Bold Prediction - Cubs will lose in first round of playoffs

[DonMoney4Mgr]

Although the Cubs have been firing on all cylinders most of the season, at some point several hitters will slump simultaneously. This will occur during the playoffs IMO.

 

Most likely, they will have to face Arizona. It would be nice if AZ lined up with Webb, Haren, and Johnson (ERA under 2 since ASB)

 

Further, Zambrano has not been lights out lately, he's hittable. Webb vs. Zambrano, I like Webb. And if AZ can split in Chicago, I think they can pull it off in a short series with that 3 headed monster.

[Ennder]

Zambrano is the weakest ace of any playoff team(he is a clear cut #2 imo) so I could see that causing issues, especially if Harden ends up getting hurt. If Harden stays healthy it makes the Cubs so much more dangerous since he is a legit #1 when healthy just one that doesn't go deep into games.

[holybannana]

I don't know. Honestly, and this is hard to say, but the truth is this is the Cubs' season to blow. They are the best team in MLB to date and in some respects it isn't even close. Of course they could blow it, but I wouldn't bank on it.

 

The Cubs should be the odds on favorite to win it all at this point. I'd love them to lose. But whatever. I'm not worrying about them until the Brewers have to face them again.

[rluzinski]

All a bold prediction means is that someone wouldn't be willing to bet a dime on it happening. Let me know if I'm wrong.

 

The Cubs could lose in the first round but the odds certainly aren't over 45%

[danzig6767]

All a bold prediction means is that someone wouldn't be willing to bet a dime on it happening. Let me know if I'm wrong.

Yep

 

Given the unpredictable nature of baseball in a short series format, Vegas will have the Cubs favored to beat Arizona, but the line won't be huge. Predicting the Cubs will lose in the first round is roughly like saying i'm going to flip a coin 10 times and i predict it will land on heads 6 or 7 times.

[True CryM]

I don't think it's that bold at all. Randy Johnson absolutely owns the Cubs. I think I read that his success versus the Cubs is the second best record against a single opponent in MLB history. The only problem is the Dbacks bullpen. Their top three starters would need to go 7+ for them to have any chance. I'd take the odds on AZ in a short series.

[TooLiveBrew]

Randy Johnson's success or lack thereof against any team means little to nothing in terms of future performance, and especially in a series in which he'd be projected to make 1 start at the most.

 

The Cubs are a better team than Arizona, though the D-Backs adding Rauch & Dunn certainly has made them a better team.

[lcbj68c]

There were certainly be a lot of pressure on the Cubs to make the World Series at a minimum. Winning 100+ games is absolutely a worthless season, a complete waste of an entire 6 months if they fail to make it out of the first round. That's a lot of pressure on a ballclub and I fully expect them to fold miserably as usual.

[Invader3K]

I've heard Cubs fans are very nervous about their team facing the D-Backs in the first round. They should be...Arizona definitely has the pitching to handle the Cubs, I'm just not sure how Arizona's lineup stacks up against Cubs pitching. I could see it going either way, honestly.

[brewcrewkid14]

I'm more worried about the Brewers winning in the first round than I am about the Cubs winning in the first round...

[Leinie Lodge]

The Big Unit's career dominance over the Cubs is truly historic, even as recent as July 21 he outdueled Rich Harden, who spun a gem of his own.

 

Anyone have Webb's and Haren's career stats at Wrigley?

[mothershipconnection]

If Harden stays healthy it makes the Cubs so much more dangerous since he is a legit #1 when healthy

 

Harden could make all the difference for them in the playoffs, as he's got the potential to give you a lead off the bat in a short series and two dominant performances in each 7 game series.

[azcheesehead]

Guys, I can see AZ knocking off Chicago pretty easily. Webb and Haren are one of (if not) the best 1-2 punches in the NL right now. CC and Ben would be if Ben could get straightened out a little. Justin Upton was recently brought back up from injuries, Max Scherzer was just brought up to put in the pen, and Adam Dunn has been playing very well since coming over from the Reds. If Orlando Hudson were still playing, I would bet big money on AZ beating them. Webb, Haren, and Johnson are Cubs kryptonite.

[diesmitty]

Absolutely my Cubs could slump and lose in the first round. I'm petrified of it every day. The Cubs probably have the best overall regular season team in the NL, but in a short series with top notch pitchers and no room for error it wouldn't shock me at all (just depress me).

 

A couple of points regarding playoff baseball:

 

1) You don't get to tee off on the Pirates, Reds, Nationals, etc.

2) Patient teams sometimes have struggles in the postseason as they are less likely to face a pitcher who struggles with control. As the Cubs saw with Cole Hamels the other night, its really really difficult to draw works or even work counts when a pitcher has impeccable control and is throwing pitcher's strikes. This is the Cubs biggest weapon and it will be neutralized against most pitchers in the playoffs. If the Cubs come into the playoffs hitting the ball well, then its a different story.

3) The Cubs lack that one feared player that every pitcher hesitates when they come up. Obviously even Albert Pujols slumps, but in most series a player of his caliber is the last thing you want to see. The Cubs have a lot of very good hitters but no great ones.

4) Again, its easy to throw to Ryan Zimmerman, Elija Dukes, etc, but as Ryan Dempster learned the other day, its much more difficult to pitch to Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell. Dempster started nibbling, lost his control, and eventually got hit.

 

Bottom line, the Arizona Diamondbacks are by FAR the worst possible matchup for the Cubs in the first round of the playoffs. By far, and that includes the Brewers. Maybe my fears would be aleviated if the Cubs win game 1 and the jitters go down, but if the Cubs lose Game 1 at home, suddenly its impossible for even the most composed player to not panic a little in their minds. Everyone says they don't think about the curse and the drought, etc but its there.

[Postseason2006]

Is that really being bold?

[And That]

Is that really being bold?

I don't know... would you care to explain why you think it isn't?

[Postseason2006]

Considering the Cubs history and last year's quick 3 games and out routine.... They missed Webb and Haren this year did they not as starters? And then throw in Lou's lack of success and taking the best team in baseball history record wise no where...

[Janelle Larson]

Using "100 years" as a logical reason is silly. Last years team is irrelevant seeing as the Cubs have as many wins before September as all season last year.

 

The Cubs are 4-2 against Arizona and swept them when Arizona was playing their best and had the best record in baseball. You can say they missed Webb (they beat Haren). But Arizona missed Zambrano, faced Dempster once, and Harden once.

 

"Lou's lack of success" actually makes me agree with you. 5 game series are full of randomness and luck. No such thing as a bold prediction because in a short series no one is THAT much of a favourite over another. So yeah, the 01 Mariners proves this. But to Lou's credit, he does have a WS ring with the underdog Reds.

[Postseason2006]

The Reds may have been underdogs going against the A's but the A's ran into a buzzsaw called the Cincy offense and Jose Rijo, not two mention the 2 headed closer in Charlton and Dibble.

 

I also don't get how last year is irrelevant since they failed to accomplish anything like a "fart in the wind". Again, when you are comparing pitchers, Webb compared to Cra Z is like comparing a Kia to a Lexus. I would rather have Webb who has proven to a competent pitcher unlike Big Z.

 

You also did fail to mention the DBacks added a beast in Dunn to hit against your overloaded RH starting pitching. I also recall that Dunn has hit some monster homers against the Cubs in his career.

[Brewcrewin07]

Adam Dunn owns the Cubs, along with Randy Johnson. There is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that if the Cubs have to face the Dbacks in the first round, they'll be going home again....and the beauty is, I think most of their fans feel this way deep down as well. Make no mistake about it, they want absolutely nothing to do with the Dbacks.

[ELCABALLO45]

Anything is possible in the playoffs.

 

After the 4 teams in each league are figured out, it does not matter who has the best in the regular season. Its a free for all.

 

Thats what makes the playoffs so great...

 

Arizona - Webb,Haren and Johnson

 

Chicago - Zambrano, Harden and Dempster

 

Milwaukee - Sabathia, Sheets and Suppan

 

Anything can happen. But if the D-Backs and Cubs played each other right now.. , Hmm.. I would probably have to go with Chicago.

[Ennder]

My money would be on the D-Backs. Zambrano's arm isn't right, Harden can't go deep into games and I just refuse to believe Dempster won't fade given the switch from RP to SP and how much better he is doing than expected. I think if any team in the playoffs is primed for the big falloff it is the Cubs or maybe the Rays since they are just so young.

 

Granted I said the same thing about the Cardinals the last time they won the World Series so what do I know~.