SOS for Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals

[rluzinski]

Time to go to dinner with the wife but I want to post this quick. If it results in bad grammer and spelling, so be it!

I just wanted to show the strength of schedule differences between a few teams and show that even a big difference in SOS doesn't amount to as big difference in the standings as some seem to think, at least over 22 games.

When I say SOS, I'm also referring to how many home and away games each team has left. First, using a team's current win percentage as an estimator of their true collective talent right now:

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/SOS_WP_905.gif

The .492 under the Brewers is the collective strength of the Brewers opponents, adjusted for home field advantage. If the Brewers were a .500 team, you'd expect them to lose 49.2% of their remaining games. You can see that the Cub's remaining SOS is much harder than eitther the Brewers or Cardinals. Over 22 games, the Brewers are expected to get 1.3 extra wins from that SOS advantage.

The .577 under the Brewers is the win percentage I'd expect from the Brewers, based on their current win percentage. So, even though the Cubs are the better team according to win percentage, their SOS wipes out that advantage. We expect the the Brewers to win about .6 games more than the Cubs over the last 22 games.

But even after 140 games, win percentage can still be a less than perfect gauge of a team's true talent. Four good or bad bounces can result in a 8 game swing afterall. Baseball Prospectus tries to estimate a team's true talent with something called WP3, which you can find on their playoff odds reports. I'm using the PECOTA version. It's far from perfect (it doesn't adjust for personel channges very well at all, among other problems) but it's better than simply win percentage, IMO. Let's take a look:

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/SOS_WP3_905.gif

The SOS values are different but the relative differences between the teams are pretty similar. The Brewers and Cardinals have about a game and a half win advantage over the Cubs over the last 22 games from their relatively easier SOS. That's pretty huge actually but it's going to take a lot more than that for either team to catch the Cubs.

[Oldcity]

Time to go to dinner with the wife but I want to post this quick. If it results in bad grammer and spelling, so be it!

 

That's too perfect. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Great stuff Russ. Interesting as always.

[LouisEly]

I thought with the state that those three teams have been in the last week that you were referring to Save Our Ship.

[Fatter than Joey]

I thought with the state that those three teams have been in the last week that you were referring to Save Our Ship.

 

Me too, I thought Russ was signing off on full-scale panic time.

[rluzinski]

Opps. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[razzzorsharp]

Very nice but I would have liked to see the Astros as well as I consider them in the same boat as the Cards, both longshots that will need a Rockies type streak (many sweeps) to overtake the wildcard lead from the Phillies/Brewers.

[rluzinski]

The Astros are behind the Cardinals and are not a good team. They've been outscored over the first 140+ games. If someone is going on an improbable run, it would be the Cardinals before the Astros.

 

I'll add the Phillies soon.