The Panic/Relax Thread

[rluzinski]

Just because I wouldn't want to switch places with a team doesn't mean that the team has no chance of winning. Even considering the schedule, the Brewers are the clear favorites but that doesn't mean they couldn't blow it. That's just how it works. I tried to show how the schedule differences don't amount to wild swings in expected wins in in a recent thread but no one commented.

 

I just wish I could steal 2 wins from that great August and exchange them with a couple of these September losses. The Brewers would be in the exact same position but everyone would be upbeat around here.

 

My advice? Stop trying to extrapolate the play of the last week over the restof the season. Unless a bad streak is a reflection of loss of talent through injuries, that's not how it works. Parra might be the only guy a person could be legitimately concered about, as he might be wearing down, down the stretch. Just in time for Yo?

 

Come on, people, things are just starting to get interesting!

[pretendastronaut]

My advice? Stop trying to extrapolate the play of the last week over the restof the season. Unless a bad streak is a reflection of loss of talent through injuries, that's not how it works. Parra might be the only guy a person could be legitimately concered about, as he might be wearing down, down the stretch. Just in time for Yo?

 

Come on, people, things are just starting to get interesting!

 

My thoughts exactly. It's a bad stretch, but seriously, there's no reason to believe we will play like this for 3 more weeks. Everyone seems to think we're going to go get swept by the Phillies and the Cubs, come on, have some faith in the team you've invested a whole summer in. Maybe we do get swept, but I doubt it. You go through streaks like this, we've done it before this season and half of the board was ready to throw in the towel and sell off the team. The Cubs are streaking horribly too, do you honestly think they should be panicking right now? A lot of the fanbase is, but its even less justified than everyone here panicking.

[lukevan]

Yes, a bit too much doom and gloom for my taste. We weren't going to keep winning at a .700 clip (or whatever it was) like we did in August. It sucks to lose opportunities to create distance between us and our wild card opponents but just because Torres blew it last night doesn't mean we can't rattle off 6 of the next 7. Braun and Fielder have to hit like they know they can in these last three weeks.

[Dmiles23]

Anyone else think it may be a good time for the Brewers to head out on the road again? Last season they were horrible on the road, and dominant at home. Since the All-Star break this year, according to my count, the team is 18-6 on the road and 12-13 at home. You can't necessarily point at one thing and be certain that is the reason for this, but maybe the pressure of being at home is truly getting to the team. I guess I'm just grasping at straws, and hoping this is true, but it may have some merit. The Brewers scored 36 runs on their last road trip, 6 games. They have scored 20 so far in the 8 games at home since. I'm hoping for a quick turn around in Philly, and adding some distance with 12 to go!!

[BrewCrewRising]

...I just wish I could steal 2 wins from that great August and exchange them with a couple of these September losses. The Brewers would be in the exact same position but everyone would be upbeat around here. ...

That is a great point.

 

Although I'd rather we take two wins from May and put them here in September. Because then we could start the "We're 55-32 since May!" mantra.

[jason21nl]

There is nothing in the Brewers history(at least not since I was like 4) that makes me believe that they will hold on. Everything says choke job to me, especially with the guy running the show. I'm in full blown panic mode.

[Fatter than Joey]

Since the All-Star break this year, according to my count, the team is 18-6 on the road and 12-13 at home.

 

Those last three home games against the Cubs are going to be weird, especially if more Brewer fans start selling their seats.

[jeffy]

Everyone seems to think we're going to go get swept by the Phillies and the Cubs,

No, but I won't be surprise to see the Brewers at between +1 and -1 in the wild card race, after Philly. Before this home stand I figured even if they were mediocre the rest of the way, the Brewers make the playoffs. Unfortunately, they have not been even mediocre.

The Cubs are streaking horribly too, do you honestly think they should be panicking right now?

Yes, I do. Not about making the playoffs, but about having another quick exit after limping to the finish line.

[Fike85]

I decided today that I am going to root for the Cubs to have the division sealed up by the last series of the season. This way they would have no incentive to pitch Harden or Zambrano and would probably be inclined to rest Soriano, Lee, Ramirez and Co.

 

But rooting for the Cubs to win the division you play in. If that is not this sign of panic then I do not know what is.

[rluzinski]

I was reading all about the Brewers' "collapse" in the JS during lunch. I looked at the standings and noticed "4-6" under the "last 10" column for the Brewers. They are 5-6 over the last 11! Pretty darn mild of a collapse if you ask me!

 

It would have been great to have wrapped up a poast season appearance by mid Sept. but it's not going to happen. Just take a step back and look at the big picture.

[bucks2281]

Their playoff odds did drop 7% last night -- obviously, if things go right tonight, that means nothing, but it's enough to make me quite nervous. Every win/loss causes a great fluctuation in that number. I guess we just reallyt do have to look at the picture -- but a win or two would make that easier.

[logan82]

I decided today that I am going to root for the Cubs to have the division sealed up by the last series of the season. This way they would have no incentive to pitch Harden or Zambrano and would probably be inclined to rest Soriano, Lee, Ramirez and Co.

As it stands right now, we would have to get swept by the Cubs and the Phillies would have to sweep in the last week of the season for them to tie us.

[holybannana]

Not playing their best ball but it's hardly a collapse. They'll put it together like they have all year and rip something off this year. Yeah, I'm getting a little nervous but I have faith they're just playing bad right now for a little bit and will get it together.

 

In some ways I feel like it is happening as planned and that's stumbling in the front end of this month and then getting hot again soon and going into the playoffs and then world domination.

[jeffh]

I an not panicked anymore, I come to the believe that the Brewers will choke again and not make the playoffs.

[rluzinski]

I'm not saying the ever tightening playoff race isn't making me nervous. I just don't assume that bad play now means bad play later. What baseball fans want to do is assume that good or bad playing teams have a greater chance of continuing that kind of play for the immediate future. For the average team, the numbers just don't support that theory. If you want to attribute that to the Brewers specifically, I can't disprove it statistically. I'm just not on board with it.

 

The Brewers and every other team can go from great to terrible to great so fast that it's pretty obvious to me that it's largely just the randomness of the dice rolls. Right now, those dice rolls have been pretty brutal to the Brewers. I'm not sure if that's going to comfort anyone here but it gets me through these cold, cold nights. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[pebadger]

I have gone from pure relaxation to abject apathy. Well, not quite apathy, but simply for psychological self-preservation I have gone into a state of emotional detachment.

[Ranier]

I have gone from pure relaxation to abject apathy. Well, not quite apathy, but simply for psychological self-preservation I have gone into a state of emotional detachment.

 

Same here....I am watching other things and turning back to the game (expecting the worst every time...while still hoping). I am just so pessimistic, and it seems to help me deal with what is happening. Less disappointment.

[Ranier]

I have gone from pure relaxation to abject apathy. Well, not quite apathy, but simply for psychological self-preservation I have gone into a state of emotional detachment.

 

Same here....I am watching other things and turning back to the game (expecting the worst every time...while still hoping). I am just so pessimistic, and it seems to help me deal with what is happening. Less disappointment.

 

Holy crap, then Durham hits a three-run shot!!!!!

[RU Rah Rah]

If CC loses today, I think I might edge toward the panic camp.

[brewmann04]

I guess noone has seen this team just start to fall apart ,their Shortcommings from the season have hit big time in Sept.

[BrewerTerp]

Ok after nearly jumping out of my apartment window last night and then almost sleeping through all of my classes today, I got to thinking.

 

We still have CC. We still have Ben.

 

CC has been a world beater and there's no seeing why that will stop today. Ben hasn't allowed a run in 20 IP.

 

With 2/5 of our rotation dominant, we will win at least 40% of our games the rest of the way. Definitely more. Our bats WON'T stay this cold, and in fact they will likely heat up. And when they heat up, we won't be playing the Reds or Padres, but the much more important Phillies and Cubs.

 

I know there isn't that much logic in this post, but now is not the time for logic. Just look at Ned.

[MJLiverock]

Playing 5-6 ball isn't a total collapse but it is scary when the team can't win a game verus a contender like the Mets, and can't win a series at home versus the likes of the Padres and Reds. These games don't bode well for the Phillies series but hopefully playing in that bandbox they call a stadium in Philly will spark the offense and not just be the final nail in the bullpen and offense coffin.

[naivin]

Momentum is tomorrow's starting pitching.

[jake53098]

Is there not a game-thread on here? Anyways, kinda happy with Yost's lineup for today but again not too much

2B Ray Durham
SS JJ Hardy
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
RF GABE KAPLER
CF Mike Cameron
3B Craig Counsell (why not use Mike Lamb? see what he can do)
C Jason Kendall (Is Yost trying to kill him? Give him a day off before the Phillies series)
P CC Sabathia

[jeffy]

With 2/5 of our rotation dominant, we will win at least 40% of our games the rest of the way.

 

And actually, S & S will start 8 of the remaining 17 games (if necessary). Maybe they win 6 of those and 3 of the other 9...giving them 91 wins for the season and hopefully just enough to hold on to the wild card. They will need to start hitting again though and swinging at everything is not a good plan for achieving that.