should we really worry about Houston

[Ennder]

I really don't care about the so call odds ,they mean nothing almost every year and just watch the way they are playing and the way we are Playing

 

You do realize that when this thread was made we were coming off our winningest month in team history right? The Astros are still in no better shape than at least 2 other wild card hopefuls and if we end up losing the wild card it won't be because the Astros played well, it will be because we sucked.

 

Assuming we scuffle the rest of the way and go .500 we are left with a record of 91-71. The Astros have to go 17-5 in their last 22 games to match that.

[brwrsfan]

They just fell to 7 back, so that's gotta hurt the odds just a bit.

 

I just don't see it with Houston, but you never now. Pretty good for a team that I've written off as dead TWICE already this season.

[rluzinski]

"I really don't care about the so call odds ,they mean nothing almost every year and just watch the way they are playing and the way we are Playing "

 

I don't really care about the so called "the way they are playing" nonesense. How many times has the Brewers proven that theory complete bollocks this season alone? Momentum. Yipee.

[brewmann04]

well gentleman the Astros are playing the kind of winning baseball to overtake the brewers, i wonder what the great odds makers

are now saying

[jeffy]

I think the point is they do not need to specifically worry about Houston, they do have to worry about any one of Houston, StL, or Philly finishing the season hot, while slumping themselves. If the Brewers go something like 5-12 the rest of the way someone will likely pass them, whether it is Houston or some other team does not really matter, does it?

[brewmann04]

I pulling for houston to be the team when the brewers collaspe because of COOP

[jake53098]

I say no we don't have to be worried. They are 4 games back and are without Carlos Lee, that will come back and bite them in the ass. I'm not worried, just as long as the Brewers take care of business in the Phillies series, we'll do just fine.

[BADGERJOBOB]

I don't think we have to worry about Houston because it looks like Philly and St. Louis will pass us up very shortly so another team passing us up doesn't matter.

 

Can't win when our 3-4-5 hitters are stinking it up. We obviously can't sit Braun or Prince but why is Corey still in the lineup on a regular basis. The one thing that gets me so angry with Yost is that he is so stubborn when it comes to leaving players in the lineup when they are struggling badly. Your two big guns are Braun and Prince so you can't sit them down for any extended length of time but the rest of the players in the lineup can all be replaced over a short period of time. Hart has been in a free fall for the last month. You would think at the very least Hart would have been given at least a few days off here and there with a player (Kapler) who is always hitting the ball hard when he plays. Yost did the same with Cameron and Weeks for much of the year. I can't help but think Yost's stubborness to bench unproductive players here and there has cost us more wins than saved more losses.

[JohnBriggs12]

Philly and Houston have really easy schedules. If the Brewers don't at least split in Philly, it's all over. One if not both will fly by the Brewers.

[brewmann04]

John that what i have said from the start of this post the Astros are hot and they are beating up on bad teams unlike the crew.

[rluzinski]

If the Brewers only take 1 of 3 from Philly, they'll still probably be alone in 1st place in the wildcard race. While I agree that the SOS differences between the Brewers and their contenders make that situation an undesirable one for he Crew, to say it would be "all over" is melodramatic, to say the least. They'd probably still be the favorites in the wildcard race!

[jeffy]

what about the 4th game in Philly?

[SeriesFinale]

They take one of four they're still in first.

Assuming they don't lose a game today.

[rluzinski]

what about the 4th game in Philly?

 

I meant one of 4, obviously. 1 of 3 would result in 100% chance of the Brewers still having the top spot in the wildcard race all to themselves. I have a feeling that after the Asros are done with their 3 game series in Florida, they won't even be in the playoff picture.

[jeffy]

1 of 3 would result in 100% chance of the Brewers still having the top spot in the wildcard race all to themselves.

 

Except there are games today also.

[dlk9s]

well gentleman the Astros are playing the kind of winning baseball to overtake the brewers, i wonder what the great odds makers

are now saying

I don't think you understand the point that people (including me) have made in this thread. Nobody's "worried" about the Astros. We're "worried" about the Brewers. If the Astros pass us, it's because we played incredibly horribly in September. If we play that horribly, which we are so far, at least one of the teams behind us will pass us. The fact that it might specifically be the Astros is not the concern. They were way behind us not long ago and it has taken a tremendous cold streak by the Brewers for them to get to four games back. If the Brewers had just played decently for the last week and a half, the Astros wouldn't have had a chance.

 

As I said earlier in the thread, if the Astros pass us, we have more to worry about than just the Astros. The Astros potentially catching us is because of the Brewers, not the Astros.

[StatPipes]

Well of course everyone is worried about the Brewers play, and since they are still in first then it's win and your in...But having to deal with 3 teams trying to catch you instead of 2 should be worrisome, especially since the Astros remaining schedule is fairly soft. They are also 34-16 since the All-Star break.

 

BTW, anyone still questioning the Wolf and Hawkins pick-ups? They are 8-1 in Wolf's starts, and Hawkins has a 0.00 ERA over 13 innings with 19 strikeouts. Ed Wade for GM of the Year!

[rluzinski]

1 of 3 would result in 100% chance of the Brewers still having the top spot in the wildcard race all to themselves.

 

Except there are games today also.

 

aAnd? What scwnario am I missing?

[jeffy]

Well I figured you would give them a better than 50% probability, but not 100%. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[rluzinski]

Brewers lose today and lose 2 of the first 3 against Philli. Cardinals and astros win the next 4. Brewers still have a half game lead, no?

[jeffy]

They had a 3 game lead on Philly this morning, if they had lost today and Phillies win, then were they to lose 3 of 4 in Philly they would have been tied.

You should not have deleted your win prediction for today, then again maybe you'd have jinxed them had you left it up http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif.

[lcbj68c]

E # at 13 for houston. 6 Brewers wins in 18 games and 6 Houston losses in 19 games just about does it. I'm still not worried about Houston.

[fondybrewfan]

Houston has played very well, they seem to be doing it with smoke and mirrors but they are getting the job done. Their pitching was god awful but somehow those same pitchers are all of a sudden good. I just hope Wade thinks these same pitchers will duplicate their 2nd halves next year, because they will most likely not be able to duplicate this.

[rluzinski]

They had a 3 game lead on Philly this morning, if they had lost today and Phillies win, then were they to lose 3 of 4 in Philly they would have been tied.

 

I said: "I meant one of 4, obviously. 1 of 3 would result in 100% chance of the Brewers still having the top spot in the wildcard race all to themselves."

"Houston has played very well, they seem to be doing it with smoke and mirrors but they are getting the job done. Their pitching was god awful but somehow those same pitchers are all of a sudden good. I just hope Wade thinks these same pitchers will duplicate their 2nd halves next year, because they will most likely not be able to duplicate this."

If they aren't good pitchers, they most likely won't keep it up this year. That's the thing people are missing when they say, "But they are playing really well right now!" If the Astros have players overperforming, they are more likely to revert back to career norms than continue to be "hot". Now many times does a team have to flip back and forth between hot and cold in one season before people realize this?

[jeffy]

I said: ...1 of 3...

 

Ah, that's true...but I kept thinking in terms of 1 of 4 anyway. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/embarassed.gif

 

Also I missed the probably where that you had said initially they'll still probably be alone in 1st place. That was a key word to overlook.