Hardy & Hart / long term

[jhpc12]

I know the detractors here are looking for a new beginning. Trade players sign others and reduce players playing time.

 

But according to the Cincinnati broadcasters they have heard rumors just like everyone else. Hardy gone to make room for Escabar. Hart signed to a long term deal over the winter.

 

If that is not the case with JJ do you believe that he is a year to year player or do we sign him long term. Year to year is probably going to cost in the neighborhood of 3.5-4 million dollars. What do you see him getting if he signed long term. I see 4 years in the 20-24 million dollsar deal and a club 5th year option around 8.5-10 million.

 

As far as Corey goes even with his low OBP if he abertrates one year in the 3 million dolar range sounds about right to me. If they long term him I think looking at other right fielders he probably will get somewhere in the ball park of 4 years 30-35 million with a club option on the 5th year around the same as JJ 8.5-10 million.

 

What is the lustrous panel of Brewerfan opinion on this.

[lcbj68c]

The financial numbers are irrelevant to me. They are both talented ballplayers and I'd like to see each signed to a long term contract. Whether it is $25 million or $30 million, 3 years or 4 years, $250k bonus or not, performance bonuses or no is just menial chatter. Get them both signed. Haggling over a few million loses you good quality people like Francisco Cordero and forces you to spend even more money on free agents risks such as Eric Gagne.

[Ennder]

Hart had an .353 OBP last year so I'm not sure I'm ready to call him a low OBP player just yet. I'm not convinced he cannot raise his OBP back to that .350 mark next year.

 

His K rate is down which is a good sign but for some reason he hasn't been taking BBs this yaer like he did in 2006/2007 and in the minors. My gut instinct is this year is just an outlier but it is hard to be sure.

[patrickgpe]

I think both are good ideas. His current slump not withstanding, Hart has shown to be good at every facet of the game. He has some power, he has some speed, he can hit for a decent average, he has shown to be a good defender. He will never be great at anything, but I'm OK with that. As for Hardy, as much as I like him playing short, I understand that teams like the brewers, a's and twins need to make decisions on who to keep and who to move. Everyone that has seen Escobar play has said he is already a better defender than Hardy. Moving Gagne, Turnbow, Weeks, possibly Cameron and Hardy off of the books will allow the brewers to try to get a real leadoff hitter, maybe a starter if Sheets and Sabathia move elsewhere, and at least look at extending Fielder and Gallardo.

 

if though the brewers can get rid of weeks, and feel that hardy or escobar could replace him at second, and are able to get a CF that is a leadoff hitter, I'd be fine with keeping Hardy.

[Hammer]

I would really like to see Hardy get signed to a long term deal. But, I would like that deal to revolve around Shortstop pay, but with a move to either 2b or 3b. This way Escobar can realize his full potential.

 

Hart - he can be traded today if that was possible. He has underperformed and has not earned a long-term contract. I would get Gamel a new outfielders glove and pencil him in as the RF for the next 5-6 years.

[buckybrewer]

I'd hate to see JJ go. I think he would be a great option at 3rd if Escobar is ready to take over at SS. I would love to see Hardy get a 4-5 year deal. I imagine it will take around $5-$6 million per year. I think Corey Hart could be had for about that. I think you have to keep both Hardy and Hart. Trading Hardy makes no sense.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Trading Hardy makes no sense.

If it brings in Matt Cain, it sure does make sense. It's all about the value you get in return.

[jhpc12]

I know that Corey's walk rate is low and is probably the biggest part of his game that needs to improve.

 

I remember when the AAA club was in Indianapolis and they did an interview with Cooper. I don't know why this stuck with me, but it did. Coop said that he wanted his players to have at least one walk for every ten at bats. that translates to 10 for every 100 and around 50 for the course of a year. With that being said I don't know if Corey will ever reach 50 plus walks, but if he did just this year alone his OBP would raise from .306 to .371.

 

Then he would be mentioned in the same breath as Fielder, Berkman and the likes.

[brewizard]

Trading Hardy makes no sense.

 

I've been saying this all along. Trading Hardy makes no sense.

 

He is like Ryan Braun - a good player, a good competitor, a good presence, a good guy. Basically a major-league stud. Proven.

 

Why trade somebody like that?

 

Sign Hardy 4-5 years. Trade Escobar and Prince for elite stuff.

[lcbj68c]

Walks are overrated, especially with the way this team GIDP's.

[istanbultaye]

JJ Hardy has sold himself to me after this year. I had figured that the 26 homer year from last year was probably a career year for him, and he'd still be a solid bat, but lucky to get to 20 again. Well, I am now of the opinon that he should be one of the key players to build around over the next five years along with Braun. He has given outstanding offensive production from the shortstop position for two years now, and he's still rather young. Although he hasn't proven to be quite as good defensively as he was made out to be, he is still very solid, even above average there.

 

As to Escobar, I'd like to see him start out at AAA next year for the first 2-3 months, just to try to get a little more polished offensively, and have him move to 2b. Since the right side of the infield is the weakest, I'd rather have the stronger range there, as he would be able to still get balls up the middle that would be just out of range of Hardy at SS, and also cover a little bit for Prince's range deficiencies. Start off the year at 2b still with Weeks/Durham splitting time, and bring up Escobar sooner or later based on how they perform.

 

At 3b, they'd have to decide whether Branyan is going to be able to be counted on to be a platoon with Bill Hall. If not, (and I am leaning towards not, as he has had a tendency to get injured with the Brewers), I would hope to find a 3b similar to Koskie to bring in. I don't really know who is out there who would be similar to Koskie, good LH bat with very good defense.

 

At 1b, I think we should keep Prince for at LEAST for 2009, and I think we should keep him in '10 as well, and then trade him in that off-season. He is the only all around slugger we have on the team for OBP and SLG combined, and think that without him to anchor the lineup, our offense will struggle mightily. Hardy and Hart have been able to carry a good OBP (though Hart has been off of that this year), but neither are the masher that Prince is. Braun is a monster bat, capable of hitting .300, and having a great SLG, but he hasn't proven to be as good at taking walks, so I don't think he can be counted on to be the anchor yet either. I hope he gets better over the next couple years before Prince is gone.

[rluzinski]

If you move Hardy off of SS, you are still going to have to pay him like a SS to sign him long term. That means you have to overpay him. If Hardy is not in the Brewers long term plans at SS, they should trade him.

 

And if money is irrelevant, the Brewers should just sign every player to lifetime contracts.

[joepepsi]

They have to be careful who they sign to long term deals. As we are finding out sometimes young talented players improve, sometimes they stagnate and/or decline rather rapidly. For this winter I'd look to sign Hardy to a multi-year deal but take my chances in arbitration with Hart and Fielder. The Brewers control those two for up to 3 more years if they want 'em. Hart is a talented, exciting player, but his numbers this year indicate a below average corner outfielder. Fielder likewise is a talented hiter, patient with power, but this year's offense coupled with questionable defense, indicate a player who may not be that difficult to replace. At this point there is no need to commit to these two beyond the arbitration years.

[Fatter than Joey]

If you move Hardy off of SS, you are still going to have to pay him like a SS to sign him long term. That means you have to overpay him. If Hardy is not in the Brewers long term plans at SS, they should trade him.

 

Agreed 100% --

 

As to Escobar, I'd like to see him start out at AAA next year for the first 2-3 months, just to try to get a little more polished offensively, and have him move to 2b.

 

Disagree 100% -- If you move Escobar off of SS, you shrink his ceiling which is stellar SS defense. In order for the Brewers to maximize their value with Hardy & Escobar, neither one should be starting on the same IF.

 

And if money is irrelevant, the Brewers should just sign every player to lifetime contracts.

 

Except for Weeks, he sucks.

[Hammer]

rluzinski[/b]]If you move Hardy off of SS, you are still going to have to pay him like a SS to sign him long term. That means you have to overpay him. If Hardy is not in the Brewers long term plans at SS, they should trade him.

 

And if money is irrelevant, the Brewers should just sign every player to lifetime contracts.

Yet another unnecessary shot taken at another poster (me this time). Paying Hardy elite SS money and playing him at 3rd would not be a waste in my opinion. You have Escobar coming up with a rookie contract and JJ still around in case Escobar cannot cut it. Is there a rule that says that you can only have one elite player at each position?

[LouisEly]

If you move Hardy off of SS, you are still going to have to pay him like a SS to sign him long term. That means you have to overpay him. If Hardy is not in the Brewers long term plans at SS, they should trade him.

 

Not necessarily true - the top 3B make more than the top SS. Excluding anyone on the Yankees payroll or anyone not yet eligible for Arby's, here are some salaries for the top 3B:

 

Chipper Jones - $15M

David Wright - $5M

Aramis Ramirez - $15M

Troy Glaus - $12.5M

Melvin Mora - $7.8M

Carlos Guillen - $12M

Casey Blake - $6M

 

Now the top SS:

Jose Reyes - $4.4M

Jhonny Peralta - $2.5M

Jimmy Rollins - $8M

Christian Guzman - $4.2M

Miguel Tejada - $14.8M

Michael Young - $6.2M

 

Looks like the best financial move is to sign Hardy as a SS, then move him to 3B. Given that Hardy has a strong arm but not great range, I would not be surprised if the Brewers long-term plan for Hardy is to move him to 3B when Escobar is ready to take over at SS. Hardy has developed the power to be average offensively at 3B and I think would be well-above-average defensively at 3B. In fact, Escobar at SS and Hardy at 3B would be quite the defensive left side of the infield.

[pete]

What does it mean "to shrink his ceiling"?

[homer]

I think he's saying Escobar is more valuable as a SS than as a 2B.

[fleehaw]

I've been wondering if the Brewers paid Hardy long term like a SS, if he'd be willing to move to 3B. From Hardy's stance, he has to feel like he compares favorably to probably the 2 best SS in the NL, Rollins and Reyes.

Reyes signed a 4yr/$25.23M with him making $4M, 5.75M, and $9M thru arbitration with a team option at $11M

Rollins signed a 5yr/$40M after his 1st year of arby with salaries of $4M, $7M, 7.5M, 7.5M with a team option at $8.5M with a $2M buyout.

Hardy is making $2.65M this year in his first of arby. Would a 4yr/$32M with a team option at around $10M be enough for Hardy? And would it be a good deal for the Brewers?

I would think that Hardy would sign that deal since it puts him squarely in the Rollins/Reyes category. It makes sense for the Brewers if he agrees to switch positions when/if Escobar is ready. If Hardy does not want to switch positions, a 3yr deal that buys out a year of his FA would also make a lot of sense. It locks in his value for an additional year for a team willing to trade for him (if Escobar is ready of course).

[lcbj68c]

I think these numbers projections are a lot to do about nothing. The economy of baseball and the economy in general changes too rapidly. 4 million next year won't be what it is this year. To these ball players, it's getting harder and harder to stretch that $4,000,000 into 5 homes, 3 cars, 2 boats, etc. He'll have to ask for $4,200,000 just on principal of economics and then worry about how it compares to Reyes and Rollins.

[dadofandrew]

No one seems to remember Hardy is a bit more fragile than most young players. He missed a lot of time with an ankle injury, and still has been given lots of time off because of a sore shoulder. For a young man, those nicks and bruises will only get worse as he ages. That said, I have no problem paying JJ long-term and then moving him to another spot. SS's are important, but so are all 8 offensive spots.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

The problem with Hardy is that no matter what position he plays, he's blocking a prospect. Even at 2B, we'd have to unload Weeks then, and if he turns in to Brandon Phillips. that would be a tragic move. Hardy is at his highest value right now so I say trade him for a #2/3 starter. If we moved Hardy to 3B, that pretty much ends the Mat Gamel experiment there, and I'm not sure the Brewers are ready to do that yet. Tough decision.

[brewmann04]

I believe if they offer Hart the same deal they did this year he would take it.I also Agree we need to keep JJ around whether

he plays SS.2B,3B.

[JohnBriggs12]

He is like Ryan Braun - a good player, a good competitor, a good presence, a good guy. Basically a major-league stud. Proven.

 

Why trade somebody like that?

No, he's not like Braun. Braun is signed through 2015 at quite favorable terms to the Brewers. Even if they wanted to, there's no reason to think Hardy would agree to a 4-5 year deal. There's also no LaPorta around to replace Braun and there is an Escobar. I would have no objection if they wanted to keep Hardy another year and move him to 3B or 2B, but ultimately, that might lower his trade value by bringing him within a year of FA. So the time may be right to move him and get top value (ala Cain) back.

 

 

(edit: long nested quote --1992)

[joepepsi]

This topic is deja vu all over again.