about his nerves affecting his defense. I am more concerned about his offensive deficiencies.

 

The expected offensive contribution from Escobar and Counsell is basically negligible, especially in 3 games, right? For someone who wrote that CC's expected contribution to the Brewers was going to be a couple of wins, there has to be almost no difference between Escobar and Counsell. That basically leaves their defense. Escobar is projected to be a guy that is at the top of his position, a +20 or something like that. I would think he has to have the most projected value over the next 3 games and beyond if neccessary.

 

Edit: Adjust it using what? Baseball is not played on paper or in a simulation model, it's played out on the field.

 

If someone has better knowledge, I'm sure they will correct me, but as I understand it, translation tools look at past players performance in the minors and then how they did in the majors. Once you get a large enough sample, you can provide some translations of what a player does in the minors compared to what they will do in the majors. There's also enough data to look at minor league park factors

 

understand the need for having stats and using them to evaluate players. However, I think some people take it way to far sometimes.

 

Information is a tool. There is nothing wrong with any tool, it just matters how it is used.

 

Believe it or not there are things that happen on the field that can not be measured in statistical terms.

 

Can you provide an example of something that you have witnessed that can't be measured in statistical terms? Everything that happens is measured. The only thing that matters is how you use the measurements of what happened when making future decisions.

[Dmiles23]

Whether it's 3 games or 162, I want the Brewers to put on the field the players they think gives them the best chance of winning.

3 games are a LOT different than 162. A player can get lucky over 3 games and hit well. Heck, if Escobar gets 12 ABs the rest of the way, 3 hits puts him at .312 for the season. So does that mean he's a .300+ hitter? No. So I just don't understand how you saying that you can't expect him to hit .328. Hardy is a big bat missing from the lineup. So why not try the unknown?

[rluzinski]

I specifically brought up his batting average because, if you adjust it to anything remotely reasonable for the majors, his line is terrible.

Adjust it using what? Baseball is not played on paper or in a simulation model, it's played out on the field.

Adjust it to anything you want to, as long as it's way down. He won't be facing 19 year old minor leaguers, so he wouldn't be expected to bat anything near that. I'm not using advanced metrics to come to that conclusion, just common sense. Rant at krom if you need to, as he was the one to cite his minor league translations.

 

And the "the game is played on the field!" rant just has to stop. I wonder if airline pilots yell at aeronautical engineers, "planes aren't flown on paper, they are flown in the air by people!" There are a million factors I'm not accounting for. I'm just trying to make a guess at his expected production with what we actually know.

[GormanHarvey]

That basically leaves their defense. Escobar is projected to be a guy that is at the top of his position, a +20 or something like that. I would think he has to have the most projected value over the next 3 games and beyond if neccessary.

I agree. If they are so enamored with Counsell, put him at 3rd, although I would like to see Russell if he's healthy enough

[OglivieHomePerm]

I don't think it really matters because Sveum will go with the gritty veteran like most MLB managers do. I'd go with talent if I were him, but I highly doubt it will happen.

 

Agree. We can talk about the merits of Escobar at Short for 5 or 6 more pages, but I think it is moot. If hardy can't go, Counsell is getting the call, whether we agree with it or not. I just don't see any way in which Sveum will do something as bold as starting Escobar at short.

[Blancofan1]

I agree with the general consensous of starting Escobar. I would prefer if JJ played, but I'm not going to doubt GormanHarvey, hopefully it could possibly just be out for the one night.

 

Batter vs. Pitcher for the year

Bill hall vs Dempster--0-9, 4 K's, 1 GIDP

Craig Counsell vs Dempser--2-3

JJ Hardy vs Dempster--1-10, 1 K, 1 BB

3TO--hasn't faced Dempster this year, but is 0-3 lifetime with 3 K's and 1 BB

 

I would give just about anything to see Hall not in the lineup tonight with those stats.

 

edit to add Branyan's statline

[Fatter than Joey]

I'm quite sure Homer was being ironical.

 

Homer is bad at being ironical.

[GormanHarvey]

Anyone know how Lamb is considered defensively?

[Patrick425]

I'm just wondering why they play the MLB championship season at all in the first place. Why not just take all the rosters and stats on opening day, run them through some simulation model and crown the WS winner right there and then?

 

Are you going to tell me that there has never been a ML ball player that has put up better stats in the majors than he did in the minors? Not even for 3 days? Not sure, but I believe Albert Pujols is one example.

[Fatter than Joey]

Why not just take all the rosters and stats on opening day, run them through some simulation model and crown the WS winner right there and then?

 

You lose the opportunity to sell all sorts of hot dogs.

[rluzinski]

The expected offensive contribution from Escobar and Counsell is basically negligible, especially in 3 games, right?

 

My concern with Escobar's expected offense has to do with facing a RH pitchers. I was comparing Escobar's expected production to the 3B alternative, as Counsell will be in there regardless. Tonight, Counsell will be starting at SS or 3B but you can count on him starting! Against lefties, you could easily make an argument for Escobar.

 

"3 games are a LOT different than 162. A player can get lucky over 3 games and hit well. Heck, if Escobar gets 12 ABs the rest of the way, 3 hits puts him at .312 for the season. So does that mean he's a .300+ hitter? No. So I just don't understand how you saying that you can't expect him to hit .328. Hardy is a big bat missing from the lineup. So why not try the unknown?"

 

Are you saying that since it's so few ABs, random variance could make his production anything, so it doesn't matter what his projected offensive performance is?

[liveforoctober]

First off ... I'm not believing anything until it is confirmed. Nothing against the guy who started the thread... but rumors can come from anywhere.

 

Secondly, we can do a lot worse than Counsell's .355 OBP. Only Fielder and Durham have a higher OBP among people who play regularly. If Sveum just leaves Counsell in Hardy's lineup slot ... I have a problem, cause he has no power... but if you bat him 2nd ahead of Braun and Fielder... I really have no problem with it.

[TheCrew07]

My vote is Escobar, but I bet they go with Counsell.