The Infield -- 2009 & Beyond

[lodiness]

I'm normally a pretty big Weeks fan, but his defense lately has been dismal (as if the 1st half wasn't bad enough). In the off season, I'd like to see a completely revamped defense. Trade Fielder, Weeks, and Hall (If that would even be possible, which I doubt.) In an ideal world, I would like to see Gamel at 1st, Find someone at second possibly Roberts from Baltimore, Escobar at SS, and Hardy at 3rd(although doubt that would happen). I think that would be a pretty solid infield, although you would have a pretty big learning curve at first, but could he really be any worse than Fielder. That or possibly try to go hire a big bat at 3rd, but I think that putting Escobar anywhere other than SS is a waste.

[fleehaw]

Unfortunately, I think we see the same offense as this year. I say, unfortunately, because 3B is a huge black hole. Weeks has also been disappointing, but I think that has some to do with his expectations being so high.

 

There is a guy that I haven't seen mentioned in this thread yet, Blake DeWitt. This well may have dried up considering he's now manning 2B in light of Kent's injury. However, the Dodgers do have a propensity for veterans. And believe it or not, they may have some interest in Bill Hall. Why? Hall can play 3B, SS, 2B and OF. Blake, Ramirez, and Furcal are all free agents. Acquiring Hall could give them flexibility in who they want/are able to resign.

 

DeWitt is young, cheap, appears to play better D at 3B, and he's left handed. His acquisition would make it easier to keep Escobar and Gamel in the minors all year. Hall, some $$$, and a prospect might entice the Dodgers, but I doubt it.

 

I'm usually one for wheelin'-n-dealin', but why all the Hardy trade talk? He's arguably been one of the Brewers best players this year and he's under team control for a couple more seasons. Escobar has yet to taste AAA. Escobar's play in AAA and not his potential should force the Brewers hand at SS. That being said, I could definitely see a Hardy and/or Fielder trade after the '09 season. Turning them into cheap, league ready talent at another position of need.

[Team Canada]

For all the discussion of shifting Hardy, I would be shocked if he agrees. Doug himself as stated that Hardy wouldn't do it (and why would he?).

[JohnBriggs12]

Hall is not likely to be traded. He's owed $15.7 million minimum over 2 years. He's going to figure on this team somewhere so we better hope that he rebounds enough to be at least half of a platoon somewhere. If not, he's expensive insurance for anywhere in the IF and OF. Personally I think he can rebound at least to a .250 hitter with some HR power. Hall needs a mental break more than anything and if he comes into next season in the right frame of mind who knows? As miserable as this season has been for him, he's had some moments.

 

So with whom and where do you platoon him? Do you let Branyan and Lamb compete in spring to be the stopgap until Gamel? Bring in someone else? Move Hall back to CF and move Hardy to 3B with Escobar at SS?

 

Who knows what the deal is with Weeks. I think he has one more season to prove himself or he'll be traded for what little value he might have left, or frankly become a non-tender candidate.

 

This figures to be one interesting offseason.

[BrewCrewForever]

For all the discussion of shifting Hardy, I would be shocked if he agrees. Doug himself as stated that Hardy wouldn't do it (and why would he?).

Why wouldn't he though? I guess I don't get it, would his value not be as high if not higher as a 2B with his power? He won't do it that is fine, as long as Escobar would.

[endaround]

Because in two years he is the top free agent short stop, at 2B, he's another guy. In two years Derek Jeter's deal with the Yankees will expire. If you're Hardy's agent, you have to know your client is the top SS FA and the Yankees will be shopping. You're looking at at least 8 years/$110m in today's terms.

[BillScottCanRake]

For all the discussion of shifting Hardy, I would be shocked if he agrees. Doug himself as stated that Hardy wouldn't do it (and why would he?).

Why wouldn't he though? I guess I don't get it, would his value not be as high if not higher as a 2B with his power? He won't do it that is fine, as long as Escobar would.

 

I brought this up in this post. Basically, he goes from the third best offensive SS to the sixth best offensive 2B or 3B. That, when combined with SS being a premium defensive position (even tho he's not an elite defensive SS), and JJ could end up losing a lot of money moving to another position.

[BrewCrewForever]

Ah, I see. Thanks for the info guys. Well then I just hope Escobar is cool with playing 2B because I would just love to have both.

[joepepsi]

While they could improve on Weeks at 2nd I think they'd have to pay too much to get someone incrementally better. It would have to be a change of scenery type thing, like Weeks and a couple good pitching prospects for one year of Roberts. It's just not worth it. Besides, the difference between Weeks and an average 2B isn't near as much as the difference between Hall and a middling 3B.

 

They probably are stuck with Hall. On the other hand, sometimes teams will trade bad contracts. The Orioles have a gaping hole at ss and no one in the minors to inherit the position. If Hall can still play ss and hit .250, seems like a tall order for him these days, the Orioles might be satisfied to take him on and a decent prospect for Mora. Same with Beltre. Blalock is an interesting idea. Another lefty in the lineup should help. Rangers have an option for next year, so expect him to become a free agent.

 

At any rate, I think the only position they'll be able to afford upgrading and the only one that desperately needs it is the automatic out at 3B. Even if Hall can't be moved and is stuck on the team he can no longer be considered for an every day job. But you do worse than him and Kapler as righties off the bench. Add in any combination of Branyan, Durham, and Lamb, and the bench is all right.

 

If you only worry about upgrading 3B, then you can spend more time working on the pitching, which is the real area of concern.

[edod]

I'm inclined to look at this from a financial point of view.

Premise #1 The Brewers are still a small market team.

Premise #2 The owner and GM have repeatedly said they have a plan and will stick to it. This plan is similar to what the A's an Twins have been doing for about the last 10 years.

Premise #3 They are losing money this season. (If you believe what Mark A. has said)

 

It's strange projecting this team because so many outcomes of this year may still affect next year; this is very unfamiliar territory. I think many of the decisions hinge on another. Will the Brewers really be in contention to resign either Sheets or Sabitha, meaning there is a legitimate chance they will have one or both next year? This question can be affected by how far the Brewers go this year.

 

If they end up with neither they will have at least one big spot in the rotation to fill (assuming Yo fills the other) and the A's/Twins model indicates you build from within or trade from organizational strengths for youth.

 

People have asked why they would trade JJ when he has been the best all around player this year. Financially speaking, he has the most value now. With two more years of arby left, two straight all-star quality years, and a viable replacement behind him, he is the most sensible chip to spin. Financial wisdom says you trade at the highest point of value, not the lowest. I see next year as being a rebuilding year where the team lowers payroll to save for the next push and starts rebuilding value and cutting losses. Weeks, Fielder, Hall, Gallarado, and just about everyone in the bull pen needs to reestablish their value. Weeks and Hall are at particularly lower values than they could be given time, and the team has time with both.

 

Hence I see an Infield of Hall, Escobar, Weeks and Fielder next year. I'd give Hall three monthes to build value and either stick if Gamel doesn't improve in AAA, get traded at a higher value mid-season or be cut loose (not literally, super-expensive-sub). I'd give Weeks the year. I don't have sources, but I keep hearing or reading that scouts to this season, still think he has the greatest total potential of anyone on the team.

 

In the mean time, JJ gets traded for a Matt Cain, or a youngish starter with big upside and you throw Escobar in the fire, as they did with Hardy and let him develop in the majors.

This value building extentends into the bullpen. You've got a bunch of arms that need to establish value like Dillard and Stetter, while Riske and maybe even Cappy need to reestablish. I couldn't see this club being favored for a wild-card with that many question marks and I don't see a small market team buying their way into it.

 

This is how I look at it, and suspect management may look at it some similar fashion. It'll be a lot more competitive rebuilding, but rebuilding none-the-less.

 

Edit: And I forgot to address the position movement. I don't consider this an option. It's a very bad organizational habit. It can tick off the players and undo some of their development. The Braun move was sensible, but you'd have to wonder if Hall isn't suffering from all his movements. His offensive performance was best when playing his natural position, SS. Hardy and Escobar are SS, not 3B or 2B, it would be a disservice to them to move them and they probably know that. There is more to it than numbers, you have to consider their attitudes towards the team and their place on it.

[fleehaw]

People have asked why they would trade JJ when he has been the best all around player this year. Financially speaking, he has the most value now. With two more years of arby left, two straight all-star quality years, and a viable replacement behind him, he is the most sensible chip to spin. Financial wisdom says you trade at the highest point of value, not the lowest.

I agree with most of what you're saying, the sell-high, buy-low philosophy. Where I disagree with you is the viable replacement to Hardy. Escobar is not a sure thing. Jumping him from AA to the majors might be detrimental to his development (or he could fluorish). The 'wise' thing to do would be to play him everyday at AAA and let his play 'force' you into calling him up as opposed to hoping he'll do alright or learn on the fly. Then, next offseason, you look to deal Hardy among others. Hardy's value might not be as high as this offseason, but he'll still command a nice haul and you'd most likely continue to have very good performance at the SS position throughout.

 

Of course, someone could come at you with an offer that you can't refuse...

[BrewCrewForever]

What could Hardy bring in trade right now? A number 1 or a number 2 starter?

[fondybrewfan]

At this point I would totally go for Hardy and Fielder for Lincecum + a prospect

 

I just can't envision a scenario where Hardy and Escobar are on the field at the same time

[silversurferr]

Whatta jigsaw puzzle. I would like to see Roberts at second because he helps the problem with the leadoff spot. How bout Weeks at third? Don't laugh: his biggest problem is turning the DP. At the plate, he has unfulfilled power potential. Put him there, put Roberts at second or bring up Escobar to play SS or second. And unless Escobar is truly dy-no-mite in the field, leave Hardy alone. Third or fourth best offensive shortstop in the NL who is wayyy underrated in the field. He has soft hands, average range, and a great arm. Also, I betcha Billy hits better after he gets his eyes fixed. Enough about Branyan; he's a bench player who hurts the team if he has more than 20 starts.

[nate82]

I brought this up in this post. Basically, he goes from the third best offensive SS to the sixth best offensive 2B or 3B. That, when combined with SS being a premium defensive position (even tho he's not an elite defensive SS), and JJ could end up losing a lot of money moving to another position.

Actually Hardy will make more money by switching to 3B. Reason number 1 he moves from an over crowded elite SS area defensively into a very small list of great defensive 3B. Hardy would probably be in the top 3 defensive 3B in the NL if he moves over to 3B. Wright, Hardy, Zimmerman would be your top 3 defensive 3B in the NL. When looking at the NL SS position Hardy will be near the middle of the pack defensively in the NL for SS. Top 3 NL SS are Tulowitzki, Reyes, Rollins with Ramirez at a close 4th best behind those 3 and don't forget about Yunel Escobar either he is becoming a top SS in the NL also.

 

Hardy will gain money because he will be a contender year after year at 3B compared to his chances of winning that at SS. Awards like the Gold Glove award go a long ways in determining a players worth to a team. This is why Hardy could get more money as a 3B than as a SS.

[TooLiveBrew]

Too bad really. If he had any discipline he would have had an monster career.

 

I think Fielder has displayed the best plate discipline of anyone on the team this season. I really do still think he has one more power burst in him this season.

 

 

I don't have sources, but I keep hearing or reading that scouts to this season, still think he has the greatest total potential of anyone on the team.

 

I can understand why people feel that way. For all his struggles, Rickie has made defensive plays that maybe 5% of the league can make, but the inconsistency has been brutal. To me the offense, at least when considering power too, is the same -- inconsistent, but with flashes of absolute brilliance. Yes, it's early, and yes, it's an arbitrary sample, but so far in September Weeks has posted a .409 OBP & .791 OPS.

 

 

How bout Weeks at third?

 

I've wondered if he would be a better fit at 3B too.

 

 

Enough about Branyan; he's a bench player who hurts the team if he has more than 20 starts.

 

I don't agree. 2008: .252/.340/.588/.928 overall OPS, .282/.375/.658/1.033 v. RHP. Pair that with Hall's .932 '08 OPS v. LHP & career .855 v. LHP, & that's the best platoon a manager could ever hope to get handed on a silver platter.

[endaround]

I brought this up in this post. Basically, he goes from the third best offensive SS to the sixth best offensive 2B or 3B. That, when combined with SS being a premium defensive position (even tho he's not an elite defensive SS), and JJ could end up losing a lot of money moving to another position.

Actually Hardy will make more money by switching to 3B. Reason number 1 he moves from an over crowded elite SS area defensively into a very small list of great defensive 3B. Hardy would probably be in the top 3 defensive 3B in the NL if he moves over to 3B. Wright, Hardy, Zimmerman would be your top 3 defensive 3B in the NL. When looking at the NL SS position Hardy will be near the middle of the pack defensively in the NL for SS. Top 3 NL SS are Tulowitzki, Reyes, Rollins with Ramirez at a close 4th best behind those 3 and don't forget about Yunel Escobar either he is becoming a top SS in the NL also.

 

Hardy has no shot at a gold glove at 3B ,Wright will win them now until the end of his career. And of course of the shortstops you listed only Tulo is really a top notch defender. And you ignore the fact that Hardy's bat just isn't exceptional at 3B and that the Yankees will be looking SS, not 3B in 2 years.

Hardy will gain money because he will be a contender year after year at 3B compared to his chances of winning that at SS. Awards like the Gold Glove award go a long ways in determining a players worth to a team. This is why Hardy could get more money as a 3B than as a SS.

[Gobias Industries]

And you ignore the fact that Hardy's bat just isn't exceptional at 3B and that the Yankees will be looking SS, not 3B in 2 years.

Do you have some kind of inside information on Jeter retiring or the Yankees not interested in resigning him? You make it seem as if it is almost a forgone conclusion.

[endaround]

Its not forgone, but his power has slipped and his defense has always been dreadful Add to that he'll be 36 in two years. I could see the Yankees trying to move him to 3B or CF but I can't see him staying at SS.

[joepepsi]

All this talk about Escobar and Gamel in 2009 is, I think, a misunderstanding of the organization's "plan". The Brewers no longer have to rush players like they did Weeks, Fielder, Braun, and Hardy. In today's Brewer Organization, players like Fielder and Weeks would be spending at least one additional season in the minors, if not two.

 

Doug uses the Twins as his model for organization building. The Twins are notorious for keeping players in the minors for a long time, Joe Mauer notwithstanding. The main reason for this is you don't start the arby clock until the player is ready to contribute. Morneau had 2300 minor plate appearances; Cuddyer, over 2800. Kubel had 1800+, Span 2300+ plate appearances. Contrast that with Weeks, 865 minor league PA, Braun 864, Hardy 1253, Fielder 1881. It's true that Gamel (nearly 2000 PA) and Escobar (2200+) have already had more minor league experience than those four. But it's also clear, even from the perspective of their most supportive posters here, they have things to improve upon before they're ready for the majors. And for heaven's sake, why would start their arbitration clock when they've never played a game in AAA and there isn't a pressing need for them in Milwaukee?

 

This notion that you have to trade your best player while still in his early arbitration years is the lingering effect of fan malaise precipitated by 25 years of dysfunctional loser management. Those days are gone.

[BillScottCanRake]

Actually Hardy will make more money by switching to 3B. Reason number 1 he moves from an over crowded elite SS area defensively into a very small list of great defensive 3B. Hardy would probably be in the top 3 defensive 3B in the NL if he moves over to 3B. Wright, Hardy, Zimmerman would be your top 3 defensive 3B in the NL. When looking at the NL SS position Hardy will be near the middle of the pack defensively in the NL for SS. Top 3 NL SS are Tulowitzki, Reyes, Rollins with Ramirez at a close 4th best behind those 3 and don't forget about Yunel Escobar either he is becoming a top SS in the NL also.

 

Hardy will gain money because he will be a contender year after year at 3B compared to his chances of winning that at SS. Awards like the Gold Glove award go a long ways in determining a players worth to a team. This is why Hardy could get more money as a 3B than as a SS.

 

I disagree.

 

I don't think he'll ever be an elite fielder, whether he plays short or third or second. Of those positions, short is considered the more important defensively, so one could argue that being average defensively at short is more valuable than being slightly above average at second or third. I'm sure being a top-three (but not elite) defensive player does not carry near the same weight that being a top-three offensive player carries when it comes time to negotiate a contract, as only the truly elite defensive players get paid significantly for their glove.

 

That said, it is his glove that will allow Hardy to maximize his earnings over the next several years (assuming he continues to hit as he has). So long as he's good enough to remain a shortstop, he's going to be a top-3 to top-5 offensive shortstop, and those guys get paid a lot more money than a top-10 second or third basement. So, the only way his glove makes him money is if he plays short, and even then his glove is only allowing him play a position that maximize the amount of money his bat will make him.

 

If a team wants to sign Hardy long-term and play him someplace other than short, I think they'll have to pay him like a top-hitting shortstop instead of an average hitting second or third baseman.

[joepepsi]

They are not going to trade Hardy this winter and they aren't going to move him to another position. I am positive they will offer him a 3-5 deal in the winter. If he accepts it, Escobar will be traded before the end of 2009. If he rejects any long term contract, then they'll entertain offers for Hardy after 2009.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I was and still am in the camp that Prince should be traded next year and we should either go with Nelson or Gamel next year at 1B. We are going to be desperate for pitching next year and Prince is exactly the type of player that could bring in pitching, and at the same time we can improve our IF defense tremedously by trading Prince.

 

Brad Nelson is going to be on our 25 man roster in 2009 so why not give him a chance at 1B?

[Tbadder]

Why would anyone want Fielder? Who goes out and trades away the most valuable commodity in baseball for someone who can't see his toes much less touch them?

 

I do agree that they'll simply stand pat and then trade away players as they get too expensive or too old. Hence Salome makes to the bigs before Escobar or Gamel. Keeping players in the minors as long as you can, can maximize their value.

 

If Escobar and Gamel spend the entire year in AAA next year good things will happen.

[mletto157]

I guess I don't really understand the notion of JJ losing money by playing 3B for the Crew. He's been a SS his whole career, you think by playing a year or two of 3B he'll all of a sudden forget how to play SS so much that a team looking for a SS when the Brewers are ready to move him won't be at all interested? I will have to disagree with you.