How many Sabathia innings could have been saved?

[DougJones43]

Let's pretend for a moment that a pitcher compiling as many complete games as possible wasn't that important in the grand scheme of things (I know, doesn't require much pretending -- they're really not that important). Let's also pretend for a moment that Ned Yost actually considered the ramifications of running a pitcher into the ground during games that were already decided (I know, impossible to imagine him not being a complete dullard).

 

Anyway, I wanted to look through CC's starts with the Brewers, and find out how many innings could have been saved if he had been pulled from games at reasonable times.

 

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July 18, MIL @ SF: Brewers won the game easily 9-1. They had a 6-0 lead entering the 8th inning. Sabathia could have been pulled there. The Brewers scored 3 more in the 9th, and led 9-1 (not even a shutout for CC anymore), but CC pitched the 9th. He probably should have been pulled after the 7th, definitely after the 8th. Verdict: 1 to 2 unnecessary innings

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August 8, WAS @ MIL: Brewers had a strong 5-0 lead after 7 innings. The Nationals offense is pretty offensive, and didn't exactly pose much of a threat to storm back. CC pitches the distance anyway. Verdict: 2 unnecessary innings

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August 13, MIL @ SD: Brewers led 7-1 after 5 innings. Sabathia pitched 7 innings, and threw 114 pitches. I know our bullpen had been shakey, but it didn't seem necessary to push him through that 7th inning, up by 6 runs against a bad San Diego team. Verdict: 0 to 1 unnecessary innings

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August 18, HOU @ MIL: This was the worst one in my opinion. No shutout, not a close game, and yet Ned insists on leaving CC on the mound to throw a whopping 130 pitches. Brewers led 7-2 after the 6th, and 8-2 after the 7th. Given his high pitch count, he could have been pulled after 6 IP, and should under no circumstances have gone past 7 IP. Verdict: 2 to 3 unnecessary innings

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August 31, MIL @ PIT: This was the potential no-hitter. Brewers win easily, but you can't mess with somebody who has a chance at a no hitter. Verdict: No harm, no foul

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Overall, it looks as though up to 8 innings could have been easily shaved off of Sabathia's total during just this second-half of the season. That means he essentially pitched a full extra game for no real reason. Also notice that 3 of the starts in question came back-to-back-to-back. That most likely added even more stress being bunched together like that in a 10-day period, and is just totally unacceptable management of a starting pitcher.

 

It's all fine and dandy that the Brewers decided to abuse his arm since they wouldn't be re-signing him, but did anybody stop to consider the effect it might have on Sabathia later on this year when we needed him most, during a playoff chase?

 

He pitched two of his least effective games in his two outings before tonight. It would be difficult to prove a correlation between those poor starts and Ned's abuse of him, but it sure seems like you'd want to err on the side of caution when it comes to keeping somebody as potentially dominant as CC Sabathia ready to go at full strength during September. A good portion of the abuse of Sabathia was totally preventable.

[igor67]

The August 18th game was the only game where Sabathia was left in long enough to have been potentially troublesome. It's not like we can magically take these 8 innings off and squeeze them into another start at the end of the year. Odds are pretty good he's going to pitch 3 consecutive starts on short rest, and it does not follow at all that what you assert to be extra innings would some how carry over now. There were many problems with the way Ned handled his pitchers, but Sabathia was not generally over worked except for that one start.

[lcbj68c]

I agree igor. 3 days rest is 3 days rest, regardless of what you did 3 months ago.

[BrewerTerp]

Sabathia is a big boy. He can handle that work, and he has proved that. Saving innings here and there really doesn't mean much.

[JJHardy7]

CC pitched a ton for the Indians too. The Brewers should pitch CC as much as possible. They gave up some big time prospects for him (depending on the PTBNL) and if CC is the best option to pitch he should pitch.

[joepepsi]

Counting the playoffs CC pitched 256+ innings in 2007. He's at 244 this year and arguably having the best season of his career. If the Brewers don't make the playoffs he will have pitched less this year than last. He did look worn out during the playoffs last year, but it's hard to argue all those innings last year have had any long term affect.

[rluzinski]

There's little proof either way, so why not just be cautious and not pitch him when he isn't needed? There is evidence that pitchers in general wear down to some degree. I don't see why you chance it in blowouts.

 

It's a fan mentality to fear losing a 4+ run lead late. Yeh, it sucks when it happens but the odds of it are so low that that you really shouldn't make decisions based on trying to avoid it. Still just one loss. Save a starting pitcher's tank for when he's needed in a close game.

[monty57]

Melvin made an interesting point on a Brewers 360 a few weeks ago, when this subject was being discussed. He feels that number of pitches per inning is much more important than total number of pitches or total number of innings. He compared it to weight lifting in that the arms is much more stressed on the later reps than on the earlier reps. In weight lifting, it's much easier to do five reps of ten than it is to do two reps of 25, even though you're doing fifty reps either way. He, at least at that time, wasn't worried about CC's use, as he wasn't throwing very many pitches per inning.

This may lead to why someone like Harden has more arm troubles, as he regulary throws 100 pitches through 5 or 6 innings, leading to greater stress on his arm than someone like CC who throws 100 pitches through 8 or 9 innings.

[joepepsi]

That makes sense to me.

 

Jim Palmer has said pitchers in his era threw more complete games and pitched more innings per year in part because they were more efficient and tended to pitch to contact, letting the defense make the outs. Exactly why this has changed over time, if in fact it even has, is unclear. Do today's pitcher's monkey around more, wasting more pitches, have hitting approaches changed to taking more pitches, has expansion and 13 man pitching staffs put more crappy arms in MLB?

[Ennder]

That makes sense to me.

 

Jim Palmer has said pitchers in his era threw more complete games and pitched more innings per year in part because they were more efficient and tended to pitch to contact, letting the defense make the outs. Exactly why this has changed over time, if in fact it even has, is unclear. Do today's pitcher's monkey around more, wasting more pitches, have hitting approaches changed to taking more pitches, has expansion and 13 man pitching staffs put more crappy arms in MLB?

Hitters got better is a lot of it. You no longer have terrible hitting SS/2B on every team.

 

To use 1976 as an example which is the middle of his career. The average hitter had a line of .255/.320/.361/.681.

In 2008 the average hitter has a line of .264/.333.416/.749.

 

The worst offense in baseball by OPS this season is Oakland who has a .685 OPS. They have scored 4.00 R/G.

[southpaw121505]

CC pitched a ton for the Indians too. The Brewers should pitch CC as much as possible.

And how did he do in the playoffs?

[pitchleague]

That makes sense to me.

 

Jim Palmer has said pitchers in his era threw more complete games and pitched more innings per year in part because they were more efficient and tended to pitch to contact, letting the defense make the outs. Exactly why this has changed over time, if in fact it even has, is unclear. Do today's pitcher's monkey around more, wasting more pitches, have hitting approaches changed to taking more pitches, has expansion and 13 man pitching staffs put more crappy arms in MLB?

this is probably one of the main reasons that the MLB strikeout record by Walter Johnson lasted all the way up until the mid-1980s.

 

Of course, it doesn't explain Nolan Ryan and his K and BB records and all his innings. Maybe because he started out as a reliever?