Replacing Weeks with Durham-why?

[eanelson4]

Here is another spin on things.

 

Maybe Rickie is better suited to only play 3 games per week rather than 5 or 6. Since the ASB, he has put up vastly better numbers and coincidently or not (I say not) we have had Ray Durham for that same period.

 

I'll take Rickie's post-ASB numbers for 3 games per week any day over his pre-ASB numbers for 5 or 6 games a week. We are getting much better production out of the 2B spot, and thats all that matters to me. If Rickie can prove that he is worth 5 or 6 starts a week, then I would rethink it but for now, why change something that isn't broken?

[endaround]

Durham hasn't played much-Weeks has like 330 PAs and Durham 100 since the ASB.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think the fact that Giants fans think less of Durham's defense than Brewers fans think of Weeks' is noteworthy.

 

Weeks and Durham defensively are like the stupid white and black jellybeans, your grandma put out in the Easter candy dish -- blech. If you like the white better than the black, or the black better than the white, it really makes no difference -- in either case those are the last 2 beans in the candy dish.

 

If you compare them only to 2B, Weeks looks very good...

 

I think you are alluding to a potential pitfall in comparison -- Sometimes when people say "Weeks is above average offensively" they mean that Weeks is better than the average major baseball player -- which includes all the Counsells, and TGJs floating around in MLB -- I have no doubt Weeks is in fact above average in that regard. However, a lot of people will mistakenly conclude that "Weeks is above average" means he is an average starting NL 2b -- which he isn't. I don't like comparing Weeks to AL 2bs, as they face different pitchers and play in different parks. In 2008 there is not an offensive category Weeks is above average in with regard to NL 2b (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS) --- he is across the board in the bottom half.

 

I'm not saying that Weeks will be an MVP-type player next year

 

I appreciate that.

[eanelson4]

Durham hasn't played much-Weeks has like 330 PAs and Durham 100 since the ASB.

Well that certainly isn't the case.

 

Since the ASB, RW has started 38 games and gotten 185 PA's (compared to 351 first half AB's). His stat line is:

 

.265 / .378 / .426 / .804 compared to .217 / .320 / .367 / .687 in the first half

 

Since the ASB, Durham has started 19 games at amassed 100 PA's. His stat line is:

 

.273 / .360 / ..477 / .837

 

Suffice it to say, coincidence or not, Rickie is a much better ball player when he is not playing every day.

 

EDIT: And I will also note that they are both having easily their best months of the season in September. Again, coincidence or not, they have basically split time evenly with Durham starting 9 games and Rickie starting 7.

[endaround]

I have no idea why I wrote 330. The point is that before the last two game Weeks had twice the PAs of Durham which is the exact opposite of what would happen if there was some platooning going on. The number of players who are actually better not paying most of the time is small.

[logan82]

In 2008 there is not an offensive category Weeks is above average in with regard to NL 2b (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS) --- he is across the board in the bottom half.

I guess you might be pretty close to being correct. I still disagree though. I think he is pretty much average this year. That even includes a first half where he way underperformed.

 

Weeks .233/.340/.387/.727

AVG NL 2B .268/.335/.405/.740

[eanelson4]

I have no idea why I wrote 330. The point is that before the last two game Weeks had twice the PAs of Durham which is the exact opposite of what would happen if there was some platooning going on. The number of players who are actually better not paying most of the time is small.

The numbers I listed are over the course of nearly 1/2 a baseball season. I would consider that sample size ample.

[rluzinski]

The numbers I listed are over the course of nearly 1/2 a baseball season. I would consider that sample size ample.

 

You can not infer very much with a sample size that minuscule.

[Herm]

Driving back from that ridiculous loss at Wrigley yesterday and having the required "what would you do in the offseason" conversation. Weeks of course getting trashed by all in the car. Looked up Jose Reyes as a comparison (similar age, middle infielder, ESPN etc see him as one of the best leadoff hitters since Henderson and Molitor).

 

Reality is (from baseball-reference.com)

 

Reyes 3162 career ABs. .287 batting avg, .337 on base %, .437 slugging, for 774 OPS. 237 walks vs 379 Ks.

 

Weeks 1596 career ABs (so roughly half the ABs), .244 batting avg, .352 on base %, .403 slugging for .755 OPS. 419 strikeouts (so Weeks has a much higher strikeout rate than Reyes), but Weeks has nearly as many walks (211) with half as many at bats. Plus Weeks has a crazy number more HBP (59 for Weeks, 5 for Reyes, meaning that in similar # of at bats Weeks would project to have about 100 more HBP).

 

So for all Reyes's lavish praise, Weeks is better at what everyone considers the most important lead off skill -- reaching first safely -- OBP is .015 higher despite a .043 advantage Reyes has in batting avg. If Weeks can ever figure out how to make more consistent contact, he could conceivably vault well ahead of Reyes as an offensive force.

[kramnoj]

Reyes career numbers are depressed because of his poor performance as a young player. If you look at this year and his two previous years, he has performed well, and those are the years that have been shown to be most accurate when projecting future value.

[Fatter than Joey]

If Weeks can ever figure out how to make more consistent contact, he could conceivably vault well ahead of Reyes as an offensive force.

 

I really doubt this.

 

Reyes has 100 more SLG points -- Weeks's BB rate has dropped from 16% to 12%, so Weeks's struggle/drop with OPB is not only due to BA, In fact it is almost entirely due to decreased BBs -- which I suspect is due to pitchers realizing they can pitch to Weeks to get him out. Throw in Reyes ability to steal bases -- Weeks would have to improve considerably to ever get to where Reyes is at offensively.

[joepepsi]

Reyes career numbers are depressed because of his poor performance as a young player. If you look at this year and his two previous years, he has performed well, and those are the years that have been shown to be most accurate when projecting future value.

Last year Rickie had a higher OPS than Reyes.

 

Brian Roberts was no great shakes his first 1500+ plate appearances either.

[kramnoj]

Last year Rickie had a higher OPS than Reyes.

 

That is true. It also has nothing to do with what I wrote. My only point was that using the career numbers of Reyes OBP to predict his future value isn't going to be helpful when his career numbers are weighed down by his learning curve in the first 3 years of his career when he was 20-22.

[Gobias Industries]

That is true. It also has nothing to do with what I wrote. My only point was that using the career numbers of Reyes OBP to predict his future value isn't going to be helpful when his career numbers are weighed down by his learning curve in the first 3 years of his career when he was 20-22.

I just want to state that I think it's clear that Jose Reyes is a better baseball player, but one could seriously make the case that Weeks was rushed as well. And you can't dismiss that he has been dogged by hand injuries 3 of his first 4 years. His stats during his rookie year were deflated because the Brewers, for some god forsaken reason, had him playing through a pretty serious thumb injury.

[RobertR]

Somebody needs to explain to me why Craig Counsell is starting games in September. That's the infielder that should be sitting.

Robert

[Ennder]

Counsell is starting because Hall is one of the worst hitters in baseball this year against righties. At this point I'd give Gamel a start but oh well.

 

I was looking closely at Weeks career today and noticed something kind of interesting. The sample is still a bit low but he has been just miserable against fly ball pitchers in his career so far.

 

.190 AVG, .300 OBP, .338 SLG in 467 PA. I couldn't find splits for his pop up rate but this is exactly the type of pitcher he seems to always strike out or pop up against. I think he either needs to figure out this type of pitcher or sit against the right handed ones at the very least.

[DHonks]

Ender, Gamel is likely out for the remainder of the season with elbow issues.

[Oldcity]

Thank goodness Weeks has been sitting (single, triple, walk, homer).

[Ennder]

Thank goodness Weeks has been sitting (single, triple, walk, homer).

 

Hard to really complain when Durham has an OPS over 1.000 in Sept as well.

[ELCABALLO45]

JohnStumpyPepys wrote:

So for all Reyes's lavish praise, Weeks is better at what everyone considers the most important lead off skill -- reaching first safely -- OBP is .015 higher despite a .043 advantage Reyes has in batting avg. If Weeks can ever figure out how to make more consistent contact, he could conceivably vault well ahead of Reyes as an offensive force.

Weeks is not batting lead off anymore so there goes that.

 

This year...

 

Jose Reyes is hitting .302/.364/.486

 

Rickie Weeks .232/.339/.385

 

Plus Weeks is a K machine. Reyes is faster, better on the base paths and has a higher baseball IQ.

 

Weeks is basically right where I expected him to be. Just like FTJ said Weeks is not drawing as many walks because teams/pitchers are figuring out that they can get him out easily.

[DHonks]

In the minors, I long praised Rickie's skillset for leadoff, when most said he'd a middle of the order guy. To me, I was very wrong. Weeks still seems hindered by the stereotypical leadoff mindset, as he looks uncertain as to when to swing at the first pitch, when to put it in play, and when to swing hard.

 

I suggested a few weeks back that he needs to move back to the 6th or 7th spots in the lineup. Who bats leadoff? I don't know. But ultimately I don't believe it should be Weeks.

 

As of now, I am thinking we can actually improve the club a little bit by utilizing some AA players next year. I'd love to have Escobar at SS, Hardy at 3b (unlike many SS at 3b, I like his over-the-top arm angle). I'd love to think that we can have Brantley in either center or right.

[rluzinski]

Wow. Svuem really proved everyone who said that Durham can't play everyday, wrong. The guy lasted 3 straight starts?

[logan82]

Wow. Svuem really proved everyone who said that Durham can't play everyday, wrong. The guy lasted 3 straight starts?

2 Yost/4 Svuem I think. 6 Straight starts. With an off day after the double header.