To what extent do we go into rebuilding mode, and who is expendable?

[BrewCrewRising]

To be honest, I don't have much hope for next season. This year is showing a whole lot of holes and it's going to take more than one year to fill those holes. Also, losing Sheets and CC will hurt. Gallardo is great, but who knows how he'll get back in the swing of things.

 

So the question I have (and I don't have my own answer really) is do we start rebuilding now and trading high value players? And what do we target?

 

It might be worth it to trade Prince and/or JJ and get somebody's near top prospects and maybe some intriguing young pitching. Their value is high now both in terms of production (Prince not at his apex, but you have to believe that all GM's would compete for him if he were dangled) and in terms of their statuses (Arbitration for two more years).

 

There are is the other set of players that might be nice for somebody's team that are not top tier trade targets. I'm thinking of players like Corey Hart and Bush. I like Corey, but his low OBP coupled with his K tendency bugs me a bit and he's not stellar defensively. But he could be intriguing to some teams. Bush is exactly OK, but has finished this year (so far) on a fairly upbeat note. Some team needing pitching but not wanting to spend too much might be inclined to move for him.

 

Then there are the players who I'd just like to jettison. Those are players like Hall and Weeks. Weeks might fall into the above category if some other team buys into the "high ceiling" argument, but his stats are not sexy at all. Hall would be hard to move, so maybe we eat that one, or trade and eat some salary and take lesser prospects.

 

I know it sounds like I'm trying to trade the whole team, but I just think we're a few years away now from any real contending. I'm not advocating a Marlins type fire sale, but I wonder if we wouldn't be better served than to speed up a Twins-type mature player transition scenario where you just trade a player or a two a year to keep costs down.

 

What are your thoughts?

[sbrylski]

If we spend next season retooling, Rickie Weeks is a guy you keep around, not trade. He's still younger than when a lot of stars broke out.

 

If we retool, which I'm not against, Fielder and Hardy should be the two to go. Probably decline Cameron's extention (this could be a big tell of the direction the team plans to take), give Hall another shot at 3B or start him at SS to let Escobar work some more in AAA. See what's there in Brad Nelson at 1B. I think Hart could spend another season building his value up, or solidifying a premier role on the team.

 

I would trade Fielder and Hardy for a future CF or 3B stud, and an advanced pitching prospect or two.

[colbyjack]

You don't rebuild to any extent. If players like Fielder, Hardy and/or Hart go anywhere they should be dealt for players that can improve the current ballclub. I can't imagine Attanasio would accept the team stepping back even if they felt it would mean they would be more competitive in 2010 or 2011.

 

But I do think one of those three players could be traded. Fielder obviously is a liability at first that we've all had to deal with this year, no to mention there clearly seems to be other baggage associated with him. I don't want to see Hardy go because I feel he is one of the better all-around players the team has. Hart is difficult because he plays a position where it may be easier to go and try to find an upgrade, as opposed to third base and catcher.

 

Weeks I'm torn on because I think everyone knows how talented he is, but it seems as though he's not going to reach his potential until he's playing for another team, similar to Brandon Phillips. I hope the light bulb finally goes on for him when he's still in Milwaukee, but the longer he struggles to hit, which was supposed to be one of his greatest strengths, the less patience the team is going to have with him, and I think it's clear that Dale Sveum at this point in time isn't willing to stay patient with him hoping his bat suddenly gets hot.

 

Bush needs to stick around, especially if the team loses Sheets and Sabathia. Gallardo will help fill the void of one of those two, and the team would be better off not trying to fill more than one spot in the starting rotation this offseason, especially when they'll have their hands full trying to address the bullpen.

[BrewCrewRising]

You don't rebuild to any extent. If players like Fielder, Hardy and/or Hart go anywhere they should be dealt for players that can improve the current ballclub. I can't imagine Attanasio would accept the team stepping back even if they felt it would mean they would be more competitive in 2010 or 2011.

.......

Bush needs to stick around, especially if the team loses Sheets and Sabathia. Gallardo will help fill the void of one of those two, and the team would be better off not trying to fill more than one spot in the starting rotation this offseason, especially when they'll have their hands full trying to address the bullpen.

 

I can see the point of not rebuilding to any extent, but I don't know the extent that we can strengthen the team around any of our best players right now. As you said, the bullpen needs to be addressed and I think last off season showed that it's not easy to try and overhaul the bullpen in one offseason.

 

If we did only get the one more spot in the rotation, as you suggested how competitive could we be? I don't think we're going to see the Cubs get any worse, and I think the Astros know that they're only a few pieces away from being a whole lot better.

 

I'm truly curious how you envision how the team would shake out and how competitive we'd be vis-a-vis the Cubs, Astros, and maybe even Cardinals.

[southpaw121505]

I want to give Weeks one more year, and try him anywhere but lead off, i dont care if hes the best option on the team to leadoff. He's too talented to not try something as simple as moving him down in the order, anywhere, for the slim chance it makes a big difference and he gets comfortable and starts mashing.

[Samurai Bucky]

Guys who can leave the team:

 

Suppan -- sorry but in crunch time, he doesn't come through.

Hall -- he should get something in a trade.

Weeks -- perhaps we should say "one more year" for three more years?

[Oldcity]

Weeks I'm torn on because I think everyone knows how talented he is, but it seems as though he's not going to reach his potential until he's playing for another team, similar to Brandon Phillips.

I don't mean to pick on you Colby, because I've seen many people say this... But exactly what potential has Brandon Phillips met? His highest career OPS+ is 105, and he's only been above 100 one time. His career OBP is an abysmal .308, and his career high OBP is just .331. Weeks is already a better player than Phillips.

[JohnBriggs12]

Getting back to the theme of this thread, I think it's clear that this core (Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Fielder, Braun, Hall) is going to have to be broken up in some manner to address weaknesses in pitching and to balance out an offense that is far to righthanded, and far too prone to strikeouts. But they can't sell low (Hall or Weeks) and expect anything.

 

I'd shop 2 guys, Hardy and Hart. Hardy because his value is high and his replacement is ready and Hart because he's far too streaky, lacking in patience and not a prime time player. Weeks should be tried in CF where his athleticism would be best used. 2nd basemen that are reliable defensively and can handle a bat aren't that hard to find. As for Hall, they are victimized by his contract. I think a new manager and new coaches are what Hall needs for a chance to rebound to the player he was a couple years ago. I also think have more contact hitters in the lineup would allow Hall to be Hall instead of trying to be something he's not.

 

Fielder just needs to regain his focus fulltime. He also needs to drop 20 pounds, maybe start eating meat, and get help in the lineup from a quality lefthanded bat.

[Beast Light]

This may sound drastic but as far as I am concerned, everyone can go with the exception of Braun, Hardy, Gallardo and Parra. Here is my reasoning for keeping these guys:

Braun: The team needs a leader. He has the talent and he can be the guy

Hardy: Slick fielding SS with a good on-base percentage. Doesn't strike out much and with Escobar in the mix, I would love to see his arm transitioned to 3rd. He has also shown year over year improvement in his play. He is screams "supporting cast" for a championship team.

Gallardo: This is obvious

Parra: Too much talent, still very young. Could make a great #3 down the road

To me, these are the guys I would try to build the club around. I would push for CC but realistically, that probably won't happen. As for some of the notable guys that I would consider to be expendable, here is my logic.

Fielder: I can't stand his attitude and he is getting big. If he can't control his weight at age 24, good luck at 30. His play is already beginning to slip and the Brewers better trade him while his 50 HRs are still fresh in people's minds.

Weeks: I understand that he could still break out but the fact of the matter is that he cannot play defense and he repeatedly makes the same mistakes at the plate. After all the time he has spent in the majors, he has not even attempted to adjust to the pitch down and away. Sure he can hit a fastball middle in but he still looks foolish on everything else.

Suppan: Give him to anyone who will take his salary. He is not even close to being worth what he is being paid. He is a below average pitcher that is beginning to get old. I didn't understand the signing when it happened. Why are teams willing to spend $10MM a year for marginal pitchers?? (ex. Washburn)

Hart: He couldn't draw a walk if his life depended on it and that will never change. Also, he doesn't have the power number to offest this shortcoming. The Brewers are always going to be the same old Brewers unless they start filling the lineup with more "on-base" time hitters who can draw walks and do the "little things" (consistently get runners from 2nd to 3rd with no outs, score a runner from 3rd with no outs)

Hall: He is flat out awful. Enough said.

That is where my thoughts are. I have read many posts on this board and many people are so willing to trade Hardy. I know he is due some major cash soon but I really think he is the type you want to keep around. The team needs more players of his mold.

[dadofandrew]

I don't see them dealing over one of the "core". Hall will go to someone who needs a SS, but as for the others, I don't see a lot of movement.

[Oldcity]

Hall should be gone, but other than that I don't think the infield will be touched. If they still had LaPorta they might have traded Fielder for pitching, but now they can't do that unless they're extremely high on Brad Nelson or something. Escobar should play a full year in AAA. His bat is not ready, and since the Brewers have a good shortstop already there's no need to rush it.

 

They desperately need a solid third baseman. If they don't get a full-time guy I wonder if they'd bring back Branyan now that Russ-Hater Ned is gone.

[jackalope02ca]

If we can move Hall without having to pay most of his contract you take whatever the other team will give you and re-invest the money from his contract elsewhere. He just has too many holes in his game.

 

Hardy could be moved but only if we can get a quality starting pitcher back. Otherwise you wait until nearer the trade deadline and move him then. There is always someone desperate for a middle infielder at that time and it would give Escobar more time to get ready at AAA. It's one position we have the luxury of an almost or already ready player to take over who might even have more upside than the current starter.

 

Weeks. I'm not even sure you qualify him an offer. Isn't he arby eligible? Just walk away if you can't trade him. I don't see him as an every day major leaguer and we are going to have to pay him like one. If I'm an opposing GM I'm not giving up a decent prospect for him either. I don't think moving him would be a deal the team would regret down the road no matter what we got back. He is destined to be a major dissapointment wherever he goes. If he can't take the pressure in Milwaukee what's going to happen to him in a major centre.

 

As for the rest of the team you stand pat on the starters. Bring in some new blood for backups relatively on the cheap. I'd also like to see the team try to resign CC at whatever the cost although I doubt it will happen. As for Sheets, thanks for the memories but I don't see him back.

 

I for one would not be against trading Parra for the right player or package either. I'm not saying give him away and not because I don't like him but because I just don't see his arm holding up for long. I think we'd be pleasantly surprised with what we could get back.

[BrewCrewRising]

I don't see them dealing over one of the "core". Hall will go to someone who needs a SS, but as for the others, I don't see a lot of movement.

I never thought to consider that the SS market might afford us some leverage for Bill Hall. Of course given that contract it may be just trading him for something of marginal value, but it might be one of those mutual "Change of scenery" scenarios like McClung for Balfour (and this time we're the team making out...I can just dream).

think I see most people say that you don't really rebuild. You maybe cast off a core player or two (or one and a core-ish type guy).

 

I'm going to try a pincer movement to address the problems for the Crew right now and areas we could rebuild. We need more OBP guys, and we need help in the bullpen.

 

I'll start with the bullpen:

 

Gone are the days I think where Melvin could parlay anybody into something, so don't know how much a possibility there is there to gain anything. There might be a possible exception with McClung there, as perhaps some team would take a chance on him as a starter since he proved intriguing there. One could argue that we could be the ones to take that risk, but I don't think the talent level of this team should allow for that risk.

 

Gagne is a goner. Thank the maker.

 

Mota is a FA, and I'm 50/50 on offering him arby. I think there's a reasonable chance somebody signs him, and then we get the pick. If not, he's worth a little less than 3M in arby (3.2 this year according to MLB4U.com.) He's not a lynchpin guy in the bullpen, but if he was used correctly, his just under 4.0 ERA could serve a purpose.

 

Edit: Mota would net us no picks. So, I'm about 49/51 on this I guess. I still think he could be a decent filler if used correctly. But he can be a wildcard though.

 

If Shouse could be signed for a little less than his 2M, he'd be worth a shot just to have the LOOGY in the pen. But of course, the opportunities to use him correctly are limited. Depending on the manager we have next year Shouse could be an asset.

 

Emotionally, I'd like to see Riske no more, but one can assume his injury had a lot to do with his performance. But because of his contract, I guess we he have to drive him around the block at least once more.

 

So , it shakes out (in my quick analysis here) that we lose Gagne, McClung (via trade). So, we need to find another BP guy, and a possible closer.

 

 

For the lineup, I think we do try to trade Bill Hall as a SS. We look for a RH 3B via FA or trade that is solid enough. I'm not sure yet. But if we took on a 3B who knows he'll be a platoon player, I think you remove some of the drama there, and 3B platoons have been fairly productive for us. There may be a better route for a legit 3B starter, but none come to mind right now.

 

We dangle Corey Hart. I think he has reasonable value. A lot of here aren't total fans of him right now, but that is largely an emotional response to the collapse right now. He has good numbers for the most part though, and he's young and cheap.( I'd even say we keep him, but in this post I'm throwing around ideas to increase OBP).

 

I would say we dangle Weeks, except that his value right now is low, and he's still fairly cheap. His OBP isn't bad. I'm on the fence here about Rickie. Emotionally, I'd like to see him go. Strategically, I think the best idea might be to listen to offers, otherwise keep him and see what another year will do. It isn't like there is an heir apparent for him. In my dream world, instead of having an heir apparent for JJ, we'd have that heir apparent for Rickie, and we could solve two problems at once. But alas.

 

 

So, for now, I think:

 

Dangle: Weeks (unlikely biters), Hart (likely biters), McClung (toss up), Bill Hall (toss up).

 

Pray: somebody has a need for Suppan.

 

Listen to offers on: Prince and JJ, but I would posture on "they're untouchable unless you blow me away". Since I'm going for OBP here, even Prince when he's cold is good in that regard compared to the rest of the Crew. JJ stays just for the security of knowing what you're getting. I guess he'd still be good trade bait next off season as well.

 

Look for a couple of intriguing RP (who may be closers, but don't be suckered into spending a lot of money on a closer).

 

Look for a 3B option, and even a possible platoon 3B. In any case, try to use that option to increase OBP.

 

Look for a stop gap solution to RF until Gamel comes up. In truth, though I advocated possibly trading Corey, I don't have any replacements to offer as solutions right now. (for being as verbose as I am in this post, I am sure lazy on solutions.)

 

Look for a better backup catcher, or at least give Rivera a shot. Maybe we give him his shot and depending on how things are next midseason, we bring up one of our prospects.

 

I'm 50/50 on what to do about Cameron. I'm not in love with him, but he's been OK in truth. But since we may be looking at unknown quantities in RF and 3B, I'm not sure how risky to be with CF.

 

 

Obviously this is very incomplete. I'm kind of thinking outloud here. I think we have to look at the rotation more, and think about the OF more. Bullpen is going to be a little from within, and some through trades. I don't advocate any big FA signings for RP. But essentially, I look to shore up OBP, and the bullpen.

[kramnoj]

Gone are the days I think where Melvin could parlay anybody into something, so don't know how much a possibility there is there to gain anything.

 

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying. Torres was acquired for very little, and Mota was acquired for a catcher that put up a .370 OPS in 53 ABs this year!

[BrewCrewRising]

Gone are the days I think where Melvin could parlay anybody into something, so don't know how much a possibility there is there to gain anything.

 

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying. Torres was acquired for very little, and Mota was acquired for a catcher that put up a .370 OPS in 53 ABs this year!

Touche.

 

But at the same time, the Pirates were just willing to deal Torres. Mota was a crapshoot and on average has been OK, but it's not he was a pleasant surprise like Kolb or Turnbow when they first came in (I realize we got them off waivers).

 

I'm thinking more like the retrospective steals like Villanueva, Capuano, Overbay, Carlos Lee, etc.

 

But I take your point. I admit that my statement was a bit emotionally tainted. I'm not riding high on DM right now.

[BrewCrewForever]

As good a player and as much as I like Hardy I think he will bring the best pitching in a trade and with Escobar just about ready he may be gone this winter. At this point Hardy probably has more value then Prince or Hart. It will be interesting to see what moves this team makes this winter to sure up some of the things we have sucked at this season.

[kramnoj]

But at the same time, the Pirates were just willing to deal Torres.

 

This is true. It took the failure of the Pirates to let Melvin win this deal. But it was Melvin that made the deal. The Pirates presumably would have lost on a Torres trade with just about any other organization. Melvin was presumably able to make the deal because he is good at communicating with other front offices, knows what they want, knows who they are willing to move, and has been in baseball long enough that he is regarded in baseball as a good trading partner.

[jackalope02ca]

Torres maybe isn't the best example. Remember he was done with Pittsburg as they had reneg'd on a verbal deal in his contract to use his baseball schools or something to that effect wherever it is he is from. He even was still considering retirment after we got him or at least I remember seeing rumours to that effect.

[colbyjack]

I don't mean to pick on you Colby, because I've seen many people say this... But exactly what potential has Brandon Phillips met? His highest career OPS+ is 105, and he's only been above 100 one time. His career OBP is an abysmal .308, and his career high OBP is just .331. Weeks is already a better player than Phillips.

 

I was not aware of Phillips career OPS+, but you have to admit that he puts up pretty good power/speed numbers for a second baseman, and he didn't start doing so (although he wasn't given much of an opportunity to do so in Cleveland) until he got to Cincy.

 

Weeks still has more to build off of. I know his OBP is solid compared to his BA, but he really needs to get his BA up.

 

I'm not so sure the Brewers are going to have an easy time dealing Hall even if they shop him as a SS. While I know they could get a pretty nice haul for Hardy, as it seems as though a few teams out there are willing to give up some nice talent to obtain a quality SS. Even with that, I'm not so sure I would part with Hardy. While his OBP isn't ideal, he's one of the players on the Brewers that isn't really a liability in some form or another.

[logan82]

colbyjack wrote:

he's one of the players on the Brewers that isn't really a liability in some form or another.

That isn't much of an endorsement. The best that can be said about a player is that he isn't a liability? Ouch, doesn't say much about our other players really. Unfortunately I agree. Almost to a player they all have faults, and big ones in most cases. However they are all young(most a couple years from there prime yet) and there isn't anybody in AAA really knocking on the door for playing time.

[MNBrew]

colbyjack wrote:

he's one of the players on the Brewers that isn't really a liability in some form or another.

That isn't much of an endorsement. The best that can be said about a player is that he isn't a liability?....

I took Colby to mean that Hardy has some obvious plusses but is one of the few guys on the roster with no major detractions to his game. Two example of significant plusses AND minuses:

 

Fielder has monster power, drives in lots of runs, can carry the team at the plate in stretches. However, Fielder is getting bigger & slower, Ks a ton, and is a defensive liability enough so that his most productive future could be as a DH.

 

Cameron has good power and a decent RBI total, esp. considering he missed the first month, and is an outstanding defensive CF with good speed. But he hits for a low BA, his OBP is also poor, he Ks way too much and doesn't walk nearly enough.

 

Put in that context, it's easy as well as complimentary to state that Hardy doesn't really have major holes in his game.

[clancyphile]

If both Sabathia and Sheets go, then the rotation needs to be rebuilt. Keeping one of them is crucial if we're to avoid a rebuilding phase.

 

The bullpen needs some work. Riske was disappointing, Gagne a disaster, and it was just not reliable.

 

The next step has to be a new 3B: Either move Braun back, and look for a solid LF, or find a good 3B.

[Fatter than Joey]

Here are my thoughts, assuming:

 

1.) The Brewers don't make the playoffs...

2.) DM is on some sort of hotseat.

 

My moves...

 

1.) Fire replace DM and hire a new manager -- DM has had plenty of time to build a team in Milw. I don't think DM has done a terrible job, however if we are going to retool, I would just as soon let someone else take a crack at it.

 

2.) I would try to move Prince, we have some guys that can play 1b and given Prince's hot September, I think his value is going to be still pretty high. I think Prince is one of the leaders on this team, and when you watch his effort on the field, I don't think his leadership is necessarily a good thing. I think his D will continue to decline, and my fear is that in a year or two, regardless of his offensive output, no NL team is going to want Prince to play 1b for them.

 

3.) Weeks -- I think his stock is low, so I wouldn't be very keen on trading him. I still would like to see Weeks play CF, much like Braun, he could turn from a liability to a decent defender. Weeks HAS to produce offensively in order to justify his getting run out on the diamond. I certainly would not be sad if Weeks got traded, I would hate to see him dumped though.

 

4.) Hardy -- Ideally I would keep JJ around for another year to give Escobar a full season at AAA. I think a team hard up for a SS would overpay for a guy like JJ, and if that were the case I'd send him off tomorrow.

 

Any trade I made would involve some pitching.