Fielder's power drop

[recte44]

Was just looking through the box from tonight's game and I noticed something I hadn't before.

 

Prince Fielder is FOURTH on the club in slugging (Braun, Cameron, Hart lead him). Hardy is just .006 behind the Prince.

 

I know he's having an "off" season, but man, what a dropoff.

[Ennder]

From June 1st until now he has a line of .264/.369/.525/.894 and 1 HR per 14.2 AB and that is right after an 0-8 stretch. The majority of the issue is still the slow April/May and amped up expectations after his big year last season. I think it is more fair to expect a low to mid .900 OPS out of him than a 1.000 OPS.

 

I don't think anyone is happy with the season he is having right now but I don't think it is something to freak out over either. He just hasn't had that insanely hot stretch at all this season.

[Worm8181]

I thought it was because he doesn't eat meat.

[liveforoctober]

I don't think anyone is happy with the season he is having right now but I don't think it is something to freak out over either.

I'm actually very happy he has had a down year and the Brewers have still played as well as they have. Prince having a "down season" this year probably saved the Brewers about 2.5 or 3 million dollars in Arby money next year. But he's been good enough where I'm still confident he will come up big when needed. Actually a fairly good scenario for the Crew...

 

 

(edit: long quote --1992)

[razzzorsharp]

I'm actually very happy he has had a down year and the Brewers have still played as well as they have. Prince having a "down season" this year probably saved the Brewers about 2.5 or 3 million dollars in Arby money next year. But he's been good enough where I'm still confident he will come up big when needed. Actually a fairly good scenario for the Crew...

I would rather he had a better season and the Brewers would be in better position to make the playoffs even if it costs a little more.

 

 

(edit: nested quote --1992)

[leadheadned]

He has lost bat speed due to his ever increasing girth. Harder to "fire your hips" when you have a big lunch bucket restricting this movement.

There you have it!

[Invader3K]

It's really hard to point to any one problem with Fielder. I do think he has probably gained at least some weight since last year, but how much or how it has effected his play is really impossible for anyone here to say. It sometimes feels like he's swinging for the fences with every at bat, instead of just letting his natural strength propel the ball like he seemed to last year.

[mkm13]

I am not sure if there are other reasons but I can say with 100% confidence that carrying 80 pounds of extra fat will lower your ability as a baseball player. When you look at his horrid defense and extremely slow speed on the bases, he is probably the 5th best all around position player on the team (behind Braun, Hart, Hardy and Cameron). I want no part of him long term.

[stoutdude04]

I am not sure if there are other reasons but I can say with 100% confidence that carrying 80 pounds of extra fat will lower your ability as a baseball player. When you look at his horrid defense and extremely slow speed on the bases, he is probably the 5th best all around position player on the team (behind Braun, Hart, Hardy and Cameron). I want no part of him long term.

Are you implying he has gained 80 pounds since last year? I would like for you to prove that in any way if that is the case. Or, are you just saying that he is bigger then most? If its the second one, it didnt seem to hurt him much last year. He doesnt appear to be 80 pounds heavier.

[TooLiveBrew]

I am not sure if there are other reasons but I can say with 100% confidence that carrying 80 pounds of extra fat will lower your ability as a baseball player.

 

80 extra pounds? If Prince's ability wasn't hindered in 2007, the argument here would have to be that he gained 80 pounds.

 

It's baseball -- it's variance. Well, coupled with unrealistic expectations from the fans. Guys just don't hit 50 bombs every season. I'm certainly not disappointed with Prince's season. His plate discipline has gotten even better, and like Ennder said, with that one huge hot stretch that still may be coming, this discussion really isn't even sensible. Now of course he hasn't gotten hot like that yet (insane hot streak), but just pointing out how small the difference is.

 

As of today, his BA is actually lower at this point than 2006, but his OBP is 20 points higher, and his OPS+ is 12 points higher. I think that, in general, he's showing growth & polish as a hitter, and that's about all I can ask for in a 24-year old. I really think that Prince is either going to have a monstrous power surge in September, or continued improvement in his OBP. I'd be fine with either one.

[mkm13]

Are you implying he has gained 80 pounds since last year? I would like for you to prove that in any way if that is the case. Or, are you just saying that he is bigger then most? If its the second one, it didnt seem to hurt him much last year. He doesnt appear to be 80 pounds heavier.

No I am not implying he has gained 80 pounds since last year. He has probably gained about 10 to 20 pounds though. I am just saying that as an all around baseball player he is probably only slightly above average and I hope we do not put a lot of money into him long term...and a lot of that has to do with his weight. He probably played a little over his head last year on offense and struggled for a stretch this year...gaining 10-20 pounds might have hurt as well. His hitting ability is not really a concern to me. His all around ability as a baseball player is. His defense costs us a lot of runs each year and his slow base running leaves a lot of runs on the bases compared to a guy with average to above average speed. I just get frustrated watching a guy that has so much potential as an all around player limit himself to being 1 dimensional because he can't get in shape.

[valpocrewsader]

His last two weeks at the plate have been pathetic. .163 BA, .163 SLG (no extra base hits), and .422 OPS in the last 13 games coming into today. Downright awful.

[trwi7]

As of today, his BA is actually lower at this point than 2006, but his OBP is 20 points higher, and his OPS+ is 12 points higher. I think that, in general, he's showing growth & polish as a hitter, and that's about all I can ask for in a 24-year old. I really think that Prince is either going to have a monstrous power surge in September, or continued improvement in his OBP. I'd be fine with either one.

I'm not sure what comparing what he did his rookie year to this year proves, but he has been a disappointment. I didn't expect 50 homers again but I don't think it should be unrealistic for a first baseman as big as him to slug at least .525.

 

And yes, he definitely has gained weight. A lot. I was watching the 2005 game where he and Rickie hit their first homers of their careers and it was stunning to me how much bigger he's gotten since then.

[sbrylski]

Hopefully to bring forth additional objective discussion, here are some batted ball statistics for Prince:

 BABIP LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB Rank ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- 2007 .286 19.3% 34.9% 45.8% 8.1% 23.9% 6th 2008 .293 17.1% 43.3% 39.6% 10.5% 18.3% 25th 

 

Pretty much across the board he's not driving it like last season. Less liners, more pop-ups, less flyballs, and less of those flyballs are leaving the yard. And BABIP has nothing to do with it.

 

I don't think I can get splits on batted ball stats, but I don't think its just isolated to April. August has actually been his worst SLG month, and he's only had two months in which he approached his SLG number from all of last season.

 

I do think he'll bounce back to somewhere between 2007 and 2008 next year, but I think the slugging brownout could be more than just noise.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm not sure what comparing what he did his rookie year to this year proves, but he has been a disappointment. I didn't expect 50 homers again but I don't think it should be unrealistic for a first baseman as big as him to slug at least .525.

 

Not sure where I was unclear -- I talked about his overall progression as a player. Yes, this season has been a bit disappointing, but only in terms of HR count for me.

[kramnoj]

I didn't expect 50 homers again but I don't think it should be unrealistic for a first baseman as big as him to slug at least .525.

 

Only 4 1B right now are slugging .525 (Miguel Cabrera is close at .523). It should also be noted that the run environment is the lowest its been since Prince has been up. Per BRef, the average league slugging in MP this year is .428, it was .438 last year and .444 two years ago. At this point, Prince's bulk isn't beneficial to him. In fact, it probably reduces his slugging a bit because his slower speed will result in less doubles.

[silversurferr]

Yep, he has gained weight. Also, teams are pitching him differently than last year by staying off the plate. As good a hitter as Corey is, most teams would rather get beat by a Hart single rather than a Fielder dinger.

[RoseBowlMtg]

I wonder how much it is about his attitude. The taxes, his dad, no meat, the contract, etc. He opted out of the season ticket holder bat signing they promised early in the season when the Brewers said "something came up" and we got Braun's bat signing instead. (not a bad trade off). When you hear the radio stations do events and read about signings you never see Prince involved. This has been an individual decision by him because you know the Brewers would love for him to promote baseball to the places they go to. Interesting mind set by a young man who is firm in his individual decisions.

[DougJones43]

Yeah, Prince's power output this season has been disappointing, and although it's difficult to quantify the effect, I'm sure that his enormous fatness isn't helping matters. He's destined to become the next Mo Vaughn, although I don't think he'll be nearly as good and I think he might decline even earlier than Vaughn.

 

He's as good as gone in his first year of free agency anyway. Maybe we can get him to agree to jiggle back over to the Brewers dugout once every mid-season to shove somebody and get the team going.

[nate82]

At this point, Prince's bulk isn't beneficial to him. In fact, it probably reduces his slugging a bit because his slower speed will result in less doubles.

Prince is behind had 35 doubles last season and he currently has 21 doubles this year. I doubt his weight has really been a problem for him getting doubles. If Prince only hit 21 doubles all year then I would say this is correct but he will end up with about 30 doubles this year.

[rluzinski]

ZiPs pegged Prince's SLG at .571 for the 2008 season, so some dropoff was expected (from .618 in 07') but much of it was not. I think sbrylski's numbers show that Prince just hasn't hit the ball as hard as he did in 2007, for whatever reason. I have no idea why but feel that using his (presumed) weight gain as an explanation is terribly implausible. Plenty of big guys had no problem keeping their raw power and it's not like Prince has gained much weight from last year, anyway.

[kramnoj]

At this point, Prince's bulk isn't beneficial to him. In fact, it probably reduces his slugging a bit because his slower speed will result in less doubles.

Prince is behind had 35 doubles last season and he currently has 21 doubles this year. I doubt his weight has really been a problem for him getting doubles. If Prince only hit 21 doubles all year then I would say this is correct but he will end up with about 30 doubles this year.

Why do you think that 30% of his doubles will occur in the last 17% of the season? My opinion isn't just looking at BRef, in my observation I've seen Prince get thrown out at 2B when I think a lighter Prince would have made it last year. It won't have a huge impact on his slugging percentage, but I think it has had some.

 

Edit:

"I have no idea why but feel that using his (presumed) weight gain as an explanation is terribly implausible. Plenty of big guys had no problem keeping their raw power and it's not like Prince has gained much weight from last year, anyway."

 

Prince isn't just big. He's obese, he has rolls of fat at the back of his neck. How can he not be slower, which would have an impact on his ability to leg out a double?

[wallus]

Didn't Prince has a faster time with his in the park homerun this year versus last year? His weight gain has been vastly overblown.

[Worm8181]

Last year he hit it off the speaker and wasn't even running hard until about second base. I think.

[DougJones43]

I have no idea why but feel that using his (presumed) weight gain as an explanation is terribly implausible. Plenty of big guys had no problem keeping their raw power and it's not like Prince has gained much weight from last year, anyway.

How many players are there that are truly as fat as Prince? While I don't think you can definitively attribute the weight (gain?) to production, I think just as much that you can't definitively write it off either. Like I said, I can't imagine it helps. Having man breasts and a huge belly simply cannot have a positive effect on a players timing and balance, and Fielder has looked pretty bad in both those areas at times this year.