Solving third base.

[clancyphile]

At this point, I am going to base this thread on the following facts:

1. Bill Hall is not an every-day player. At best, he is the right half of a platoon at any of six positions (2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF)

2. Craig Counsell is no more than a backup IF/pinch-runner.

3. Russell Branyan is unable to stay healthy for a 162-game season.

4. Joe Dillon is too unknown.

 

The way I see it, the Brewers have three options:

 

1. Trade - The real risk is not so much in who could be acquired, it is who the Brewers would have to give up, particularly if Sheets and Sabathia are gone. This should be the last-resort option, if you ask me. There are better options.

 

2. Free agency - The Brewers could have some options. Greg Norton is old, but for a year, he may be worth the risk until Mat Gamel is ready in 2010. Solid OBP/SLG. Ramon Vazquez is another choice, being 32, batting left-handed, and also can play short and second. That said, 2008 looks suspiciously like a career year. Nomar Garciaparra's 2008 looks like Bill Hall's. We already have a Bill Hall on the roster, named Bill Hall. Casey Blake looks to be the best option. but he will be looking for a multi-year deal, and the Brewers just need to fill third base for one year, maybe two at the most, until Mat Gamel is ready to play third. So, if overpaying or a long contract is what the Brewers want, they can go the free agent route.

 

3. In-house - Multiple options here: One is to throw Mat Gamel out there. The benefits: He has the stick. He's left-handed, and he has power. The cons: He may not be ready for 2009, his defense is a question mark, and he isn't likely to be an OBP machine early on. Option two is Joe Dillon. He has OBP skills, and might be a good #2 hitter, and in limited action has looked good. That said, he may just be AAAA, and to be honest, the Brewers have a #2 hitter who is doing okay - his name is JJ Hardy. Option three is Bill Hall. He has pop, but his OBP stinks. Option four is Ryan Braun. Great bat, young, athletic. Can't field at third, though. Option five is Russell Branyan. Power, check. Decent glove, check. OBP skills - OK. Lots of Ks, and he can't stay healthy.

 

If I were calling the shots, I'd go with the following course of action:

1. I exercise the team option on Mike Cameron, and try to negotiate a two-year extension. That locks center field down for three more years, and gives the Brewers some great defense.

2. I would sign Mark Kotsay to a three-year deal for about $8 million ($2 million bonus, $2 million per year) as a backup outfielder. He's a professional hitter, plays all three OF positions, and he is a solid backup, who doesn't emabrrass himself on a regular basis. He's also probably not going to hurt the Crew compensation-wise.

3. During spring training, Mat Gamel gets first crack to take the third-base job. If he needs another year at AAA due to problems hitting MLB pitching, then I would move Braun to third for a year, and risk going with Kotsay in left.

 

What would y'all do?

[pitchleague]

Ramon Vazquez was very one-sided this year, like Hall. I'll agree, I think it was career-year-ish for him.

 

I'd let Gamel at least go at it in Spring Training against Hall and whoever else they have (Dillon, etc.) and see what comes out. What have they got to lose, really? They played Braun and his atrocious defense for 3/4 of a season at the hot corner, so why not Gamel?

[dadofandrew]

Blalock on a one year deal.

[clancyphile]

Ramon Vazquez was very one-sided this year, like Hall. I'll agree, I think it was career-year-ish for him.

 

I'd let Gamel at least go at it in Spring Training against Hall and whoever else they have (Dillon, etc.) and see what comes out. What have they got to lose, really? They played Braun and his atrocious defense for 3/4 of a season at the hot corner, so why not Gamel?

Gamel is another masher. He is also young - and with the small-sample OBP of .304 in Nashville, it's very likely he may not perform well against major-league pitching in 2009. 2010, I figure he puts up Cameron-like offensive numbers, minus the steals, but in 2009, we could be looking at a left-handed Hall with bad defense.

 

I am OK with giving him a shot, but if he struggles in spring training, I'm putting Braun at third.

[LouisEly]

(See: JJ Hardy long-term thread)

[clancyphile]

Blalock on a one year deal.

If his team option is exercised, the Brewers don't get him.

[DougJones43]

http://img131.imageshack.us/img131/7884/bellim7.jpg

 

 

Either this, or we'll use an old clancy idea -- move Hart back to 3B!

[rluzinski]

"What have they got to lose, really? They played Braun and his atrocious defense for 3/4 of a season at the hot corner, so why not Gamel? "

 

Braun negated a huge portion of his offensive value by being so bad defensively. Gamel could be just as bad defensively but it would be almost impossible for him to match Braun's rookie offensive production. Gamel easily could be a net negative.

 

I don't know what the answer is but Gamel at 3B in 2009 doesn't seem like a good one to me.

[clancyphile]

"What have they got to lose, really? They played Braun and his atrocious defense for 3/4 of a season at the hot corner, so why not Gamel? "

 

Braun negated a huge portion of his offensive value by being so bad defensively. Gamel could be just as bad defensively but it would be almost impossible for him to match Braun's rookie offensive production. Gamel easily could be a net negative.

 

I don't know what the answer is but Gamel at 3B in 2009 doesn't seem like a good one to me.

I think there is a very good chance you are right. The real question is, then, what realistic options are there at third? The best of the options I see is Braun at third for a year, and pray that Gamel can hold it down in 2010.

[rluzinski]

There is no way Melvin moved Braun to LF this year to just move him back to 3B the next year. Braun has been from OK to good in LF this year. Melvin isn't going to yank him around anymore.

[mls4]

Based on these options, I think they will have to look at a trade. Can we explore any trade options in this thread, or do we have to save that for the transaction rumors section?

[dlk9s]

There is no way Melvin moved Braun to LF this year to just move him back to 3B the next year. Braun has been from OK to good in LF this year. Melvin isn't going to yank him around anymore.

I agree. I can't see any way Braun will go back to third. He was bad there last season and won't be any better (probably worse) after having not played the position in a year. He has the potential to be a very good outfielder.

 

Norton might actually be a decent stop-gap, and he'd be cheap. Switch hitter, too. I really don't know if he'd be any good as an every day 3B, though, or if he's better as a bench player.

[Blancofan1]

I would love to see Casey Blake on a 3 year contract. He could be penciled in to start for at least 2009 and be at worst a great bench option for the next 2 seasons. On the other hand, I don't think we could get him in on a 3 year deal that would be financially responsible. It never hurts to dream.

[uwisfan]

Braun never had the range at third that Gamel apparently has. Both had terribly high error totals, but Gamel has more upside.

[endaround]

Blake is 35. No way do you give him anything close to a 3 year deal.

[Never Outhustled]

Mike Lamb has hit well as a platoon starter at 3B in the past, and would be incredibly cheap for us, as the Twins will still be paying him next year. Now they just have to find a cheaper righthanded hitter than Hall to platoon with him. Josh Fields seems to have fell out of favor with the Sox, in large part because he can't touch rightthanded pitching, but he does mash lefties.

 

An option in trade is Tampa Bay reserve 3B Willy Aybar. The 25 yearold switch hitter has a 742 OPS this year. His OBA is down this year but its 358 for his career. He's had some off field incidents in the past, but to the best of my knowledge has kept his nose clean this year.

[truecrew]

The Mike Lamb option is a good one he has done well so far with limited playing time. If he could hold down the spot in a platoon situation till Gamel is ready that could work.

[Nottso]

Pray heavily for Corey Koskie.

[Roderick]

Gamel easily could be a net negative.

I don't think we should assume the Brewers will allocate the cash to not be a net negative at a position or two. So it may be a case of which scenario will be the least net negative per dollar. I don't want to rush Gamel, but he has to be on the possibilities list, especially if the Brewers go hard for a pricey pitcher and retain Cameron.

[DHonks]

I'm thinking it's Mike Lamb for next year. His obp skills would be nice. If Rottino had been good offensively in Nashville, I'd say that he could even get a look at 3b (since all the other catching prospects are bypassing him

[jeffy]

Now they just have to find a cheaper righthanded hitter than Hall to platoon with him (Lamb).

 

Then what do you do with Hall? Someone will have to pay his salary, is it not pretty likely be the Brewers paying much of it, whether or not they keep him?

[Teatoe993]

Moving Braun back to 3B seems insane to me. He was historically bad at 3B in 2007. What makes anyone think that he'll be serviceable there? Especially when he hasn't played there in over a year. I don't think we could have asked Braun to do anymore in LF than he has done this year. Last time I checked, he still hasn't had an error. He is in no way a gold glover yet. But he is not a liability out there. Leave him where he is.

I'm just not sold on Gamel being the long term or short term solution at 3B either. I have yet to see the man play the position. But his numbers and others' opinions seem to make the case that he is a below average fielder. Maybe not Braun bad, but still bad. Is that what the Brewers really need? Our infield defense has been atrocious the past couple years. Why would we plug in another bad defensive 3B in there? Gamel's bat is gonna give him his shot. I'd just rather the Brewers end the 3B experiment and move him to a position (OF, 1B) where he won't be a liability.

The only in-house option that makes any sense to me is moving Hardy to 3B. He should be average to above average with the glove. What worries me is will his production with the bat be sufficient enough for a 3B? It will probably be a bit below average when compared to the rest of the league. But when you consider the enormous black hole that 3B has been production-wise this year for the Brewers, his bat will be a welcome addition. The only other options would be to ride out Hall's contract and hope he figures it out. But that seems like suicide to me. Lamb is another option but it really doesn't make me salivate at all thinking about it. And I guess that Weeks could be moved to 3B too, but I am really reaching here.

The only other options are to sign a FA (which nobody available seems like a perfect fit) or acquire somebody in a trade. And who knows who is available and obtainable on the trade market. Only the front office knows those answers.

Just my opinions. But it will make for an interesting offseason.

[nate82]

Joe Crede could be a possibility also. I believe this is his last year with the White Sox? I believe he could come rather cheap compared to Blalock. Blalock is younger though and a left handed bat.

 

The best option is if Hardy accepts a move over to 3B. Or if the Brewers could land a AAAA type of a player in a deal that sends Hardy for a young starting pitcher.

[bjkrautk]

I think that answering the 3b question starts over at 1b. If Prince is traded in the off-season, that opens up a spot (either in 2009 or 2010) for Gamel. If Fielder stays, Gamel will get more of a look at 3b (unless he proves that he doesn't belong there...but I don't think that one more year will be enough to demonstrate that, as long as the bat plays).

 

The solution that makes the most sense to me is moving Hardy (or Escobar if Hardy really won't move....yes I realize that doesn't maximize Escobar's value, but I'd like to see him hit ML pitching before trading either player) to 3b. Hardy's surprising power numbers (20 HR's in each of the past two years) would put his OPS on-par with Cirillo's numbers in the 90s; I'm willing to accept that. But I wouldn't want to move either player for just one year, so it comes back to where Gamel plays.

[JohnBriggs12]

Why not Mike Lamb? His numbers for the Astros in 06 and 07 were terrific: .307/.361/.475 in 06 (381 AB) and 07: .289/.366/.453 (311 AB's). He's gone from a defensive liability early in his career to become at least adequate at 3rd and versatile enough to have played some OF and a lot of 1B. Besides, the Twins still owe him $3.5 million next year, so he's cheap to the Brewers.

 

A platoon of Lamb and Hall has a chance to be quite productive. Lamb seems very comfortable in the NL Central.