Fielder and Escobar for Halliday, Rolen, and Overbay

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

This trade makes so much sense in my head it hurts. It accomplishes three main off-season goals:

 

1) Acquire a frontline starter

2) Get max value for Fielder

3) Gives the team a chance to 'reload" and contend in 2009 and 2010.

 

Rolen is signed for 2 more years (2009 and 2010). We almost acquired him for this season, and he could be counted upon to put up a .260/.350/.800 line with outstanding defense. We platoon Overbay/Gamel at 1B (yes I know this requires moving Gamel, but he can't be a worse defender than Fielder).

 

Escobar, in the short term, isn't in the Brewers plans. He might become extremely valuable in the future because of his defense, if his bat picks up, but we already have an elite SS. Why trade an elite SS to make room for someone that MIGHT be good.

 

Halliday is owed $14.25 million in 2009 and 15.75 million in 2010. Significant money, but for a top of the line starter, a two year commitment is pretty optimal.

Halliday/Yo/Parra/Bush/Soup is a playoff worthy rotation

With power from Hardy, Braun, Cameron, (and possibly Gamel), we get some OBP guys Overbay, Rolen

 

Why Toronto Makes this trade:

1) They get an elite 1B/DH (hole)

2) They get a possibly elite SS (big hole)

3) They shed some salary

 

Why Milwaukee Makes this trade

1) Because of his age/salary, it will take more to get Matt Cain than Halliday

2) Because the Brewers want to reload and not regress in 2009

3) With our 4 picks in 08, and 4 comp picks in 09, we can reload for when Cameron/Halliday/Rolen come off the books in 2011

[paul253]

I'd be fine with this deal, although I don't see the point in platooning Overbay and Gamel. Why not just let Gamel learn how to play first base in Nashville?

 

It is a lot of money to Halladay, and he seems to miss a lot of starts, but without Sheets and Sabathia, we need someone. Plus, his contract expires the same time Suppan's does, so after the 2010 season that'd be a lot of money coming off the books and hopefully by then we'd actually have some decent pitching prospects to replace them. Jeffress should be ready by then and Gallardo and Parra will still be around.

 

The only problem I see with this deal is that it doesnt leave a whole lot of money this offseason for bullpen help. It would also make it tough to pickup the option on Cameron, although I am fine with that assuming the find a suitable replacement.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Halladay has pitched 220, 225 and 237 innings the last 3 years, I don't know if that means he's durable, or if he's on the verge of breaking down. That being said, he's a more than suitable replacement for Sabathia.

 

Overbay and Rolen don't exactly excite me, as neither hits for a whole lot of power, and Rolen's really on the decline. The crew would be picking up a lot of salary in this deal, without giving up much salary in return. If the Jays would pick up a chunk of Rolen's, I might look a little more favorably on it.

[dadofandrew]

Rolen had close to negative value last year, as he was dealt for a problem in Glaus. Overbay is a good stop gap, but not much better than a FA pickup like Hatteberg, and much spendier. Hence, Prince and Alcides for Halladay...I like getting pre-FA guys if I'm trading pre-FA guys. That deal would add payroll, add age (which makes the team more injury prone), and as RCB pointed out, rest almost entirely on the arm of a guy who is very good, but has thrown 700 innings since 2006, and ain't getting any younger.

 

I'd much rather focus on adding guys like Ian Snell and Adam LaRoche if trades of the core are made.

[BrewCrewForever]

Not a bad trade. Of course it would only be worth it if we know we can keep Hardy long term.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

if Rolen is a "negative", why don't we add Billy Hall going to TOR then? Rolen had a .350 OBP this season in a "terrible" year.

 

Two years of Roy is worth 3 years of Prince + Escobar. Overbay was an extremely popular player here, and would be again. Rolen would be a good PR move as the casual fan probably still considers him to be an above average 3B (which i'd argue he still is)

 

The .360-.380 OBP, .800 OPS players are EXACTLY who we need to target right now, and both O and Rolen fit this. We might be able to find mid-level FA that are servicable (rather than acquire O & Rolen) , but at what financial cost, and for how long of a deal?

 

Braun's contract kicks in about 2011, as would a Hardy extention, Yo arbitration, etc. As pointed out in the Sabathia/Sheets discussions, the problem financially isn't the next year or two, its in 2011 and 2012 when the "core" gets raises from contract extentions.

 

EDIT: I competely agree that this is based on signing JJ long term. In addition to being an extremely popular player, Hardy is an elite SS. We don't move "elite" SS to another position for prospects.

[fleehaw]

Two years of Roy is worth 3 years of Prince + Escobar.

I'd rather have 3 years of Fielder and 6 years of Escobar than Halladay.

 

The Brewers are a small market team and it's generally unwise for small market teams to move their cheap, young talent for expensive vets (albeit very good ones) on the wrong side of 30.

 

It does make complete sense for the Brewers to shop some of their players entering arbitration (Fielder, Hart, Hardy, etc.). You trade players you have replacements for (like Hardy after '09) for cheap, major league ready/near ready talent. This is one model of how small market teams can be successful year in, year out.

[TheCrew07]

I don't see how this deal makes the team appreciably better in 09? It's basically a deal for 3 "names", while Halladay is a stud, the other 2 have little value to the crew. Rolen wouldn't be any better than what we got from 3rd base this year, and I'm comfortable saying he'd be worse, Overbay is obviously a step down from Fielder, and Halladay would essentially replace Sabathia. Like Al said I wouldn't mind O as a stop gap, the problem is that there's no 1B close to Milwaukee to replace him, which makes him a long term solution. If the Brewers are going to spend 17 million on Halladay, I'd rather they make a run at Sabathia and see if he'd take 20 over 5, but I highly doubt that's realistic.

 

Aquiring players on the decline in O and Rolen with an expensive pitcher in Halladay is exactly the opposite deal that I'd be in favor of. I'd want a young pitcher and players that have some upside, but that's just my opinion. I'm not against dealing Fielder, I just don't like this particular deal.

 

Someone posted it earlier this summer, but I really like the idea of signing Teixeira and trading Fielder... Fielder for Shields in 2009~! (no I'm not giving up on Fielder for Shields yet) I'd much rather have money tied up in bats than in the BP and aging SP...

[dadofandrew]

Rolen is below average for a 3B the past 2 years. That would seem to indicate his prime is past. Add that to his injury prone-ness, he still would only be a good pickup if TOR or SL paid much of his salary.

 

Why does a MLB team care what a casual fan thinks...they'll only show up if the team wins.

 

Overbay is a below average 1B, and as I pointed out, is not much better than a free talent guy like Scott Hatteberg, and far more expensive. He's several wins behind Prince, even giving Lyle credit for defense.

 

2 years of Halladay is worth 3 years of Prince? Possibly, but when you add 6 or 6.5 years of a phenom like Escobar to the mix, I just don't see it.

[TheCrew07]

Two years of Roy is worth 3 years of Prince + Escobar. Overbay was an extremely popular player here, and would be again. Rolen would be a good PR move as the casual fan probably still considers him to be an above average 3B (which i'd argue he still is)

I don't care what metric you use, there is no way 2 years of Halladay is worth more win shares than Fielder for 3 and Escobar for 7. Hardy is without a doubt my favorite Brewer, but I'd be willing to give him up if the net result meant that the Brewers were a better team in 2009. I feel the same way about Fielder, if the net result is a +, I'm in. I don't disagree with the premise you're working with(OBP), I'm just not a fan of the players you chose for the reasons I already stated.

 

Rolen was way below average last year, his OPS+ was 89, he's rebounded with a 104 so far this season... however he's not an everyday 3B anymore, he played in 112 games last year and has played 110 so far this season. His OPS hasn't been over 800 since 2006 and all of his power numbers have dropped drastically in the last 2 years... from 30ish HR a year through 2004 down to 8 in '07 and 10 in '08. For comparison sake in his last "good" season in 2006 he hit 22. You are correct that he still has an excellent eye at the plate, but his OBP isn't enough to get excited me about the rest of his game or taking on his contract.

 

I'd rather stick Gamel out there right now than aquire Rolen, I feel that strongly about Rolen's decline. Again I'm not into aquiring "name" players because we're paying more for the name than the player's current relative value.

[Invader3K]

I really dislike this trade. Overbay and Rolen wouldn't be that useful for the Crew, and they'd be giving up a ton in Escobar and Fielder. I like the creativity you used to come up with this one, but I think I'd pass.

[ILuvDaBush]

I think I would become a Blue Jays fan with that lineup next year. Lind/Snider/Rios/Wells....with Prince and Escobar, to boot. What's that aboot? POWER! Or as their cross border rivals exclaim, "Pow-A."

[JohnBriggs12]

Rolen and Overbay are both below average players at this point and you'd have nothing from this deal after two seasons except a lot of wasted money. Rolen in particular is way overpaid. I'm sure the Jays would love for someone to take them.

 

Once again, we have to realize that Escobar is not your normal prospect but a potential star at a prime position. You cannot deal him for below average players or two year rentals.

[Postseason2006]

Wouldn't Nelson offer us more than OB at this point?

[dadofandrew]

If Nelson hits like Overbay, I'd be thrilled. He has only hit like Lyle in AAA once, while repeating the same level...again.

 

P2006 does make a point, however, what's more valuable, Brad's 750 OPS for $400K or Lyle's 800 OPS for whatever he's making, about $6-7M, I think.

[jackalope02ca]

Don't like this one at all. It would essentially be Fielder and Escobar for Halliday and that's too much. Overbay and Rolen wouldn't help us and are just added salaries that would need to be paid. There's a better deal out there than this.