Fielder's power drop

[nate82]

How many players are there that are truly as fat as Prince? While I don't think you can definitively attribute the weight (gain?) to production, I think just as much that you can't definitively write it off either. Like I said, I can't imagine it helps. Having man breasts and a huge belly simply cannot have a positive effect on a players timing and balance, and Fielder has looked pretty bad in both those areas at times this year.

David Ortiz being one. Manny Ramirez was lighter the last couple of seasons or at least it looks that way when I see him from year to year. Pujols has put on some weight from last year he looks like 2.5 Pujols's or a half of a Prince from his rookie year weight wise.

[rluzinski]

I didn't mean to imply that Prince's weight has no negative effect on his performance. What I'm looking at is his SLG being 75 points lower than his projection this year, vs. whatever weight he gained since the end of last year. Isn't that what supposed to be the topic of this thread?

 

I don't see the theory that the X amount of pounds he gained cost him 75 SLG points as plausible. Maybe it's one small factor but there are countless other factors to consider.

[Ennder]

Hopefully to bring forth additional objective discussion, here are some batted ball statistics for Prince:

 BABIP LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB Rank ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- 2007 .286 19.3% 34.9% 45.8% 8.1% 23.9% 6th 2008 .293 17.1% 43.3% 39.6% 10.5% 18.3% 25th 

 

Pretty much across the board he's not driving it like last season. Less liners, more pop-ups, less flyballs, and less of those flyballs are leaving the yard. And BABIP has nothing to do with it.

 

I don't think I can get splits on batted ball stats, but I don't think its just isolated to April. August has actually been his worst SLG month, and he's only had two months in which he approached his SLG number from all of last season.

 

I do think he'll bounce back to somewhere between 2007 and 2008 next year, but I think the slugging brownout could be more than just noise.

 

Yeah but the August SLG is being driven by a low BABIP induced AVG most likely because of all the groundouts he has been having lately. His actual power numbers are about the same as in July, it is the singles that are down. He hit 1 HR per 25.125 AB in April/May and then 1 per 14.6 AB from June-August. Last year he was insanely hot for two chunks of the season and this year he has been hot for like one week.

 

Feels more like natural variation and a bit of regression to the mean than anything else to me. Anytime a power hitter has multiple months of over 10 HR you can pretty safely expect him to dip the next year. Next year I expect him to come out and have somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 numbers, probably high 30s or low 40s HR, he is taking too many BBs to approach 50 on a regular basis.

[kramnoj]

I don't see the theory that the X amount of pounds he gained cost him 75 SLG points as plausible. Maybe it's one small factor but there are countless other factors to consider.

 

Nobody in this thread has said that his weight has cost him 75 points in slugging. Nobody has really come close to saying that. One poster said that it has reduced his ability as a player, but not as a hitter. I believe it has had a minor effect on doubles and another said it may have some effect, but difficult to quantify.

[JJHardy7]

Plenty of big guys had no problem keeping their raw power and it's not like Prince has gained much weight from last year, anyway.

 

What is 'plenty'? I might be missing some guys, but I do not think there are plenty of guys with Prince's body type.

 

Regardless of the reason for the decline the Brewers have to be somewhat happy that they haven't extended Prince. I'm not saying he's a horrible player, but Prince is going to have to work hard to get an extension from the Brewers. I wish the best for Prince and I can't imagine how good he could be if he would show up in '09 a lot lighter and more ripped. The one thing that I find interesting about this is that Prince seems to want to show up his dad and be better, which is fine. Prince's dad couldn't field and had to be a DH -- shouldn't that be Prince's motivation?

[Ennder]

What is 'plenty'? I might be missing some guys, but I do not think there are plenty of guys with Prince's body type.

 

Regardless of the reason for the decline the Brewers have to be somewhat happy that they haven't extended Prince. I'm not saying he's a horrible player, but Prince is going to have to work hard to get an extension from the Brewers. I wish the best for Prince and I can't imagine how good he could be if he would show up in '09 a lot lighter and more ripped. The one thing that I find interesting about this is that Prince seems to want to show up his dad and be better, which is fine. Prince's dad couldn't field and had to be a DH -- shouldn't that be Prince's motivation?

But again you are blaming his weight for an off year when there is absolutely not a shred of evidence that it is the problem. He very easily could come into camp in 2009 with the exact same body shape and hit 60 HRs, there is no proof of any sort that the weight is an issue. I think that was his point exactly. Every year dozens of players drop large amounts of SLG for no reason at all, stop trying to read too much into it.

 

From June 1st through Sept 1st Fielder has displayed almost exactly the HR rate that would have been expected out of him, so did the weight really only slow him down in Apr/May for some reason? Has it only hurt his doubles rate? Seems like a pretty big reach to me blaming the weight.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

Maybe his girth is slowing down his bat speed, or affecting his mechanics somewhat. I'm amazed when atheletes have so much at stake and they still can't get there butts in shape.

[JJHardy7]

But again you are blaming his weight for an off year when there is absolutely not a shred of evidence that it is the problem. He very easily could come into camp in 2009 with the exact same body shape and hit 60 HRs, there is no proof of any sort that the weight is an issue. I think that was his point exactly. Every year dozens of players drop large amounts of SLG for no reason at all, stop trying to read too much into it.

 

It's hard to make a case that his weight IS the factor, but until we know otherwise it's at least one of the reasons.

 

His point (at least from what I have read) states that 'plenty' of big guys have done fine and I'm curious as to what players make up this 'plenty'. I very well could be missing some guys, but I do think Prince's body type is very unique in baseball and I don't think there are 'plenty' like him. Does this mean Prince stinks? Of course not, but IMO it's worth watching especially as free agency approaches in the next few years.

 

I also think Prince is valued a little too high around here. Some of the trade discussion seems quite off. I don't think Prince is worth as much as some think here -- he plays a position that should slug and drive in runs. I think the Brewers will keep him the next few years because there aren't a lot of teams willing to give up a ton of talent for him IMO.

[Never Outhustled]

To me, the scary thing about Fielder is not the 150 point drop in OPS this year, its what if it continues next year. With his defense, he's no longer an asset if his OPS drops any farther.

[TheCrew07]

The whole "meat" thing may be moot now... I've heard a similar rumor from 2 different sources now that Prince has quietly been eating meat again since the early part of the summer. I have no idea how true it is, obviously I run in the football side of the sports community up here, but there are some people up here that are pretty well connected to the entire WI scene. I'd actually be somewhat disapointed in him if it were true, not because I'm a vegetarian (far from it actually), but because he made such an issue of out of it, and in the end wouldn't have stood up for what he believes in. Then again, I'd also wonder how well thought out his decision was in the first place.

 

As far as his power goes, I understand where Ennder was coming from with the "walks too much" comment, but the truth is that Prince has given away far too many ABs this year, especially after Braun hits a HR in front of him. To me, Prince hasn't looked good at the plate all year, more often than not he's swinging off his back foot trying to crush the ball which leads to weak grounders and pop ups. I liked his approach much better last year, he didn't take as many huge cuts at the ball and had better results. When he gets his pitch, he needs to hit the hell out of it for sure, but he's not getting 3 meatballs in every AB like his swing would suggest.

[JJHardy7]

I liked his approach much better last year, he didn't take as many huge cuts at the ball and had better results.

 

Maybe it's just me, but I think Prince hit to all fields a little bit more last year. I don't know if the numbers will show that, but he seemed to focus on that a bit more in the past.

[TooLiveBrew]

As far as his power goes, I understand where Ennder was coming from with the "walks too much" comment, but the truth is that Prince has given away far too many ABs this year, especially after Braun hits a HR in front of him.

 

Could you share the results of Prince's ABs following a Braun HR? I'm not sure where to find that.

[rluzinski]

Nobody in this thread has said that his weight has cost him 75 points in slugging.

 

There was this:

 

"He has lost bat speed due to his ever increasing girth. Harder to "fire your hips" when you have a big lunch bucket restricting this movement.

There you have it!"

I agree, though, that most opinions have been pretty reasonable.

[valpocrewsader]

Prince is behind had 35 doubles last season and he currently has 21 doubles this year. I doubt his weight has really been a problem for him getting doubles. If Prince only hit 21 doubles all year then I would say this is correct but he will end up with about 30 doubles this year.

He has averaged 4 doubles a month for the first 5 months of the year, but now he'll definitely get 9 in September? Wha?? He's on pace for 25 or 26, I wouldn't use this as exhibit A in the case against whether Prince's fatty body is leading to less doubles.

[valpocrewsader]

Prince has now gone 90 straight plate appearances without an extra base hit. Coming into today's game, his last 19 games have produced a line of: .167 BA, .271 OBP, .167 SLG, and .438 OPS. August 14th through September 5th with our cleanup hitter sporting a .167 SLG and .438 OPS. He REALLY needs to get his act together and help this team score some runs. Factor in his god awful defense and we'd literally be much better off having started someone like Counsell at 1B for the previous 20 days or so.

 

Prince has been quietly atrocious. Like really, really, really bad in all phases of the game. For almost a month.

 

 

EDIT: I take full credit for Prince's second at bat tonight. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[monty57]

While there are numerous possible explanations, some quantifiable, some not, I think part of the problem is that he is the only dangerous left-handed bat in the lineup. He has faced a lot of LOOGY's this year, plus it seems that the Brewers have faced a lot of LH starters. On top of that, many righties pitch around him, leading to the higher number of walks, and probably to more swings at pitches out of the strike zone. I have no probems with him taking the walks, but it could throw him out of rhythm by rarely seeing a good pitch to hit. Not everyone can be like Barry Bonds and only see one pitch to hit all night and hit it for a HR.

[biedergb]

I'm sorry, but Prince is supposed to be an everyday player, and wants to be paid as much, he needs to hit LHP. He will be pitched around, sure, like Bonds did, like Pujols and other have. If Prince is to be a superstar, and he certainly thinks he is (and has shown to ability to be that in '07) then he has to be productive more often than (in terms of games). Star players can carry their team for stretches. Prince did that last year a couple of times. Braun did it last year and this. Sure, role players like Hardy, Hart will carry the team for a bit as well, but Prince hasn't carried this offense at all this year. His power is down, his batting average is down. His K numbers will likely be up. And his BBs will marginally be up. At this point of the season we needs our start to step up. CC has. Sheets has. Braun is due. Prince has virtually disappeared.

 

Now I know this is harsh statement on PRince, and the contra argument would be that he is help to lofty standards, but this is what his past performances and his own words have created, lofty standards of a MVP candidate. And this whole rant is just about his offensive shortcomings this season, another thread could be opened regarding his defensive shortcomings.

[Loopee]

I would be interested to know whether Prince's batspeed has dropped at all this year. It's entirely possible that the change in diet has caused some problems, especially if he's not being disciplined and "cheating" on what the dieticians have told him. (it's difficult to be a vegetarian with a lot of fast-twitch muscle)

[jwill535]

There is weight gain and that is obvious. The biggest effect that the weight gain has on him is his balance. Look at him as he bats, look how uncomfratable he is in swinging the bat, how many more times he falls over the plate or on his face like he did in the Pirates season. There is not going to be any statisticle evidence that shows what weight gain can do but as someone who put on 50lbs in 3 years after getting married and noticed a significant drop off in balance and power while playing baseball/softball and golf, I can tell you that it has a major effect on your swing. The inverse is also true, David Duval after winning the Brittish Open lost something like 50lbs and ever since then has struggled to adjust to not having the weight there.

[Diggr14]

Prince needs to get back on the Cheeseburgeroids, enough of this deep fried Oreo garbage. In a study taken in 2008 done on Prince Fielder, the results have shown that real 50HR men eat meat.

[sweepscc]

Brewers should give him the Gilbert Brown treatment and send him to Duke University for an all rice diet. Think he'll go for that?

[nate82]

Why do you think that 30% of his doubles will occur in the last 17% of the season? My opinion isn't just looking at BRef, in my observation I've seen Prince get thrown out at 2B when I think a lighter Prince would have made it last year. It won't have a huge impact on his slugging percentage, but I think it has had some.

 

Prince isn't just big. He's obese, he has rolls of fat at the back of his neck. How can he not be slower, which would have an impact on his ability to leg out a double?

It looks like that 30% of his doubles are occurring in the last 17% of the season.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm sorry, but Prince is supposed to be an everyday player, and wants to be paid as much, he needs to hit LHP.

 

Prior to games on 9/24/08, Prince Fielder career v. LHP: .246/.327/.465/.793

 

Ryan Howard career v. LHP: .231/.315/.470/.785

[kramnoj]

It looks like that 30% of his doubles are occurring in the last 17% of the season.

 

I asked you why you thought it would happen. That wasn't a gotcha question. I was wondering what your reasoning was. Did you see something in Prince that led you to believe this would happen? Were you just counting on him to hit his recent averages? I'd actually be impressed if you saw something coming , explained why it would happen and then predicted it would happen and it happened. As it is, it still looks like Prince will hit fewer doubles than last year, and of course he will hit fewer home runs as well.