Dave Bush's peripherals

[olliegjw]

Thanks for the article BSCR. It is an interesting read, but seems pretty flawed to me. It is comparing apples and oranges. It is comparing offensive team strikeout totals and individual pitching strikeout totals. I think a better comparison would be the teams' pitching K totals related to team ERA.

 

While that comparison might be useful, I suspect the overall findings would remain the same.

Just did a quick check at the 2007 and 2008 seasons. These are the top teams in pitchers strikeouts and their ranking in MLB in team ERA.

 

2007:

1. Cubs (4)

2. Rays (30)

3. Dodgers (10)

4. Brewers (15)

 

2008:

1. Cubs (4)

2. Giants (17)

3. Reds (24)

 

So, in this sample, there doesn't seem to be a strong correlation between pitching strikeouts and ERA. I would guess that if you mapped out all of the teams over the years, that the result would look very similar to the hitters one in the article. There would be a slight decrease in ERA with more strikeouts, but not nearly as drastic as the individual breakdown in the article.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Can anyone explain how the Rays were 2nd in ERA but 30th in strikeouts? I find that amazing.

 

EDIT: I read that wrong. Now it makes sense. They were 30th in ERA, but 2nd in K's. That's still quite interesting though.

[joepepsi]

K/9and BB/9 are important, but I'm just as partial to K:BB ratio. K:BB ratio highlights pitchers like Maddux and Moyer and sinker types that may not get a hug number of K's but are quite successful for a long time. Maddux averages around 6K/9IP, but his K:BB ratio is an excellent 3.4:1.

 

I prefer using K/9 and BB/9 rather than K:BB because those raw numbers tell you more than a simple ratio. I can't tell the difference between two guys who have a 3:1 K:BB simply by looking at that number. But I can tell the different between a 9K/3BB and a 4.5K/1.5BB guy.

You are right. K:BB leaves out some info. You can get the same understanding by looking at both K/9ip and BB/9ip for a pitcher. K:BB can conveniently show how a certain "low" strikeout guy can still be very successful.

[TooLiveBrew]

This is the same pitcher that everyone said was useless last year pretty much.

 

This was being spewed just earlier in this season, too. Glad to see Bush's luck has been more good than bad of late. He's a great example of how luck-based stats affect both the fans' perception of & the actual effectiveness of a pitcher.

 

 

[Tampa was] 30th in ERA, but 2nd in K's.

 

Shoddy team defense leads to higher ERA -- good defense is why the Cubs' pitchers have better/good ERAs. I didn't watch more than one or two Rays games last season, so I can't testify to their defensive ability in 2007... sorry. I agree though, that kind of split is a head-scratcher.

[Ennder]

Can anyone explain how the Rays were 2nd in ERA but 30th in strikeouts? I find that amazing.

 

EDIT: I read that wrong. Now it makes sense. They were 30th in ERA, but 2nd in K's. That's still quite interesting though.

 

They were the worst defensive team in baseball last year is a big part of it. Bush is the definition of a luck based pitcher. He gives up a ton of extra base hits, his GB% isn't amazingly high, he doesn't K a lot of players so he puts a lot of balls in play. His ERA is going to jump all over the place just from normal variance no matter how well he is pitching.

 

Marginal pitchers are always going to vary more than 'studs' based on luck, defense etc. It is all a matter of how many players you put on base and how many extra base hits(fly balls) you get in general. The more of each the more variation you'll have in your stats.

[Fatter than Joey]

This was being spewed just earlier in this season, too.

 

Bush got sent down to Nashville -- it's not as if the "spew" didn't have some merit.

[mothershipconnection]

This was being spewed just earlier in this season, too.

 

I'll still spew it. Bush is like a cheating spouse who'll be wonderful to make it up to you, but just ends up going back to break your heart every time. Not this time Dave, I'm taking the kids and going to stay with my mother.

[TooLiveBrew]

What I specifically referred to was people calling Dave Bush 'useless'. That's a silly statement, and clearly not even close to being accurate. Just because he had some bad luck early on this season did not change my opinion of him, just as the good/better luck he's had of late hasn't. Imho he's a solid #4 SP type on any contending team.

 

Making definitive statements about a player that just aren't true don't add anything to discussion imo. Yes, a player can be frustrating & certainly make ya boil, but the 'sky is falling' stuff about Bush earlier in the season certainly looks pretty odd right now (& to me every bit as odd as it did at the time people were saying it). Bush is what he is... an average to above-average SP.

[endaround]

This was being spewed just earlier in this season, too.

 

Bush got sent down to Nashville -- it's not as if the "spew" didn't have some merit.

Yes the stupid spewing also came from the Brewers.

[Fatter than Joey]

What I specifically referred to was people calling Dave Bush 'useless'. That's a silly statement, and clearly not even close to being accurate.

 

Of course I agree, however this sort of thing happens all the time to just about every player on the Brewers over the course of the year. I'm not sure it is worth pointing out.

 

Just because he had some bad luck early on this season did not change my opinion of him, just as the good/better luck he's had of late hasn't.

 

You lose me here though -- While Bush may have had bad luck in April/May -- he definitely was pitching worse than he is now. If you look at his gamelogs, I think it is absolutely fair to conclude he was pitching below his expectations and abilities. I think Bush pitched poor (relative to himself) in April, and to his credit, has pulled it together quite well down the stretch. I'd rather criticize him for April and praise him for a blistering July/Aug (again relative to himself -- 28/1 KK/B in July -- wowza!). Certainly there are the bad/good starts dictated by luck sprinkled in here and there, but I don't think Bush has pitched uniform this season from start to finish.

 

Making definitive statements about a player that just aren't true don't add anything to discussion imo.

 

I find the argument that Bush was a primarily a victim of bad luck in April lacking veracity as well.

 

the 'sky is falling' stuff about Bush earlier in the season certainly looks pretty odd right now (& to me every bit as odd as it did at the time people were saying it)

 

At that time we also had a healthy Yo in our rotation which I think made Bush's position in the rotation seem a little less certain. When Yo is in the rotation, I think fans are going to have a little more bravado and be less patient with a guy like Bush (or Suppan) who is probably going to have more bad starts than Yo -- I'm not saying it's right -- but I understand fans having a newfound appreciation for the back end rotation guys when a guy like Yo is lost for the year.

 

Yes the stupid spewing also came from the Brewers.

 

I agree -- and far be it for me to criticize Ned and Doug, but sending Bush to AAA, and skipping his starts due to some crazy home/road splits isn't going to help the fans appreciate Bush for what he is. -- TLB says: "Bush is what he is... an average to above-average SP." -- Average to above-average SPs do not get sent to AAA, nor do they get bumped from the rotation in favor of guys like McClung. Again, I am not saying it is right, but when fans see a pitcher getting sent to AAA, or losing a spot to McClung I can understand how they can hastily conclude that Bush sucks. As a pro-management guy, I tend to give Doug and Ned the benefit of the doubt when they make roster moves, they certainly wouldn't demote Bush or mcclung him without good reason, -- right??

[logan82]

I seem to remember one of the things being thrown out was that "Bush can only go 5 innings." Which was of course not true at all. He went deeper into games than "innings eater" Suppan. I also remember people talking about Bush's good periferals not matching his actual results.

[TooLiveBrew]

Average to above-average SPs do not get sent to AAA

 

This is right in line with, 'Playoff teams don't do ___'. Average to above-avg. players get demoted... it does happen, even if it's not the norm.

 

 

nor do they get bumped from the rotation in favor of guys like McClung.

 

'Winning teams don't ____' -- SP sure do when the manager plays an idiotic home/road split. Let's not mislead here... Bush wasn't bumped from the rotation, his manager went with a knuckleheaded plan. Dave was pitching ok (iirc) by the time that wacky 'platoon' notion seeped its way out of Ned's dome & onto the field. Fortunately, it was short-lived, and the correct pitcher (imo) stayed in the rotation.

 

 

I find the argument that Bush was a primarily a victim of bad luck in April lacking veracity as well.

 

Fair enough... I certainly don't claim he wasn't pitching poorly, or that bad luck was the only factor.

 

 

As a pro-management guy, I tend to give Doug and Ned the benefit of the doubt when they make roster moves, they certainly wouldn't demote Bush or mcclung him without good reason, -- right??

 

You're pro-management now? When did this happen? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif I'd like to think they wouldn't demote Bush or McClung without good reason... but this is the same organization that brought you such hits as --

 

Ryan Braun: He's got the tools to stick at 3B!

Starting Pitchers have different talent levels in different stadiums! ... &

Where's your favorite Brewer batting today? Well, what position is he going to play?!

[Fatter than Joey]

This is right in line with, 'Playoff teams don't do ___'. Average to above-avg. players get demoted... it does happen, even if it's not the norm.

 

Knock it off. -- When? (Outside of rookie or injury types) I'd like you to give me a few examples.

 

'Winning teams don't ____' -- SP sure do when the manager plays an idiotic home/road split.

 

Groan. Another silly fill in the blank thingy. Getting tired and overused. You really missed the point here I was trying to make. I was trying to show that the fan seeing Bush getting demoted to AAA, and/or McClung getting his starts, is something that is going to be read as Bush not being a good pitcher. There was a lot more happening that the overvaluing of ERA or W/L this year that wasn't helping Bush's case.

 

I guess I found your initial canned rant a little misguided. Yes, some people were spewing about Bush -- but the worst offenders were they guys who were sending him to AAA and mcclunging him. Once you have been mcclunged you have been branded for life.

 

That and I think Bush deserves some heat for pitching below his ability in April.

[PKBadger]

This is right in line with, 'Playoff teams don't do ___'. Average to above-avg. players get demoted... it does happen, even if it's not the norm.

 

Knock it off. -- When? (Outside of rookie or injury types) I'd like you to give me a few examples.

Brett Myers is the first guy I thought of.....you know what they always say, good things happen to good people!

 

(Not taking sides with FTJ or TLB, for the record. But it's true that established veterans do get sent down from time to time.)

[PeaveyFury]

Knock it off. -- When? (Outside of rookie or injury types) I'd like you to give me a few examples.

 

Dontrelle Willis, Tom Gorzelanny?

[mothershipconnection]

Dontrelle Willis, Tom Gorzelanny?

 

But Willis hasn't been average since 2006 and Gorzelanny has been horrific this year after finishing last year on a free fall and having a back problem earlier this year.

[Brian the Automator]

Jeff Francouer

[PeaveyFury]

But Willis hasn't been average since 2006 and Gorzelanny has been horrific this year after finishing last year on a free fall and having a back problem earlier this year.

 

Well, there has to be a reason for them being sent to AAA in the first place, as no competent team is going to demote and average to above average pitcher without something not going right.

[Fatter than Joey]

Well, there has to be a reason for them being sent to AAA in the first place, as no competent team is going to demote and average to above average pitcher without something not going right.

 

That was exactly my point

 

(Myers I thought was struggling transitioning from the closer role)

[brewjihad]

I don't really have a side on this, but the Blue Jays recently sent Shaun Marcum to AAA to work on his control. He was leading the AL in ERA when the Brewers faced him. He has a 3.60 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 135 Major League innings. It does happen.

[trwi7]

I don't really have a side on this, but the Blue Jays recently sent Shaun Marcum to AAA to work on his control. He was leading the AL in ERA when the Brewers faced him. He has a 3.60 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 135 Major League innings. It does happen.

I don't think the situations are the same. Marcum lead the AL in ERA, then was on the DL for a month I believe, came back and struggled with his control. Maybe they brought him back too soon. I don't know, but Bush was never injured or on the DL.

[Fatter than Joey]

Marcum was sent down after missing a month due to an elbow injury.

[brewjihad]

Marcum was sent down after missing a month due to an elbow injury.

 

...he did make seven starts between the elbow surgery and the demotion to AAA, just to clear up the situation, it's not like it's a rehab assignment. We can resume discussion about Dave Bush's peripherals any time now http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

[TooLiveBrew]

(Myers I thought was struggling transitioning from the closer role)

 

Myers was demoted this season as well. He has 23 MLB games to this point, and all 23 were starts. He, like Dave Bush, was demoted, and returned to pitch at or near his normal talent level. Both Myers & Bush are firmly in the 'avg to above avg' range by now, as they have been for the bulk of their careers.

 

 

Names not mentioned (that I could find):

 

CHC Rich Hill

ARZ Micah Owings

BOS Clay Buchholtz

STL Chris Duncan

LAA Ervin Santana ('07)

 

 

I guess I found your initial canned rant a little misguided.

 

Ok. I don't at all. It sucked to hear at the time (that Bush was garbage), and it has been proven extremely wrong.

[Fatter than Joey]

Bush had made 100 MLB starts before getting sent down.

 

Owings made 27 starts before this year.

Buccholz less than 5

Hill had 52

Santana had about 45

Chris Duncan is an outfielder.

 

The pitchers you mention are young pitchers and not established average to above average pitchers like Bush is.

 

Ok. I don't at all. It sucked to hear at the time (that Bush was garbage), and it has been proven extremely wrong.

 

Bush is certainly not garbage -- but just about every Brewer is going to be called garbage here at some point.

 

I certainly do not think Bush should have been sent to AAA or bumped for McClung -- even when he was pitching poorly in April.