2009 Draft Order

[colbyjack]

Not too long ago I started this thread in July, looking ahead to high the Brewers might be drafting the following year, usually the only consolation prize we Brewers fans had on such crummy seasons.

 

This year I add the list now, with the Brewers in a month-long slump with several teams hot on our tail. This list also points out just how good the Brewers are (6th best in baseball), would be the best team in the NL West or the AL Central, and makes a three-game lead seem much bigger than what it has been made out to be over the past week.

 

So here's to the Brewers turning things around, starting this evening, to finish the year strong and to remind all of us just how little the draft order matters when your favorite team fields a winning ballclub.

 

1. Nationals (.384)

2. Padres (.388)

3. Mariners (.393)

4. Pirates (.411)

5. Royals (.428)

6. Braves (.442)

7. Giants (.445)

8. Orioles (.448)

9. Reds (.452)

*9a. Nationals (for not signing A. Crow)

10. Rockies (.456)

11. A's (.459)

12. Tigers (.479)

13. D-Backs (.490)

14. Indians (.490)

15. Rangers (.490-72-75 means their winning % is just a few ticks higher than CLE/AZ)

16. Marlins (.507)

17. Dodgers (.514)

18. Yankees (.527)

19. Cardinals (.534)

20. Blue Jays (.541)

21. Astros (.544)

22. Phillies (.544)

23. Twins (.548)

24. White Sox (.555)

25. Brewers (.565)

26. Mets (.566)

27. Red Sox (.588)

28. Cubs (.603)

*28a. Yankees (for not signing G. Cole)

29. Rays (.604)

30. Angels (.610)

[brewjihad]

Something we should probably watch is where the possible destinations for Sheets and Sabathia end up- we want them to be 16 or higher, because if a team 15 or lower signs one of them we'd only get sandwich and second round pick, but if the teams they go to are 16 or higher, we get their first-rounder and a sandwich.

 

The Astros are at 21, and the Rangers are at 15. It'd be nice for Texas to get hot and pass up the Marlins if Sheets would land there. The Yankees and Dodgers are 17 and 18. If we're going to lose Sheets and Sabathia, it'd be pretty awesome to have 3 late first round picks and 2 sandwich round picks.

[foamboy1]

Quick question that is somewhat related. I like to see the Yank's and Dogers in that 17 and 18 range in terms of potential compensation for CC and Sheets. But I was wondering...what happens if the Yank's sign two Class A free agents....say Texiera and Sabathia. How is the compensation determined. Both teams could not recieve the same first round pick, right?

[colbyjack]

If the Yankees were to sign Teixeira and Sabathia, the Brewers would receive the Yankees first-round pick based on the projected Elias rankings as discussed on this thread:

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=15486

 

Sabathia (at least at the time) was projected to have an Elias ranking of above 97, the highest of any player in baseball, with Teixeira above 95. Since Sabathia is the more "valuable" free agent, the Brewers get the higher pick, with the Angels receiving the Yankees second-round selection.

 

And that is how the picks would continue to be distributed if the Yankees go nuts this offseason and sign a ton of Type A FAs. If Ben Sheets were the next highest rated free agent that the Yankees signed, the Brewers would get the Yankees third-round pick.

 

FYI, compensation picks are distributed differently (the worst team to lose a Type A FA gets the first pick in the sandwich round, followed by the second worst team to lose a Type A FA...).

[colbyjack]

Every year for the past decade (dating back pre-Brewerfan.net) this thread/topic would serve as my tail between my legs yet ever optimistic look to the future hoping the Brewers would indeed someday make the playoffs.

 

So now this thread serves as a long-awaited and much-needed celebration. I still dig the draft and the prospects that makes it so fascinating, but on this day there are much, much bigger and better things to look forward to.

 

The Brewers will draft 25th, the same position they held when I started this thread (although behind the Mets at the time), and I'm not even going to bother looking up the last time they picked that late. Some players taken with the 25th pick the past several years include Christian Friedrich (at one point in time expect to be a top 10-15 overall pick this past year), Aaron Poreda, Hank Conger (a player many thought the Brewers were considering nearly 10 picks higher in '06), Matt Garza, Matt Cain and Bobby Crosby, and notable players taken within a couple of picks in each direction of #25 during those same years include Jacoby Ellsbury, Phillip Hughes, Brandon Wood, Chad Billingsley and Jeremy Bonderman.

 

Here's the complete list, noting that the White Sox still have to play a game against the Tigers tomorrow, which could also effect a possible tie-breaker game between the White Sox and Twins on Tuesday.

 

1. Nationals (.366)

2. Mariners (.377)

3. Padres (.389)

4. Pirates (.414)

5. Orioles (.422)

6. Giants (.444)

7. Braves(.444)

8. Reds (.457)

9. Rockies (.457)

*9a. Nationals (for not signing A. Crow)

10. Tigers (.460)*

11. Royals (.463)

12. A's (.466)

13. Rangers (.488)

14. Indians (.500)

15. D-Backs (.506)

16. Dodgers (.519)

17. Marlins (.522)

18. Cardinals (.531)

19. Blue Jays (.531)

20. Astros (.534)

21. White Sox (.540)*

22. Twins (543)*

23. Mets (.549)

24. Yankees (.549)

25. Brewers (.556)

26. Phillies (.568)

27. Red Sox (.586)

28. Rays (.599)

*28a. Yankees (for not signing G. Cole)

29. Cubs (.602)

30. Angels (.617)

[Team Canada]

Boy, I'm glad the Dodgers managed to pull out 16th. I would be surprised if we don't end up with 3 1's and 2 sandwich picks.

[And That]

The Brewers will draft 25th, the same position they held when I started this thread (although behind the Mets at the time), and I'm not even going to bother looking up the last time they picked that late.

The last time the Brewers had the 25th overall pick, it was 1982 and they selected...

 

Dale Sveum.

 

Other 25ish notables include Jeff D'Amico (23rd) and Kelly Wunsch (26th) in '93, Alex Fernandez (24th) in '88, and Dan Plesac (26th) in '83.

[TheCrew07]

I'm happy that all of my potential destinations for Sheets and Sabathia are in the bottom 16... it will be weird drafting this low, I didn't follow the drafts at all pre bf.net

[Never Outhustled]

Boy, I'm glad the Dodgers managed to pull out 16th. I would be surprised if we don't end up with 3 1's and 2 sandwich picks.

Don't forget Shouse, we'll get a sandwich pick for him too. He's good, but Stetter makes him expendable. Draftday 2009 will be a blast.

[Team Canada]

I dunno, I wouldn't be shocked if they keep 'em both. He's been so solid.

[colbyjack]

A few changes given the Tigers losing yesterday and the Twins losing today. Remember, all tie-breakers are awarded to the team that has been crappier longer.

 

1. Nationals (.366)

2. Mariners (.377)

3. Padres (.389)

4. Pirates (.414)

5. Orioles (.422)

6. Giants (.444)

7. Braves(.444)

8. Reds (.457)

9. Tigers (.457)

*9a. Nationals (for not signing A. Crow)

10. Rockies (.457)

11. Royals (.463)

12. A's (.466)

13. Rangers (.488)

14. Indians (.500)

15. D-Backs (.506)

16. Dodgers (.519)

17. Marlins (.522)

18. Cardinals (.531)

19. Blue Jays (.531)

20. Astros (.534)

21. Twins (.540)

22. White Sox (.546)

23. Mets (.549)

24. Yankees (.549)

25. Brewers (.556)

26. Phillies (.568)

27. Red Sox (.586)

28. Rays (.599)

*28a. Yankees (for not signing G. Cole)

29. Cubs (.602)

30. Angels (.617)

[jerrytek]

Remember that the Mariners have still not signed Josh Fields, even though (as a senior) they have until next summer to do so. However, the talks between the M's and Scott Boras seem to be at a complete standstill, and there is a good chance they will just take the compensation pick. When the M's bring in a new GM, he/she will have to decide if a college closer is worth a top pick. Given the M's situation, you could make a great argument that not signing Fields would be the best option.

 

Thus, the draft order would look like this:

 

1. Nationals (.366)

2. Mariners (.377)

3. Padres (.389)

4. Pirates (.414)

5. Orioles (.422)

6. Giants (.444)

7. Braves(.444)

8. Reds (.457)

9. Tigers (.457)

*9a. Nationals (for not signing A. Crow)

10. Rockies (.457)

11. Royals (.463)

12. A's (.466)

13. Rangers (.488)

14. Indians (.500)

15. D-Backs (.506)

16. Dodgers (.519)

17. Marlins (.522)

18. Cardinals (.531)

19. Blue Jays (.531)

20. Astros (.534)

*20a. Mariners (for not signing J. Fields)

21. Twins (.540)

22. White Sox (.546)

23. Mets (.549)

24. Yankees (.549)

25. Brewers (.556)

26. Phillies (.568)

27. Red Sox (.586)

28. Rays (.599)

*28a. Yankees (for not signing G. Cole)

29. Cubs (.602)

30. Angels (.617)

[craig712]

I have a question that I think fits here... If the Yankees sign Tex and CC, do they lose both of their first rounders or is their second pick protected in any way?

[colbyjack]

The Yankees would not lose the first-rounder they gained from not signing Gerrit Cole. Compensation picks do not exchange hands. The Yankees would lose their first-rounder to the team that held the higher ranked free agent, which would be the Brewers and Sabathia (I don't think any free agent projected to have a higher Elias ranking than Sabathia's projected number), and they would lose their 2nd rounder to the Angels. Their second pick is not protected in any way.

[GagneCY03]

Hey CJ, long time no post. Here's a question: will the free agent compensation system be adjusted due to the extra picks? Will it still be the top 15 picks that are protected or will it be 16 because of there being 33 picks?

[colbyjack]

No, I don't think the comp picks come into play at all determining who is among the top 15 teams and who are among the bottom. That is why the picks are listed as 9a, 20a and 28a, as you can't count the Nationals twice just because they're twice as bad as most teams http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

 

I know you were keeping your fingers crossed that the Dodgers could sign a Type A FA without losing their first-round pick.

 

As for the Mariners and the possibility of signing Joshua Fields as it pertains to draft pick compensation, I guess I have assumed all along that he will eventually signed. That of course could change with Jack Z. taking over the Ms, but I still think they manage to make that signing happen. The two sides aren't that far apart, and Fields would be wise to take the money and start his professional career. He's not exactly a spring chicken when it comes to draft eligible players.

[jerrytek]

Thanks Patrick,

 

I think a lot of M's fans are hoping that Fields goes to indy ball and back into the draft. That was an odd pick at the time it was made, and, considering the M's situation now, is even worse. Rebuilding clubs just don't need to be taking college relievers with the 20th overall pick, even if that slot is pretty consistent with his talent level.

 

Knowing Jack Z's tendencies pretty well, do think he would be more or less likely to sign him?

 

The other thing the M's have going for them are two comp picks if Ibanez leaves, which is pretty likely. If the M's don't sign Fields, they could have five picks in the first two rounds. That would really help Zduriencik restock a fairly weak farm system. However, it would require a huge draft budget to sign that many high picks. I would almost rather see them sign Fields if it would mean that they have more money to use in the later rounds of the draft next year.

 

Oh, by the way, that piece you wrote that was posted on USSMariner was great. I have been reading forums and draft coverage at this site for a few years, and know that people here hold Jack Z in pretty high regard. This was the first site I visited after the hiring was announced. It is nice to know that hard-core fans respect him so much. After sitting through the Bavasi era, the Mariners need to make drastic changes, particularly in talent evaluation (especially at the ML level). We are pretty optimistic that Zduriencik will be a great hire.

[trwi7]

Knowing Jack Z's tendencies pretty well, do think he would be more or less likely to sign him?

Less likely to sign him. No doubt in my mind.

[colbyjack]

Hey jerrytek, thanks for joining us. I've been watching USS Mariner from afar for several years now, and have been talking baseball with Dave for long before USSM or even this site were created.

 

Anyway, I'm not sure that having Jack Z. as your GM will play that big of a difference in Fields getting signed. The one thing that could play against Fields signing is the comp pick, like you pointed out. Jack could be looking to put his hand-print on the team, and having one extra pick would allow him to do so sooner rather than later.

 

On the flip side, Fields is still a very talented player, just an odd one for the Ms in the position that they were. He was actually a favorite around here for the Brewers pick. I really don't know why Fields (and Boras) are pushing for so much more money. He's already delayed the beginning of his pro career once before, and I just don't see him making that much more money by waiting.

 

Although I talk as if Jack will actually be making the picks. My understanding is that you already have a scouting dep't. in place, and I'm not sure how much he's going to dictate the pick. When I mentioned that the Ms wouldn't draft another college reliever under his watch, that didn't have to do with Fields or the pick as much as it did Zduriencik's draft style. The Ms take a pair of projected relievers the past three years with their top picks isn't going to happen again. Zduriencik while in Milwaukee was always looking for a home run, particularly with his earlly picks, meaning he targets players with the potential of a staff ace or starting impact hitter.

[jerrytek]

Thanks for the comments Patrick.

 

It looks more and more like the M's under Zduriencik are going to adopt a similar drafting strategy. The M's previous scouting director, Bob Fontaine, was fired recently. Zduriencik has brought in Tony Blengino and Tom McNamara, and most think that one of them will be the new scouting director.

 

Interestingly, Jack Z retained Bob Engle, who is the M's international scouting director (and a damn good one). International scouting is one area where the M's do really well, and it is great to see that Zduriencik is trying to keep that system intact.

 

By the way, do you know anything about Blengino and McNamara? Blengino is getting a lot of press because of his sabermetric background. A lot of people were disappointed that the M's didn't sign a new-school stats-oriented GM, so Blengino's addition was seen by many as a good sign. Any comments/opinions on these guys?

[colbyjack]

Blengino was an area scout for three years IIRC (I think 2003-2005), working in the New England region. While he was there, he definitely made a strong impression on Zduriencik, convincing him to draft players such as Mark Rogers, Angel Salome and Steve Garrison, as well as key DFEs such as Darren Ford, Zach Braddock and Nick Tyson. He was added to the front office and became Zduriencik's right-hand man, who supervised/crosschecker the team's Canadian drafting efforts and also frequently traveled with Zduriencik to see some of the bigger players across the nation. Blengino is definitely an example of Zduriencik's talent for finding diamonds in the rough when it comes to those that have a knack for finding talent, as there is much more than just a statistical background there.

 

McNamara recently returned to the Brewers to take over the role of East Coast Crosschecker, but he was previously an area scout for the Brewers that covered Florida, and was given somewhat of a going away gift prior to his departure after the 2002 draft. He is credited with fighting for the Fielder pick, and IIRC took a few other early picks in that '02 draft credited to McNamara.

 

I'm glad to hear the Ms retained their international guy. They definitely didn't have any problems there.

 

As for the new-age GM, I think you'll be pleased with Zduriencik, and if he doesn't succeed in turning the team around, it certainly won't be due to a lack of effort. I don't really understand why so many people get bent out of shape wanting someone with a strong statistical background, as the key to baseball from a front office perspective is identifying talent. Stats may be pretty to look at, but ultimately you need someone that can look at the players to determine if the numbers they put can translate to the highest and most important level, and no statistic can quantify that. Ideally you have a mix of both, and since Doug Melvin definitely understands the numbers side of the game, I'm sure that trickled down to Zduriencik as well over the years.