Gustav / Ike

[Patrick425]

Hate to jump the gun on this, especially since it's not even a Hurricane at the moment (expected to redevelop into a Category 1 later today). Also, I know that Hurricane predictions are not an exact science, but many of the models not only have this thing developing into a Cat 3 or 4 hurricane once it hits the warm waters of the Gulf, but they also have early landfall predictions in the vicinity of New Orleans.

 

I was looking at population figures for New Orleans. Pre-Katrina, it appeared they were near 500,000. In July of '06 they were down to about 210,000. The latest census has them at about 240,000, but city officials disagree with that number and say it's closer to 300,000. Whatever the current population actually may be, do you think anyone would return to New Orleans again if they suffered another catastrophic Hurricane like Katrina?

 

(updated thread title to accommodate Ike - hawing)

[lcbj68c]

No. I have spoken to several people who live in the Houston area and have lived there pre-Katrina. They have seen the influx of minorities that scrambled to the area post-Katrina. Apparently, all you have to do is mention/prove that you were a "victim" of Katrina and you are moved to the top of housing and employment lists in Eastern Texas. Couple that with other government welfare programs and there is no incentive for a majority of "victims" to return to New Orleans now, let alone if another hurricane hit. Again on has to remember that the hurricane did not do the majority of the damage, it was the failure of the levee system. A level 3 hurricane would likely not reproduce the type of damage seen during Katrina, simply because of the levee situation wont be reproduced.

[tristarscoop]

They also aren't going to let people stay. Instead of setting up evacuation centers like the SuperDome, they're just bussing everyone out. They're already brought the busses in.

[craigharmann]

They seem to be much more prepared this time with New Orleans. Only problem is that no one knows exactly where this is going. It could come all the way over here to Texas, or it could go all the way over to Florida. Pretty much no one is expecting it to hit Florida, but I can tell you, the San Antonio news stations are covering this like crazy, because whether we get rain or not, people will be coming here, whether it's from Louisiana, Houston, or wherever. It seems like even if the hurricane were to hit New Orleans, they seem much better prepared, thank God.

[Patrick425]

I have been watching this thing all week. I'm a bit of a weather geek. In particular I have been reading Dr. Masterson's blog on weatherunderground.com. Nothing I read up until today predicted that Gustav would develop into a major hurricane before it passed Cuba and hit the warm Gulf waters.

 

I didn't really read anything it over the last day and was shocked when I saw TV coverage of it at a resturant earlier this morning. A Category 4 as it slams into Cuba and all computer models pretty much are in agreement now as to it's future landfall somewhere along the Lousiana coast. Just incredible.

[lcbj68c]

The outflow in all four quadrants developing so quickly is what is amazing. The Cuba landscape is doing little to break up or disorganize the eye and eyewall. It should also be noted that the forward speed has picked up a bit. A bit of a double edge sword as if it slows down the waters near the coast get a bit cooler, yet the rain would linger longer. My favorite site is www.hurricanealley.net I like looking at the spaghetti models and diciphering why each model came up with the conclusion they did based on fronts and pressure systems, etc.

[craigharmann]

It looks like this is going to be a big one. Thankfully, they're already starting to evacuate near New Orleans and areas around there, so we don't have a repeat of Katrina. I'm hoping that somehow, for the sake of everyone, this somehow diminishes, but it doesn't look like it will.

[owbc]

Somewhat fortunately, New Orleans looks like it will be spared a direct hit again. However, Katrina wasn't a direct hit either. There's still some hope that it could shoot a little farther west, but in that scenario it would slow down and cause horrible flooding wherever it decides to stall out. I did Katrina recovery over the spring--at that time 6% or so of the lower 9th had returned--or about one house per block. The rest was just doorsteps where houses used to be. I highly doubt many of them will ever come back.

 

FEMA is definitely better prepared this time, but if it hits where it is projected to, levees will break again. This also will hit on the opposite side so the storm surge will come from the South instead of Lake Ponchartrain. Winds are also higher on the right side of the storm so there could be more wind damage this time.

 

The only good news I can think of is that there is some colder water right near the coast which will prevent it from being a cat. 5 at landfall--most likely a weak 4 or strong 3.

[lcbj68c]

I think I already see a wobble to the west here and there. I'm going to guess landfall at Port Arthur making New Orleans mostly a rain event.

[owbc]

Storm surge is going to be a problem because New Orleans is on the right side of the projected landfall path. Wind is usually a bigger problem on the right side as well, although Gustav looks to be stronger on the West side. That could change though.

 

Winds currently at 120 mph but a defined eye is reforming in the last few satellite images. Expect a Cat. 4 by this evening.

[JoeHova]

No. I have spoken to several people who live in the Houston area and have lived there pre-Katrina. They have seen the influx of minorities that scrambled to the area post-Katrina. Apparently, all you have to do is mention/prove that you were a "victim" of Katrina and you are moved to the top of housing and employment lists in Eastern Texas. Couple that with other government welfare programs and there is no incentive for a majority of "victims" to return to New Orleans now, let alone if another hurricane hit. Again on has to remember that the hurricane did not do the majority of the damage, it was the failure of the levee system. A level 3 hurricane would likely not reproduce the type of damage seen during Katrina, simply because of the levee situation wont be reproduced.

 

 

 

what the hell is this? Now race-baiting is allowed on this site?

[lcbj68c]

I think you are conjecturing something that isnt there. I'd be the last one to "race-bait". In fact, I just said minorities in general, no preference to color, creed, nor nationality. I was half-quoting a FEMA article and statistics released by the Texas govt. Basically stating they have no incentive to return. If I offended anyone w/ my research, I sincerely apologize.

[JoeHova]

Uh-huh. And the use of quotation marks around the word victim was just a mistake, I guess.

[bullox]

http://www.petaimg.com/uploads/1220251119.jpg

[jeffh]

Cat 3 storm, the first outer ban hits New Orleans.

[lcbj68c]

Uh-huh. And the use of quotation marks around the word victim was just a mistake, I guess.

Yes, the explotation of the welfare system and FEMA programs are highly documented. People that made insurance claims and claims for government services that were living in South Carolina at the time, etc are the "victims" in quotation marks that I am referring to. It was not a mistake. The only mistake was not being able to forecast how my research and message would be perceived, and for that I've apologized and apologize again.

[dadofandrew]

Actually, many of the low lying areas are still all but abandoned...people got their insurance money and left for places unknown.

 

Joe, are many of the people in that area (is it the 9th ward?) A/A? The ones you see interviewed are usually white, and you can barely understand them, heavy drawl and not very educated.

[JoeHova]

They have seen the influx of minorities that scrambled to the area post-Katrina. Apparently, all you have to do is mention/prove that you were a "victim" of Katrina and you are moved to the top of housing and employment lists in Eastern Texas. Couple that with other government welfare programs and there is no incentive for a majority of "victims" to return to New Orleans now

 

how can this be read as anything other than accusing minorities (mostly black people, based on the fact that pre-Katrina, 68% of the population was black) of scamming the government? Once again, somebody decides to take some anecdotal stories about a few people getting away with a scam and using those to paint a whole group of people (in this case, black people from New Orleans) as unsavory criminal types. It's the oldest trick in the book. I also like the touting of "research" (see I can use sarcastic quotation marks too!) which probably consisted of listening to Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh's calumnious rants on the radio.

[dadofandrew]

Well Joe, if 32% of the folks were non-black, I don't think it's a blanket statement against any one race. I'm sure there was plenty of fraud, my wife was shocked there are still FEMA trailers being lived in, 3 years later. I'm not surprised, but saddened.

[JoeHova]

Actually, many of the low lying areas are still all but abandoned...people got their insurance money and left for places unknown.

 

Joe, are many of the people in that area (is it the 9th ward?) A/A? The ones you see interviewed are usually white, and you can barely understand them, heavy drawl and not very educated.

 

 

 

There were white people too, but lcbj specifically referred to minorities. And why would people necessarily want to stay in New Orleans if their houses got washed away? How is it a moral failing to want to move somewhere where the chances of getting devastated by a natural disaster are not as high? I always thought people were free to move wherever they wanted in this country. I don't get why it would be different for Katrina victims.

[JoeHova]

Well Joe, if 32% of the folks were non-black, I don't think it's a blanket statement against any one race. I'm sure there was plenty of fraud, my wife was shocked there are still FEMA trailers being lived in, 3 years later. I'm not surprised, but saddened.

 

 

 

It was 68% black and 28% white. That leaves 4% of other minorities (or slightly more depending how they counted the 3% of Latinos). That's a 17-1 ratio if you are talking about minorities from New Orleans. I think it's obvious what group lcbj was referring to.

[dadofandrew]

Joe, I think they did the right thing by leaving, it is their right. However, it is often portrayed that the area "still has not recovered"...well, it has, it's just lots of folks decided living in a high risk area was dumb, so they chose to go elsewhere.

 

I'm still shocked that no one, other than myself, has even brought up the idea of "moving" part of New Orleans to an area at a higher sea level...I assume there just is not any available land to do so, but as Joe points out, not many people are willing to build or rebuild there, not to mention the crime is still much higher than it was.

[homer]

I said after katrina that they should just up and move the whole darn city north of Lake Ponchartrain. If Gustav doesn't flood the city again, another hurricane will within the next 100 years. It's below sea level for crying out loud. Why waste money rebuilding something that will just be destroyed again?

 

And I agree with Joe's original post - I thought the 'minority' comment was really pushing the limits of what's allowed on this board. That kind of thing should be on the political board.

[JoeHova]

Joe, I think they did the right thing by leaving, it is their right. However, it is often portrayed that the area "still has not recovered"...well, it has, it's just lots of folks decided living in a high risk area was dumb, so they chose to go elsewhere.

 

I'm still shocked that no one, other than myself, has even brought up the idea of "moving" part of New Orleans to an area at a higher sea level...I assume there just is not any available land to do so, but as Joe points out, not many people are willing to build or rebuild there, not to mention the crime is still much higher than it was.

 

 

 

I was wondering about that too. I think some towns on floodplains in the midwest have done that, but obviously New Orleans is a lot bigger. I think either that or really investing in levees and dikes and stuff like the Netherlands (60% of their population lives below sea level) has would be the answer. Unfortunately for NO, the money probably isn't there to do either of those things.

[lcbj68c]

Not to take this off topic, but Hanna is going to be impressive as well, perhaps for the Jacksonville area as a Level 2 Hurricane.