The Infield -- 2009 & Beyond

[endaround]

Yes he will. Established players in their primes almost never move. Hall moving off shortstop is not the norm. If he is moved other teams will see that Brewers, the team that sees him everyday, don't think of him as a shortstop. Hardy complained about hitting 7th, moving off SS would be a firestorm.

[BillScottCanRake]

I guess I don't really understand the notion of JJ losing money by playing 3B for the Crew. He's been a SS his whole career, you think by playing a year or two of 3B he'll all of a sudden forget how to play SS so much that a team looking for a SS when the Brewers are ready to move him won't be at all interested?

 

Will Hardy "forget" how to play shortstop? I doubt it. He probably won't lose the physical tools that allow him to play the position (a more likely, tho less clever eventuality), either.

 

But, what if Hardy goes to arbitration after the 2009 season, after having played third base? What if Hardy spends the first two months of the season doing his best Bill Hall 2007-impersonation? The Brewers would be smart to point out that JJ is only the 9th best offensive third basemen in the league (and not the 3rd best shortstop he was in 2008), and an arbitrator might just agree with the team on that. And, if they do, that has will cost JJ some money.

 

What if, after the 2010 season, JJ becomes a FA after spending two years at third (or second)? Will GMs understand he can probably still play short? Yeah, of course they will- they won't forget his 2007-08 seasons any more than JJ will forget how to play the position. At the same time, GMs have to take into consideration the fact that he hasn't played the position in two years. A GM is going to ask himself "What if he can't play short anymore? Is that why the Brewers moved him? We haven't seen him there, so we think he can, but what if he can't? We know that this other guy can because we've watched him do it the last three years."

 

I understand that anytime you try to project how a player will play in the future there is always doubt, and there is always a margin for error, but isn't there a little more doubt when Hardy a player is stuck at another position for two years? The more a sure-thing a player is, the less doubt about his ability to produce, the more money that player is worth.

 

Heck, maybe none of that will really be an issue. It could well be that Hardy sees what happened to Hall and tells the Brewers he doesn't want any part of it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Its not forgone, but his power has slipped and his defense has always been dreadful Add to that he'll be 36 in two years. I could see the Yankees trying to move him to 3B or CF but I can't see him staying at SS.

 

(This is not a shot at end, just agreeing with him)

 

If you've seen Jeter more than once or twice this season, you can see the decline is looking like it's going to be fast & ugly. He's a shell of his former self at this point. I could genuinely see the Yanks re-signing him & getting him time at DH down the road... he's a Yankee Legend! OMG!

[piccione88]

I think the Brewers best option is to trade Hardy for pitching, since Hall will not get you anything other than another bad contract, and Weeks value has also fallen pretty far since the start of the year. Moving Hardy hurts his value on the open market, at shortstop he is a great offensive player, at third he is merley above average. I would also like to see us pick up Blalock if his option is declined which appears likely. Blalock has his problems, he is not a good defender, and you are gambling that he can give 500+ at-bats. Blalock does however kill right handers, and can be had on a short term deal because of those injuries. So my infield would be:

1B: Fielder, 2B:Weeks, 3B:Blalock, SS: Escobar

 

Hall could be traded if we land Blalock. I am not saying just give him away, but if someone is willing to take on his contract(not likely) then you have to do it. Hall would be nice insurance, but 6.8 would be too much for a platoon partner/ super-sub, who cant start against 80% of right handers.

[kramnoj]

They are not going to trade Hardy this winter and they aren't going to move him to another position. I am positive they will offer him a 3-5 deal in the winter. If he accepts it, Escobar will be traded before the end of 2009. If he rejects any long term contract, then they'll entertain offers for Hardy after 2009.

 

You state this with a lot of certainty. Is this based on things you've heard from the Brewers FO, or just speculation on your part?

[joepepsi]

They are not going to trade Hardy this winter and they aren't going to move him to another position. I am positive they will offer him a 3-5 deal in the winter. If he accepts it, Escobar will be traded before the end of 2009. If he rejects any long term contract, then they'll entertain offers for Hardy after 2009.

 

You state this with a lot of certainty. Is this based on things you've heard from the Brewers FO, or just speculation on your part?

I'm just being logical. You don't trade your best player, especially one who you still hold rights to for two more seasons, unless you intend to go into full rebuilding mode. The Brewers will continue to be a playoff caliber team in 2009. They have t fix 3B, find another starting pitcher, and re-tool the bullpen. They can achieve those things without tradig Hardy.

[bubblegum tate]

I'm also in the trade Fielder camp. Sure, he won't bring as much as he would have last year, but his value could drop much, much further, and there are very few left who believe he has any long-term future with this organization. Then either bring in a cheap, stopgap (Hatteberg-type) 1B either as part of the trade or as a FA, as well as Branyan. Let the following battle it out in spring:

 

For 1B: Nelson/Stopgap/Branyan. If you're feeling crazy, maybe even let Mike Rivera in as a platoon candidate

 

For 3B: Hall/Branyan/Gamel/

 

I'm not opposed to trading Hall if we get a decent offer, but I don't think we're going to get a decent offer. I'm more willing than most to give Weeks at least another half season at 2B, although signing Hudson is intriguing. Hardy stays at SS, Escobar gets a full year in AAA.

 

Speculating beyond 2009 is a tough task, but in the spirit of wild speculation I'd say Hardy gets traded in the 09/10 offseason to make room for Escobar, Gamel gets an full year to prove he can play 3rd, shows he can't, and then moves to 1st, Weeks somehow continues to hold 2nd, and 3rd is manned by some random FA after Gamel moves. Brent Brewer replaces replaces the random FA in mid 2011 and puts up the best career numbers of any Zduriencik-drafted infielder.

[kramnoj]

You don't trade your best player

 

You are saying that Hardy is the team's best player? Or are you saying he's the best player at the position for them?

 

They have t fix 3B

 

It has been suggested that 3B can be fixed by moving Hardy there. He has the tools to be good there defensively. I think there's a decent chance that Hardy could be the best player the Brewers could put at 3B next year, actually. If you want to move him and he resists because of money, try to find a middle ground for a few years as you suggested. If he still resists, the team has to look at how they want to deploy the talent they have. There are just so many options that could involve, as has been pointed out here.

 

I'm also unsure why you are so confident that Escobar will be traded if Hardy is signed to stay at SS. Escobar could certainly use some seasoning at AAA next year, but depending on how Weeks does next year, Escobar could be the teams best option at 2B in 2010.

[sbrylski]

The only way Hardy probably moves positions is if it goes hand in hand with a 5 year extention at short stop money.

 

I think its pretty obvious the Brewers need to make some type of trade to shore up the rotation for next season. I think there's a couple different options they can dangle, and whatever yields the best net gain, Melvin will take. Speculating on who's the one(s) that should go is rather inaccurate when you're adding speculation of what they could net on the market on top of that.

 

There are two great things about the Brewer's situation right now - organizational depth (catchers, two SS, plethora of OF options), and money coming off the books.

[joepepsi]

You don't trade your best player

 

You are saying that Hardy is the team's best player? Or are you saying he's the best player at the position for them?

 

I realize Braun is the "franchise" pplayer, but given the offense Hardy has put up this year while playing ss, I think it's fair to call him the either the best player or the MVP of the team , as far as position players go.

 

They have t fix 3B

 

It has been suggested that 3B can be fixed by moving Hardy there. He has the tools to be good there defensively. I think there's a decent chance that Hardy could be the best player the Brewers could put at 3B next year, actually. If you want to move him and he resists because of money, try to find a middle ground for a few years as you suggested. If he still resists, the team has to look at how they want to deploy the talent they have. There are just so many options that could involve, as has been pointed out here.

That's certainly a viable option. I just think few teams will make defensive shifts unless a player's is defense is so poor it's costing lots of wins. I just think when a team is playoff caliber they tend to make moves that are less risky. Moving your All Star caliber ss to 3rd and handing the starting ss job to a AA rookie is the sort of thing a rebuilding team does. Keeping your ss where he is and trying to upgrade 3B with a "proven" veteran is something a competitive team is more likely to do.

I'm also unsure why you are so confident that Escobar will be traded if Hardy is signed to stay at SS. Escobar could certainly use some seasoning at AAA next year, but depending on how Weeks does next year, Escobar could be the teams best option at 2B in 2010.

That's certainly possible, especially if Escobar plays like an All Star in AAA next year. At that point trading Weeks or Hardy could be the better move. My point is, if Hardy is signed on for 3-4 more years you may get the most value for next year by trading Escobar as part of a deal for quality starting pitcher or 3B.

 

In the end I guess it depends on if you think the Brewers should build on this year's success, re-tool, and go for it again in 2009 with largely the same team, or if they should take a step back in 2009 and risk a minor rebuild with the hope for a stronger team in 2010. I think most teams will continue to "go for it" each year, until it's clear a current core group has peaked.

[kramnoj]

I realize Braun is the "franchise" pplayer, but given the offense Hardy has put up this year while playing ss, I think it's fair to call him the either the best player or the MVP of the team , as far as position players go.

 

Braun has 20 more Runs Created than Hardy this year. I don't think the defensive contribution is enough to make up for 2 wins worth of value. But it is reasonably close, with the way that Hardy has stayed strong and Braun has declined.

 

I just think few teams will make defensive shifts unless a player's is defense is so poor it's costing lots of wins. I just think when a team is playoff caliber they tend to make moves that are less risky.

 

IMO, keeping Hall at 3B is more risky than moving Hardy there and bringing up Escobar.

 

In the end I guess it depends on if you think the Brewers should build on this year's success, re-tool, and go for it again in 2009 with largely the same team, or if they should take a step back in 2009 and risk a minor rebuild with the hope for a stronger team in 2010.

 

The Brewers are going to have to re-tool regardless of what their goal is. Their ability to get value out of retooling will depend mostly on what FAs will get, what teams will do in the trade market. Using only the players in the system, if the team moves Escobar to SS, moves Hardy to 3B and makes Hall a super sub, I think they are likely to increase their defense and shouldn't expect to lose offense. If they do lose some offense, it should still be outweighed by the defensive increase.

[BADGERJOBOB]

1. Escobar should be used as a trading chip for a good quality starting pitcher next year.

2. Sign Hardy to an extension.

3. Trade Weeks and see what it takes to get Roberts here. Hopefully not a lot as he is up there in age but can be a good lead-off hitter for the next 2 years.

4. Keep Hall/Branyan platoon for one more year and keep Prince at first. Determine if Gamel can handle third base.

5. If Gamel can handle third base, bring him up during the season or 2010. If Gamel can't, trade Prince at trade deadline and move Gamel to first. Then pickup a veteran thirdbasemen that plays exceptional defense as hopefully catcher, cf and second base will have better offensive production for 2010 and beyond.

[TooLiveBrew]

It has been suggested that 3B can be fixed by moving Hardy there. He has the tools to be good there defensively.

 

Hardy has said (via Melvin's comments) that he will not be moving off SS. Imho this point is moot until/unless J.J. changes his mind.

[Postseason2006]

Who is running the team? You tell the guy to move. Sorry but this is why Doug and Ned deserve the door!

[kramnoj]

It has been suggested that 3B can be fixed by moving Hardy there. He has the tools to be good there defensively.

 

Hardy has said (via Melvin's comments) that he will not be moving off SS. Imho this point is moot until/unless J.J. changes his mind.

 

I'm aware of that. If the Brewers felt that the best way to field a team was to put Hardy at 3B and Escobar at SS, I tell Hardy that, and I suggest he move. If he resists because of money, I make him an offer that would represent his expected value. If he declines, I trade him if I can find a good deal. I don't want someone on my team that cares more about themselves than about the team. Players better than Hardy have been moved. It's not common, but it's nowhere near unprecedented.

 

BTW, I know you don't trust current defensive stats. I'll give you more ammunition for that. Chris Dial's NL OPD stat shows Hardy as being the least defensive value at SS in the NL through early September. Milwaukee 3B do rank well, so there could be some of the positioning effect that has been discussed.

[logan82]

Is Escobar expected to hit well enough that between his offense and defense he would be better than either Hall(and his platoon mate) or Weeks. I think if the answer is no then he stays in AAA or gets traded. I don't think Escobar would be a better option than anything we currently have on our MLB roster. We don't have to bring him up at all next year and I think the best option would be to leave hm in AAA and bring him up if one of our infielder fails next year. It is easy to bring a guy in AAA up to play another position. He will be happy just to be in the majors.

[kramnoj]

Is Escobar expected to hit well enough that between his offense and defense he would be better than either Hall(and his platoon mate) or Weeks.

 

Escobar is regarded as a star defensively, a player that can be expected to be a +15 or +20 Run defensive player. If you project offense and defense, I would much rather have Hall as a sub and Alcides at SS.

 

We don't have to bring him up at all next year and I think the best option would be to leave hm in AAA and bring him up if one of our infielder fails next year.

 

Escobar could certainly use time at AAA. Who knows, Hall could have his Lasik procedure and return to be a good hitter. I just think it's one of the things to consider. One thing though is that I highly doubt Hardy gets moved in season. That's why if the team doesn't think that Hall will improve, I think they should make any big changes in the offseason.

[logan82]

I'll be honest. I am not a big fan of Hall. I never liked his defense as I thought it was very uneven much like Weeks(he makes spectacular plays and messes up easy ones). Now he doesn't even have his offense to fall back on. I was willing to write last year off as a down year but it is looking more and more like 2005-2006 were the aberration years. I have no problem having Hall as a backup, but relying on him as a starter worries me. Maybe Lasik helps him.

 

I don't see an internal solution being available by the start of next year. Escobar and Gamel are close, but I still think the best thing for the players and the franchise would be to leave both in AAA for 1/2 or more of next year. I doubt we can improve on more than one infield position. 3B makes the most sense right now. If we can get a long term solution we can move Gamel around in AAA to play either OF and/or 1B. Either that or we get a short term solution and see how Escobar and Gamel develop. Moving Gamel around makes Hart or Fielder trade bait for the next offseason. My choice would be Fielder since I think his defense makes all our other defenders, who are poor, that much worse.

[TooLiveBrew]

Players better than Hardy have been moved. It's not common, but it's nowhere near unprecedented.

 

That's very true. The problem I have with it (& ideally, Hardy would play 3B for the Crew) is that I'm not sure if we could improve on Hardy's value to the team overall. His range isn't huge, but his hands are soft and his arm is strong. If he's not interested in moving to 3B, I'm not sure that Escobar makes more sense. I don't think Hardy's as streaky as he can seem at the plate.

 

I think a .350 OBP is sustainable for J.J., and honestly throwing Escobar in at 2B makes sense. Covers Prince's lack of range much better than Weeks or Durham, and would be a substantial improvement as a DP partner for Hardy. A player as young & inexperienced as Escobar probably doesn't have as much clout when it comes to where he plays. I'm a big Weeks believer, but if Escobar were an option over Rickie, I'd let Alcides take his shot... maybe try Rickie at 3B a bit.

[danzig6767]

I'm a big Weeks believer, but if Escobar were an option over Rickie, I'd let Alcides take his shot... maybe try Rickie at 3B a bit.

Weeks at third? Watching Rickie attempt to play defense, i would see him being even a big disaster defensively at third than he is at second. His throwing mechanics are already bad at second and that's a shorter throw, he'd likely be an error machine at third. Besides his poor throwing, he usually struggles badly on hard hit balls where he has to move to either side, Weeks would get plenty of those at third, i'd bet on him being near Braun bad if he played third.

 

When the team moved Hall to CF last year, i just couldn't grasp why Weeks wasn't the one tried there. Weeks had many more weak areas as an infielder and he is faster than Hall. I'd compare Weeks defensively to say good PG's in basketball compared to poor ones. Quality point guards have natural instincts at that position you can't really teach. In many ways, it can be the same for defense with baseball players who lack natural instincts. Weeks plays 2nd like Podsednik played CF for us. Scotty was a great athlete would could fly, but he often misjudged balls off the bat, took poor angles, and had a terrible arm. No matter how hard he tried, Pods would never be a good CF because he lacked the natural instincts that good CF's have at instantly being able to read the ball off the bat and take proper angles wihout even thinking about it.

 

Same with Weeks. Guys like Hardy and Counsell aren't great athletes, but both are naturally instinctive as defenders. They without thinking play hops properly. When they dive or move to either side, balls don't consistenly go under or off their gloves. They throw with proper mechanics which leads to consistency in their throws being on target. Weeks does none of this and i don't blame him for that, by all accounts the guy is a very hard worker. Coaches can only teach an athlete so much in regards to holes in their game, regardless how hard that player works. I'd love to be proven wrong, but i'll be very surprised if Rickie ever gets beyong being a liability on defense so long as he's an infielder, so he better rake at the plate or he's overall more liability than asset as a player.

[joepepsi]

I'll be honest. I am not a big fan of Hall. I never liked his defense as I thought it was very uneven much like Weeks(he makes spectacular plays and messes up easy ones). Now he doesn't even have his offense to fall back on. I was willing to write last year off as a down year but it is looking more and more like 2005-2006 were the aberration years. I have no problem having Hall as a backup, but relying on him as a starter worries me. Maybe Lasik helps him.

 

I don't see an internal solution being available by the start of next year. Escobar and Gamel are close, but I still think the best thing for the players and the franchise would be to leave both in AAA for 1/2 or more of next year. I doubt we can improve on more than one infield position. 3B makes the most sense right now. If we can get a long term solution we can move Gamel around in AAA to play either OF and/or 1B. Either that or we get a short term solution and see how Escobar and Gamel develop. Moving Gamel around makes Hart or Fielder trade bait for the next offseason. My choice would be Fielder since I think his defense makes all our other defenders, who are poor, that much worse.

This is what I have been trying to say throughout this topic. Thank you!

 

Hall should no longer be considered an everyday player or even a regular part of a platoon. Barring a complete makeover of the lineup, something within the realm of possibility given the last two weeks of play, the only position to improve on is 3B. I think you try to do that in 2009 by acquiring a veteran who can play good defense and provide a consistent bat.

[Fatter than Joey]

Here are my thoughts --

 

1.) I'd rather trade Hardy to another team than move him to 2b or 3b on our team, if Escobar is ready to go -- trade JJ, it would maximize our return.

 

2.) Trade Prince before he eats more Doritos.

 

3.) Move Weeks to the OF, I don't think he brings enough O, to cancel out his D. I think he could be a decent CF.

 

4.) Find some guy to play 3b -- I'd be content with Hall+Branyan though.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hall should no longer be considered an everyday player or even a regular part of a platoon.

 

I couldn't disagree more with the latter. Hall once again slaughtered LHP this season, and the value a platoon of Branyan & Hall at 3B would likely be All-Star caliber production (& could possibly border on MVP-caliber).

 

Hall continuing to get regular PAs v. RHP should stop the second Yost is axed. I sure hope so, anyway.

 

 

I'd love to be proven wrong, but i'll be very surprised if Rickie ever gets beyong being a liability on defense so long as he's an infielder, so he better rake at the plate or he's overall more liability than asset as a player.

 

Good post (as usual) danzig. I was just kinda thinking out loud on Rickie at 3B... it's gotten to the point where, in terms of defense, Rickie doesn't have much more room (realistically) for improvment at 2B, defensively. Reminds me of that great line from Marcellus Wallace in Pulp Fiction: "if you were gonna make it, you would have made it before now." As a Weeks apologist, I of course inherently believe that he will hit enough to justify a role at 2B/wherever.

[joepepsi]

Hall should no longer be considered an everyday player or even a regular part of a platoon.

 

I couldn't disagree more with the latter. Hall once again slaughtered LHP this season, and the value a platoon of Branyan & Hall at 3B would likely be All-Star caliber production (& could possibly border on MVP-caliber).

 

Hall continuing to get regular PAs v. RHP should stop the second Yost is axed. I sure hope so, anyway.

But that's the problem. Ever since Earl Weaver retired there doesn't seem to a manager capable of strict platooning. Hall has nearly 100 plate appearances since August 1 and his OPS is .599, striking out 1/3rd of the time. I haven't been keeping track; is this all because he's still playing against RHP?

[TooLiveBrew]

Not sure how to get splits for Hall v. LHP in a specific timeframe, but on the season, his line v. LHP so far is .317/.377/.537/.915

 

Just for more Weeks 'apologizing', his OBP on the season has climbed up to .340, and his performance v. LHP (.259/.392/.430/.821) has been encouraging. However, that's about what I hoped for/expected from Rickie overall heading into 2008. In addition, his (small sample) line so far in September is .303/.439/.455/.894. As much as he's been raked over the coals (often justifiably so), Rickie's offense has been fine for months now.