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should we really worry about Houston

brewmann04

By brewmann04,
in Milwaukee Brewers Talk

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pitchleague ACL Brewers

pitchleague

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I'm sure Russ will chime in here soon, but I will preemptively agree with him. Yes, they have a chance. But, no, I'm not worried about them They still have to jump the Cards and the Mets/Phillies. Not to mention that 6 or 7 games is a pretty large deficit with 23 games to play.

 

Is it possible that they make a huge run like the Rockies last year? Sure, its "possible." Likely? No. It would have to take phenominal play from them while the Crew has a tremendous belly flop against some pretty weak teams (minus the Phillies and Cubs, of course).

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lcbj68c ACL Brewers

lcbj68c

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I echo that .03%. I'm not worried about the Astros. I dont think the starting pitching can win them the 20 more ballgames it's likely going to take. This thing is a 3-horse race and win every loss the Cards and Phillies make, the easier Brewers losses like today are to swallow. In my opinion, It's down to elimination numbers now rather than games back and that number is currently 17. Even if the Brewers only 12 more games going 12-11 from here on out, that affords only 5 losses for the Astros. I just dont see it.
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brwrsfan First Round Pick

brwrsfan

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They are playing extremely well right now, and if they beat the Cubs, that will put them at 6.5 games back of us if my math is correct. This would be their 8th win in a row (3 each against Cards and Cubs) so I wouldn't put it past them but you would think they would cool off at some point. We're 7 games up on them in the loss column, with only 23 games to play (they'll have 22 after tonight). Assuming we don't COMPLETELY implode...it would take a Rockies like run to finish.

 

Assuming we play .500, we'll say 11-12 to finish they year at 91-71, the Astros would have to finish the season going 17-5, coupled with the 8 in a row they would have already won, and that's a run of 25-5 to end the year...just to tie. Not impossible, but still pretty tough. Not to mention the Cards/Phillies are still in between us too.

 

The Brewers winning 15 or 16 of the last 23 games would make it virtually impossible. Or a few Astros losses, any type of losing streak at all is probably the end of it. Here is their remaining schedule:

 

3 @ Colorado

4 vs Pitt

3 vs Cubs

3 @ Florida

3 @ Pitt

3 vs Cininnati

3 vs Atlanta

 

If they get through the Cubs series within 2-3 games of us I'll be getting very concerned but until that point I'm not overly worried about them. I personally think they lose at least 2 in Colorado to hopefully give us a cushion over them once and for all.

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lcbj68c ACL Brewers

lcbj68c

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If they get through the Cubs series within 2-3 games of us I'll be getting very concerned but until that point I'm not overly worried about them. I personally think they lose at least 2 in Colorado to hopefully give us a cushion over them once and for all.

There are too many record references in there too quote it all, but basically the elimination number is 17. Games back doesn't mean diddly poo at this point. 11 Brewers wins mean the Astros can afford only 5 losses just to tie, not to mention hoping STL/PHIL dont win 15 in the process. Fuhgetaboutit.

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dlk9s Carolina Mudcats

dlk9s

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I've said this before in reference to other teams (ex: when Atlanta was about 10 back, a couple people were still nervous about them), but I'll say it again. If we get caught by Houston, we very likely have much more to worry about than the simple fact that Houston passed us. Them passing us would likely mean a big collapse by the Brewers, and chances are, some other team will have caught us by then, anyway.
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moofnelson Draft Eligible

moofnelson

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I've said this before in reference to other teams (ex: when Atlanta was about 10 back, a couple people were still nervous about them), but I'll say it again. If we get caught by Houston, we very likely have much more to worry about than the simple fact that Houston passed us. Them passing us would likely mean a big collapse by the Brewers, and chances are, some other team will have caught us by then, anyway.
My thoughts exactly. If the Astros still had a couple of series against us then I would definitely be a little worried. But they don't, and I'm not. The Brewers have to play pretty crappy this month to not make the playoffs. If they play that bad, then they don't deserve a postseason appearance. And if that happens, I could care less who passes them.
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mothershipconnection First Round Pick

mothershipconnection

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If we get caught by Houston, we very likely have much more to worry about than the simple fact that Houston passed us.

 

Yep, if we have to worry about Houston it means we fell apart and sucked. Let's say we win tomorrow and go 7 games up. We both have 22 games left and if we go 11-11, they need to go 18-4.

 

What we really need to worry about is that 4-game series at Philadelphia. That and 6 tough games against the Cubs are the biggest obstacles standing between us and the playoffs.

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jeffy Draft Eligible

jeffy

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I am much more worried about Philly and our 4 game series with them next week. Of course a split in that series would take our magic number down by 4.

Yes, they need to pound lumps on SD and Cincinatti to give us a bigger cushion going into that series. Then they need to do they same with Cincinatti and Pittsburgh after that. If they go something like 9-4 in those 13 games against bad teams, then even going 3-7 against the Cubs and Phillies likely gets them the wild card as the Phillies would need to go 16-6 to tie.

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biedergb College Ball

biedergb

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The only team to worry about is our Brewers. If we win games, we will be able to take care of the wild card.

 

Houston plays the Cubs three more times, so either team will weaken with that matchup.

The Phils and the Mets play each other this weekend -- Let's go METS!

 

Also, Houston has won 8 in a row to get to within 6.5 back. As this Brewers team (and all baseball teams except the '07 Rockies) have shown is that a hot streak is usually followed by a cold spell. So figure the 'Stros will lose a few games. And even losing something like six games this month, would mean we have to go 10-13 to force a tie breaker with them. And as stated that leaves the door open for the Phils or Cards to overtake us in the WC anyway. A .500 month of Sept (ie 13 wins) should put us in a good place, and that's all the Brewers and us as fans need to worry about. We have 13 games against bottom dwellers, and that means we need to win a few against the Cubs/Phils.

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