Yost's comments on "Aggressive Baserunning" and "Sacrificing Baserunners"

[Fatter than Joey]

Once again, this is just another case of Yost defending his players. I'm sure he was angry at Hardy for making the out, he just doesn't like to rip his players in the media so he lies.

 

You have no idea what you typed is true or not. Furthermore Sveum sent Hardy.

 

I also put some guidelines in the initial post to hopefully skirt the Yost arguing. All I wanted to do is debate/discuss the words that came out of his mouth.

 

Hardy trying to take 3rd there didn't make too much sense, and ending innings early for one run needs to be stopped.

 

This sort of opinion is what I was looking for -- along with some numbers (thanks Russ!)

[Bucky Rules]

This is a trend that I've noticed more this year than in past years. I don't know if it's a function of Sveum being back at 3rd base or some other factor. But, it drives me crazy. In general (and always in the 1st inning - unless maybe if the pitcher is coming up next), you shouldn't sacrifice outs for a single run to score. That is especially true when it won't even take a hit to score that run in subsequent ABs. Beyond the whole run expectency numbers (which are great - thanks rluz), it doesn't even pass the sniff test. If it's going to take the sacrificing of an out to get him home, then hold him at 3rd. There were no outs.

If this is truly Yost's philosophy, then he needs to re-examine it. It's possible that he's just protecting his guy (in this case Sveum) again by saying he did the right thing (similar to saying Soup pitched great, Gagne had great stuff, etc). But, it has happened on several occasions. It needs to be corrected, and while I could care less if he admits it or addresses it as a mistake, I hope he recognizes that it is one and does something about it.

[rluzinski]

Legacy provided the initial numbers, when he estimated how often Hardy would have to be safe to justy Svuem sending him. I did the same thing but realized that since a throw to 3B results in an out almost every time, Svuem needs to know how often a catcher is going to that route.

 

Basically, Svuem picked the worst situation to try and take that extra base. It was a 0-0, 1st inning game, so that run at home had no extra value towards winning. In contrst, in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th, you'd always send the runner. Furthermore, there were no outs and the heart of the order was coming up, so the out was more costly and the baserunner more valuable.

 

It seems like most ML catchers know this but Svuem and Yost doesn't.

[endaround]

Russ, it wasn't the catcher, it was the 2B who took the relay and just threw to 3B without even looking home--so middle infielders know this.

[rluzinski]

Isn't it the catcher who generally yells for the cut?

[Fatter than Joey]

it is

[olliegjw]

Didn't a similar thing happen in the Brewer game yesterday? Astros had 1st and 2nd, 2 out. Base hit to left, runner from 1st stays at 2nd as runner gets thrown out at home. Had the runner continued to 3rd, would the Brewers have taken the near guaranteed out at 3rd, or let the throw go through to stop the run from scoring?

 

Also, to a previous post, the catcher calls out all cuts and relays from the outfield on throws that are going home.

[rluzinski]

Without running the numbers, the fundamental difference there was that there were already 2 outs and the play at home was the tying run in the 5th. Not saying it was the right or wrong move, though.

[Fatter than Joey]

Of course if that runner at third makes an out before the run scores it doesn't count either.

[olliegjw]

Of course if that runner at third makes an out before the run scores it doesn't count either.

That is why they get into rundowns if it is going to be close. The runner going to 3rd can see the other runner, and the play in front of them.

[Fatter than Joey]

That is why they get into rundowns if it is going to be close.

 

Right. However it is still a risk that they will get tagged out before that run scores.

 

I guess I'd rather keep that runner at 2nd with 2 outs than end the inning.

 

I think the chances are really low that a defense is going to cut that throw if they have a good chance to get that run at the plate -- (in a late inning tie game e.g.)

 

If the catcher calls for the cut because they have a 10% chance to get the runner at home and the guy at 2nd is heading to 3rd -- I guess I'd rather keep that guy at 2nd as a potential insurance run, than end the inning to hedge a 90% bet.

 

As others have pointed out -- it probably is not reasonable for a baserunner to: calculate the speed of the other runner/arm of the OF/accuracy of the throw while he is running bases.