Bullpen, Melvin's biggest failure.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

Gagne 10M, Riske 4M, Mota 3.2M, Torres 3.2M, Shouse 2M = 22.4M

Florida Marlins = 21.8M

 

And their bullpen is on the same level as ours. I understand the successes of Torres and Shouse, but neither would be considered dominant. And as we go down the stretch run, especially on the road against Phi & Chi, we are going to need a bullpen that we don't have.

 

IMO, Melvin puts way too much value on experienced bullpen arms and gives up on younger pitchers too early, and unfortunately too often. Adams, Balfour, Eveland, Inman, Garrison, and my guess is they will give up on Dillard for the rest of this year. I'm not implying all these examples should be the makeup of our bullpen. However, to be competitive in the upcoming years, Melvin will have to change philosophically.

[istanbultaye]

RK	TEAM	GP	W	L	ERA	Sv	CG	SHO	IP	H	ER	R	BB	SO	BAA
11	Milwaukee	130	24	20	3.86	43	0	0	389.1	365	167	189	180	316	.248

19

Milwaukee

159

23

32

4.15

49

0

0

511.1

493

236

276

200

477

.252

That's 2008, then 2007 Brewers. I'd agree that 22 million is more than the Brewers should spend on a yearly basis for the bullpen, It also would be nice to get a top 8 or better ranking out of that much cash. However, though somewhat dissappointing in light of the price tag, the Brewer's bullpen has been improved to date over last year. Although, one could argue that's because the starters have pitched more innings this year, saving the BP some wear and tear.

[sveumrules]

donmoney, who are some of the general managers you feel melvin could emulate next year in putting together his bullpen? what strategy do you think he should employ as opposed to his current methodology?

 

gange was boom or bust all the way. and i'll still take him plus the picks over cordero at 4/46.

 

mota was acquired for estrada. so we essentially traded one unwanted, overpaid player for another. at this point mota has an era lower than league average and an era+ of 106. so he has been slightly above average this year.

 

as for riske he was given a fair contract for the bloated middle reliever market and has underperformed this season. given his past track record in the al i hardly feel the contract was a stretch and would imagine he should bounce back nicely next year.

 

balfour was traded for mcclung. how many effective starts do you think grant balfour could have provided this year?

 

garrison and inman have yet to throw a single mlb inning and could not have helped us during the second half of 07.

 

adams was mainly let go for personal/attitude reasons if i recall correctly. then you look at his home road splits (small sample but hey we're talking about relievers so it's all one big small sample) and that 4.15 road era isn't quite as impressive as the 1.59 home mark.

 

i guess the way i see it is bullpen performance is the biggest turdshoot in the whole game. even bigger than the postseason in fact. there are a small percentage of relievers who year in and year out put up great numbers, but most of them aren't going anywhere because they're already locked up for big bucks or require a premium return in trade. i feel melvin's approach has primarily been a scrapheap approach throughout his time in milwaukee. which was acceptable and yielded some impressive returns early in his tenure. as the team has ascended to contention he tried to supplant that with some veteran arms. some of them overachieved and some of them undereachieved. you'll find this trend throughout major league bullpens. with lower expectaions and salaries this is more palatable. if melvin had instead trusted gagne, mota and riske's roles to unproven mlbers the results would have most likely been worse and people's outrage would be even greater.

[dadofandrew]

Unless it's your money, I think that's a nice improvement, 16 runs less should equal 1.6 wins, if all things work out the "average" way.

 

0.29 x 162 / 3 = 15.66 fewer runs

 

That's figured with relievers averaging 3 innings per game, by the way.

[jeffy]

What is the point of comparing one thin slice of the Brewers to another team that probably just got lucky?

 

Florida Marlins 71-69 and 9 games back in the wild card standings, in 3rd place and 8 games behind in their division.

 

Milwaukee Brewers 80-60 and leading the wild card standings, in 2nd place and 5 games behind in their division.

[GAME05]

if Milwaukee was a team that traded anyone with developed talent and was in a constant state of rebuilding, i'm sure we could do the same thing.

 

to say 'they stink' is one thing, but what would you have done differently?

 

plus it's really unfair to pick out the underperformers out of Melvin's trades and FA pickups and say he did a bad job.

[MillerParkSouth]

we're not getting any picks for Gagne. #1 there is no way we offer him arby and #2 there is probably no way any team signs him next year.

[LouisEly]

He was referring to letting Cordero go, which in turn netted Gagne and the picks.

 

There is some truth to giving up on the kids too early, but they haven't had much relief talent come up through the system. Adams was let go because of attitude, and he got very lucky because of a high WHIP; pitching in Petco is helping his ERA also, but he is nothing special. Eveland is nothing special, and while they did give up on Balfour too early they got McClung for him, who really helped stabilize the rotation in the middle of the season.

 

The fact is that they have focused too much on drafting and developing starting pitching in the minors and not enough on developing relievers. Actually, they have focused almost all of their high picks on position players, but that's a different story. Relievers have been an afterthought in the minors, a place where guys are moved after they fail at starting and then given up on. Now with the price of closers skyrocketing, hopefully they see the need to develop relievers.

[istanbultaye]

I don't think Gagne has been near terrible enough this year to warrant no team signing him next year. I can pretty much guarantee he's not getting 10 mil again though.

 

@Svuem- Didn't Mike Adams leave the Brewers after the '05 season? If you were trying to use people from last year's team perhaps you were thinking of Matt Wise?

[logan82]

LouisEly wrote:

The fact is that they have focused too much on drafting and developing starting pitching in the minors and not enough on developing relievers. Actually, they have focused almost all of their high picks on position players, but that's a different story. Relievers have been an afterthought in the minors, a place where guys are moved after they fail at starting and then given up on. Now with the price of closers skyrocketing, hopefully they see the need to develop relievers.

I like the strategy of trying to draft and develop starters then shift them to the pen when starting doesn't work out. It isn't like the Brewers have been great at developing starting pitching either. As an organization, the Brewers are just bad developing pitchers in general.

 

I think our pen last year was better than this year's pen, but our starters have been going deeper into games so only our top guys are getting many innings. The fact that the stats from last year are similar to the stats from this year tells me that our top guys in the pen this year are still pretty weak. We don't have many innings by back end of the pen guys to drag us down like we did last year.

[jeffy]

The fact is that they have focused too much on drafting and developing starting pitching in the minors and not enough on developing relievers. Relievers have been an afterthought in the minors, a place where guys are moved after they fail at starting and then given up on.

 

I would have assumed that this is standard practice. Do other teams go about this differently and draft guys specifically to develop them as relievers?

 

Actually, they have focused almost all of their high picks on position players, but that's a different story.

It seems like they have focused many of their picks on DHs, which is odd for a team in the NL. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

 

[logan82]

jeffyscott wrote:

It seems like they have focused many of their picks on DHs, which is odd for a team in the NL. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

They have stated that their drafting policy is to draft speed and power(power hitters, power arms). Things that can't be taught. I think it is pretty apparent by looking at players like, well, pretty much our whole team. High SLG, bad OBP, lots of team speed, not polished all around players. Lots of toolsy guys.

[Playing Catch]

i guess the way i see it is bullpen performance is the biggest turdshoot in the whole game.

IMO, sveumrules was correct in his or her assessment.

 

1- I don't think the money spent should be part of the criteria for determining the success, or lack thereof for a playoff team's bullpen.

2- I would rather rely on pitchers that have, at some point in their MLB careers, had success than on relatively untested pitchers.

 

Two points on Gagne... First, I think if he were just "average" statistically this season, Doug Melvin's bullpen decisions from the off-season look much, much better. Gagne's high-profile lousiness reflects poorly on the entire bullpen... Second, simply looking at what Gagne throws (keeping in mind I am definitely not a baseball scout), it seems to me that the numbers don't make sense -- Not that Gagne has been unlucky, but that he seems to have good "stuff". He throws pretty hard, and his changeup, while not the change he had in his heyday, still has the potential to make hitters look silly (case-in-point, K-ing Kouzmanoff on three consecutive changeups last night)... I guess my point is, from my couch, I can see why Melvin thought he could catch lightning in a bottle with Gagne, and I still think that it was a good decision at the time.

[Postseason2006]

Don't forget, Melvin also had planned Turnbow as his closer coming into the season also. That also adds more fuel to the trainwreck that was our BP. Riske, Gags, Riske, Turnbow, and Mota....talk about a disaster.

[PeaveyFury]

Riske, Gags, Riske, Turnbow, and Mota....talk about a disaster.

 

Turnbow and Gagne have been a disaster. Riske has been a disappointment, though still statistically fine. And Mota has probably surpassed expectations by a significant margin so far.

[UndraftedFA]

I don't have any problem with the way Melvin put the pen together this year either. He had the money to try and take some shots. Gagne looked great in Texas last season, and was going to be another year removed from surgery. I guess I don't always judge someone by the end result. No one is perfect, and some choices are going to fail. I think given the situation, Melvin has done a pretty good job this year with his choices (gambles). I can see the thought process in the Gagne signing, but it just didn't pan out. I am pretty sure every GM has a move or two that doesn't work out each year. Melvin had money to spend and opportunities to go for some 1 year deals. I don't think Gagne signs a 1 year deal unless it is a bloated contract. The trade for Torres worked out great. Mota has been great at times. I think Torres is a bigger plus than Gagne is a minus. Mota a slight plus. Riske even mabe slight minus. I am happy with the trade that brought McClung. Overall, I put the pen at a net gain for Melvin I have a feeling this discussion takes place on at least 20 team's message boards each year, if not all 30.

[jeffy]

I have no problem with signing Gagne, they took a chance and it did not work out. Yost continuing to pretend that it did work out is probably his biggest failure.

[fallingleaves]

If the Bullpen is Melvin's biggest failure, he has done a pretty good job. We all knew Gagne was a risk, Torres and Shouse have been excellent, Mota is having his best year at 2004, and Riske has been disappointing. Free Agency is never a good way to put a bullpen together, and barring the surcumstances, I think Melvin did pretty well.

[JJHardy7]

If the Bullpen is Melvin's biggest failure, he has done a pretty good job. We all knew Gagne was a risk, Torres and Shouse have been excellent, Mota is having his best year at 2004, and Riske has been disappointing. Free Agency is never a good way to put a bullpen together, and barring the surcumstances, I think Melvin did pretty well.

 

I agree with most of what you're saying, but Shouse was already here. The Brewers knew what they were getting. The Brewers got Torres and Mota for more or less a bag of baseballs so the only risk was the salary and in comparison to Gagne's one year deal it was very small. Riske had a real good year last year, but he was hurt this year. I actually think Riske will pan out since I have a feeling he hasn't been 100% for awhile and the off-season will give him time to get it back. I just don't think saying Gagne 'was a risk' is quite accurate. He's one of the highest paid players on the team (actually maybe the in the top 3 or so) this year and he's much more than a risk. Highest paid players shouldn't be the worst players on the team -- I know it's strange logic, but not one that Melvin and Co. looked into enough in the off-season.

 

We also say 'it's not our money', but also say 'extend this guy or this guy'. Well money today is worth money tomorrow and that $10 million could've helped extend a Hart, Hardy, Fielder, Yo, etc. Now it might as well have been lit on fire.

[logan82]

I don't think Torres is very good either. His K and BB rates bother me.

[GB12]

That's 2008, then 2007 Brewers. I'd agree that 22 million is more than the Brewers should spend on a yearly basis for the bullpen, It also would be nice to get a top 8 or better ranking out of that much cash.

 

 

Well Gagne is taking up nearly half of it, and say what you want about how he's pitched but we pretty much had to sign him.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

My original point was not so much what options Melvin had, or what his thought processes were, because personally, I don't care. The bottom line, however, is that here we are in a pennant race and we have a bullpen that is below average and one I have very little confidence in. If the game is on the line (1 or 2 run lead, 7th inning on) can we trust Gagne, Riske, Mota, Shouse (other than situationally), or Torres. I don't think so. And I don't think Nedley does either.

[logan82]

My original point was not so much what options Melvin had, or what his thought processes were, because personally, I don't care. The bottom line, however, is that here we are in a pennant race and we have a bullpen that is below average and one I have very little confidence in.

We can't just ignore that there were few options available. That's like saying we have to sign CC and Sheets and ignore the fact that we have limited money.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

sveumrules[/b]]donmoney, who are some of the general managers you feel melvin could emulate next year in putting together his bullpen? what strategy do you think he should employ as opposed to his current methodology?

I'd have to research that first question, but off the top of my head Billy Beane (A's), or Bill Smith of the Twins.

Secondly, to take Gagne over anybody is crazy. But I wouldn't of signed Cordero either.

Mota was a good deal, but he's not good enough to be an eigth inning guy or someone to really count on in a big game

I'd take Balfour over McClung any day of the week. Balfour's whip is sick, under 1. 22 hits in 47 innings.

The linebrink trade was bad last year, worse this year, and when Inman and Garrison reach the majors it will be a horrible trade.

Adams wasn't given a fair shake. And his attitude wasn't over the top bad.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

My last point on the bullpen. The Brewers WHIP is 1.41, 18th in the majors. Only 4 teams have more blown saves than the Brewers (24); Seattle 25, Nats 26, Texas 26, and STL 30. That's not good.