Fill out '09 rotation with trades, not big FA deals

[DonMoney4Mgr]

Let's face it, as much as I like having CC and Sheets as a 1,2 punch, signing either of the two is highly unlikely and very risky for a market such as Milwaukee.

Why not work out some trades that would bring Roy Halladay and Matt Cain to Milwaukee. Halladay is signed for two more years with Toronto at about 15 per. Cain is signed through 11' for about 5 or 6 per.

Consider these facts in relation to the big picture. Prince Fielder has considerable value right now, LH power bat, MVP potential, under the teams control for a few more years. However, he has Boras as an agent and reportedly turned down 5yr/60 M., and he is a liability on defense. Trading him in the off season could be our best option.

With some of our young studs in Huntsville, several position players could be used as trade bait as well; Hardy, Weeks, Hall and Kendall if anyone is interested. Pitchers on the list could include; Bush, Suppan, or McClung. (I know, not much there)

In the end, the philosophy would be to go young and spend less on the position players, and have a formidable starting rotation.

Toronto may accept Fielder, Hall, Bush/or McClung, and a prospect (one of the catchers) for Halladay and Overbay. The Giants, on the other hand, have no offense. Hardy and Weeks might be enough to pry Cain away.

Rotation could look like this for the next two years; Halladay, Cain, Parra, Gallardo, Suppan/Jeffress
Lineup; Brantley CF, Gamel 3B, Braun RF, Overbay 1B, Hart LF, Escobar SS, Salome C, FA 2B

Right now we are an average offensive team statistically somewhere in the middle of the league. We have a lot of power, but lack balance and consistency. At least with a reduced payroll the team could add bats at mid season to fill in holes, and wouldn't have to give up as much as they would to get starting pitching.
Most likely, not all the prospects will pan out. But I think that approach would be closer to the Minnesota, Oakland model of "success for less".

Edit: Fixed title. - Toby

[JumpinMacFlash]

While I like the look of that lineup and rotation, you're really putting yourself at risk by banking your season on four rookie position players. While the rotation you're throwing out there looks very good on paper, Will the offense be consistent?

 

As far as the trades go, I'm not real sure why Toronto would want Hall. I'm guessing they'd want prospects more. I also wouldn't want to part with Hardy and Weeks both.

[dadofandrew]

I do think they are more likely to trade to fill gaps than sign FA's, with the exception of a SP...I would guess they'll go hard after a veteran who does not qualify as a Type A...a Derek Lowe type, or maybe a Brad Penny, either a guy without stellar numbers, or a guy who has been hurt.

 

I don't see Prince being moved either, he's around 'til after '11, and I do not see him worth any more with 3 years left than 2. There's no replacement knocking on the door, so I see little incentive.

[thebruce44]

Al,

 

Why do you think they will go after another back of the rotation starter. I know its been established that those pitchers have some value, but do we really want another Soup taking up $10 mil per when our young core gets into their arby years?

 

If they are going to add SPs, I hope it is for an ace or a future ace. Doug has constantly talked about "quality" for "quantity" and I think that is the stage we are at right now with the lineup and the rotation.

[dadofandrew]

I would not call them a back of the rotation starter at all, more like a solid SP who could break through and have a year like a #2 would. Lowe is outstanding this season, but I'm not sure if he'll be a Type A or not. Penny has been very good, but has been injured of late, so he'll be cheaper than his production alone would have you think.

 

Many people seem to think a #5 SP has like a 4 ERA, and nothing could be further from the truth. What did that Jeff Sackmann's study show...that most teams bottom 30 starts had a ERA of 5.75-6.50? Any SP who can put up a 5.50 ERA or less has value...obviously you don't want to pay them $5M, but you need a guy or two of that nature to be inexpensive depth...I'd say that's exactly what McClung has done. He was depth with potential, and he did very well, putting himself in a position to have a real shot at a rotation spot next year. You need at least a guy in the bullpen and/or 2-3 guys in the minors ready to step in that will outperform other teams 6th, 7th, and 8th SP's.

[endaround]

The only way Penny is a FA is if his arm is shot and LA thinks he can't pitch next season. Lowe is going to be 37 and can't pitch away from the Ravine.

[kramnoj]

Lowe is going to be 37 and can't pitch away from the Ravine.

 

It is true that Lowe will turn 37 next year, but it will be his age 36 season, as is commonly accepted in baseball. It is true that Lowe has been bad on the road this season, but that is an outlier among his career and his more recent season. Do you think 64 IP so far this season should be the determining factor in whether he should be signed as a 1 or 2 year stopgap?

[thebruce44]

We have been talking about uploading Soup on someone. I just don't see why we would want to add another similar contract to the rotation?

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

My guess is there is no one in the "core" (Weeks, Hardy, Prince, Hart & Braun) that is going anywhere. They will pursue extensions ala Braun or ride out the arby years. Bringing up 3-4 young guys to replace them will just put the Brewers in the spot they were in 2-3 years ago...a young lineup that is not quite ready for prime time. While there may be some future studs among those prospects, some will likely fail...it's tough to imagine that group as a hole will be better than the current core...and that core has yet to move into their prime.

 

They are more likely to trade prospects, maybe a package for a player with 2-3 years left on their contract. That could happen in season if the Brewers are in it and a few teams hit the "no mas" button.

 

Next years rotation should start with:

Yo

Parra

Soup (no one will take on that contract...he's not going anywhere)

Bush

McClung

 

That could keep us competitive if our run production goes up, but is probably not enough to win the division. The best case is we're equal to the pre-CC rotation if Yo can equal Sheets. I don't see any affordable FA (CC & Sheets will be priced out of our range) out there that will be worth the price. I would bet DM looks at 2-3 lower price "call options" to challenge for a spot, the way he worked with the bullpen after not signing Cordero. If he can find the 2008 version of Kyle Lohse, we could be in business. If all we get is the 2008 Jeff Weaver, we're likely around 500.

[Hate those Rodents]

I agree Socal. It won't be popular here, but now is a GREAT time to extend Weeks longterm. If management really thinks he is going to turn it on very soon, we could get him for something like 6 years and 25-30 mil I am guessing.

[dadofandrew]

Lowe has had a pair of poor outings this year, and both came on the road, his ERA drops 1.5 runs without those in there. Nothing long-term, just bad games. His HR numbers are almost even road and home the past 2 years, and he gave up many more at home a few years back.

 

I like Lowe because it often takes 3 hits to score. However, looking at his stats, there's no way he's not a Type A.

[endaround]

Lowe is going to be 37 and can't pitch away from the Ravine.

 

It is true that Lowe will turn 37 next year, but it will be his age 36 season, as is commonly accepted in baseball. It is true that Lowe has been bad on the road this season, but that is an outlier among his career and his more recent season. Do you think 64 IP so far this season should be the determining factor in whether he should be signed as a 1 or 2 year stopgap?

Now I see he's turning 36-June1, 1973 saw 1972 before, don't know which is right.

 

As to his splits, 2007 Home 3.51 Away 4.19

2006 Home 3.18 Away 4.13

[kramnoj]

As to his splits, 2007 Home 3.51 Away 4.19

2006 Home 3.18 Away 4.13

 

You previously said that Lowe can't pitch away from Ravine. Is it your belief that ERAs of 4.19 and 4.13 is representative of someone who can't pitch? You could have easily said that Lowe benefits from his home park and a Brewer fan shouldn't expect to see Lowe put up an ERA below 4 in a Brewers uniform.

 

I remember someone writing an article that before he signed that Lowe would benefit more than most from pitching for the Dodgers, and he has certainly done well there. I assume some team is going to be more desparate than the Brewers and offer more money and years than the Brewers will, but I think he would be worth a look-see.

[JohnBriggs12]

Lowe was a much better pitcher at home in Fenway when he was with Boston than he was on the road. His numbers in LA have nothing to do with the park in fact his splits are less dramatic than they were with Boston. The guy just pitches better when he sleeps in his own bed not unlike a lot of guys.

 

He's an extreme groundball guy (2.41 GO to AO) and provided his team can catch and throw (Weeks???), should be effective.

 

His age makes him attractive because it makes him more affordable in dollars and years. It will take 3 instead of 5 years to get him.

[dadofandrew]

It is possible they'll go after a Type A since they'll get 4 picks for Ben and CC. If they do, I'm all for Lowe.

[ILuvDaBush]

Honestly, if you look at what the ScRubs put out this year for a rotation to begin the year, it could be very comparable to our rotation next year.

 

Carlos Z.-Yo! Both are ace-quality pitchers.

 

Lilly-Soup Quality-Innings-Eaters.

 

Hill-Parra Young stud lefties. I would hope Parra won't suffer the sophomore jinx (though Hill has had control questions throughout the minors while Parra's pimple was always health)

 

Dumpster-McClung Relievers-turned-starters, though McClung would seem to have a more recent track record (though the Dumpster has obviously proven himself, thus far)

 

Marquis-Bush Frustratingly inconsistent, though give me the Bush every time.

 

And then you also have the ability to trade from our treasure chest of prospects for an ace, a la Harden. Our window is not shut after this year.

[yoshii8]

I'd like to see Sheets resigned if at all possible, espcecially if he would take a little less to stay here. I think a Sheets, Gallardo, Parra, Bush, and Suppan rotation is still very good.

 

If Sheets can't be resigned, I would like to make a deal for Greinke or Cain, but then we would probably have to give up Gamel of Escobar.

[Roscoe Chill]

I think Halladay could be had for Prince pretty much straight up. Why not?

 

Halladay

Gallardo

Parra

Suppan

Bush

 

That right there is pretty darn close to the rotation they have right now. And as far as not having a replacement for Fielder, why not Mat Gamel?

[Foofty]

I agree Socal. It won't be popular here, but now is a GREAT time to extend Weeks longterm. If management really thinks he is going to turn it on very soon, we could get him for something like 6 years and 25-30 mil I am guessing.

 

I almost threw up a little bit after reading that.

 

/shakes away the bad thoughts.

 

as onto the initial question, I think that we could put together a deal somehow for Cain. Cain/Yo/Par/Bush/FA ( not a McClunk fan ) sounds good to me.

[TheCrew07]

I do think they are more likely to trade to fill gaps than sign FA's, with the exception of a SP...I would guess they'll go hard after a veteran who does not qualify as a Type A...a Derek Lowe type, or maybe a Brad Penny, either a guy without stellar numbers, or a guy who has been hurt.

 

I don't see Prince being moved either, he's around 'til after '11, and I do not see him worth any more with 3 years left than 2. There's no replacement knocking on the door, so I see little incentive.

I'm not picking on Al here as he's not the only one who's posted about signing a FA SP... I don't think dropping 10mil/year on an aging vet is money well spent. I still feel trading for a young pitcher is the best course of action with all of the young bats in the system. I understood why they signed Suppan, they didn't have the ammunition to aquire even mediocre SP any other way, nor was there any pitching besides Yo in the system that was close to MLB ready (Parra was in the midst of injury issues). While we find ourselves in a similar place with the SP 2 years later as Jeffress is the closest top of the rotation starter the Brewers have in the system and Sheets/Sabathia departing, they have the flexibility of having surplus Bats that can be moved to help aquire a SP. Any FA SP the Brewers signed would likely be in the bottom half of the 25 man in terms of production/talent... I just have a hard time justifying paying someone in the bottom half of the talent pool the 2nd most money on the team. Suppan is already in that position, so I understand why people want to get rid of his contract so badly. In no particular order, these are the current Brewers who I think would be in the upper half of the talent pool.

 

Fielder

Hardy

Hart

Cameron

Braun

Kapler

Torres

Villy

Yo

Parra

Weeks (talent wise yes, production... well who knows? He gets the nod on talent)

Branyan/Hall Platoon (again as the roster stands today, if this becomes Gamel I have no doubt he's more talented and Hall still has more value as a super sub with good power. Even so the 3B would put up nice power numbers)

Kendell (I was on the fence a bit with him because of his offensive production, but with the likelyhood of a very young rotation and bullpen next year, his role will be key)

 

Basically the way I see it Suppan and FA SP would be in the 14-17 range depending on how well Villy and Bush perform... and again I just have a hard time justifying that kind of money for the relative talent level.

 

For next year we have Stetter, Dillard, DiFelice, Pena, Aguilar (will probably start in AAA), and Ryan(will probably start in AAA) as cheap bullpen options in the minors, Villy/McClung will still be ultra cheap, so the most money tied up in the pen will be in Torres and Riske. If we could get a Suppanesque SP for 1 or 2 years I'd be okay with it, but I don't see that as a realistic probability, anyone any good is likely going to get 3-4 years as per usual. Of the names tossed around I'm not interested in Burnette, looking at his stats and his career he's a much more expensive Dave Bush... to me he's one of the most overrated pitchers in Baseball. Dempster, no thanks, I'd rather the Cubs resign him for market value and be tied into his arm long term. I don't see aquiring any team's #1 pitcher as a realistic possibility, let alone a "name" pitcher like Halladay, I still think the best targets are the #3 type pitchers on deep pitching staffs like TB and LAA.... Shields and Santana are very solid #2's pitching in some very deep rotations. Those teams also have surplus pitching in the minors and can readily absorb the loss of said pitchers. I don't want to beat a dead horse, but I think the Crew would get the most bang for their buck making deals for established pitchers in deep rotations or unproven pitchers with upside.

 

I agree with Al that with LaPorta gone it's much tougher to trade Prince, unless you can get a MLB quality 1B back in the deal. Even though JJ is one of my favorite Brewers, packaging Hardy + for a younger SP makes more sense to me than eating up the budget by paying aging veteran pitchers market value. I really wish the Sabathia trade wouldn't have been necessary and we still had the pieces available to trade Fielder or make a prospect deal this offseason. There's no way to undo the past though, so any deal involving Fielder would have to net a serviceable 1B in return.

 

edit. Clarified my opinion some.

[dadofandrew]

Veteran SP's cost big money, no doubt. By the way, we have no idea if Torres will be back or not, he's a FA and has hinted at retirement as recent as June or July.

 

By the way, Scott Olsen of the Marlins is rumored to be available, as the Marlins look to keep payroll down. He's plenty young, and might be a reasonable fit, as FLA loves kids.

[Tbadder]

Gallardo

Bush

Parra

Suppan

McClung

 

I think the Brewers stand pat on the trade market. Well, not any thing big anyways. We may pick up some Soup-like veteran, but nothing that will really make a difference.

[dadofandrew]

They will add depth at least, but allow me to say many teams will go into camp with a worse rotation than those 5. Not a lot of ceiling, but all project at 4.50 (maybe 4.75) or less.

[sbrylski]

A little against the spirit of the thread, but I think the easiest and best solution is to get Sheets back in a four year deal. I don't care how much, just as long as its only 4 years or less.

 

If we are planning on seriously competing next season, I think we are an offseason too early to trade away our bats and expect the young AA guys to produce effectively in the bigs. The only real way to throw out a playoff calibur rotation would be to trade from the minors or retain Sheets. If we trade from the minors, we really risk killing our post-Fielder window. I don't think Sheets salary would hinder our future team's ability to compete nearly as much, even if he fails to meet expectations. We still have the pre-arby players regardless, plus Braun and maybe another guy inked long term, as an offensive core.

 

Extending Sheets instead of trading from the minors also means we can still trade guys like Hardy, Weeks, and Fielder the following offseason and have replacements in place. In 2010 we can target another top young arm, as well as possibly seeing Jeffress debut that season.

 

My action steps:

 

2009 - Resign Sheets to a 4 year / $100 million contract with a 5th year, $30 million option and a $5 million buyout; effectively a 4 year / $105 million contract

 

2B Weeks

SS Hardy

LF Braun

1B Fielder

RF Hart

CF Cameron

3B Hall

C Kendall

 

SP Sheets

SP Gallardo

SP Parra

SP Suppan

SP Bush

 

Prospect Debuts: Gamel, Escobar

 

2010 - Trade Fielder for a younger, quality starting pitcher

 

C ???/Salome/Rivera

1B ???/Gamel

2B Weeks/Hardy

3B Gamel/Hardy/Hall

SS Escobar

LF Braun/Gamel

CF Braun/Hart/Brantley/Cain/???

RF Hart/Braun/Gamel

 

SP Sheets

SP Gallardo

SP Fielder Trade

SP Parra

SP Suppan

 

Prospect Debuts: Salome, Brantley, Cain, Jeffress, Braddock

 

A lot of internal flexibility in 2010 and beyond even without financial flexibility due to a hefty Sheet commitment. Pitching-wise, we could have three sub-4.00 ERA starters in 2009 and four sub-4.00 ERA starters in 2010 with Parra being the wildcard. It'd be expected of Sheets, Gallardo, and the pitcher acquired in the Fielder trade.

[PeaveyFury]

By the way, we have no idea if Torres will be back or not, he's a FA and has hinted at retirement as recent as June or July.

 

The Brewers actually have an option on Torres, if I'm not mistaken.