Who replaces Doug Melvin in 2009?

[Fatter than Joey]

Plus he fired Yost who probably cost us the playoffs for the 2nd consecutive year with his boobery.

 

MA fired Yost, DM extended him for this year -- I blame DM for Yost managing in 2008. DM should have fired Yost at the end of 2007.

 

Yeah he isn't amazing but he is certainly adequate and it got Estrada off the team.

 

DM could have simply released Estrada, just like the Mets did. He did not need to trade for Mota to get him.

[Ennder]

Yeah he isn't amazing but he is certainly adequate and it got Estrada off the team.

 

DM could have simply released Estrada, just like the Mets did. He did not need to trade for Mota to get him.

Ahh yeah, forgot about that. Mota has still earned his salary this year though so it still has been a good signing.

[Fatter than Joey]

Kendall has been one of the best defensive C in baseball this year.

 

This is the surprising aspect of Kendall -- His offense really has been pedestrian, but I would have never guessed he'd be as good defensively.

 

You are going to judge Cameron on strike outs and nothing else?

 

I like Cameron a lot -- Defensively I think he has been wonderful.

 

Mota has still earned his salary this year though so it still has been a good signing.

 

Mota was brutal for most of the early part of the season -- walking a batter an inning -- I think he has been better as of late, but I don't think we should make a big push to resign him.

[Ennder]

Oh god no, I don't want to re-sign Mota either, especially if he wants a raise or a multi year contract. I won't lose any sleep if we do sign him for a 1 year contract for about the same pay but I won't be jumping for joy either.

 

I also agree on Kendall, it won't surprise me if next year he comes out and can't throw anyone out and puts up a .650 OPS and is just useless.

[JJHardy7]

1) The Gagne signing. I can live with it since it is only 1 year so the overall risk was pretty low but there was no way he could have earned how much they payed him even if he didn't totally explode in the first half.

 

I agree with you here. One of the main things I have against this signing is that IMO there were better options in AAA. If Gagne made the minimum, he would've been released a long time ago IMO.

[joepepsi]

Melvin built a team based on offensive prowess and pitching that would be just good enough. If you consider this team a failure then the blame has to lie with the offense. Last year's pitching staff was 9th in ERA and runs allowed. This year it's 4th in both. That's good enough to make the playoffs.

 

Offensively, Hardy is the only player who has shown improvement. I suppose Cameron's power spike counts as an improvement too. Everyone else is worse than they were last year. Everyone else. It was unreasonable to expect Fielder to top 50 homers or Braun to hit .324 again, but the core of the team is a young talented offense. As a group they should have shown improvement. Hart, Hall, and Weeks are worse than in 2007. Braun and Fielder have been fine overall, but neither has shown any improvement in any area over last season. And they both have disappeared for extended periods of time at different points throughout the season.

 

It's a stubborn, regressing offense that seems too arrogant for their years to make adjustments in their approach. Either that or these youngsters simply aren't as good as we hoped. That's the real weakness of this team. And that is not Melvin's fault.

[logan82]

Ennder wrote:

2) Trading Gabe Gross. We really could have used his bat off the bench this year.

That move still confuses me. We at BF.net talked all off season about acquiring a LH hitter for the outfield. It keeps getting brought up that we need a left handed bat off the bench. We had a decent LH bat on the bench and we traded him. Melvin kept saying they wanted a left handed bat off the bench. I think we would be better off with Gross over Durham right now.

 

 

I would think Melvin comes back next year. Who would want to come in as a manager though? If Melvin comes back I would guess it is a lame duck season for him so I doubt that we will see any multi year manager contracts because if Melvin is gone, the next GM would want to hire his own manager. I guess I wouldn't be surprised to see Mark A. clean house.

[giffted1]

I think we would be better off with Gross over Durham right now.

I'm not sure about that. Gross and Durham have similar numbers vs. righties over their careers, but unlike Gross, Durham can also hit lefties. Durham has also been better this year.

 

I agree that we could have really used Gross this season, but I'd rather have Durham on the bench.

[logan82]

I think we would be better off with Gross over Durham right now.

I'm not sure about that. Gross and Durham have similar numbers vs. righties over their careers, but unlike Gross, Durham can also hit lefties. Durham has also been better this year.

 

I agree that we could have really used Gross this season, but I'd rather have Durham on the bench.

Hart has been terrible for much of the year. His splits suggest it might be a good idea to platoon him. Gross would make a perfect platoon partner. Gross over Hart would be a bigger gain than Durham over Weeks.

[Ennder]

Hart has been terrible for September. He really wasn't bad the rest of the year.

 

OPS by month.

 

.779

.861

.881

.740

.834

.505

 

Yeah a .740 and .779 aren't great but every hitter has their bad months, it is really the .505 OPS Sept and the lack of BBs that are hurting him.

[logan82]

I was looking more at Hart's OBP which has been around .300 or less since May.

.358

.342

.292

.301

.310

.217

[colbyjack]

As others have noted, for as much criticism that Melvin has received for the bullpen he built, and has built in the past, this year's group has been rather effective. Some key blown saves obviously stand out, and without a doubt that needs to be corrected somehow moving forward.

 

I'm concerned about the starting lineup, because while the team is 6th in the NL in runs scored, all of the playoff teams the Brewers are currently chasing are ahead of them, and as we all know, their offense is largely carried by their slugging, which is third in the NL, with the team eighth in OBP. Not horrible, but not better than average. The offseason focus really needs to be on the team's overall OBP, and that may mean some unpopular or at least tough decisions need to be made. As much as I like Corey Hart, he is one of the main culprits, if not the biggest one, of not getting on base, but I don't mean to single anyone out because even Ryan Braun, who obviously isn't going anywhere for a long time, also needs to pick and choose his situations more wisely.

 

I know Melvin is aware of this, citing how the Brewers haven't had a player to draw 100 walks last offseason, but this time he really needs to do something about it.

 

Anyway, I don't see Melvin getting fired. Many of the moves Attanasio makes are based on popularity and perception, and I think he is well aware that for the most part the Brewers fan base supports Melvin and that he is universally regarded as one of the better GMs out there. Melvin definitely has his work cut out for him this offseason though.

[Jimbo]

Our bullpen this year has been one of the biggest disasters in the history of man kind. OK maybe that is a slight exaggerations, but if we had even an average bullpen we would be at least 3-4 games up in the wild card right now.

Exhibit A

Brewers' bullpen +0.89 wins above average.

 

[sveumrules]

Our bullpen this year has been one of the biggest disasters in the history of man kind. OK maybe that is a slight exaggerations, but if we had even an average bullpen we would be at least 3-4 games up in the wild card right now.

Exhibit A

Brewers' bullpen +0.89 wins above average.

 

 

(blue)yeah, but those are just numbers. they leave no room for emotion!(/blue)

[buckybrewer]

Attanasio has to decide what to do with Melvin this off season. He has one year left on his deal. Either extend him or fire him. Don't bring him back as a lame duck gm. My guess is Melvin is gone and Jack Z replaces him.

[Postseason2006]

Jeff Suppan, Melvin's nail in the coffin.

[PeaveyFury]

Has he been excellent at drafting pitching? No, but Gallardo, Parra and Jeffress are pretty good in 9 years given all the offense we've drafted.

 

Well, Jeffress can still go the Mike Jones route at any point in the minors, so that's why I qualified it as 'arms that have stuck in the majors'. Manny is probably there with this season now too, but still, that's 2 arms in 9 drafts. Just because two of them look like they have legit potential to be 1-3 starters in the Majors doesn't make for the fact that it took 8 years for Jack to have one of his arms qualify, and that there are only two of them. But, just IMO.

[BrewCrewForever]

Melvin or whoever the GM is needs to get a solid closer, a true leadoff hitter who carries a good average and a high OBP and another starter probably a #2 guy behind Yovani. If we can bring in those three things it will help a lot.

[Boy Jeenius]

From the Madison Capitol Times:

 

Buser Olney - "I called colleague Peter Gammons yesterday morning and started the conversation saying, "You know who would be perfect if Cashman leaves "¦" I didn't even finish the sentence before he shot back: "Doug Melvin." Again: It's all pure speculation."

 

This speculation might not be as far-fetched as the Cain rumor. But it should be equally distressing to Brewers fans. OK, Melvin wasted $10 million on Eric Gagne. Get over it. Every GM makes mistakes. What Melvin has done since coming to Milwaukee is provide serious, thoughtful, visionary leadership that has turned one of the worst franchises in professional sports into a team that can contend for a title right up until it collapses.

 

The best chance for the Brewers to get over that hump is with Melvin calling the shots. Better than letting Peter Gammons do it. "

 

Very well stated. Big picture, there should be no conversation like this whatsoever. He's taken a comatose franchise and has us complaining about a collapse that cost the playoffs. Personally, I'll take the playoff shot as opposed to going back to 62 wins.

As for replacing him with Jack Z because of the bullpen problems, one could argue the reverse. Fire Jack because he hasn'y drafted a relief pitcher that's been effective in 9 years. Either argument sounds equally short sighted.

 

Edit spelling

[JohnBriggs12]

Boy Jeenius,

 

Melvin was blessed with multiple high draft picks and although he inherited a bad team on paper, it had players that had value. He made some sharp moves early on, like Podsednik, and a few others. Taking this team from where it was to around .500 wasn't all that difficult. A lot of guys could have done that. But he's had a team for 5 straight seasons that at some point was either in control of playoff berth or within 4 games of one after July 1st and he hasn't closed the deal. Much of that is on Yost, but who hired Yost?

 

Sabathia was a great move, but he fell into Melvins' lap. It didn't take a genius. Had Cleveland not been devastated by injuries, that deal never happens. Jack Z was the guy who drafted the prospects that Melvin gave the edge over other teams.

 

Melvin has had a relatively long run here. A clean house is required.

[naivin]

Sabathia was a great move, but he fell into Melvins' lap. It didn't take a genius.

 

Was it really a good move though? It appears now that Mevin may have badly misjudged the rest of the team in thinking Sabathia would make them playoff/WS contenders. They gave up plenty for CC and for the second consecutive season, a significant trade will net them nothing as far as the post-season is concerned. The benefit of hindsight makes the Sabathia trade look not nearly as appealing as it did a few weeks ago. A GM is judged by his ability to put a team together without the benefiit of hindsight.

 

Now, the great unknown (supposedly) is the role attanasion played in this as well as theNEd firing. If he instructed Ned to go get Sabathia (possible), and he instructed Doug to fire Ned (likely), then i would submit that Doug will probably choose to leave on his own - assuming Attanasio doesn't axe him first.

 

I love everything Attanasio has done, but I am starting to wonder if maybe has lost sight a little bit of what got them to the point of being considered playoff contenders.

[kramnoj]

"But he's had a team for 5 straight seasons that at some point was either in control of playoff berth or within 4 games of one after July 1st and he hasn't closed the deal. Much of that is on Yost, but who hired Yost?

Melvin has had a relatively long run here. A clean house is required. "

 

So when do you decide a GM needs to be fired? Terry Ryan is regarded by many as a good GM, but he was responsible for a losing team for half a decade before his teams started winning.

[tyguy20204]

Melvin's major failings:

 

1. Believing that Ned Yost is/was a capable major league manager. This, I think, is the most damning evidence that Melvin has some serious flaws as a general manager. No, I'm not talking about Yost's ability to 'get the most out of his players,' or his ability to stave off a September collapse. Yost had little to do with these things, save perhaps for creating a tense atmosphere in the clubhouse. What I'm talking about is Yost's ineptitude with regards to the fundamental strategy of the game. Throughout his tenure, Yost showed a basic inability to effectively manage the bullpen (not understanding left-handed/right-handed splits, not understanding which relievers work optimally upon a day's rest - remember Turnbow before his implosion, and Matt Wise). He also displayed a stubborn dislike of platoons, an inability to pinch-hit for his catcher or other offensively challenged position players, a tendency to implement and then abandon certain schemes - the pitcher batting eighth, and the whole home/road pitching platoon debacle. The list goes on. The fact that Melvin condoned, nay, supported this manager, makes me question Melvin's plans for the future of this franchise.

 

2. Underestimating the impact of defense. There are some players, perhaps, who should be given leeway in discussions upon their defensive deficiencies. These players should be solidly above-average offensively at that position. Rickie Weeks does not fit this definition. Neither did Johnny Estrada. And Ryan Braun was simply unable to play his position, a fact that should have been recognized in the minor leagues so that we didn't have to rely upon a historically bad defensive performance at third-base as we participated in a pennant race. Yes, management should stay loyal to a defensively-challenged, young ballplayer, but only if that individual has the ceiling of at least mediocrity at their position. Melvin believed that Braun and Weeks could be mediocre at their positions. He was wrong. Unfortunately, he seems to be repeating this experiment with Mat Gamel. Granted, Gamel may prove me wrong, but when everyone outside the organization, collectively, decries a person's defense, it paints a pretty damning picture. At this point, I will say that Melvin is refusing to learn from past history.

 

3. Underestimating the impact of on-base-percentage. Or perhaps it is not underestimating, but rather a failure to acquire individuals with this skillset. But this is a major, major failing. The Brewers started the season with only one individual (one!) who would go on to have an OBP higher than .350, and that is Prince Fielder at .372. Durham has a .370 OBP but he was acquired later on, as we all know. Second in OBP is J.J. Hardy, at .345, third is Craig Counsell, at .343. Now, in some respects, it is hard to blame Melvin because almost all the Brewers regulars have seen large drops in their OBP from last year. So I will not blame him so much for this one, but hope that he will look to upgrade this facet of the club in the future.

 

4. Contracts. Suppan, Hall, Turnbow, Gagne. Suppan, Hall, and Turnbow are at least understandable (Suppan being the least understandable of the three). Gagne was just a bad decision considering his collapse in Boston of last year, and also considering that the ten million dollars could have acquired a plethora of functional bullpen arms.

 

Do I want to see Melvin fired? No. But I hope that he's smart enough to learn from his mistakes. I hope that he can adapt his thinking and admit to himself - 'Oh, some of the directions that I am taking this ball club may not be the best way to win. Maybe I should explore other avenues."

 

However, I also wouldn't be disappointed if he was fired, if, and only if, Jack Z. replaces him.

[mancl]

Maybe Melvin doesn't want to be back. There are some who think Attanasio leaned hard on Melvin to fire Yost. There are some ( see Witrado in a recent Brewer Mailbag, )who thought getting Gagne was Attanasio's call. Perhaps Melvin would like to go someplace where the owner isn't involved as much in baseball decisions, if that is indeed the case.

[Trombone482]

Jeff Suppan, Melvin's nail in the coffin.

I believe for what I have heard, is that things like this are approved by MA. I can not fault DM for this signing, we knew what we were getting when we signed him.