8/25 on out..

[2008 world champs]

I hope this is ok as I feel this is the point in the season where predictions can be made with pretty good accuracy considering we know who is good (Cubs Brewers) who is bad (nats , pirates) and the inbetween... Anyway I was goin through the contenders schedules the remainder of the season an i came up with some interesting results .

 

Florida Marlins...(had to draw the line somewhere) 17-14. This puts them at 84-78 for the season and out of the playoffs. While this doesn't come as a suprise to me, some figured they would catch fire with all of that starting pitching.There schedule isn't too bad but the Mets and Phillies will beat them up and eventually they should fall out of things in mid September.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers. 21-11....Putting them at 86-76 for the year. Yes, they are the odd ones out in that west race. Both the Dodgers and D-Backs have breezy Septembers. It's too bad (for them) that they didn't do the Manny deal around the same time Doug did the CC deal. I think that will ultimately cost them postseason in 2008.

 

D-Backs. 20-12...They win the division by two games at 88-74. I have them going 500 against LA and the rest of the teams they play are in 4th place or lower in the division. It will suck having Webb and Haren in the playoffs but that offense is the one I would rather face over the Dodger offense.

 

New York Mets. 19-12.. They finish 91-71 and tie with Philly for the NL East. I have no idea how divison tiebreakers work and this question will also come in play later.They will feast on the Nationals 6 times yet and the Braves for 3.

 

Philadelphia Phillies.. 20-12...Starting with a loss tonight.However, Philly will finish smoking hot . I have them somehow sweeping Atlanta and Washington over the last 4 series of the season to force a tie.

 

St Louis....17-13...Winning 90 games and getting 3rd will suck for La Russa and co. however, when that pitching gets healthy i think they will be a division champ in the years to come. I really like what St Louis has going for them. (and i could never cheer for the cubs if the brewers were stinkin it up)

 

Cubs. ..16-16.. (96-66) Some would call this a reach and it is but only to a certain degree. St Louis and the NL East Hopefully neutralize the cubs somewhat. The Brewers MUST win those 2 series remaining to have a chance at the division but with the pitching we bring forward I don't see why it can't happen.

 

Brewers 20-12..(96-66) It will take one heck of a run for this to hhappen but 20 wins is possible. I see more liek 18-19 but why not shoot for the stars. This would also, by my calculations put the head to head series total dead even. Would there be a tie breaker?

 

Anyway, I had a lot of time on my hands on vacation but this is what i love to do. I go series by series in stead of just eyeballin it. Iwould hope this could get some talk going about what it might take. The wild card barring a terrible collapse just appears ours right now with the schedule and the lead we have already. (Any Around the Horn watchers, I would hav been at -200 the amount of times i have mentioned the S word..schedule..lol)

[datrain711]

That's cool that you provided an explanation for all the teams. As far as the Brewers go, I wouldn't quite go as far as saying it tould be a "terrible collapse" if St. Louis beat us out for the Wild Card, but it obviously is ours to win. I don't think we have the firepower to catch the Cubs, although I'd love to be the first one to compliment you on proving me wrong http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

It should be interesting in the other divisions, as nobody has been able to pull away from the pack yet.

[lcbj68c]

If the Brewers and Cubs both finished at 96-66, or any tied record for that matter, the following tiebreakers would apply. (Assuming they are the top 2 teams in the National League)

 

A) The Club with the higher winning percentage in head-to-head competition between the two tied Clubs during the championship season; or

Currently the Cubs hold the edge at .600 to .400. Brewers going 4-2 makes them even, advancing to the next tiebreaker....

 

B) The Club with the higher winning percentage in intradivision games during the championship season; or

Currently the Cubs hold the edge at .603 to .593. The Brewers are 35-24 against the central, the Cubs a mere half game better at 35-23.

 

C) The Club with the higher winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games during the championship season; or

This is where it gets dicey. The Cubs & Brewers played 15 interleague games, meaning pending no rainouts, they'll play 147 intraleague games. Whether the last half of those is 73 or 74, is up for debate I guess. I'll take 74. All of the last 74 for both squads are intraleague games, so the percentage would start from Game #89 through Game #162 (again pending no rainouts). The Cubs are currently 28-14 (.666) over the Brewers 27-16 (.627). However, it should be noted that should we reach this tiebreaker, The Brewers would WIN this tiebreaker as they'd have a better winning percentage over the Cubs during those final 74 games regardless of the tied final record.

 

D) If the Clubs remain tied, then to the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in the last half plus one of intraleague games during the championship season, provided that such additional game was not a game between the two tied Clubs. This process will be followed game-by-game until the tie is broken.

[cubfan1126]

E: The last game played between the Bears and Packers. LOL

[lcbj68c]

Wouldn't that be a Packers loss? I dont have a Packers schedule in front of me, but I don't think they play prior to Sept. 28th.

[2008 world champs]

Dang it ! Don't know what i was thinking on that one. I was almost certain they played before then but i guess not.

[LUKE232323]

If it's this season, I'll easily take E. Bears will score maybe 10 points all season.

 

I'd have to check and see if we play by the end of Sept though.

[holybannana]

Tie breakers are settled by a tie breaker game I thought. MLB flips a coin for each potential tie breaking game to determine who hosts. That game is played and the winner goes on. I could be wrong, but thought this is how they dealt with ties in MLB.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

How about average score per game Cubs v. Bears...that could be fairly even this year.

[steve267268]

I know that this board likes to play with numbers from time to time... and i know it's fun to predict what will happen.. but i encourage all of you to just sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

I mean, i'm not trying to be a prude. Yes, if you look at the schedule it does say that we have a great chance at making the playoffs. But that's no gaurantee, by any means. It looks promising but if you think in terms of "we SHOULD make it", you leave yourself open to huge disappointment. After all, these are human beings not robots. Anything can happen. Just enjoy the ride!

[bullox]

Just enjoy the ride!

For some, crunching numbers is part of enjoying the ride. I find the numbers interesting to contemplate and discuss.

[lcbj68c]

Tie breakers are settled by a tie breaker game I thought. MLB flips a coin for each potential tie breaking game to determine who hosts. That game is played and the winner goes on. I could be wrong, but thought this is how they dealt with ties in MLB.

Only if the two teams are vieing for 1 spot. This wont be the case for the Cubs and Brewers, as they will be filling two spots. This tiebreaker can be found in the MLB official rule book, rule #33. It explains what to do if two teams from the same division are tied with the best record in the league and how to determine Wild Card or Division winner.

[JJHardy7]

For some, crunching numbers is part of enjoying the ride. I find the numbers interesting to contemplate and discuss.

 

I agree to a certain point, but there is a fine line. The numbers are nice and all, but it does get frustrating making the 'numbers' the final say in certain conversations. The 'numbers' are important, but I do believe that part of sports is beating the odds. The 'numbers' can't break everything down. If sports came down to clear stats, there'd be no need to watch -- we would already know who wins.

[bullox]

That's why I said it's part of enjoying the ride.

[cubfan1126]

Dang it ! Don't know what i was thinking on that one. I was almost certain they played before then but i guess not.

Don't play this year til Nov 16. Why the heck do you think I suggested it! Last game played was the 35-7 Bears victory at Soldier Field when Brett said it was too cold.