What do we do next season? Durham or Weeks?

[Tbadder]

Durham just makes me cringe. His range is so shower-stall I can't see him as anything more than a second-stringer. I'll take Weeks and keep banging my head against the wall. With the lack of pitching next year we can afford to give Rickie another shot.

[Gobias Industries]

Then you guys need to take care to not make sloppy statements like the above -- Weeks is NOT hitting .335

I don't see what the problem with listing just OBP and SLG is. The number one goal of hitting is to get on-base, and whether you hit a clean single or the ball hits you right in the ribs, it all counts the same.

 

I just think the BA stat is completely irrelevant. A couple posts above (Cameron and Hart's stats) is a perfect example of that.

[Darnell Junior]

Going and finding a better option than Weeks is a very possible option, but Durham isn't a better option than Weeks this year or next year. Not offensively, defensively, or financially. I understand the arguments against "cherry-picking" stats. However, why ask for a replacement when the man has in fact been playing well for about three months now? This is about what we think he will do in the future, not what he did in April and May. Based on his age and recent improvements, I'd say it's more likely that he improves on his numbers right now, this season and next, than regresses.

[jackalope02ca]

The easy answer to the question is neither.

 

If Hardy is not able to slide over to allow Escobar to play I think we need to target whatever happens to be available on the trade market. Then if it's possible we trade Weeks although I don't think there will be much of a market for him. I hope I'm wrong but if we move Weeks there will likely be outrage on this board for how little we actually get back for him. But I'm not sure what other choice we have.

[ELCABALLO45]

Then you guys need to take care to not make sloppy statements like the above -- Weeks is NOT hitting .335

I don't see what the problem with listing just OBP and SLG is. The number one goal of hitting is to get on-base, and whether you hit a clean single or the ball hits you right in the ribs, it all counts the same.

 

I just think the BA stat is completely irrelevant. A couple posts above (Cameron and Hart's stats) is a perfect example of that.

I understand how people can say that BA is overrated, but completly irrelevant? Come on now.

[Postseason2006]

Those Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs guys really stunk.

[lcbj68c]

I'm not arguing the merits of BA and OBP as much as I can't really believe that a hit and a HBP are exactly the same thing. Runner on 2nd outs, I want my player to get a hit, not draw a walk. The higher the AVG, the more it shows that he is getting a hit. Hits tend to advance runners farther than walks and HBP, so I think that AVG therefore has some merit.

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't see what the problem with listing just OBP and SLG is. The number one goal of hitting is to get on-base, and whether you hit a clean single or the ball hits you right in the ribs, it all counts the same.

 

Of course this is far from true... but here are some numbers...

 

1997 OBP RC

 

Player A -- .409 132

Player B -- .409 86

Player C -- .409 107

 

Which guy would you rather have on your team? I'd take player A.

 

Player A hit .372 -- Player B hit .333 -- Player C hit .316.

 

You are definitely not getting the full picture if you are ignoring BA.

 

Taking it a step further --

 

Player D -- OPS .996 .411 OPB RC 115 BW 4.1

Player A -- OPS .957 .409 OPB RC 132 BW 4.8

 

Player A, had a lower OPS, but generated more runs, because his OBP was BA heavy compared to Player D who batted .295 but drew 98 BBs.

 

BA is not the end all be all but it is worthwhile data.

[logan82]

lcbj68c wrote:

Runner on 2nd outs, I want my player to get a hit, not draw a walk.

There tend to be fewer of those opportunities for the leadoff guy than other places in the lineup so Weeks leading off is a good spot for his large BA/OBP split.

[yount19.u]

Not to mention that a higher batting average means a player is putting the bat on the ball more. Low batting averages usually correlate with higher strike out rates. A strike out never helps the team, but putting the ball in play for an out can still help the team via the sacrifice, reaching on an error or advancing runners. Batting average is, and has always been, relevant. OPS is just an improved way to evaluate a players offense based partly off of the batting average.

[homer]

Hitting into a doule play is worse than a K.

 

Just sayin.....

[yount19.u]

Hitting into a doule play is worse than a K.

 

Just sayin.....

Touche.

[2hoophead]

I am sick and tired of people saying: He's expected... He's predicted to... He's got so much upside...

 

Year 1: He's a rookie... ok, sure, given.

Year 2: Sophmore slump... just another excuse for under producing.

Year 3: AVG/OBP Production is horrible for his spot, but defense improved a bit.

 

IMO three strikes ( which he seems to do alot ) and your out.

 

Durahm is over the hill. I believe his perfomance since joining the Brewers is based off of adrenaline becuase he's actually on a team that gives a crap and has hopes for the post season.

 

I would like to see Escobar move from SS to 2b and lead off in 09, trade Ricky for CASH & try to sign CC ( will be tough, but I think its doable ), Drop Camerons 10M option, Corey to CF, Gamel to RF, and Riverakendal catching duo 60/40.

 

sorry, just pissed of all the let downs RW has given us over the past years...

Holy crap! I thought my idea of two position moves was pushing the envelope but you got me beat my one, Footy!

[Foofty]

I am just a fan, nowhere near a manager type who thinks with the realities of money, contracts, etc..... just a fan who is sick of RW lack of production, the man has more excuses than a cheating husband!

 

about the 3 swaps...

 

Corey has good speed an could cover the CF, he might have to improve on his "back to the wall" Def as most CF's make plays like that than corner OF.

 

Escobar could move to 2b if he puts his mind to it. I have seen quite a few MLB SS move to the left corner and still produce good D, not too many go to the other side of the diamond though, could be risky at first, but I think its possible

 

and the Gammel to RF, I am probably wrong, but I thought he was skilled at 3B/Corner OF. oh well like I said, just a fan.

[endaround]

I think people are really overestimating Escobar's bat. He isn't a #1 hitter, he'd be a bad #8 for at least his first year. If you want Escobar in Milwaukee, you trade Hardy not move him.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

With respect to AVG and it's place as a slash stat in AVG / OBP / SLG, there are a couple reasons why it is useful to include it. Take two hypothetical hitters with equal OPSes:

Hitter A: 350 / 400 / 500
Hitter B: 250 / 400 / 500

If you ask me which of these two hitters I would rather have had (past tense) for the time these numbers were accumulated, I'd rather have had Hitter A. Hitter B is getting some more extra base hits, but that's not enough to offset the additional runner advancement value all Hitter A's extra singles have over all of Hitter B's walks. This is a rather narrow difference though, as almost all of a guy's real offensive value is captured by OBP and SLG. If both of these lines were posted over 600 PA, the difference would be less than 10 runs (measured by linear weights).

If you ask me which of these two hitters I would rather have going forward (present and future tense), I'd rather have Hitter B, and it's not remotely close. Assuming this is all the information available for making the choice, you have to recognize that AVG is a lot less stable than IsoP (isolated power = SLG - AVG) and walk rate. Therefore, in making any kind of sensible estimate of true talent hitting ability (or any projection for future performance), you would regress AVG further toward the mean than the other rates, which will leave Hitter B as obviously the better hitter. The difference might look something like:

Hitter A (true talent; future projection): 310 / 370 / 460
Hitter B (true talent; future projection): 260 / 390 / 490

That's a total guesstimate, but this shows one of the reasons why statheads around here are generally more Weeks-friendly than others. A low AVG is a sign you were somewhat less valuable than your OPS suggests in the past, but it is also simultaneously a sign that you are likely to post substantially higher OPSes in the future.

A lot of other folks around here seem to think that Weeks will just continue to hit .230 forever.

[strawbossisevil]

I think next season will be a bit of a rebuilding year, as I don't think we'll be in the thick of things without Sheets or CC. So we might as well evaluate what we have next season, and see what we've got to work with for another run in 2010.

 

We have another wave coming in probably in September of 2009: Escobar, Brantley, Gamel, Jeffress, Salome, and potentially Gillespie (probably as a backup).

 

I see our lineup next year being rather similar to this season:

 

1. Weeks (2nd)

2. Hardy (SS)

3. Braun (LF)

4. Fielder (1st)

5. Hart (RF)

6. Branyan/Hall (3B)

7. Cameron (CF)

8. Rivera/Kendall ©

 

SPs:

1. Gallardo

2. Burnett (3 years 10 million per)

3. Parra

4. Bush

5. Suppan

Wild Cards: Capuano (mid-year), McClung, DeFelice

 

Then in 2010:

1. Brantley(CF)

2. Hardy (SS)

3. Braun (LF)

4. Fielder (1B)

5. Hart (RF)

6. Gamel (3B)

7. Salome/Rivera ©

8. Escobar (2nd)

 

SPs:

1. Gallardo

2. Jeffress

3. Burnett

4. Parra

5. Bush

[endaround]

Burnett isn't going to sign a 3yr/$30m deal, he's guaranteed $24m over the next 2 years as it is.

[RightFieldCoder]

I started messing with the numbers of Hitter A and Hitter B. I let both hitters have the same amount of HRs over 600 PA (since HR are the best possible outcome). The difference in the numbers will be Hitter B having 111 less singles, but 74 more BBs and 37 more 2Bs. So 1/3 of those missing singles turn into doubles. I don't have enough time at work to run the numbers of this result, but my eyeball doesn't think there would be a drastic difference in the overall effect of these two hitters in the lineup. The amount of times the BB fails to score a runner is offset by the increased offense of the double. If a Hitter uses the better BA to increase performance over another player, it will show up in the SLG stat.

 

Here are the numbers I came up with:

PA outs 1B 2B HR BB BA OBP SLG

Hitter A 600 360 151 23 20 46 .350 .400 .500

Hitter B 600 360 40 60 20 120 .250 .400 .500

 

 

I think we keep Weeks. He is still young in baseball terms, shows flashes of greatness, and still projects to be very good. It's true that he's been in the Majors for a while. But if the Brewers hadn't been bad for that long of a period and needed to call guys up, this would probably be RW's first or second year in the league. He's still several years away from Ryan Howard's rookie year age. And do you remember how bad Hall was the first couple of years when he was brought up too early?

[joepepsi]

I agree there will be some rebuilding aspect to the team next year. But there's no way Bill Hall is anything more than a super sub/Counsell type next year. Assuming he's even on the team.

[strawbossisevil]

My bad, meant to type 40, not 30. :-P

[dvoiss]

I don't see why so many people want to take the team's best defensive infielder (Hardy) and move him to a weaker defensive position. Right now he is the only regular infielder who is actally a good defensive ballplayer, IMO. If you want to bring up Escobar then move him to 2nd. I'm fine with that. But leave JJ alone. Otherwise you weaken the hardest defensive position on the infield which makes no sense to me. Don't know much about Escobar's defense but doubt he is better than JJ.

[endaround]

Hardy is an average at best SS. Escobar is great. I just see no way they are in Milwaukee starting at the same time. You don't move Hardy, you trade him for an offensively similar (or projected to be similar) 3B or 2B. Moving Hardy reduces his value for very little reason except just to keep him in Milwaukee.

[Postseason2006]

Escobar is great? And how do we know this?

[TooLiveBrew]

Because that's the report from everyone that watches him play