Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

[GenoSeligPrieb]

To me, this Oswalt recruitment holds water. Sheets is from Louisiana, and as it often is, regardless of how "on the rise" the Brewers are, potential free agents tend not to stay here. OK, Sheets did re-sign once, but I wouldn't bet on him returning. Besides, I think we're already playing with house money with Ben this year, in terms of another injury, so I expect him to leave, and that's OK.

 

If CC also leaves, there ARE options, and we'd have tons of cash to throw at 2 rotation slots.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors...7/12/2009-mlb-free-a.html

 

John Lachkey's contract's expiring. So are Ryan Dempster's and AJ Burnett's. And if YoGa comes back close to what he had been, if we land 1 or 2 of these free agents, or just wait for The Great Billy Beane to have another pre-emptive fire sale, I'm not afraid.....but I REALLY do want CC to stay. If he does, with YoGa, we're OK.

[yoshii8]

Why would the LAA not pick up Lackey's option? He is one of the best starters in the league.

[Thurston Fluff]

No, the point is to maximize the collevtive talent on the field within a certain budget. I have no doubt that the difference between Suppan and McClung's talents in terms of $ is less than $10 mil.

 

But to maximize the ability to win sometimes one must overpay a certain person of need vs just sign a bunch of cheaper guys who are collectively better than the one. Suppan was worth the money because,at the time, they needed a reliable veteran pitcher in their rotation. So while McClung would be the better value he may not be the better answer to accomplish their goal. Oakland made some very astute moves relative to talent and cost but hurt themselves relative to their playoff chances this year.

[rluzinski]

But to maximize the ability to win sometimes one must overpay a certain person of need vs just sign a bunch of cheaper guys who are collectively better than the one.

 

If, for the same price, 5 players adds 5 wins over what you currently have and one player adds 4, you get the 4 players. That's all I'm saying.

 

This probably needs its own thread but...

 

Suppan was worth the money because,at the time, they needed a reliable veteran pitcher in their rotation.

 

Reliable veteran? His 4.62 ERA last year was reliable?

 

Suppan was signed because Melvin and/or Mark A. got caught up in a bunch of baseball cliches and thought Suppan was better than he really was. Suppan has a 4.6 ERA in his first 2 years of his contract. I'm surprised you or anyone else would still be willing to say he was a good signing. If he's still a Brewer in 2010, he probably won't be in the rotation. Of course, that is what many of us predicted when he was signed.

[valpocrewsader]

Suppan was worth the money because,at the time, they needed a reliable veteran pitcher in their rotation.

 

Reliable veteran? His 4.62 ERA last year was reliable?

He was signed following a year the Brewers filled rotation spots 25 times with the likes of De La Rosa, Ben Hendrickson, Zach Jackson, Dana Eveland, Rick Helling, Villy, and Geremi Gonzalez (no-wammy-no-wammy-stop). On balance, those starts were pretty awful and cost the 2006 team badly. Nothing wrong with getting 6 IP @ 3 ER consistently to replace that awful production ... from a guy you could pretty much count on not to get hurt. "Suppan is one of only 7 ballplayers who pitched in the NL in 2007 who won at least 12 games in each year from 2004-07, the others being Carlos Zambrano, Greg Maddux, Roy Oswalt, Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, and Jason Marquis." (wikipedia) We all know Suppan isn't great, but isn't he almost the definition of SP reliability?

[Never Outhustled]

Reliable veteran? His 4.62 ERA last year was reliable?

Come on Russ, your way to smart to not realize how misleading ERA can be. His ERA would have been dramatically different if he wouldn't have had the worst defensive team in baseball playing behind and catching him.

 

 

There's a dollar figure for the marginal revenue of each additional thousand tickets sold, but I can never remember what it is.

IIRC, its $2 million in revenue per every 100,000 in attendence. There is very limited tickets available for the remainder of the games, the team will be over 3.2 million in attendence.

[kramnoj]

Reliable veteran? His 4.62 ERA last year was reliable?

 

His career ERA is 4.6. What else would you call a 4.62 ERA from that pitcher, but reliable, to go along with his 200+ IP. He did the job they paid him to do. His ERA+ was 97, a little lower than his career, but close enough to not be a big deal.

 

I'm surprised you or anyone else would still be willing to say he was a good signing.

 

Did the Brewers have someone better than him to be a SP last year? Could they have signed someone else to be able to be a pitcher that has been as consistently average and durable as Suppan by spending less money? Suppan last year contributed to the team's first winning season in 15 years. That meant a lot at the turnstiles last year and it buillt toward the popularity of this team.

 

Suppan is still in the discussion for being in the top 5 SP this year and will presumably be one of the top 5 SP next year. It's possible, maybe even likely that he won't be in 2010, but the Brewers will have benefited from his success before then.

 

Suppan's Wins Added compared to dollars spent won't be good, but they wanted to solidify the rotation, and he achieved that. The Brewers were obviously in a place to overspend because they got such good production from their young position players.

[Ennder]

I didn't mind the Suppan deal though I don't like how backloaded it was so we can't trade him. What his signing did was give us a little stability in a rotation that really didn't have any and allow us to not rush Gallardo/Parra and not be quite as worried about Sheets staying healthy. So far Suppan has been worth what we payed him and if we don't re-sign Sheets or Sabathia I'll be glad we have him next year too even if he is overpaid these next couple years.

[rluzinski]

I used ERA because that's what everyone seems to care about. And it "should" have been around 4.4 last year (IIRC) and should be around maybe 4.75 this year, so it looks pretty representative over the last 2. I'm not trying to suggest that a 4.6 ERA starting pitcher doesn't have value, especially one that's proven to be durable. My concern is that sometime soon, its reasonable to assume that Suppan will slip from barely average to decidedly below average. When that happens, his IP totals start to become largely irrelevent.

 

And yes, if you don't care about the last 2 years of his contract, I can see someone arguing that the signing wasn't bad. If it had been a 2 year deal, you wouldn't have ever heard any objections from me. That's because my objections to the signing had everything to do with the last 2 years. If someone wants to argue that because of the cirumstances of the team at the time of his sighing, he's already earned his money, there's no sense in arguing further. That kind of thinking results in big troubles down the road, IMO.

[joepepsi]

I think you are underestimating the value of a league average pitcher who makes 32-34 starts a year and pitches 190+ innings. You are selling Doug and Mark short if you think they only saw Suppan through baseball cliches. Ted Lilly signed with the Cubs for almost identical terms at the same time. 4 years/$40 million. Their career numbers to that point were similar. Also, you are not considering that signing Suppan sent a clear message the Brewers intended to be "players" in MLB from now on. Just changing the image of the organization had to factor in being able to sign Cameron, Kendall, and Gagne.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think you are underestimating the value of a league average pitcher who makes 32-34 starts a year and pitches 190+ innings

 

He's pointing out that in the not too distant future, Soup is no longer going to be a pitcher you want working that much.

 

 

Also, you are not considering that signing Suppan sent a clear message the Brewers intended to be "players" in MLB from now on. Just changing the image of the organization had to factor in being able to sign Cameron, Kendall, and Gagne.

 

I could not disagree more. The talent in the organization that put this team in a competitive position enabled this, not signing Suppan. Sure, to us fans it may have felt that way, but I just adamantly believe this isn't the case.

[joepepsi]

I think you are underestimating the value of a league average pitcher who makes 32-34 starts a year and pitches 190+ innings

 

He's pointing out that in the not too distant future, Soup is no longer going to be a pitcher you want working that much.

 

 

Also, you are not considering that signing Suppan sent a clear message the Brewers intended to be "players" in MLB from now on. Just changing the image of the organization had to factor in being able to sign Cameron, Kendall, and Gagne.

 

I could not disagree more. The talent in the organization that put this team in a competitive position enabled this, not signing Suppan. Sure, to us fans it may have felt that way, but I just adamantly believe this isn't the case.

Suppan had 15 QS last year. He has 13 in 25 starts this year. I'm uncomfortable being a Suppan apologist, but I don't see any trend that he is worsening. In fact, he may be the most consistently average pitcher in baseball. You can argue he is paid too much for what he delivers, but the truth is he's not that overpriced compared to similar players in his market niche. (Washburn, Lilly, Silva, all are similar aged with similar contracts.)

 

That the key talent and center of the team is young and under fiscal control enables the Brewers to throw cash at average veterans to fill holes. Signing Suppan served as notice to fans and MLB players the team was willing to add experienced veterans to fill holes rather than continue with recent patterns of auditioning NRIs and replacement level players.

[rluzinski]

Only time will tell how Suppan actually performs over the next two years, so we'll just see how that plays out. He's on the wrong side of the age curve, though, so it's not a good idea to extrapolate out his current performance forever.

 

Yes, the fans loved the Suppan signing but fans are fickle and most don't even seem to like him anymore. In the end, winning is going to make the bigger statement than picking up free agents, so baseball decisions sould be made with that in mind, IMO.

 

As for players.... I'll just say that I think the contracts that they were offered were pretty darn competitive. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TheCrew07]

That the key talent and center of the team is young and under fiscal control enables the Brewers to throw cash at average veterans to fill holes. Signing Suppan served as notice to fans and MLB players the team was willing to add experienced veterans to fill holes rather than continue with recent patterns of auditioning NRIs and replacement level players.

The "key" talent isn't all locked up, unless you consider Braun the only "core" player on the roster. I don't want to get into another circular debate about roster management and payroll but signing aging vets to bloated contracts is the fastest way to shorten the window. If we're talking 1 or 2 year contracts I'm down, I have no problem with temporary solutions that allow youngsters to progress at their own pace. If we're talking 3-4 years... no way do I want to be locked into aging pitcher for 4 or more years.

 

The Suppan deal made sense at the time because Yo was the only young pitcher that was producing and healthy, the organization had no ammunition to swing a deal for a young arm or the money to sign a high profile FA, and the internal options from the previous year were not very appealling. The club is in a much different position at this time, the first wave has completely arrived, the second wave is knocking on the door, and the club has mutiple options they can utilize to fill out the roster.

 

If it comes down to spending the money on a SP or RP, then I guess I'd settle for the SP... because the only thing I hate more than paying aging SPs market value is paying a bullpen arm market value for 80 innings a year.

[logan82]

I think the fact that if we were talking about the starting rotation right now we would probably be arguing whether Suppan, McClung or Villanueva should be our 5th starter should be some indication on how overpaid Suppan is. I know he went for the going rate for starting pitchers on the free agent market, but I think it is a good example of how little you get for your money in free agency. You are paying a ton of money and alot of years for a guy who is likely to be getting worse as the contract gets bigger. I think we should look at Suppan's contract and take it as a warning of what to expect with Sheets if we were to give him a big contract. We would probably be pretty happy for the first couple years, but after that I would expect him to get closer to league average with a huge contract.

 

Suppan has single handedly killed the phrase "innings eater" for me. I used to think it was more than just a nice thing to say about a player when you didn't have anything better to say.

[joepepsi]

If they can fill spots 1-4 with pitchers better than Suppan the next two years then this stands to be a very good ballclub. Even in Soup is the no. 5 guy.

The "key" talent isn't all locked up, unless you consider Braun the only "core" player on the roster.

As is the case with every major league player the Brewers hold rights on Fielder, Yo, Parra, Braun, Hart, Weeks, Hardy, Hall for 6 years, regardless if they are on one year or multiple year deals. At the time Suppan was signed these guys looked like the core and future of the team, except for possibly Braun, Yo, and Parr who were still in the minors. Most still do. At any rate, entering the 2007 season, Suppan's first, all these guys were at the mercy of the organizations for several more seasons. That's what I mean about the core players being locked.

[endaround]

The Brewers likely could fill spots 1-5 with better pitchers. Suppan was decent last year. This year he's been bad. His FIP last year was 4.42, distinctly average. This year its 5.15, 5th starter bad. And he's not likely to get better. If the Brewers can trade him no problem, it becomes an ok signing. If they can't he becomes an anchor. And no, Sheets signing a contract is not like Suppan signing a contract. Suppan career FIP is 4.76, Sheets' is 3.54.

[PeaveyFury]

His FIP last year was 4.42, distinctly average.

 

4.30, actually:

 

http://www.hardballtimes....rs/index.php?playerId=633

[trwi7]

His FIP last year was 4.42, distinctly average.

 

4.30, actually:

 

http://www.hardballtimes....rs/index.php?playerId=633

I'm seeing 4.42 last year, 5.13 this year and 4.75 for his career.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...ayerid=633&position=P

[PeaveyFury]

I'm seeing 4.42 last year, 5.13 this year and 4.75 for his career.

 

Hmm, there definitely is a discrepancy between THT and fangraphs.

[logan82]

endaround wrote:

And no, Sheets signing a contract is not like Suppan signing a contract. Suppan career FIP is 4.76, Sheets' is 3.54.

If you are trying to say that Sheets is a better pitcher I would agree. He isn't as likley to be out of the starting rotation in 3-4 years like Suppan. Not that Suppan will be out of the starting rotation, but it will probably be argued he should be. I think it is similar because we are talking about a 30+ year old pitcher who is likley to get worse. The big question is when and how much. If it was a 3 year contract I have no problem. When we start getting into 4+ year at $19+ per in the 3rd and 4th years(20%+ of our annual payroll) I don't think it is worth it.

[JenksFan5]

I have avoided participating in this thread because I am in the pro-Sheets camp and it seems that no matter how much the topic is discussed there is no swaying anyone's set opinion, but I guess I will finally jump in. It is funny how perception becomes reality and people will jump to the conclusion that "Sheets is not a big-game pitcher" and my favorite "Sheets is not a winner". See the most recent game against Chicago when Sheets faced Zambrano when Big Z dominated and Sheets struggled. Zambrano is a winner. He's a big game pitcher. He is in the top five in wins over the last X number of years. Perception is reality after all.

 

Perception is that Sheets has been struggling since the All-Star break and aces should not do that during a pennant race. Zambrano would rarely pitch badly with an important game on the line right? Now don't misunderstand me. Zambrano is a very good pitcher and definitely ace caliber, but my point is that all aces struggle through stretches from time to time.

 

Zambrano since the break:

 

9 G 52.0 IP 33 R 32 ER 45 H 22 BB 36 K 1.29 WHIP 6.2 K/9 5.54 ERA but he is 3-2 since the break so it goes unnoticed.

 

Big Z was just one of the names thrown out there as being a winner and true ace so I thought I would throw that little fun fact to highlight the point that all aces struggle in stretches similar to what people were saying with C.C. in the beginning of the season. Sheets is a really underappreciated by many Brewer fans simply because of his overall W-L record. One needs to keep an open mind and not let personal feeling cloud judgement on a pitchers performance.

[rluzinski]

Hmm, there definitely is a discrepancy between THT and fangraphs.

 

You have to add a league constant to get FIP inline with ERA. I'd guess that Fangraphs doesn't calculate a separate constant for the AL and NL.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm uncomfortable being a Suppan apologist, but I don't see any trend that he is worsening.

 

Not necessarily now, but I think the point was that, with general aging, he shouldn't be expected to improve or even sustain more than he should be expected to slowly fade.

 

 

Signing Suppan served as notice to fans and MLB players the team was willing to add experienced veterans to fill holes...

 

And that's just fan overreaction. Imo signing Suppan was nothing more & nothing less than overpaying an average SP because that's where the market price had been set. I can say with almost complete certainty that no players looked around and said, 'Wow, the Brewers overpaid for Soup -- they're serious!'. What (imo) is much more likely is, 'Wow, the Brewers might overpay for overrated veteran players -- [Agent X], get on the phone to Melvin!' http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

The whole 'Wow -- we're not just signing stop-gaps anymore!' concept is odd to me, since the whole purpose of signing stop-gap types is to fill time when a team isn't competitive. When a team is contending, it seems logical to me that said team would acquire players that can help now beyond being a warm body, as opposed to not trying to improve the roster.

[logan82]

There is little doubt in my mind that our rotation without Sheets is much worse. I have little doubt Sheets will be worth whatever he is paid next year and the year after. My questions would be

 

1. How many games would the Brewers be expected to win without Sheets?

2. How many wins would Sheets add over whoever would be our 5th starter in each year of his contract?

3. At what point will Sheets start to lose velocity?(This is why not having his curve right all of last year bothers me)

4. Would we be able to trade Sheets after the first 2 years of the contract?

5. Would we be able to use the money from signing Sheets to add more wins with other players in the 3rd and 4th years of his contract?

I assume he will get at least 4 years. If he signs a 3 year contract and we don't match I will be upset. If we are likley to get minimal gain with that money in the 3rd and 4th years over Sheets I don't see why we shouldn't sign him. I feel nervous giving 20%+ of our payroll to one player in his 30's.

6. How much will making the playoffs impact our future TV contract?